Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Verbal]

What the politicians don't get yet is that most of the people who voted out, voted out of the EU not a cobbled up arrangement. If Theresa May doesn't want to be leader of the opposition she'd better get that sooner rather than later. We can trade at whatever terms are negotiated but the rest is a red line. Out means out. The Leave voters are watching carefully and any attempt at a fudge will end in tears for the Conservatives. A majority of Conservatives voted to leave and will desert them.

 

What a weird kipper fantasy. You're saying that the Tories, with 330 seats in the Commons, face instant and certain defeat from the leaderless UKIP, with their one (rather liberal for UKIP) MP. And you're saying this because May would somehow have failed to deliver on a question that was never actually in the referendum, despite your (putting it politely) nativist magical thinking leading you to think it was.

 

You also seem to have completely ignored that some of the leading Brexiteers, including the great hero BoJo, explicitly offered the Norway model as a way to go - that is, full membership of the EEA, with full access to the single market. Whether you like it or not, and should it ever happen, that counts as a withdrawal from the EU. It just so happens that to have that access we will be required to sign up to the 'four freedoms' (one of which is essential if the British economy is not to be trashed - freedom of movement of services, including passporting rights). Another one is freedom of movement of people, which may have certain 'brakes' applied, but which will remain a key red line for the EU.

 

I don't doubt that what Matthew Parris I think aptly calls 'headbangers' - including you and a perennial awkward squad on the right fringes of the Tory party - will scweam and scweam that this is not what you wanted, and you have been at least consistent in making your silly ultimatums.

 

But the reality is that May has far more pressing electoral problems than the headbangers and those further out on the nativist fringes. She has to steer away from a constitutional crisis to keep the Scots and others on board (and it won't be easy to resist a second Scots independence referendum on such a slim majority), and she has to steer a way around huge pressure from British business, who frankly will be screaming much more loudly and effectively than you if we have to spend the next x number of years digging our way back into the largest single market in the world.

 

So either give up the fantasy or go and find something to bang your head against. You aren't going to get your way.

[Johnny Bognor]

Or with another slant on it, we already pay the lowest proportion of national income of any of the 28 countries in the EU. Im sure they'll be queuing up to give us an even better deal.

 

Their contribution per capita is about to go up substantially if we go... £40 per head per annum as an average... not that the greeks, spanish, italians, potuguese etc have **** loads of cash lying around

[shurlock]

Their contribution per capita is about to go up substantially if we go... £40 per head per annum as an average... not that the greeks, spanish, italians, potuguese etc have **** loads of cash lying around

 

You realise that the UK will still have to pay a substantial contribution into the EU budget if it wants access to the single market.

[Whitey Grandad]

I voted Conservative. The Conservative majority grass roots is Eurosceptic or more to the point don't want the EU at any price. The Politicians got it wrong over the referendum and many lost their jobs including the PM, make the same mistake again and ignoring the grassroots Conservative vote will lead to a mass defection to UKIP to really get out. Liberal and Labour voters don't get the ill feeling that there is amongst Conservatives towards the politicians and the EU. The Express, Sun and Mail will reinforce that feeling if there is any left wing attempt to subvert the referendum decision.

 

I too voted Conservative. I don't know where you get your misconceptions about the grass roots being Eurosceptic but I know that I, and many others, will never vote Conservative again if we submit to such rabid xenophobia.

[Lord Duckhunter]

You realise that the UK will still have to pay a substantial contribution into the EU budget if it wants access to the single market.

 

How much does Canada pay in?

[Johnny Bognor]

You realise that the UK will still have to pay a substantial contribution into the EU budget if it wants access to the single market.

I've already suggested that as it is part if negotiations. The Guardian article I posted discussed it...so yes I do.

 

But if we don't have a deal, 500m people are going to have to make up £40 per head

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

[John B]

What the politicians don't get yet is that most of the people who voted out, voted out of the EU not a cobbled up arrangement. If Theresa May doesn't want to be leader of the opposition she'd better get that sooner rather than later. We can trade at whatever terms are negotiated but the rest is a red line. Out means out. The Leave voters are watching carefully and any attempt at a fudge will end in tears for the Conservatives. A majority of Conservatives voted to leave and will desert them.

 

I am pleased that Mrs May is trying to find the best way to get out of the EU instead of opinionated people who have little idea of the ramifications of the UK not being in the single market

[John B]

I too voted Conservative. I don't know where you get your misconceptions about the grass roots being Eurosceptic but I know that I, and many others, will never vote Conservative again if we submit to such rabid xenophobia.

 

And of course most Tory MPs were for remain and it has been the policy of the Tories to be a member of the EU for almost 60 years

[CB Fry]

What the politicians don't get yet is that most of the people who voted out, voted out of the EU not a cobbled up arrangement. If Theresa May doesn't want to be leader of the opposition she'd better get that sooner rather than later. We can trade at whatever terms are negotiated but the rest is a red line. Out means out. The Leave voters are watching carefully and any attempt at a fudge will end in tears for the Conservatives. A majority of Conservatives voted to leave and will desert them.

 

How many times are you going to type out a variation of this wet-dream scenario on this thread.

 

It's not going to happen, however much you will it.

 

Even if the Tories end up with the most lily-livered watered down compromise deal with the EU it still won't result in some UKIP landslide.

 

Firstly General elections are fought on more than one issue, secondly UKIP are a trumped up protest group with their entire reason for being achieved with no front bench or credibility as a government in waiting, , third our electoral system is against them and fourth, all four major parties will not offer a significant alternative to whatever deal is done or if they do it will be at the end you don't like (ie Lib Dem or Labour concerns around workers rights/closer ties).

 

And lastly huge swathes of people won't be that fussed about Europe, just like every other election in British history. Oh and one more - 48% voted in anyway, so you're relying on pretty much all the 52% being as outraged as you on any deal that you don't like to sweep UKIP. You need none of that 52% thinking "yeah, not bad, let's move on".

 

Keep wishing it but your UKIP dream it ain't ever going to happen.

Edited 24 July, 2016 by CB Fry

[Horley CTFC Saint]

"The EEA Agreement provides for the inclusion of EU legislation covering the four freedoms — the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital — throughout the 31 EEA States. In addition, the Agreement covers cooperation in other important areas such as research and development, education, social policy, the environment, consumer protection, tourism and culture, collectively known as “flanking and horizontal” policies. The Agreement guarantees equal rights and obligations within the Internal Market for citizens and economic operators in the EEA."

As EFTA member states are also members of the EEA, they are therefore bound by the 'four freedoms'.

 

http://www.efta.int/eea

Isn't Switzerland a member of EFTA but not the EEA?

[John B]

How many times are you going to type out a variation of this wet-dream scenario on this thread.

 

It's not going to happen, however much you will it.

 

Even if the Tories end up with the most lily-livered watered down compromise deal with the EU it still won't result in some UKIP landslide.

 

Firstly General elections are fought on more than one issue, secondly UKIP are a trumped up protest group with their entire reason for being achieved, third our electoral system is against them and fourth, all four major parties will not offer a significant alternative to whatever deal is done or if they do it will be at the end you don't like (ie Lib Dem or Labour concerns around workers rights/closer ties).

 

And lastly huge swathes of people won't be that fussed about Europe, just like every other election in British history. Oh and one more - 48% voted in anyway, so you're relying on pretty much all the 52% being as outraged as you on any deal that you don't like to sweep UKIP. You need none of that 52% thinking "yeah, not bad, let's move on".

 

Keep wishing it but your UKIP dream it ain't ever going to happen.

 

Surely you are not suggesting Derry is talking Bollix

[aintforever]

How many times are you going to type out a variation of this wet-dream scenario on this thread.

 

It's not going to happen, however much you will it.

 

Even if the Tories end up with the most lily-livered watered down compromise deal with the EU it still won't result in some UKIP landslide.

 

Firstly General elections are fought on more than one issue, secondly UKIP are a trumped up protest group with their entire reason for being achieved, third our electoral system is against them and fourth, all four major parties will not offer a significant alternative to whatever deal is done or if they do it will be at the end you don't like (ie Lib Dem or Labour concerns around workers rights/closer ties).

 

And lastly huge swathes of people won't be that fussed about Europe, just like every other election in British history. Oh and one more - 48% voted in anyway, so you're relying on pretty much all the 52% being as outraged as you on any deal that you don't like to sweep UKIP. You need none of that 52% thinking "yeah, not bad, let's move on".

 

Keep wishing it but your UKIP dream it ain't ever going to happen.

 

I dunno, despite the fact that most Tory MPs are pro EU, most Tory party members are Euro sceptic so it's not just the democratic will of the UK but internal party pressures pushing for Brexit. If the EU refuse to negotiate on free movement there may be no choice but a clean break.

[CB Fry]

Surely you are not suggesting Derry is talking Bollix

It's sweet that he's repeated variations of this scenario I reckon about ten times on this thread already.

 

At least the Corbynistas don't have a monopoly on boneheaded delusion.

[OldNick]

the Guardian are saying that the EU may give us a 7 year ;emergency brake' and we could stay in the single market, Boris feels it is a good thng.

This is a positive and if we get a deal like that the Brexiters have done well. It would mean we have the best of both worlds.

I would like to give link but cant do on my lap top. It is on MSN if anybody can copy the link

Edited 24 July, 2016 by OldNick

[shurlock]

the Guardian are saying that the EU may give us a 7 year ;emergency brake' and we could stay in the single market, Boris feels it is a good thng.

This is a positive and if we get a deal like that the Brexiters have done well. It would mean we have the best of both worlds.

I would like to give link but cant do on my lap top. It is on MSN if anybody can copy the link

 

It appears it would be for a transitional period.

 

Of course, the UK may or may not choose to apply it for fear of retaliation. At the same time, members of the EEA have always enjoyed an option emergency break, so on one level there is no real new concession here (Norway hasn't applied it). The only difference is that in this case, the UK would probably apply it as it transitions to a Norway-style arrangement or something else; however, after that time-limited period (e.g. 7 years), it would be bound by free movement -all while paying into the EU budget and having no say on the development of myriad rules and regulations affecting the single market.

 

Let's see how this goes with the Brexiters, accepting free movement while paying for the privilege of playing second fiddle. But it's their decision.

 

#noregulationwithoutrepresentation.

Edited 24 July, 2016 by shurlock

[Guided Missile]

UK explores multi-billion pound free trade deal with China

 

Chancellor Philip Hammond has begun discussions with China on an ambitious free trade deal which could see greater access for major Chinese banks and businesses to the UK economy. The Chancellor told the BBC it was time to explore "new opportunities" across the world, including with China, one of the UK's biggest inward investors. That is despite a short term economic shock from leaving the European Union.

He added that the EU is not in "punishment mode" over the Brexit vote. "What we now need to do is get on with it in a way that minimises the economic impact on the UK economy in the short term and maximises the benefit in the long term," Mr Hammond said, admitting that there had been "global disappointment" about the Brexit vote. Chinese state media reported earlier in the month that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce wants to do a UK free trade deal. At the G20 many countries are now moving into practical mode - the Chancellor campaigned against leaving the EU and China argued against it, but Mr Hammond has clearly signalled that is now a matter for the history books.

 

The British public have spoken.

 

The present challenge is seeing how the fifth largest economy in the world can take advantage of that decision, rebuilding a "close" trading relationship with the EU and new economic relationships with countries, like China, which, it should be remembered, has never had a free trade agreement with any EU country.

Edited 24 July, 2016 by Guided Missile

[buctootim]

UK explores multi-billion pound free trade deal with China

China, one of the UK's biggest inward investors. [/b]

 

Thats a stretch. They invest less here than Luxembourg

 

[shurlock]

UK explores multi-billion pound free trade deal with China

 

Chancellor Philip Hammond has begun discussions with China on an ambitious free trade deal which could see greater access for major Chinese banks and businesses to the UK economy. The Chancellor told the BBC it was time to explore "new opportunities" across the world, including with China, one of the UK's biggest inward investors. That is despite a short term economic shock from leaving the European Union.

He added that the EU is not in "punishment mode" over the Brexit vote. "What we now need to do is get on with it in a way that minimises the economic impact on the UK economy in the short term and maximises the benefit in the long term," Mr Hammond said, admitting that there had been "global disappointment" about the Brexit vote. Chinese state media reported earlier in the month that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce wants to do a UK free trade deal. At the G20 many countries are now moving into practical mode - the Chancellor campaigned against leaving the EU and China argued against it, but Mr Hammond has clearly signalled that is now a matter for the history books.

 

The British public have spoken.

 

The present challenge is seeing how the fifth largest economy in the world can take advantage of that decision, rebuilding a "close" trading relationship with the EU and new economic relationships with countries, like China, which, it should be remembered, has never had a free trade agreement with any EU country.

 

Guided Missile whose knowledge of China extends to ordering sweet and sour and chow mein at the Golden Donkey

 

Let's just hope the UK aspires to a better deal than the complete kowtow it did last year.

 

The idea that China, one of the most opaque and protectionist economies in the world, is going to meaningfully reduce barriers to Britain's service industries such as banking -industries that are central to CCP control and stability- is the height of naivety. The Chinese media put it very well in the wake of the referendum result: that while the the UK was less important to China as a result of Brexit, China was more important to the UK.

 

Taking a cue from Johnny B aka Baldrick, let's see what that means for the UK's negotiating hand.

[Whitey Grandad]

UK explores multi-billion pound free trade deal with China

 

Chancellor Philip Hammond has begun discussions with China on an ambitious free trade deal which could see greater access for major Chinese banks and businesses to the UK economy. The Chancellor told the BBC it was time to explore "new opportunities" across the world, including with China, one of the UK's biggest inward investors. That is despite a short term economic shock from leaving the European Union.

He added that the EU is not in "punishment mode" over the Brexit vote. "What we now need to do is get on with it in a way that minimises the economic impact on the UK economy in the short term and maximises the benefit in the long term," Mr Hammond said, admitting that there had been "global disappointment" about the Brexit vote. Chinese state media reported earlier in the month that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce wants to do a UK free trade deal. At the G20 many countries are now moving into practical mode - the Chancellor campaigned against leaving the EU and China argued against it, but Mr Hammond has clearly signalled that is now a matter for the history books.

 

The British public have spoken.

 

The present challenge is seeing how the fifth largest economy in the world can take advantage of that decision, rebuilding a "close" trading relationship with the EU and new economic relationships with countries, like China, which, it should be remembered, has never had a free trade agreement with any EU country.

 

No longer fifth largest now that the pound is worth half of bugger all.

[TwoPints]

'European officials have said backtracking on the death penalty would effectively put an end to the EU accession process. Erdogan says the death penalty may need to be brought back, citing the calls for it from crowds of supporters at rallies."

 

Hang on... Weren't we all told that Turkeys membership of the EU was just a matter of time opening Britain up to even more migrants? Surely we haven't been deceived by the Leave campaign? Who'd have thought?

 

#projectfearworksbothways

[Whitey Grandad]

I dunno, despite the fact that most Tory MPs are pro EU, most Tory party members are Euro sceptic so it's not just the democratic will of the UK but internal party pressures pushing for Brexit. If the EU refuse to negotiate on free movement there may be no choice but a clean break.

 

Not all of the 150,000 Conservative Party members are Eurosceptics and over 100 times that many voted to remain. The government of Britain has to govern on behalf of every citizen and not just those who voted for them in the same manner as each MP has to represent all of their electorate.

[buctootim]

Not all of the 150,000 Conservative Party members are Eurosceptics and over 100 times that many voted to remain. The government of Britain has to govern on behalf of every citizen and not just those who voted for them in the same manner as each MP has to represent all of their electorate.

 

In any event the Tory party has ways of circumventing awkward party members - the coronation of remainer Theresa May as PM is a case in point.

[Whitey Grandad]

In any event the Tory party has ways of circumventing awkward party members - the coronation of remainer Theresa May as PM is a case in point.

 

Yes that was impressively slick.

[Johnny Bognor]

 

Taking a cue from Johnny B aka Baldrick, let's see what that means for the UK's negotiating hand.

 

Well done, me old pedigree chump. I think you're starting to get the hang of this negotiating lark. Not quite UK trade negotiator level yet, but you may be able to knock 20p off the price of a tin of pal, if you play your cards right.

[OldNick]

Well done, me old pedigree chump. I think you're starting to get the hang of this negotiating lark. Not quite UK trade negotiator level yet, but you may be able to knock 20p off the price of a tin of pal, if you play your cards right.

see the poison of the vote has made decent people turn on each other. You and Shurlock normally seem decent and not going down the jibe route, sadly it is spreading

[Johnny Bognor]

see the poison of the vote has made decent people turn on each other. You and Shurlock normally seem decent and not going down the jibe route, sadly it is spreading

 

We cant blame this on Brexit. We didnt get on that well before the vote LOL

[Guided Missile]

Guided Missile whose knowledge of China extends to ordering sweet and sour and chow mein at the Golden Donkey

1. You realise that I didn't write a word of the post. It was a cut and paste job from an article by the BBC I linked.
   
2. I travel to China often and this year will be buying over $5M worth of raw materials. Not from the Golden Donkey, though, pal....
   

[scotty]

No longer fifth largest now that the pound is worth half of bugger all.

 

You could have said exactly the same after the disastrous events of Black Wednesday. Absolute catastrophe which we'd never recover from.

 

Somehow, we survived. Sterling was lower for a while, and the FTSE, but both recovered very quickly. I just this moment bought some euros, 1.163 to the pound. Not much difference from the last time we went abroad.

[Winnersaint]

This would be a fun way forward.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/24/eu-britain-must-suffer-for-brexit?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=183119&subid=18430495&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

[Whitey Grandad]

You could have said exactly the same after the disastrous events of Black Wednesday. Absolute catastrophe which we'd never recover from.

 

Somehow, we survived. Sterling was lower for a while, and the FTSE, but both recovered very quickly. I just this moment bought some euros, 1.163 to the pound. Not much difference from the last time we went abroad.

 

We're down further against the Dollar than we are against the Euro. In general a deprecation of your currency is not a good sign. If it were than places like Argentina and Zimbabwe would be paragons of economic affluence. A one-off readjustment need not be disastrous but as part of a trend it is a matter of concern. This whole business about 'xth largest economy' is not really significant. What's more important is our buying power and whether we can sell enough to pay for our essential imports.

 

It is woth remembering that just before the world crash of 2008 we were trading at well over $1.80 to the £ and the drop to around $1.6 did little to boost our exports, possible because of the slump in global demand. Incidentally I got €1.236/£ eleven weeks ago.

[Whitey Grandad]

This would be a fun way forward.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/24/eu-britain-must-suffer-for-brexit?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=183119&subid=18430495&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

 

An interesting point of view but I'm not sure exactly what the author is suggesting either way. If nothing else it is a reminder that there are two sides to the forthcoming discussions and the dice are not all loaded in our favour.

[scotty]

We're down further against the Dollar than we are against the Euro. In general a deprecation of your currency is not a good sign. If it were than places like Argentina and Zimbabwe would be paragons of economic affluence. A one-off readjustment need not be disastrous but as part of a trend it is a matter of concern. This whole business about 'xth largest economy' is not really significant. What's more important is our buying power and whether we can sell enough to pay for our essential imports.

 

It is woth remembering that just before the world crash of 2008 we were trading at well over $1.80 to the £ and the drop to around $1.6 did little to boost our exports, possible because of the slump in global demand. Incidentally I got €1.236/£ eleven weeks ago.

 

If we're not in the eu and not in the eurozone, and we're concerned about exports, wouldn't a weaker pound against the dollar be a good thing?

[Verbal]

This would be a fun way forward.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/24/eu-britain-must-suffer-for-brexit?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=183119&subid=18430495&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

 

That already seems out-of-date. Even Juncker, who was issuing 'hurry up and **** off' threats in the hours after the referendum, is now fully signed up to the 'take as long as you want' approach to the UK's triggering of Article 50. Something has changed on both sides of what's still not even a negotiation. Whatever has changed has happened because the new May government have been talking to various parts of the EU.

 

I wonder what would happen if a version of what's being leaked from the EU's higher echelons were to be true: that the UK would be offered 'brakes' on immigration provided it remains in the EU, but not if it leaves and wants access to the single market (which, headbangers here notwithstanding, it most certainly does).

 

It's certainly the case that the long grass is growing longer. The Tory party chairman Patrick McLoughlin suggested at the weekend Article 50 would be triggered 'by 2020'.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/article-50-2020-mcloughlin_uk_5794e41de4b02508de4697bb

 

Which will all the more puzzling for Brexit enthusiasts, because the basic terms that the UK wants to set for its future are simply not dependent on recruiting armies of trade negotiators. The terms themselves - in or out of the EEA/EFTA, 'red lines' on immigration, etc - will necessarily be the result of broad political decisions, not the technical minutae of trade negotiation. And there are enough Brexiteers in the relevant ministries to have agreed those terms by now.

 

Slip sliding away...

[Whitey Grandad]

If we're not in the eu and not in the eurozone, and we're concerned about exports, wouldn't a weaker pound against the dollar be a good thing?

 

Possibly for exports but we're also concerned about imports including energy costs and these will be correspondingly higher and we import far more than we export. Of course tariffs are also important but a cost of a few percent can be more than offset by movements in exchange rates. What we need is stability if we are to develop a long-term trading relationship with partners across the world. A reduction in price will obviously help but the whole situation is very complex with many interdependencies.

[OldNick]

That already seems out-of-date. Even Juncker, who was issuing 'hurry up and **** off' threats in the hours after the referendum, is now fully signed up to the 'take as long as you want' approach to the UK's triggering of Article 50. Something has changed on both sides of what's still not even a negotiation. Whatever has changed has happened because the new May government have been talking to various parts of the EU.

 

I wonder what would happen if a version of what's being leaked from the EU's higher echelons were to be true: that the UK would be offered 'brakes' on immigration provided it remains in the EU, but not if it leaves and wants access to the single market (which, headbangers here notwithstanding, it most certainly does).

 

It's certainly the case that the long grass is growing longer. The Tory party chairman Patrick McLoughlin suggested at the weekend Article 50 would be triggered 'by 2020'.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/article-50-2020-mcloughlin_uk_5794e41de4b02508de4697bb

 

Which will all the more puzzling for Brexit enthusiasts, because the basic terms that the UK wants to set for its future are simply not dependent on recruiting armies of trade negotiators. The terms themselves - in or out of the EEA/EFTA, 'red lines' on immigration, etc - will necessarily be the result of broad political decisions, not the technical minutae of trade negotiation. And there are enough Brexiteers in the relevant ministries to have agreed those terms by now.

 

Slip sliding away...

To my mind the extreme Brexiteers will be impossible to appease whatever we negotiate with the EU.Therefore it would be better to negotiate a deal that suits the majority.

If we negotiate an emergency brake on immigration and still be in the single market but not withe political ties, surely would give the Brexiteers the bragging rights, but at the same time allow us to stay with the advantages we gain being in the market.

Those poor souls sitting in traffic outside Dover might be thinking 'this is the future if we leave the EU'

[buctootim]

I wonder what would happen if a version of what's being leaked from the EU's higher echelons were to be true: that the UK would be offered 'brakes' on immigration provided it remains in the EU, but not if it leaves and wants access to the single terms market (which, headbangers here notwithstanding, it most certainly does).

 

Those terms have been offered before - a form of Associate membership - but Cameron didnt want it. Similarly membership of the EEA (I believe) incorporates a number of 'brakes' as standard, the purpose of which is to allow new members time to adjust and get relevant systems in place. As was said months ago on this forum - and hotly refuted by the more rabid Brexiteers - we will get the Norway deal. Whatever happened to "we're far more powerful and important than them and we will be able to dictate terms"?

[buctootim]

An interesting point of view but I'm not sure exactly what the author is suggesting either way. If nothing else it is a reminder that there are two sides to the forthcoming discussions and the dice are not all loaded in our favour.

 

The author is Dutch. Most of the anti EU parties in Europe are pretty rabid right wing nationalists. I suspect his motivation is more about ensuring they don't get power than punishing Britain.

[derry]

The Conservative majority is too small to withstand the pressure of Leave supporting MPs refusing to support legislation etc. The loss of a large number of disillusioned Leave voters at a General election would mean a considerable loss of existing Conservative seats to other parties. The biggest beneficiary would be UKIP who could also benefit from a Labour vote switching in the North of England. The UK will split from the EU, there will be trade but the other EU conditions will be vetoed by the Conservative Leavers.

[Winnersaint]

Most of the anti EU parties in Europe are pretty rabid right wing nationalists.

Seems a pretty accurate description of the Brexiteers in general and UKIP in particular.

[Whitey Grandad]

The Conservative majority is too small to withstand the pressure of Leave supporting MPs refusing to support legislation etc. The loss of a large number of disillusioned Leave voters at a General election would mean a considerable loss of existing Conservative seats to other parties. The biggest beneficiary would be UKIP who could also benefit from a Labour vote switching in the North of England. The UK will split from the EU, there will be trade but the other EU conditions will be vetoed by the Conservative Leavers.

 

You are forgetting all the opposition MPs who could support the government on such an important issue. I really think you overestimate the support for the anti-EU position in the country as a whole. I'm sure that the senior politicians will be analysing and examining and canvassing every combination of representation before coming to any conclusions. As I have said before, if the present government were to go for a total break with Europe there would be widespread outrage and they would be out of office for the foreseeable future. There is a very delicate balancing act needed and we have only begun to see the first hesitant steps along the highwire. I think you need to get out more from your UKIP enclave and find out what the other tens of millions of voters really want.

[Johnny Bognor]

I wonder what would happen if a version of what's being leaked from the EU's higher echelons were to be true: that the UK would be offered 'brakes' on immigration provided it remains in the EU, but not if it leaves and wants access to the single market (which, headbangers here notwithstanding, it most certainly does).

 

 

I suggested this would be the outcome back in April. .... .

 

Most people talk of a straight 'in' or 'out' scenario. Black and White. **** or Bust.

 

In my opinion, if the 'out' vote wins, we won't be leaving the EU any time soon...

 

Cameron will go back to the EU and say, Angela my people want out, we need to renegotiate. A re-negotiation will take place. I am sure the EU would make some concessions to keep the UK in. Cameron will then come back with a new negotiated membership deal and we will have another refurendum, upon which we will vote to remain.

 

 

Just replace 'May' for 'Cameron' and you can call me a visionary... Maybe I'm born with it.....

 

Oh and this comment from the same post, just for me old pedigree chump...

 

An 'out' vote could result in a stronger membership negotiating position.

 

Can we close this thread yet?

Edited 25 July, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[shurlock]

I suggested this would be the outcome back in April. .... .

 

 

 

 

Just replace 'May' for 'Cameron' and you can call me a visionary... with his finger on the pulse...

 

Oh and this comment from the same post, just for me old pedigree chump...

 

 

 

Maybe I'm born with it....

 

Alas what's being discussed has nothing to do with the UK remaining in the EU, enjoying its current rights while extracting extra concessions but some form of associate membership - effectively the same type of offer made to those in the EEA. Basically, the UK becomes like Norway -and surprise, surprise gets a Norway-type deal. Apart from that Baldrick, your analysis is spot-on

Edited 25 July, 2016 by shurlock

[Johnny Bognor]

Alas what's being discussed has nothing to do with the UK remaining in the EU, enjoying its current rights while extracting extra concessions but some form of associate membership - effectively the same type of offer made to those in the EEA. Basically, the UK becomes like Norway -and surprise, surprise gets a Norway-type deal. Apart from that Baldrick, your analysis is spot-on

 

I was specifically responding to this point by Verbal...

 

I wonder what would happen if a version of what's being leaked from the EU's higher echelons were to be true: that the UK would be offered 'brakes' on immigration provided it remains in the EU, but not if it leaves and wants access to the single market (which, headbangers here notwithstanding, it most certainly does).

 

Apart from that me old Pedigree Chump, your response is spot-on

 

And people say that I have a comprehension problem

[hutch]

That already seems out-of-date. Even Juncker, who was issuing 'hurry up and **** off' threats in the hours after the referendum, is now fully signed up to the 'take as long as you want' approach to the UK's triggering of Article 50. Something has changed on both sides of what's still not even a negotiation. Whatever has changed has happened because the new May government have been talking to various parts of the EU.

 

I wonder what would happen if a version of what's being leaked from the EU's higher echelons were to be true: that the UK would be offered 'brakes' on immigration provided it remains in the EU, but not if it leaves and wants access to the single market (which, headbangers here notwithstanding, it most certainly does).

 

It's certainly the case that the long grass is growing longer. The Tory party chairman Patrick McLoughlin suggested at the weekend Article 50 would be triggered 'by 2020'.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/article-50-2020-mcloughlin_uk_5794e41de4b02508de4697bb

 

Which will all the more puzzling for Brexit enthusiasts, because the basic terms that the UK wants to set for its future are simply not dependent on recruiting armies of trade negotiators. The terms themselves - in or out of the EEA/EFTA, 'red lines' on immigration, etc - will necessarily be the result of broad political decisions, not the technical minutae of trade negotiation. And there are enough Brexiteers in the relevant ministries to have agreed those terms by now.

 

Slip sliding away...

I posted on here weeks ago, just after the referendum, that if you want to see what is really going on, watch the relationship between Merkel and Junkers.

 

Admittedly at that time I was of the opinion that if she sacked him then we would be well placed for a very acceptable compromise. But I suppose making him sit in the corner, shut his gob and do what he is told is the next best thing.

 

It's also good to see that on here people are at last seeing the difference between being a part of the single market and having access to the single market.

[shurlock]

I was specifically responding to this point by Verbal...

 

 

 

Apart from that me old Pedigree Chump, your response is spot-on

 

And people say that I have a comprehension problem

 

Of course, Baldrick, in your little fantasy world anything is possible. You can dream up deals that don't exist or haven't been mooted and pretend that the UK dictated terms to the frogs and krauts and was able to have its cake and eat it. Why stop there? how about the Chinese entirely liberalise their financial sector and give the UK preferential access- that will do wonders for the balance of power in negotiations.

 

In your fantasy world, you're indeed a true visionary

Edited 25 July, 2016 by shurlock

[SW5 SAINT]

The Conservative majority is too small to withstand the pressure of Leave supporting MPs refusing to support legislation etc. The loss of a large number of disillusioned Leave voters at a General election would mean a considerable loss of existing Conservative seats to other parties. The biggest beneficiary would be UKIP who could also benefit from a Labour vote switching in the North of England. The UK will split from the EU, there will be trade but the other EU conditions will be vetoed by the Conservative Leavers.

 

UKIP have still only ever won one Parliamentary seat, one they stole from the Conservatives.

[Whitey Grandad]

There's a long long way to go yet in these negotiations. We are still in the phony war period and these are just the opening skirmishes. Let's wait until the invasion of France before we can see how it's all going to end.

[aintforever]

Seems a pretty accurate description of the Brexiteers in general and UKIP in particular.

 

Except a huge amount of Labour voters want brexit. They are the people who swung the vote, not the swivel-eyed loons in Surrey.

 

It's the lower paid or 'working class' - tradition Labour supporters that feel the effects of mass imigration, they are the people who have been ignored by all the main parties for year after year. Branded as racist by Labour politicians for daring to raise immigration as an issue. They voted Brexit despite all the warnings from rich business leaders and bankers - because they have **** all to lose. If they are ignored again then the main parties will get a kicking at the next general election.

[derry]

You are forgetting all the opposition MPs who could support the government on such an important issue. I really think you overestimate the support for the anti-EU position in the country as a whole. I'm sure that the senior politicians will be analysing and examining and canvassing every combination of representation before coming to any conclusions. As I have said before, if the present government were to go for a total break with Europe there would be widespread outrage and they would be out of office for the foreseeable future. There is a very delicate balancing act needed and we have only begun to see the first hesitant steps along the highwire. I think you need to get out more from your UKIP enclave and find out what the other tens of millions of voters really want.

 

I'm Conservative not UKIP and if a Conservative government used pro EU parties to push through legislation it would lose them the votes they need in an election. The referendum was a majority vote to leave the EU and that's a fact. Banging on about the economy lost the referendum, because the decisive issues are immigration, sovereignty, and being out of the EU for most of the leave voters. Quite how outraged left voters not voting Conservative is going to put them out of office is beyond me. It seems all right for you to talk for the tens of millions when 17.5 million voted Leave.

[derry]

Except a huge amount of Labour voters want brexit. They are the people who swung the vote, not the swivel-eyed loons in Surrey.

 

It's the lower paid or 'working class' - tradition Labour supporters that feel the effects of mass imigration, they are the people who have been ignored by all the main parties for year after year. Branded as racist by Labour politicians for daring to raise immigration as an issue. They voted Brexit despite all the warnings from rich business leaders and bankers - because they have **** all to lose. If they are ignored again then the main parties will get a kicking at the next general election.

 

As happened in Scotland and with the LDs