Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[spyinthesky]

Southampton largely handles liquid bulk. FACT.

CORRECT WITHIN THE TOTAL PORT TONNAGE FIGURES THAT HAVE BEEN QUOTED FROM OFFICIAL SOURCES

 

By contrast, only a third of the freight it handles is lo-lo or ro-ro freight -what one typically thinks about when one thinks about trade in manufacturing goods. It's clearly important but in absolute and relative terms, it is smaller than Dover. FACT.

DOVER MAINLY HANDLES CROSS CHANNEL RO/RO FREIGHT ON LORRIES BUT IT ALSO HANDLES FRUIT FROM DEEP SEA DESTINATIONS.THE LATTER IS LESS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY DELAYS IN PROCESSING GOODS THROUGH CUSTOMS

 

As you can't or won't disprove this, one can only conclude that you've made a weapons-grade tit of yourself.

 

And when was international trade not EU trade? Maybe ask Santa for an atlas or globe this crimbo. The EU accounts for 55% of all international cargo moved (some of that comes from outside the EU via Rotterdam).

 

Spyinthesky's post is particularly interesting insofar as it points out that much of the cargo transported by ro-ro carriers is just-in-time production parts - all part and parcel of a sophisticated, interdependent, 21st century economy that requires customs procedures that are as frictionless as possible.

ACTUALLY THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CARGO CARRIED ON DRIVER ACCOMPANIED FERRIES AND NON ACCOMPANIED RO/RO. THE FORMER NORMALLY NEEDS INSTANTANEOUS CUSTOMS CLEARANCE WHEREAS THE LATTER NORMALLY DOESNT

And they say the jihadists want to take us back to the stone age. Or is it gravel age?

 

Thanks for the easy pickings JJ. Chin up pal. Maybe next time

 

I THINK THE ARGUMENT HAS GONE OFF TRACK A BIT AND HAS FOCUSED ON COMPARATIVE PORT TONNAGES.

 

THE UNRESOLVED ISSUE, AS FAR AS I CAN TELL, IS WHETHER GOODS (PRIMARILY JIT) THAT FLOW QUICKLY THROUGH OUR MAIN FERRY PORTS (MAINLY DOVER) CAN CONTINUE TO BE MOVED WITHOUT UNDUE PROCESSING DELAYS

[Guided Missile]

GM

Depends on how you break down the cargo figures.~

The rule of thumb has always been:

1. Oil & related products apprx 25 million tonnes

(via Fawley & BP Hamble)

2. General Cargo

Ie non liquid bulk) apprx 10million tonnes

(included within the 10 million tonnes is +/- 800k tonnes of bulk material (mainly imported sand and gravel and exported scrap) from the river wharves on the Itchen and the Lafarge facility at Marchwood.

btw there is no cement handled. The sand and gravel goes into the cement plant on the Itchen to be used in the cement processing procedure.

Apologies for being pedantic on this but many years ago I was involved in submitting trade information to the Dept of Transport and I doubt if the stats have changed that much in recent years.

Where does the nearly 1 million cars and vans fit in those figures, not to mention 2 million cruise passengers?

[Guided Missile]

THE UNRESOLVED ISSUE, AS FAR AS I CAN TELL, IS WHETHER GOODS (PRIMARILY JIT) THAT FLOW QUICKLY THROUGH OUR MAIN FERRY PORTS (MAINLY DOVER) CAN CONTINUE TO BE MOVED WITHOUT UNDUE PROCESSING DELAYS

I used to hate queuing at the supermarket checkout. Isn't great to be able to scan goods, pay for them with a tap of a phone and get out of Tescos in a minute or two? I also like driving in and out of the short stay at Heathrow, without a minutes delay. I remember when you used to have to line up to pick the ticket up, pay at the terminal with your credit card and then line up to feed the ticket into the machine, on the way out. Now, apparently they can read bar codes, bluetooth phones and number plates.

Apparently not at Dover...

[spyinthesky]

GM

 

It would be interesting if the 2 million(ish) cruise passengers (who are counted as 1 million in/1 million out) had to declare a weight figure so they could be added to the tonnage figure but they are not.

 

Passenger figures have a separate category in DFt stats.

 

I will try and find the breakdown of the 10 million tonne figures but think it probably works out as:

 

1. Containers 7 million (cargo carried in 1.7m TEU boxes)

2. Vehicles 1 million

3. Port Bulks 1.2 "

(ie scrap/grain/etc etc)

4. Wharf Bulks 0.8 "

[Guided Missile]

1. What is the ETIAS?

What is the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS)?

In November 2016, the Commission proposed to establish a European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) to strengthen security checks on those persons who travel visa-free to the EU, currently nationals from over 60 countries (full list here).

The ETIAS will be an automated IT system created to identify any security or irregular migratory risks posed by visa-exempt visitors travelling to the Schengen area, whilst at the same time facilitate crossing borders for the vast majority of travellers who do not pose such risks. All non-EU nationals who do not need a visa to travel to the Schengen area will have to apply for a travel authorisation through the ETIAS system prior to their trip. The information gathered via the ETIAS will allow, in full respect of fundamental rights and data protection principles, for advance verification of potential security or irregular migration risks.

[spyinthesky]

I used to hate queuing at the supermarket checkout. Isn't great to be able to scan goods, pay for them with a tap of a phone and get out of Tescos in a minute or two? I also like driving in and out of the short stay at Heathrow, without a minutes delay. I remember when you used to have to line up to pick the ticket up, pay at the terminal with your credit card and then line up to feed the ticket into the machine, on the way out. Now, apparently they can read bar codes, bluetooth phones and number plates.

Apparently not at Dover...

 

GM

 

I am not an expert but know people who process customs declarations so will ask.

 

I presume that tariff free trade within in the EU allows for straightforward processing of paperwork but for non EU goods there are a host of different tariff arrangements to consider and ensure payment before release of goods.

 

Non of this is insurmountable mid/long term but it has the propensity to cause havoc in the short term

[buctootim]

It’s really not complicated. The time sensitive goods come through Dover.

 

It doesn’t matter if cars or wheat are held up and have to spend 24 hours waiting dockside at Southampton .It really really matters if roll on roll off trucks spend 24 hours on the M20 in Kent whilst their fresh lettuce or strawberries rot and the car factories stop becauE their just in time parts are still waiting customs clearance.

[Sheaf Saint]

My argument was with you, not Herbert Von W@nkstain, who make up his own arguments with his rapidly shrinking audience. Just to recap, as you obviously have the recall of a goldfish:

 

"I am struck, every time I drive to St. Mary's, the size of the container ships sailing in and out of Southampton. Dover? Give me a break. That tinpot port may be important to our trade with Northern France, but important to our international trade? Give me a break. If we shut Dover down tomorrow, it would only be a disaster to Calais, not the UK."

 

Pigeon 1:Goldfish 0

 

Same old GM, huh. Why do you keep on doing this to yourself year after year without learning any lessons? Once again you can't actually argue your point with any verifiable facts, so you default to churlish insults when it doesn't go your way.

 

 

Your claim that Dover is not important to UK's international trade is completely false, yet you keep falling back on your 94% figure which, as Shurlock and others have already shown, is a completely erroneous argument.

 

You remind me of a child who simply has to have the last word, and would rather shut himself away in his room and sulk than admit to being wrong.

[Cabbage_Face]

Of course Dover is important to UK's trade, it's the shortest crossing to Europe. Why is this even being argued?

[shurlock]

I THINK THE ARGUMENT HAS GONE OFF TRACK A BIT AND HAS FOCUSED ON COMPARATIVE PORT TONNAGES.

 

THE UNRESOLVED ISSUE, AS FAR AS I CAN TELL, IS WHETHER GOODS (PRIMARILY JIT) THAT FLOW QUICKLY THROUGH OUR MAIN FERRY PORTS (MAINLY DOVER) CAN CONTINUE TO BE MOVED WITHOUT UNDUE PROCESSING DELAYS

 

Totally agree.

 

The whole discussion began crudely and simplistically: the argument could never be settled -as some tried- by invoking port tonnages -and even worse using these figures to claim that Dover was a tinpot port and that if we shut Dover down tomorrow, it would be a disaster for the UK. Yes the feckless GM uttered those very words.

 

Even on those crude terms, I suggested that we could get some insight by decomposing aggregate figures by cargo type which puts the role of Dover in a very different light.

 

But as you say, this misses the big picture about what we do to ensure minimal delays to key ports like Dover, not only given their role in JIT but also in trade in food and pharmaceuticals when the UK is outside the customs union and single market.

[shurlock]

GM

 

I am not an expert but know people who process customs declarations so will ask.

 

I presume that tariff free trade within in the EU allows for straightforward processing of paperwork but for non EU goods there are a host of different tariff arrangements to consider and ensure payment before release of goods.

 

Non of this is insurmountable mid/long term but it has the propensity to cause havoc in the short term

 

Focus on tariffs is a red herring IMO.

 

The EU is ultimately a regulatory order. The rationale of single market is to have common rules so that a product sold in one EU country can also be sold in any other - no questions asked. With 28 different sets of rules governing the sale of a product, it becomes harder to sell this product across all EU countries, reducing trade and competition.

 

Critical to this is the ability of the EU and ECJ to ensure a level playing field - that everyone is actually playing by the same rules. To this end, the EU and ECJ have direct jurisdiction over enforcement up and down the value chain and can take action against member states where they are believed to in violation of the rules. In return, member states get their free passes at the border.

 

With Brexit, that jurisdiction necessarily ends. Therefore border checks are necessary. What is the alternative - that the EU is going to trust a third country's word that it is exporting to the EU under the same stringent conditions as intra-union trade undertaken by member states without any capacity to verify or enforce that word? Dream on.

Edited 10 November, 2018 by shurlock

[Wes Tender]

Once again you can't actually argue your point with any verifiable facts, so you default to churlish insults when it doesn't go your way.

 

Whereas of course Shurlock wouldn't dream of indulging in churlish insults, would he?

[Verbal]

Whereas of course Shurlock wouldn't dream of indulging in churlish insults, would he?

 

Agreed. He's very Rothschildish.

[Guided Missile]

Whereas of course Shurlock wouldn't dream of indulging in churlish insults, would he?

I'm sorry Wes, but because of his obviously slavish devotion to the EU project and in particular, Merkel's doomed attempt at building a Fourth Reich with their Vichy partners, he will always be known to me as Herbert Von W@nkstain.

Him and his fellow traitors will soon be strung up from the nearest utility pole, with piano wire, when the inevitable victory for freedom occurs.

[Verbal]

I'm sorry Wes, but because of his obviously slavish devotion to the EU project and in particular, Merkel's doomed attempt at building a Fourth Reich with their Vichy partners, he will always be known to me as Herbert Von W@nkstain.

Him and his fellow traitors will soon be strung up from the nearest utility pole, with piano wire, when the inevitable victory for freedom occurs.

 

When the other Sherlock swings by to solve the Case of the Forum Murders, he ain't going to have to look far, pal.

 

And don't rile up Lord T. He knows the Von W@nkstains can trace their roots back to the Exodus.

[Tamesaint]

I'm sorry Wes, but because of his obviously slavish devotion to the EU project and in particular, Merkel's doomed attempt at building a Fourth Reich with their Vichy partners, he will always be known to me as Herbert Von W@nkstain.

Him and his fellow traitors will soon be strung up from the nearest utility pole, with piano wire, when the inevitable victory for freedom occurs.

 

You really are an odd fellow.

 

Are you for real ? Do you follow Saints at all and have any views on football or are you are a figment of the mods' s imagination designed to give the rest of us a laugh?

[shurlock]

I'm sorry Wes, but because of his obviously slavish devotion to the EU project and in particular, Merkel's doomed attempt at building a Fourth Reich with their Vichy partners, he will always be known to me as Herbert Von W@nkstain.

Him and his fellow traitors will soon be strung up from the nearest utility pole, with piano wire, when the inevitable victory for freedom occurs.

 

A bit of trivia JJ: my grandfather’s middle name is Herbert. While we’re on the subject, it’s also worth noting that a large number of his family were wiped out by the Nazis -presumably gassed or shot rather than strung up from the nearest utility pole (much less efficient when you’re in a concentration camp). But why split hairs pal when I can take comfort in the spirit and generosity of your message.

 

Yours tastefully

Herbert Von W@nkstain

Edited 11 November, 2018 by shurlock

[Weston Super Saint]

Here's a thought - and I admit I'm no expert on cross channel ferries or customs processes - but why not put the customs officers on the ferries? If a delay of a couple of minutes will cause operation stack to be put in process, why not check the freight on the ferries as they cross the channel, it's pretty much dead time for the drivers anyway! That way, they drive off the ferry in Dover having had the vehicle checks done and then head off on their merry way!

 

Or is that too simple?

[badgerx16]

Him and his fellow traitors will soon be strung up from the nearest utility pole, with piano wire, when the inevitable victory for freedom occurs.

 

Do you actually believe the things that you post ?

[Tamesaint]

Do you actually believe the things that you post ?

 

I suspect that he writes under the influence of alcohol. It's either that or undiagnosed syphilis.

[LGTL]

I suspect that he writes under the influence of alcohol. It's either that or undiagnosed syphilis.

 

I suspect he's just a massive cunt.

[sandwichsaint]

Here's a thought - and I admit I'm no expert on cross channel ferries or customs processes - but why not put the customs officers on the ferries? If a delay of a couple of minutes will cause operation stack to be put in process, why not check the freight on the ferries as they cross the channel, it's pretty much dead time for the drivers anyway! That way, they drive off the ferry in Dover having had the vehicle checks done and then head off on their merry way!

 

Or is that too simple?

 

Operation stack refers to outbound traffic!

[Sheaf Saint]

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1061554026284834817

 

Don't worry everyone. It's all going to be fine. Nothing to worry about whatsoever.

[egg]

Here's a thought - and I admit I'm no expert on cross channel ferries or customs processes - but why not put the customs officers on the ferries? If a delay of a couple of minutes will cause operation stack to be put in process, why not check the freight on the ferries as they cross the channel, it's pretty much dead time for the drivers anyway! That way, they drive off the ferry in Dover having had the vehicle checks done and then head off on their merry way!

 

Or is that too simple?

 

So what happens if there is an issue with the freight?

[Verbal]

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1061554026284834817

 

Don't worry everyone. It's all going to be fine. Nothing to worry about whatsoever.

 

That's a devastating thread, and should be read by all Jihadists so that they know what anti-British vandals they really are.

[shurlock]

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1061554026284834817

 

Don't worry everyone. It's all going to be fine. Nothing to worry about whatsoever.

 

Don’t worry, at least, we won’t run out of gravel and sand.

[Cabbage_Face]

Let me get this right. All these huge companies that do massive amounts of business in the uk are going to move out of Britain after Brexit?

 

Sounds like a perfect opportunity to open an exact same company and base myself in their old building with the staff they sack.

 

What is the REAL truth after Brexit? Does anyone know? Or is it scaremongering and guess work?

 

I'm still convinced we won't leave, T.May will be ousted, General Election and Jezza won't carry on with Brexit to appease the voters he won.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Let me get this right. All these huge companies that do massive amounts of business in the uk are going to move out of Britain after Brexit?

 

Sounds like a perfect opportunity to open an exact same company and base myself in their old building with the staff they sack.

 

What is the REAL truth after Brexit? Does anyone know? Or is it scaremongering and guess work?

 

I'm still convinced we won't leave, T.May will be ousted, General Election and Jezza won't carry on with Brexit to appease the voters he won.

 

People have said May would be ousted for the last 12 months. It hasn't happened yet and I don't think it will.

[Cabbage_Face]

People have said May would be ousted for the last 12 months. It hasn't happened yet and I don't think it will.

 

 

Depends on the deal she puts forward to Parliament.

[shurlock]

Depends on the deal she puts forward to Parliament.

 

Agree - nearly all signs point to Parliament rejecting her deal in which case she'll be toast.

 

The only reason she's stayed in the job is because she's been unable or unwilling to show her hand and spell out what Brexit means. As soon as that was no longer possible -and May could never escape the clock, the writing's been on the wall for her.

 

The only thing that might save her is if the EU indulges her in a can-kicking fudge.

Edited 12 November, 2018 by shurlock

[Cabbage_Face]

Just watch Jezza do a U-Turn on his stance once BoJo or some other clown gets in charge. Suddenly he will want a peoples vote. Can see it happening.

[buctootim]

People have said May would be ousted for the last 12 months. It hasn't happened yet and I don't think it will.

 

Thats because she's been promising different things to different people in a bid to kick the can down the road in the hope that something will turn up. Now, with only 4 months to go, the road is about to run out.

[Weston Super Saint]

So what happens if there is an issue with the freight?

 

Presumably the same thing that happens now when there is an issue with the freight....

[badgerx16]

Presumably the same thing that happens now when there is an issue with the freight....

But currently, for trade within the EU, there won't be issues as we are all playing with the same rule book. Unless we stay in the Customs Union post Brexit then all such trade needs to be validated before it enters/leaves the UK.

[egg]

But currently, for trade within the EU, there won't be issues as we are all playing with the same rule book. Unless we stay in the Customs Union post Brexit then all such trade needs to be validated before it enters/leaves the UK.

Quite.

[Weston Super Saint]

But currently, for trade within the EU, there won't be issues as we are all playing with the same rule book. Unless we stay in the Customs Union post Brexit then all such trade needs to be validated before it enters/leaves the UK.

 

That's odd as I'm sure I've seen countless 'border' type programs where they are searching lorries coming off the ferries from Calais, which suggests there are currently issues - predominantly smuggling of both people and goods (tobacco, alcohol, fake clothes, perfumes, electricals etc.) :shrug:

 

Like I said, I'm no expert but surely if a small delay causes massive disruption as previously claimed, the answer would be to check the lorries on the crossing.

[badgerx16]

That's odd as I'm sure I've seen countless 'border' type programs where they are searching lorries coming off the ferries from Calais, which suggests there are currently issues - predominantly smuggling of both people and goods (tobacco, alcohol, fake clothes, perfumes, electricals etc.) :shrug:

If a container is loaded onto a truck in Munich, Prague, or Warsaw, and is then driven to Calais and onto a ferry, all Customs requirements are automatically satisfied because of the CU. The failure of the French to properly police the immigrants on their channel coast trying to sneak into the UK is not related to Customs, and won't go away post Brexit.

[shurlock]

If a container is loaded onto a truck in Munich, Prague, or Warsaw, and is then driven to Calais and onto a ferry, all Customs requirements are automatically satisfied because of the CU. The failure of the French to properly police the immigrants on their channel coast trying to sneak into the UK is not related to Customs, and won't go away post Brexit.

 

CU+SM. The Customs Union is massively overrated.

[Sheaf Saint]

"I don't want a Brexit deal" - says man whose sole job is to get a Brexit deal...

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/dominic-raab-is-privately-pushing-for-no-deal-brexit-2018-11

[Cabbage_Face]

"I don't want a Brexit deal" - says man whose sole job is to get a Brexit deal...

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/dominic-raab-is-privately-pushing-for-no-deal-brexit-2018-11

 

 

Whole things a mess, got the Tories fighting over what they want, got Labour who can't decide what they want. No way any deal will make it through Parliament. Here we come General Election.

[Verbal]

Whole things a mess, got the Tories fighting over what they want, got Labour who can't decide what they want. No way any deal will make it through Parliament. Here we come General Election.

 

People forget the key instrument in this mess. There was a reason why the referendum was only 'advisory'. It was so that a super-majority wouldn't be needed in the result (say, two-thirds majority). Only after the legislation was passed for the referendum did Cameron and then May double down on treating the outcome as compulsory - but now shorn of the fairness required in a decisive vote.

 

It's why some argue quite convincingly that this is a coup, in which national interests, including national prosperity, are trashed in favour of a clique of hedge-funders and super-rich whose interests are served by demolishing the commitments and taxes of a welfare state. That this is also Putin's desired outcome is relevant (and Farage is where the two strands meet).

[Cabbage_Face]

People forget the key instrument in this mess. There was a reason why the referendum was only 'advisory'. It was so that a super-majority wouldn't be needed in the result (say, two-thirds majority). Only after the legislation was passed for the referendum did Cameron and then May double down on treating the outcome as compulsory - but now shorn of the fairness required in a decisive vote.

 

It's why some argue quite convincingly that this is a coup, in which national interests, including national prosperity, are trashed in favour of a clique of hedge-funders and super-rich whose interests are served by demolishing the commitments and taxes of a welfare state. That this is also Putin's desired outcome is relevant (and Farage is where the two strands meet).

 

 

The Key Instrument was David Cameron blind arrogance he would win.

[Verbal]

The Key Instrument was David Cameron blind arrogance he would win.

 

That would make him the author, not the instrument. Aside from that, I agree.

[Cabbage_Face]

That would make him the author, not the instrument. Aside from that, I agree.

 

Agree. Also there are SO many sleeping voters that all these polls never consider. It's just one huge mess.

[Sheaf Saint]

Multiple sources on Twitter now saying that we have agreed the text of the withdrawal agreement and it is ready to be put before the cabinet.

[Cabbage_Face]

Which will be thrown out.

[Sheaf Saint]

Which will be thrown out.

 

Undoubtedly.

 

The Brexit ideologues will never accept it, so it will be rejected before it even goes to a vote in Parliament.

[hypochondriac]

Undoubtedly.

 

The Brexit ideologues will never accept it, so it will be rejected before it even goes to a vote in Parliament.

Neither side will accept it. May has been terrible and as I said months ago I didn't think we would leave as it won't get through parliament.

[shurlock]

Money on which cabinet minister resigns first?

[hypochondriac]

Money on which cabinet minister resigns first?

Michael gove won't. He's one of the worst.