Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Probably the best option but it will lead to a lot of resentment. Basically means that we’re stuck in the EU for good wether we like it or not. The only way a second refurendum would be palatable for me would be if the EU make some sort of concession on free movement.

 

Pah, the people who voted leave are full of resentment anyway - it's that chip on their shoulder about the fact they think they should be doing better that caused this in the first place.

[CB Fry]

Probably the best option but it will lead to a lot of resentment. Basically means that we’re stuck in the EU for good wether we like it or not. The only way a second refurendum would be palatable for me would be if the EU make some sort of concession on free movement.

What the EU should do is put some actual freaking rules down to control this free movement.

 

People should only be allowed to stay for a defined length of time - like three months or something. They should all be forced to prove they have the means to support themselves while here and they should get a job. If they haven't got a job in three months then they should leave.

 

That's what I think the EU should do. Something like that.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

What the EU should do is put some actual freaking rules down to control this free movement.

 

People should only be allowed to stay for a defined length of time - like three months or something. They should all be forced to prove they have the means to support themselves while here and they should get a job. If they haven't got a job in three months then they should leave.

 

That's what I think the EU should do. Something like that.

 

You're onto something there CB - I think that could actually work!!

[aintforever]

What the EU should do is put some actual freaking rules down to control this free movement.

 

People should only be allowed to stay for a defined length of time - like three months or something. They should all be forced to prove they have the means to support themselves while here and they should get a job. If they haven't got a job in three months then they should leave.

 

That's what I think the EU should do. Something like that.

 

Or any country that feels like it is suffering from the effects of mass uncontrolled immigration should be able to decide on their own immigration policy that suits them best.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Or any country that feels like it is suffering from the effects of mass uncontrolled immigration should be able to decide on their own immigration policy that suits them best.

 

If we were suffering from immigration, why would we top up with people from outside the EU?

 

What you're proposing is that each country should be able to pick and choose which rules they abide by...that sounds achievable.

 

I'd be the country that doesn't pay into the EU but gets loads of money. Which country would you be?

[aintforever]

 

I'd be the country that doesn't pay into the EU but gets loads of money.

 

Poland?

[shurlock]

What the EU should do is put some actual freaking rules down to control this free movement.

 

People should only be allowed to stay for a defined length of time - like three months or something. They should all be forced to prove they have the means to support themselves while here and they should get a job. If they haven't got a job in three months then they should leave.

 

That's what I think the EU should do. Something like that.

 

Precisely why we need to take back control.

[trousers]

I think you'd be rather surprised if you knew who Verbal was

 

Bit of a punt but I'm thinking Bobby Davro. Am I warm?

[shurlock]

Poland?

 

Bit more complicated than that little fella. But why am I surprised by that.

 

In return for the 'loads of money' Poland, it needs to play by all the rules of the single market. In other words, it is required to open its product, service and capital markets to companies in Western Europe which are invariably more productive and competitive than local firms -all of which is good for UK plc.

 

Finally one might conclude that these transfers are well worth the financial and strategic price for healing a fractured continent post the Cold War but these considerations tend to be lost on Brexiteers with a complacent, thick-as-pigs*t understanding of history.

Edited 29 November, 2018 by shurlock

[whelk]

That Wetherspoons fella is a right cock. I like my £1.99 pint though

[shurlock]

That Wetherspoons fella is a right cock. I like my £1.99 pint though

 

 

#properdrinkers

[whelk]

It’s a desperate situation. I lean towards Labour but most of them are goons with little integrity. Used to watch BBC QT and good points could be made by all main parties. Tonight everyone seems hopeless. So uninspiring to get kids interested in politics.

[whelk]

 

#properdrinkers

 

Top left is how I imagine LD

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Top left is how I imagine LD

 

That's Les Reed isn't it?

[Orange]

But how is leaving the EU going to stop that? Last year we saw a massive fall in the number of migrants from the EU. Do you know what happened? We replaced that with people from non-EU countries as we had to cover the slack.

 

The situation you are talking about is not going to stop because of Brexit - because the economy and population drives the need for working people. The problem starts at home where we have to replace people unwilling to work in our population, and the massive ageing population, to ensure the economy and basic services keep functioning.

 

If you think we're going to stop inviting people over here to work, then you are going to be sorely disappointed. The same number of skilled workers are still going to be needed, and because of the poor investment in public services, those people are still going to come from overseas.

 

What you need to do is deal with the source of the problem, and not with the result. The problem is you've been fooled that where the migrants come in is the source, when in actual fact it is WAY before that.

 

Yes and our overall migration figures have gone down because of that decline. The point is for as long as we're in the EU we can't do anything about it, other than discriminate massively against non-EU citizens to try and counter-act endless low-skilled EU migration. And with the migrant-crisis, all the millions the EU have welcomed in, will then have EU passports after a while, and then be able to come to the UK. But seems you're on the same page as the EU with regards to long-term population replacement.

 

Why are you so against us treating everyone across the board equally, on merit and ties to the UK?

 

Classic remainer too, anyone who has a different point a view to you has been 'fooled', 'duped'...

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Yes and our overall migration figures have gone down because of that decline. The point is for as long as we're in the EU we can't do anything about it, other than discriminate massively against non-EU citizens to try and counter-act endless low-skilled EU migration. And with the migrant-crisis, all the millions the EU have welcomed in, will then have EU passports after a while, and then be able to come to the UK. But seems you're on the same page as the EU with regards to long-term population replacement.

 

Why are you so against us treating everyone across the board equally, on merit and ties to the UK?

 

Classic remainer too, anyone who has a different point a view to you has been 'fooled', 'duped'...

 

How much have our migration figures fallen then in the last year then? 11k. But that is also 24k up on 2016. So is it really a decline we're seeing, or just a year to year variance?

 

Here is the difference between the years over the last 10.

 

2018: -11k

2017: +24k

2016: -84k

2015: +14k

2014: +109k

2013: +32k

2012: -28k

2011: -51k

2010: +23k

 

Here is the breakdown of EU and Non-EU migrants over the last 10 years as well:

 

 

What do those figures show you? I'm really interested to see how you interpret them. Do you also know the percentage of EU migrants that come in that are low-skilled?

 

However, what confuses me most about your posts, is that you started off by saying we're letting too many people in, and that was the reason for your issue with immigration, but now you're saying that your issue is that we are discriminating massively against non-EU immigrants. So which is it? In addition to this, you seem to have an issue with those caught up in the migrant crisis. Now, can you remind me please, are these migrants EU, or Non-EU?

[RedArmy]

There's been 3 votes on this subject.

 

The country put the conservatives into power when their manifesto clearly stated they would hold a referendum.

 

We had the referendum and leave won.

 

And there's been a general election since the vote when the country had the opportunity to vote in a party who would stop Brexit.

 

3 chances to stop this and all failed. So either the country doesn't want to remain as much as some would have you believe. Or it's not important enough for some to get out and vote.

 

How many more votes do you want? Shall we hold a weekly vote until the cut off date? Or are we now playing next goal wins rules?

[Cabbage_Face]

May hinting at 2nd Ref. Good news.

[Plastic]

I'm afraid that your powers of reasoning are faulty if you draw either conclusion. What is indicative of Fox's position, along with Gove's and indeed Mordaunt's, is that five of the remaining pro-Brexit cabinet ministers are meeting to try and get May to change some of the Chequers deal.

 

"The price could be the loss of access to the European market which, as I say, is 44% of Britain’s exports. That’s a lot of jobs, a lot of profits. The government is not there to do what we want. We’re there to do what’s in the national interest.”

 

Fox said he believed cabinet members would vote for the deal and warned that those who do not “won’t be members of the cabinet”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/30/liam-fox-backs-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-ahead-of-key-commons-vote

 

Hmmm...

Edited 30 November, 2018 by Plastic

[Orange]

How much have our migration figures fallen then in the last year then? 11k. But that is also 24k up on 2016. So is it really a decline we're seeing, or just a year to year variance?

 

Here is the difference between the years over the last 10.

 

2018: -11k

2017: +24k

2016: -84k

2015: +14k

2014: +109k

2013: +32k

2012: -28k

2011: -51k

2010: +23k

 

Here is the breakdown of EU and Non-EU migrants over the last 10 years as well:

 

 

What do those figures show you? I'm really interested to see how you interpret them. Do you also know the percentage of EU migrants that come in that are low-skilled?

 

However, what confuses me most about your posts, is that you started off by saying we're letting too many people in, and that was the reason for your issue with immigration, but now you're saying that your issue is that we are discriminating massively against non-EU immigrants. So which is it? In addition to this, you seem to have an issue with those caught up in the migrant crisis. Now, can you remind me please, are these migrants EU, or Non-EU?

 

They are currently non-EU. But given time will be granted EU citizenship, and thus British if we were to stay. The British people saw the Merkel and co's approach to it , and didn't want to be in the hands of these people's agenda, or incompetence.

 

I'm not sure what I'm meant to interpret. That our government hasn't got a hold on non-EU immigration? Non-EU migration should be higher than EU migration. But you can see from 2011 how we clamped down on non-EU immigration to compensate for the influx from within the EU. Bulgaria/Romania accounting for a lot of that (Farage was mocked for saying that would happen). But i presume you think they were all highly skilled tech entrepreneurs?

 

And It's not that confusing. I think it's too high to be sustainable in the long term, and would like to see it come down. But contrary to what you like to characterise, like most people I don't want to shut the doors. We just need to have a very selective policy that judges on what someone can bring to the UK, what connections you have (partners etc) and your wealth. A lot of people have a gripe that even someone getting married to a Brit who is non-EU, will have a a long costly process getting a visa, but we have to accept tens of thousands of low-skilled workers from southern and eastern europe.

[Wes Tender]

"The price could be the loss of access to the European market which, as I say, is 44% of Britain’s exports. That’s a lot of jobs, a lot of profits. The government is not there to do what we want. We’re there to do what’s in the national interest.”

 

Fox said he believed cabinet members would vote for the deal and warned that those who do not “won’t be members of the cabinet”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/30/liam-fox-backs-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-ahead-of-key-commons-vote

 

Hmmm...

 

The phrasing of loss of access to the European market is misleading. Firstly, it is trading with the EU, not the European market. Secondly, anybody trading with the EU has access to the single market either under WTO terms or a FTA. Whereas Remoaners are happy to bandy about this figure of 44% of our exports, hoping that the less intelligent voters will think that a large percentage of it will be lost, I can't recall anybody forecasting what percentage of it might be at risk. Neither can I recall anybody predicting how much of the EU's trade surplus will be at risk if we left under WTO terms. I suspect that any loss to us will be really quite small and much of it replaced through other markets outside of Europe. But as Fox points out, forecasts for the economy in the various scenarios of how we leave or don't leave from the Treasury and the BoE are wildly, almost comically exaggerated.

[Wes Tender]

There's been 3 votes on this subject.

 

The country put the conservatives into power when their manifesto clearly stated they would hold a referendum.

 

We had the referendum and leave won.

 

And there's been a general election since the vote when the country had the opportunity to vote in a party who would stop Brexit.

 

3 chances to stop this and all failed. So either the country doesn't want to remain as much as some would have you believe. Or it's not important enough for some to get out and vote.

 

How many more votes do you want? Shall we hold a weekly vote until the cut off date? Or are we now playing next goal wins rules?

 

They want as many votes as are needed to return the result they want, i.e. to stay in the EU. Once that has been achieved, they will say that it was a democratic decision that cannot be overturned. When there was the original referendum in 1975, the losers didn't immediately call for a "peoples vote" a couple of years later, they buckled down and accepted it and it took over 40 years to get another say. Despite subsequent treaties totally changing the nature of what joining the Common Market meant, no referenda were allowed on any of those treaties. Now, even though we haven't even left yet, politicians and the establishment are clambouring for another referendum, claiming all sorts of spurious reasons for it.

 

Frankly, those that seek another referendum so soon after the last one are beneath contempt. They aren't democrats, they are unprincipled hypocrites.

[Guided Missile]

Frankly, those that seek another referendum so soon after the last one are beneath contempt. They aren't democrats, they are unprincipled hypocrites.

 

I predict a riot...

[Guided Missile]

May hinting at 2nd Ref. Good news.

Not quite, numbnuts. Maybe a second Commons vote...

[shurlock]

The phrasing of loss of access to the European market is misleading. Firstly, it is trading with the EU, not the European market. Secondly, anybody trading with the EU has access to the single market either under WTO terms or a FTA. Whereas Remoaners are happy to bandy about this figure of 44% of our exports, hoping that the less intelligent voters will think that a large percentage of it will be lost, I can't recall anybody forecasting what percentage of it might be at risk. Neither can I recall anybody predicting how much of the EU's trade surplus will be at risk if we left under WTO terms. I suspect that any loss to us will be really quite small and much of it replaced through other markets outside of Europe. But as Fox points out, forecasts for the economy in the various scenarios of how we leave or don't leave from the Treasury and the BoE are wildly, almost comically exaggerated.

 

Hello Les. I thought you were taking a break and there was nothing more to discuss until the vote on the 11th. That was your excuse for not responding to my earlier post. Fancy another try pal?

[Lord Duckhunter]

They want as many votes as are needed to return the result they want, i.e. to stay in the EU. Once that has been achieved, they will say that it was a democratic decision that cannot be overturned. When there was the original referendum in 1975, the losers didn't immediately call for a "peoples vote" a couple of years later, they buckled down and accepted it and it took over 40 years to get another say. Despite subsequent treaties totally changing the nature of what joining the Common Market meant, no referenda were allowed on any of those treaties. Now, even though we haven't even left yet, politicians and the establishment are clambouring for another referendum, claiming all sorts of spurious reasons for it.

 

Frankly, those that seek another referendum so soon after the last one are beneath contempt. They aren't democrats, they are unprincipled hypocrites.

 

Nail on head.

 

They also know that once out,the British people will have absolutely no intention of re entering the racket. All their pony about job losses & recession will be shown to be just that, pony, as the British economy reinvents and reinvigorates itself. Whilst the Euro zone continues to go down the pan and betray its youth. They are little Europeans, blinkered conservatives, scared of change.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shurlock]

Nail on head.

 

They also know that once out,the British people will have absolutely no intention of re entering the racket. All their pony about job losses & recession will be shown to be just that, pony, as the British economy reinvents and reinvigorates itself. Whilst the Euro zone continues to go down the pan and betray its youth. They are little Europeans, blinkered conservatives, scared of change.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

The UK isn’t part of the Eurozone pal.

[Plastic]

The phrasing of loss of access to the European market is misleading. Firstly, it is trading with the EU, not the European market. Secondly, anybody trading with the EU has access to the single market either under WTO terms or a FTA.

 

So you disagree with Liam Fox, and I assume since he has now confirmed he will hold-his-nose and vote for the proposed deal, he is a brexit traitor?

 

Which MP will be the new Brexiteer pin-up then? I can’t keep up.

[Plastic]

The UK isn’t part of the Eurozone pal.

 

I like how he manages to get the word pony into every post though. It’s cute.

[shurlock]

So you disagree with Liam Fox, and I assume since he has now confirmed he will hold-his-nose and vote for the proposed deal, he is a brexit traitor?

 

Which MP will be the new Brexiteer pin-up then? I can’t keep up.

 

 

Sorry not him. He’s on Les and JJ’s watch list.

 

This lot:

 

 

#reinventedandreinvigorated

 

[Wes Tender]

Hello Les. I thought you were taking a break and there was nothing more to discuss until the vote on the 11th. That was your excuse for not responding to my earlier post. Fancy another try pal?

 

No thanks. I'll pass on your kind offer of a bout of patronising and infantile ripostes from you, if you don't mind.

[Wes Tender]

The UK isn’t part of the Eurozone pal.

 

Did he say it was? No, I didn't think so.

[shurlock]

No thanks. I'll pass on your kind offer of a bout of patronising and infantile ripostes from you, if you don't mind.

 

It was a list of facts Les, based on trade and tariff data. I was simply asking how they squared with your assertions. Fair enough if you don’t feel equipped or informed enough to respond pal.

[buctootim]

It was a list of facts Les, based on trade and tariff data. I was simply asking how they squared with your assertions. Fair enough if you don’t feel equipped or informed enough to respond pal.

 

Les only does autonomic

[Wade Garrett]

 

Why anyone would want to be part of this I'll never know.

[shurlock]

This is a UN initiative little fella.

Edited 2 December, 2018 by shurlock

[badgerx16]

This is a UN initiative little fella.

 

Indeed, and the link that WG posted is merely the opening couple of minutes of a speech that is actually against the UN Global Compact for Migration;

 

 

This is the EU press release ;

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-6417_en.htm

"It includes concrete actions that will help States to reduce irregular migration, for example through enhanced cooperation on addressing the drivers of migration, fighting trafficking in human beings and smuggling of migrants, managing borders and facilitating return"

"The Global Compact on Migration is not legally binding. Therefore, no legal obligations arise under domestic or international law for participating States."

“The Global Compact reaffirms the sovereign right of States to determine their national migration policy and their prerogative to govern migration within their jurisdiction, in conformity with international law.”

"The Global Compact aims at improving cooperation on international migration. It does not encourage migration, nor discourage it."

 

An the UK is committed to signing the Compact;

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1053064/United-nations-Global-Compact-for-Safe-Orderly-and-Regular-Migration-Alistair-Burt-italy

“As a leading voice in the negotiations, the UK Government secured positive outcomes in the final text which clearly support the Prime Minister’s main objectives as set out in her speech to the United Nations General Assembly.”

He added: “This includes a clear differentiation between refugees and migrants; the recognition of a state’s right to control their borders and proposals to help states build capacity in this area; and an explicit acknowledgement of states’ responsibility to accept the return of their nationals who no longer have the right to remain elsewhere.”

[Guided Missile]

...and with it, the grand EU experiment.

 

Well, son, it wasn't just the shock of the second largest economy in the EU leaving the trade bloc without a deal, it was the unsustainable debts owed by Spain and Italy to the German ECB, that they will never be able to repay. Brexit was just the beginning of the collapse of the house of cards, followed by the Deutsche Bank scandal. To make it easier to understand, I've drawn a picture below that should explain it:

 

Luckily your Dad shorted the euro at Xmas 2018, which is why we are very rich, now...God bless America and Donald Trump.

[Wade Garrett]

This is a UN initiative little fella.

 

My apologies, I didn’t realise. All the same, it is a ridiculous initiative. Since when did the UN become the enemy of free speech?

 

Not too sure about ‘little fella’. Makes you sound like a complete w@nker.

[Tamesaint]

...and with it, the grand EU experiment.

 

Well, son, it wasn't just the shock of the second largest economy in the EU leaving the trade bloc without a deal, it was the unsustainable debts owed by Spain and Italy to the German ECB, that they will never be able to repay. Brexit was just the beginning of the collapse of the house of cards, followed by the Deutsche Bank scandal. To make it easier to understand, I've drawn a picture below that should explain it:

 

Luckily your Dad shorted the euro at Xmas 2018, which is why we are very rich, now...God bless America and Donald Trump.

 

I think you are rather obsessed.

 

At exactly the same time as the football club you purport to follow sacks their manager , your thoughts are on yet another of your tedious diatribes on the euro. The mark of a true jihadist.

[Guided Missile]

I think you are rather obsessed with me.

 

 

At exactly the same time as the football club you purport to follow sacks their manager, your thoughts are on yet another of my tedious diatribes on the euro. The mark of a true troll.

[Window Cleaner]

I think you are rather obsessed with me.

 

 

At exactly the same time as the football club you purport to follow sacks their manager, your thoughts are on yet another of my tedious diatribes on the euro. The mark of a true troll.

 

Well tbh Saints sacking their manager is pretty routine these days.

[Tamesaint]

I think you are rather obsessed with me.

 

 

At exactly the same time as the football club you purport to follow sacks their manager, your thoughts are on yet another of my tedious diatribes on the euro. The mark of a true troll.

 

Nice to see that even you agree that your diatribes are tedious.

[buctootim]

...and with it, the grand EU experiment.

 

Well, son, it wasn't just the shock of the second largest economy in the EU leaving the trade bloc without a deal, it was the unsustainable debts owed by Spain and Italy to the German ECB, that they will never be able to repay. Brexit was just the beginning of the collapse of the house of cards, followed by the Deutsche Bank scandal. To make it easier to understand, I've drawn a picture below that should explain it:

 

Luckily your Dad shorted the euro at Xmas 2018, which is why we are very rich, now...God bless America and Donald Trump.

You're quoting as evidence a backwoods salesman with no economics background? The number 2 in a company of three? ffs, your posts get more out there every day. https://www.sitkapacific.com/bios/

 

I see Deutsche bank have racked up another £1.5 billion profit so far this year and beat Barclays and Llloyds in the stress tests. Still only a matter of time before they bankrupt the EU, destroy the euro, kidnap your kids and cast them down into the vortex of eternal despair. Maybe you could ask Mish about it?

 

FWIW Italian debt as a percentage of GDP has stopped growing and slightly declined in 2017 at 132%. Not good obviously but nowhere near as bad as two of the largest three economies in the world - Japan 252% and China on 304% according to the IIF

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/chinas-debt-surpasses-300-percent-of-gdp-iif-says-raising-doubts-over-yellens-crisis-remarks.html

Edited 3 December, 2018 by buctootim

[Guided Missile]

You're quoting as evidence a backwoods salesman with no economics background? The number 2 in a company of three? ffs, your posts get more out there every day.

https://www.sitkapacific.com/bios/ I see Deutsche bank have racked up another £1.5 billion profit so far this year and beat Barclays and Llloyds in the stress tests. Still only a matter of time before they suck the EU down into the vortex of eternal despair. Maybe you could ask Mitch about it?

 

FWIW Italian debt as a percentage of GDP has stopped growing and slightly declined in 2017

FWIW, you obviously don't have a clue what Target2 debt is and the deep sh!t the Italian economy is in, nor the Germans that have helped pile their debt mountain.

 

Troubling as a 130 percent public-debt-to-GDP ratio might be, there are two reasons to think that the official debt figures understate the seriousness of Italy’s public debt problem. The first is that Italy’s official debt statistics exclude the Bank of Italy’s approximately 400 billion euros debtor position in the European Central Bank’s Target 2 clearance mechanism. Including the Bank of Italy’s Target 2 liabilities would take the country’s public-debt-to-GDP ratio to around 160 percent, or to the highest in the last 100 years.

 

Oh, and Deutsche Bank beating Barclays and Llloyds in stress tests as evidence of what fine shape the bank is in? You haven't got a clue but their shareholders have:

 

 

 

Investors in Deutsche Bank are concerned that the criminal investigation into the suspected money laundering activities of the lender’s wealth management unit will make it harder for chief executive Christian Sewing to execute his crucial turnround agenda. Two days of raids on Deutsche Bank’s Frankfurt headquarters on Thursday and Friday that included Mr Sewing’s office sent its share price to a new all-time low and increased the pressure on the chief executive as well as on Deutsche’s chief regulatory officer, Sylvie Matherat.

[Verbal]

Oh, and Deutsche Bank beating Barclays and Llloyds in stress tests as evidence of what fine shape the bank is in? You haven't got a clue but their shareholders have:

 

Not this again, JJ. How many times have you predicted the demise of Deutsche Bank? And the Euro? And Italy? Ad nauseum.

 

You're a kind of one-man anti-hedge fund - a reliable barometer only so long as everyone thinks the exact opposite of what you predict.

[shurlock]

Any tips for the pound JJ

[buctootim]

Any tips for the pound JJ

 

Pound Sterling "Worst Currency to Hold" into Year-End, Takes a Hammering vs. Dollar and Euro as Market Gears up for Brexit Bill Failure

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/10459-gbp-worst-currency-to-hold-vs-eur-and-usd-into-year-end

 

We shouldn't laugh, but hey.....

[Nolan]

Predictions are great.

 

https://www.marke****ch.com/story/british-pound-could-hit-history-making-dollar-parity-by-end-of-2016-2016-06-27

 

Market watch in the url... Without the space

[buctootim]

 

Why anyone would want to be part of this I'll never know.

Better stay in the EU then - they're opposed, only Britian and two others want to sign up

https://admin.express.co.uk/news/world/1053577/migration-law-rejected-european-union-united-nations-new-policies-human-rights