Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Winnersaint]

Except a huge amount of Labour voters want brexit. They are the people who swung the vote, not the swivel-eyed loons in Surrey.

 

It's the lower paid or 'working class' - tradition Labour supporters that feel the effects of mass imigration, they are the people who have been ignored by all the main parties for year after year. Branded as racist by Labour politicians for daring to raise immigration as an issue. They voted Brexit despite all the warnings from rich business leaders and bankers - because they have **** all to lose. If they are ignored again then the main parties will get a kicking at the next general election.

 

I genuinely get that, but there is part of me which struggles with the whole protest vote idea.

This sums it up for me.

"Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education." Franklin D. Roosevelt

[Whitey Grandad]

I genuinely get that, but there is part of me which struggles with the whole protest vote idea.

This sums it up for me.

"Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education." Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

I found out recently that a friend of my wife voted leave because she never expected that side to win. I know somebody else who just fancied a change but didn't realise what it actually meant. I truly believe that a lot of people didn't think it mattered much either way. Not everybody considers the issues as deeply as we do.

[aintforever]

I genuinely get that, but there is part of me which struggles with the whole protest vote idea.

This sums it up for me.

"Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education." Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

Yeah, but if you are fed up with low wages, not being able to buy a house and sitting behind a queue of Polish every time you go to the doctors then a vote to stay the same is not going to help.

 

You might as well take the gamble if you have nothing to lose. It is the wise choice for them.

[Johnny Bognor]

Of course, Baldrick, in your little fantasy world anything is possible. You can dream up deals that don't exist or haven't been mooted and pretend that the UK dictated terms to the frogs and krauts and was able to have its cake and eat it. Why stop there? how about the Chinese entirely liberalise their financial sector and give the UK preferential access- that will do wonders for the balance of power in negotiations.

 

In your fantasy world, you're indeed a true visionary

You see, that's the problem with people like you, me old pedigree chump. Sit on the sidelines and snipe at people's ideas and suggestions.

 

This thread is about moving forward and I believe I have contributed to that discussion more than most, injecting ideas and possibilities as to what might or should happen.

 

The result is the result. But nothing is black and white. Moving forward means many different things to different people.

 

So Wesley (as in wesley snipes), rather than snipe, which let's face it, any idiot could do, why not stick your neck out, shake off the yolk of negativity and suggest how things might be going forward?

 

In the interests of debate, rather than petty point scoring, I would be genuinely interested to see how you think or want things to pan out.

Edited 26 July, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[Special K]

Except a huge amount of Labour voters want brexit. They are the people who swung the vote, not the swivel-eyed loons in Surrey.

 

It's the lower paid or 'working class' - tradition Labour supporters that feel the effects of mass imigration, they are the people who have been ignored by all the main parties for year after year. Branded as racist by Labour politicians for daring to raise immigration as an issue. They voted Brexit despite all the warnings from rich business leaders and bankers - because they have **** all to lose. If they are ignored again then the main parties will get a kicking at the next general election.

 

True enough. It's easier to sell a dream, even if it is based on lies, than it is for the privileged to convince someone who thinks their life is shyte, to believe that their ****ty life is better staying as it is.

[Johnny Bognor]

Baldrick, given that the FTSE 250 is still trading below its pre-referendum level, its not surprise that the BBC, a producer of news, not make-believe, isn't reporting that companies are adding billions just yet.

 

FTSE 250 now trading above pre-referendum level, me old pedigree chump... looking forward to the BBC headlines....

[Whitey Grandad]

FTSE 250 now trading above pre-referendum level, me old pedigree chump... looking forward to the BBC headlines....

 

Just think how high it would have been without the vote!

 

..and how is this now valued in Dollars?

[Goatboy]

Just think how high it would have been without the vote!

 

..and how is this now valued in Dollars?

 

Could have put money on this.

[Batman]

when is the big punishment budget that will save us from collapse?

[Whitey Grandad]

Could have put money on this.

 

Did you not detect the hint of sarcasm in there

[Verbal]

when is the big punishment budget that will save us from collapse?

 

Aside from the referendum, nothing's actually happened yet to cause the collapse. Cameron didn't press the nuclear Article 50 button on 24 June, as he promised he would (a broken promise, certainly, but a devilishly clever political move too). It's only when we're on the A50 road to hell that things will get seriously bad. As it stands, the once distinctly minority view that A50 won't happen any time soon has grown more widespread, and we seem to have settled into a period of uncertain certainty. There are, though, plenty of longer-term anxieties about the economy because of the vote, which will feed in to lower growth or even a recession. But the real collapse won't start until A50 is actually triggered.

 

In the meantime, interesting to note that the EU has appointed just about the most hostile and politically skilled negotiator available to handle the UK/EU split. The Three Buffoons are absolutely no match for Michel Barnier (BoJo can't handle detail, Davis hasn't a clue about what the rules of trade negotiation even are, and who the **** knows what Fox is doing, given that he can't even talk to anyone about bilateral in any substantive way until at least 2019).

 

So just wait - you'll get your economic crash and your emergency budget. It'll happen as soon as A50 gets triggered, and Barnier instantly knocks out the Three Buffoons' inevitable demand for access to the internal market without free movement.

 

No wonder the Tories are hoping to drag this out until after the 2020 election.

[Whitey Grandad]

when is the big punishment budget that will save us from collapse?

 

That's waiting until all the immigrants have been sent back and the NHS has its extra £350m a week and we get back this control that we are supposed to have lost and we can buy bendy bananas again. (sarcasm smiley thingy)

 

 

Can we please give up on all these silly remarks. We haven't left the EU yet by a long way and anybody who wants to make political capital out of petty point-scoring would do well to wait until we have a clearer view of the direction in whicjh we are heading. All that has happened so far is that there has been a vote and a wholesale change of government personnel and there have been reactions in the financial markets that mean nothing to the ordinary public. The £ is looking very sick it's looking unlikely that it will ever recover. For anything else we shall just have to wait until 6 months down the road when we shall have more accurate figures relating to economic activity. If we can avoid this slump turning into a recession then we shall be doing well.

[Whitey Grandad]

Aside from the referendum, nothing's actually happened yet to cause the collapse. Cameron didn't press the nuclear Article 50 button on 24 June, as he promised he would (a broken promise, certainly, but a devilishly clever political move too). It's only when we're on the A50 road to hell that things will get seriously bad. As it stands, the once distinctly minority view that A50 won't happen any time soon has grown more widespread, and we seem to have settled into a period of uncertain certainty. There are, though, plenty of longer-term anxieties about the economy because of the vote, which will feed in to lower growth or even a recession. But the real collapse won't start until A50 is actually triggered.

 

In the meantime, interesting to note that the EU has appointed just about the most hostile and politically skilled negotiator available to handle the UK/EU split. The Three Buffoons are absolutely no match for Michel Barnier (BoJo can't handle detail, Davis hasn't a clue about what the rules of trade negotiation even are, and who the **** knows what Fox is doing, given that he can't even talk to anyone about bilateral in any substantive way until at least 2019).

 

So just wait - you'll get your economic crash and your emergency budget. It'll happen as soon as A50 gets triggered, and Barnier instantly knocks out the Three Buffoons' inevitable demand for access to the internal market without free movement.

 

No wonder the Tories are hoping to drag this out until after the 2020 election.

That will be the Autumn Statement of course. The timing won't be an emergency but the contents may well be.

[Batman]

That's waiting until all the immigrants have been sent back and the NHS has its extra £350m a week and we get back this control that we are supposed to have lost and we can buy bendy bananas again. (sarcasm smiley thingy)

 

 

Can we please give up on all these silly remarks. We haven't left the EU yet by a long way and anybody who wants to make political capital out of petty point-scoring would do well to wait until we have a clearer view of the direction in whicjh we are heading. All that has happened so far is that there has been a vote and a wholesale change of government personnel and there have been reactions in the financial markets that mean nothing to the ordinary public. The £ is looking very sick it's looking unlikely that it will ever recover. For anything else we shall just have to wait until 6 months down the road when we shall have more accurate figures relating to economic activity. If we can avoid this slump turning into a recession then we shall be doing well.

 

does that mean you will stop being a complete drain about the whole thing until...you know, we get a clearer view of the direction in which we are heading?

[Whitey Grandad]

does that mean you will stop being a complete drain about the whole thing until...you know, we get a clearer view of the direction in which we are heading?

 

Are you talking to yourself again? I do it all the time; it's the only way I get intelligent responses

 

I generally respond to posts rather than randomly generating them. In the interests of balance, that sort of thing.

[SFC1906]

Interesting link

 

IMF admits disastrous love affair with the euro, apologises for the immolation of Greece - http://www.telegraph.co.uk

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/?campaign_id=A100&campaign_type=Email

[whelk]

Good news story all the Brexiters can feel proud of

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/ford-to-hike-car-prices-and-mulls-uk-plant-closures-in-wake-of-b/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter&utm_term=Autofeed#link_time=1469725654

 

Note from Telegraph not Guardian

 

Sure some entrepreneur will create replacement jobs in call centres so nothing to worry about.

[hutch]

Good news story all the Brexiters can feel proud of

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/ford-to-hike-car-prices-and-mulls-uk-plant-closures-in-wake-of-b/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter&utm_term=Autofeed#link_time=1469725654

 

Note from Telegraph not Guardian

 

Sure some entrepreneur will create replacement jobs in call centres so nothing to worry about.

Let's see how they whinge when we slap 20% duty on imports from Turkey.

 

This is far more to do with the crap management of Ford over the past three decades than Brexit. They decided to move all their car manufacturing offshore and sell imported cars in the UK at a time their competitors were doing the opposite. Now they complain that it's all the fault of the British voters.

 

Ford is a good example of what is wrong with many of the former US global corporations in the 21st century. They have a few too many Trump genes.

[buctootim]

Let's see how they whinge when we slap 20% duty on imports from Turkey.

 

This is far more to do with the crap management of Ford over the past three decades than Brexit. They decided to move all their car manufacturing offshore and sell imported cars in the UK at a time their competitors were doing the opposite. Now they complain that it's all the fault of the British voters.

 

Ford is a good example of what is wrong with many of the former US global corporations in the 21st century. They have a few too many Trump genes.

 

Wow. What a spectacularly dumb post. Machismo and jingoism, not normally cornerstones of a good inward investment policy. Fwiw Ford make engines in the UK for many of their models where the bodies are made overseas. It's an approach most car makers take.

[Special K]

http://cer.org.uk/insights/theresa-may-and-her-six-pack-difficult-deals

 

An interesting read on the possible deals the UK will have to strike, the likely stumbling blocks and the gargantuan task ahead for her Government.

[Wes Tender]

Let's see how they whinge when we slap 20% duty on imports from Turkey.

 

This is far more to do with the crap management of Ford over the past three decades than Brexit. They decided to move all their car manufacturing offshore and sell imported cars in the UK at a time their competitors were doing the opposite. Now they complain that it's all the fault of the British voters.

 

Ford is a good example of what is wrong with many of the former US global corporations in the 21st century. They have a few too many Trump genes.

 

They're just looking for an excuse to shut down their operations in the UK and relocate them to a lower labour cost area like they did with their Transit operation, financed by a very low interest loan from the European Investment Bank. The hypocrites had threatened to do that before the referendum, so nobody takes them seriously when they try to pretend that they will be taking this course of action because of Brexit. The British public ought to punish the bastards by boycotting their cars and vans.

[Wes Tender]

Wow. What a spectacularly dumb post. Machismo and jingoism, not normally cornerstones of a good inward investment policy. Fwiw Ford make engines in the UK for many of their models where the bodies are made overseas. It's an approach most car makers take.

 

You seem to have overlooked the part of the article that suggested that Ford were mulling over the possibility of moving their engine making out of the UK.

[buctootim]

You seem to have overlooked the part of the article that suggested that Ford were mulling over the possibility of moving their engine making out of the UK.

Im not surprised. They make 1,5million engines here, all for export. More than every other manufacturer combined. Why would you build in a country with a gyrating currency and uncertain trade and market access.

[Guided Missile]

Why would you build in a country with a gyrating currency and uncertain trade and market access.

What, like Turkey?

[buctootim]

What, like Turkey?

 

50 times the GDP of Germany

[Wes Tender]

What, like Turkey?

[buctootim]

What, like Turkey?

 

 

Whats funnier is that despite a coup and dictator for President Turkey has a stronger more stable currency than us post Brexit. #wegotourcountryback

 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=TRY&to=GBP&view=1Y

[Guided Missile]

50 times the GDP of Germany

You are on drugs...

[buctootim]

You are on drugs...

 

Um not really. I was quoting you. You've deleted the original howler, because you are less honest and brave than my cat - but its still evident thats what you said from this.

 

http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?56740-Post-EU-The-Way-Forward&p=2363059#post2363059

[Wes Tender]

Whats funnier is that despite a coup and dictator for President Turkey has a stronger more stable currency than us post Brexit. #wegotourcountryback

 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=TRY&to=GBP&view=1Y

 

When was the last time that we suffered a military coup? Was it perhaps the English Civil War?

 

The Turkish coup probably had the International Money markets thinking that it didn't make much difference whether it was Erdogan or some other bunch running the country for the five minutes or so when they had control.

 

As an aside, I'm really impressed that you possess an honest cat. That is infinitely preferable to having a dishonest one, like a cat burglar, for example.

[buctootim]

When was the last time that we suffered a military coup? Was it perhaps the English Civil War?

 

The Turkish coup probably had the International Money markets thinking that it didn't make much difference whether it was Erdogan or some other bunch running the country for the five minutes or so when they had control.

 

As an aside, I'm really impressed that you possess an honest cat. That is infinitely preferable to having a dishonest one, like a cat burglar, for example.

 

 

Still not understanding. Poor Wes.

1. The fact that Turkey's currency has been stronger and more stable than sterling despite them having a coup and us not having one simply emphasises how poorly we are viewed by the currency markets. It make it worse not better.

2. Turkey still has the same trade arrangements as when Ford made their investment. The UK's trade arrangements and prospects look less attractive and are far more uncertain than when Ford made their investments here.

[Guided Missile]

You've deleted the original howler, because you are less honest and brave than my cat.

No, I never posted that Deutsche Bank owed 50 times the GDP of Germany anywhere at anytime. It's a bank in the sh!t though and you and your cat will find out how much, sooner than you can smoke another joint.....

[Guided Missile]

Turkey, with a GDP by some estimates, about the same as London, but a better place to invest and build transits than the UK....

 

I guess there are less problems with unions there. If there's a strike, the government will shoot them, if the company asks nicely.

[Wes Tender]

Still not understanding. Poor Wes.

1. The fact that Turkey's currency has been stronger and more stable than sterling despite them having a coup and us not having one simply emphasises how poorly we are viewed by the currency markets. It make it worse not better.

2. Turkey still has the same trade arrangements as when Ford made their investment. The UK's trade arrangements and prospects look less attractive and are far more uncertain than when Ford made their investments here.

 

It is you who is demonstrating such a poor grasp of the situation, which is surprising given how intelligent you like to consider yourself. It is laughable you comparing the reactions to the fall in the value of Stirling because of Brexit to the value of Turkey's Lira because of the coup there. I'm waiting for your next bombshell, comparing the state of the Pound against the Zimbabwean dollar what with the uncertainty over Mugabe. The fact is, that the Pound being one of the World's greatest currencies, it is bound to be more affected in times of uncertainty than minor currencies.

 

I have already explained that what looked attractive to Ford, was low wage costs in Turkey and a very low interest loan from the European Investment Bank. Brexit is a handy excuse for them to dress up the relocation of their operations to cheap labour countries. From that perspective, Ford are less honest than your cat.

[buctootim]

No, I never posted that Deutsche Bank owed 50 times the GDP of Germany anywhere at anytime. It's a bank in the sh!t though and you and your cat will find out how much, sooner than you can smoke another joint.....

 

Actually apologies are due. It was Johnny Bognor. My bad.

http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?55274-EU-referendum&p=2356024#post2356024

[shurlock]

I bet Les is having pangs of buyer's remorse:

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/clarifications-corrections/693618/Correction-amazing-things-we-get-back-if-we-leave-EU

[Guided Missile]

Actually apologies are due. It was Johnny Bognor. My bad.

http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?55274-EU-referendum&p=2356024#post2356024

Fair play....

Johnny Bognor was probably thinking of the exposure of Deutsche Bank to the value of their derivatives, which I think are, at $75 trillion. As these derivatives are netted off, they don't really "owe" $75 trillion, they obviously have a surplus assets to cover these vast sums.

 

However, whenever something sounds complicated and regulators give up trying to understand this type of financial instrument, is the time to get worried. If you "owe" $75 trillion and have assets worth $75.5 trillion and tell some faceless bank regulator that a minor change in the value of your assets won't be a problem, then you can bet it will be a problem.

 

Wait until the end of today and the stress test results. Deutsche Bank will be told to re-capitalise. Then we'll find out how much sh!t they are in.....

[Window Cleaner]

Well I see that US and Eurozone economic growth in the second quarter are both disappointingly low, particularly in France where there was no growth at all. Must be the fault of brexit right, even if it was only voted 7 days before the end of that quarter.

[Guided Missile]

Get the popcorn out at about 9:00PM tonight. Read all about it here...

 

Nothing to worry about, though. Blame Brexit....

[shurlock]

Well I see that US and Eurozone economic growth in the second quarter are both disappointingly low, particularly in France where there was no growth at all. Must be the fault of brexit right, even if it was only voted 7 days before the end of that quarter.

 

Nice try; but as I've pointed out before, the global economy is far from a picture of health -now is the worst time to be embarking on cavalier experiments like Brexit that only increase uncertainty and the UK's exposure to shocks.

Edited 29 July, 2016 by shurlock

[buctootim]

Fair play....

Johnny Bognor was probably thinking of the exposure of Deutsche Bank to the value of their derivatives, which I think are, at $75 trillion. As these derivatives are netted off, they don't really "owe" $75 trillion, they obviously have a surplus assets to cover these vast sums.

 

However, whenever something sounds complicated and regulators give up trying to understand this type of financial instrument, is the time to get worried. If you "owe" $75 trillion and have assets worth $75.5 trillion and tell some faceless bank regulator that a minor change in the value of your assets won't be a problem, then you can bet it will be a problem.

 

Wait until the end of today and the stress test results. Deutsche Bank will be told to re-capitalise. Then we'll find out how much sh!t they are in.....

 

I agree they have a big problem - but its going to be tens of billions, not tens of trillions. More of the order of the RBS / Lloyds cleanup than 7 times the GDP of the EU.

[buctootim]

I agree they have a big problem - but its going to be tens of billions, not tens of trillions. More of the order of the RBS / Lloyds cleanup than 7 times the GDP of the EU.

 

Deutsche hasn't come out that badly

http://storage.eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/1532819/2016-EU-wide-stress-test-Results.pdf

[Johnny Bognor]

Actually apologies are due. It was Johnny Bognor. My bad.

http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?55274-EU-referendum&p=2356024#post2356024

LOL I did notice that but kept quiet.

 

It will teach me for reading zero hedge. But the bank is still in a mess...

 

Multi billion losses, multiple fines for rigging markets, suicides of executives, complete collapse of share price.. this comes after two attempts at recapitalisation.

 

Ultimately it won't be allowed to fail, despite the EU's rules on bailing out banks. You see they make rules, then don't stick to them when it suits... it's the EU way....

 

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

Edited 31 July, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[John B]

Yeah, but if you are fed up with low wages, not being able to buy a house and sitting behind a queue of Polish every time you go to the doctors then a vote to stay the same is not going to help.

 

You might as well take the gamble if you have nothing to lose. It is the wise choice for them.

 

The only problem with that scenario is that it is very likely they will be worse off with BREXIT and wait longer for doctors appointments as less money will be available for the NHS.

 

If they had voted Labour or Lib Dem in GE 2015 they probably would have been better off.

[Guided Missile]

Last week Deutsche Bank, the biggest bank in Germany, said that its second-quarter earnings had dropped 98 per cent compared with last year, while revenues were down by 20 per cent. John Cryan, its co-chief executive, warned that it may have to extend its restructuring programme.

[moonraker]

Worrying about German banks wont deflect attention from what is currently happening at home, the preverbal chickens are coming home to roost; economic outlook deteriorating with an ever increasing probability of a recession and falling business confidence, no plan and no idea how to actually negotiate withdrawal from the EU, additional QE, more interest rate cuts, increased hate crime (just a coincidence?), Legal confusion on who, how and when Article 50 can be triggered, still the suns still shinning (just) and we have control !!!

[Wes Tender]

Worrying about German banks wont deflect attention from what is currently happening at home, the preverbal chickens are coming home to roost; economic outlook deteriorating with an ever increasing probability of a recession and falling business confidence, no plan and no idea how to actually negotiate withdrawal from the EU, additional QE, more interest rate cuts, increased hate crime (just a coincidence?), Legal confusion on who, how and when Article 50 can be triggered, still the suns still shinning (just) and we have control !!!

As you say, the sun is shining, we do have more control, the interest rate cuts would indeed be a bonus for many, there are a lot of positive noises coming from many successful countries wanting to do mutually beneficial trade deals with us, there are many reasons for some positive optimism. Meanwhile if you choose to look at the negatives in remaining within the EU that are starting to surface, then it looks as if it will increasingly be the case that we have chosen to leave at just the right time,

[TwoPints]

Not much to be optimistic about to be honest. Keep your eye on this site. Some of the the news on here might have gone unnoticed :

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/special-reports/britains-brexit-question

 

Sent from my SM-T810 using Tapatalk

[moonraker]

As you say, the sun is shining, we do have more control, the interest rate cuts would indeed be a bonus for many, there are a lot of positive noises coming from many successful countries wanting to do mutually beneficial trade deals with us, there are many reasons for some positive optimism. Meanwhile if you choose to look at the negatives in remaining within the EU that are starting to surface, then it looks as if it will increasingly be the case that we have chosen to leave at just the right time,

 

Nothing I wrote referred to negatives in the EU but has everything to do with the self inflicted uncertainty of the Brexit vote. As usual you completely ignore any of the points I made, how do you view the worsening economic situation that has its root in the Brexit vote, a simple good or bad will suffice? Exactly what control have we got back, we are still in the EU and the total chaos surrounding how we will leave is anything but being in control, what is it like with your head in the sand?

[John B]

As you say, the sun is shining, we do have more control, the interest rate cuts would indeed be a bonus for many, there are a lot of positive noises coming from many successful countries wanting to do mutually beneficial trade deals with us, there are many reasons for some positive optimism. Meanwhile if you choose to look at the negatives in remaining within the EU that are starting to surface, then it looks as if it will increasingly be the case that we have chosen to leave at just the right time,

 

Independen economist's backed up by similar analysis in the Treasury and elsewhere, is that Brexit would not just cause a short term economic downturn: cutting wages and increasing unemployment for just a year or two. By making it harder to trade with our immediate neighbours it will reduce UK trade overall, and the evidence suggests that this will permanently reduce people’s living standards yes very optimistic