Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[buctootim]

Tim, can I ask what your experience is within the industry you are talking about?

 

Ive worked with and for environmental charities for the past 20 years. Ive advised organisations like the Soil Association, Marine Stewardship council and the Forest Stewardship Council on their certification standards. In 2000-2006 I worked with DEFRA and IEED to raise standards in supermarket practice with Race to the Top https://www.iied.org/race-top. More recently Ive focussed on Marine but retain may friends and colleagues who work in the agricultural sector.

Edited 13 July, 2018 by buctootim

[Batman]

Ive worked with and for environmental charities for the past 20 years. Ive advised organisations like the Soil Association, Marine Stewardship council and the Forest Stewardship Council on their certification standards. In 2000-2006 I worked with DEFRA and IEED to raise standards in supermarket practice with Race to the Top https://www.iied.org/race-top

 

*thumbs up*

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

So you dont actually run a pig business either.

 

I don't know you Buctotim, I am sure you are very nice guy. The trouble is Google makes you think that you are a lot cleverer than you are. You will probably notice that when it comes to farming, pubs and drinks I might join a debate on here. That is because I have or have had interests in all of them. When it comes to pigs, I have a business that I run which fattens pigs through a bed and breakfast system.

 

On that note I will leave the debate and leave you to google bed and breakfast pigs.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Thats not what you said. you're trying to change your claim now you've been made to look stupid. Your quote is below. I do however agree that it would be better if you didnt waste my time arguing against the bleeding obvious

 

As I understand it you suggested that intensive farming has meant that hedgerows and stonewalls were being lost. I pointed out that they were built and planted for sheep and cattle but not pigs and chickens because in the 18 and 19th century when all the hedgerows and walls were built they were built for cattle and sheep but not for pigs and chickens which were generally farmyard animals. When pigs became more intensive they did move out onto the fields but no hedgerows or walls were built for them so they will not be lost.

 

That really is me done.

[buctootim]

meh

[OldNick]

luckily us leaving the EU means we can go to the free world and get trade deals done with the likes of Japan.........oh

[Nolan]

luckily us leaving the EU means we can go to the free world and get trade deals done with the likes of Japan.........oh

Yeah, somehow Japan can do a customs deal. Free trade with the EU without having to have a 'EU' rulebook.

 

Funny that...

[CB Fry]

Yeah, somehow Japan can do a customs deal. Free trade with the EU without having to have a 'EU' rulebook.

 

Funny that...

Pretty certain that we can have a free trade deal with the EU and not have to follow the rulebook. Believe that has been on offer from Barnier from the very start of the process.

 

I imagine right now the EU are thinking, go on, take that option and make our fu cking day.

[Nolan]

Pretty certain that we can have a free trade deal with the EU and not have to follow the rulebook. Believe that has been on offer from Barnier from the very start of the process.

 

I imagine right now the EU are thinking, go on, take that option and make our fu cking day.

You obviously haven't read May's sellout proposal then...

[CB Fry]

Its here on his special slide. I'm sure someone who knows more than me will plot that Japan deal but I guess somewhere near Korea and Canada.

[CB Fry]

You obviously haven't read May's sellout proposal then...

That's because we want more than a free trade deal.

[shurlock]

That's because we want more than a free trade deal.

 

Exactly. The UK basically wants a Switzerland+ for the price of a Canada.

[John B]

Brexit: Where we are at:

 

- Government impact assessment reports on a ‘No Deal’ Brexit indicate an economic decline greater than the Great Depression of 1931.

 

- The Government have taken 2 years to create an unworkable plan that will be rejected by the EU.

 

It’s a total mess anybody disagree

[Nolan]

They missed the fact we would have record employment.

 

What else did the impact assessment miss?

[shurlock]

They missed the fact we would have record employment.

 

What else did the impact assessment miss?

 

Has a no deal Brexit happened yet pal?

Edited 19 July, 2018 by shurlock

[Lord Duckhunter]

Brexit: Where we are at:

 

- Government impact assessment reports on a ‘No Deal’ Brexit indicate an economic decline greater than the Great Depression of 1931.

 

- The Government have taken 2 years to create an unworkable plan that will be rejected by the EU.

 

It’s a total mess anybody disagree

 

 

-Heard it all before, I call pony.

 

-Yep, remainer PM & remainer civil service have come up with a right turd of a plan.

 

It is a mess, a mess of remainer May’s own making. What happens next is anybodies guess, but with Labour looking like they’re going to vote against the Government every time it can only mean stalemate. I guess no deal, extending A50 , GE, another referendum are the options if May remains in charge. If she doesn’t I guess a Leave Tory leader will try and get a deal through with the help of Labour leavers.

 

 

 

Interesting the the Irish Times are reporting that Varadkar told his cabinet that there would be no hard border even if there was no deal.

 

“The European Union has reassured the Government that no physical checks will be needed on the Border even if the UK crashes out of the bloc without a deal, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said.”

 

“Juncker and my EU colleagues have on many occasions said that they wouldn’t require us to put in place a physical infrastructure and customs checks on the Border between Northern Ireland and Ireland,” he said.

 

 

Interesting that the EU accept there would be no hard border with no deal, but insist on one if a Canada style deal is accepted ( which I’ve read was offered at the start of the process). Maybe a new PM could go for this, fudge the border issue to get the DUP onside, then squeeze over the line with Labour rebels help.

 

 

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[benjii]

-Heard it all before, I call pony.

 

-Yep, remainer PM & remainer civil service have come up with a right turd of a plan.

 

It is a mess, a mess of remainer May’s own making. What happens next is anybodies guess, but with Labour looking like they’re going to vote against the Government every time it can only mean stalemate. I guess no deal, extending A50 , GE, another referendum are the options if May remains in charge. If she doesn’t I guess a Leave Tory leader will try and get a deal through with the help of Labour leavers.

 

 

 

Interesting the the Irish Times are reporting that Varadkar told his cabinet that there would be no hard border even if there was no deal.

 

“The European Union has reassured the Government that no physical checks will be needed on the Border even if the UK crashes out of the bloc without a deal, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said.”

 

“Juncker and my EU colleagues have on many occasions said that they wouldn’t require us to put in place a physical infrastructure and customs checks on the Border between Northern Ireland and Ireland,” he said.

 

 

Interesting that the EU accept there would be no hard border with no deal, but insist on one if a Canada style deal is accepted ( which I’ve read was offered at the start of the process). Maybe a new PM could go for this, fudge the border issue to get the DUP onside, then squeeze over the line with Labour rebels help.

 

 

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EU has released a paper today

 

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication-preparing-withdrawal-brexit-preparedness.pdf

 

Main consequences of UK leaving the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement include (see page numbered 5):

 

[TABLE=width: 556]

 

[TR]

[TD]Border issues: The European Union must apply its regulation and tariffs at borders with the United Kingdom as a third country, including checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards and verification of compliance with EU norms. Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, e.g. in road transport, and difficulties for ports.

 

[/TD]

 

[/TR]

 

[/TABLE]

[Batman]

The EU/Ireland have said THEY will not be putting up a hard border under any circumstances.

 

When the hell was the fuss about as this has been the UK stance from day dot.

Even scrolling up this thread one or two were getting agitated about a return to violence and all that.

[benjii]

The EU/Ireland have said THEY will not be putting up a hard border under any circumstances.

 

When the hell was the fuss about as this has been the UK stance from day dot.

Even scrolling up this thread one or two were getting agitated about a return to violence and all that.

 

Well, the link I just posted, which is an official EU paper released today, does not say that at all.

[Batman]

Well, the link I just posted, which is an official EU paper released today, does not say that at all.

 

The Irish PM has been quoted saying it won’t be happening, by him or the EU.

[benjii]

EU has released a paper today

 

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication-preparing-withdrawal-brexit-preparedness.pdf

 

Main consequences of UK leaving the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement include (see page numbered 5):

 

[TABLE=width: 556]

[TR]

[TD]Border issues: The European Union must apply its regulation and tariffs at borders with the United Kingdom as a third country, including checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards and verification of compliance with EU norms. Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, e.g. in road transport, and difficulties for ports.

 

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

The Irish PM has been quoted saying it won’t be happening, by him or the EU.

 

I guess it depends whether you attach more weight to a quote from a single member state politician or to a paper setting out the considered opinion of the European Commission. It would seem odd if the Irish PM could guarantee something specifically flagged as being a concern in a paper issued the same day.

 

Where are these Leo Varadkar quotes?

Edited 19 July, 2018 by benjii

[hypochondriac]

I guess it depends whether you attach more weight to a quote from a single member state politician or to a paper setting out the considered opinion of the European Commission. It would seem odd if the Irish PM could guarantee something specifically flagged as being a concern in a paper issued the same day.

 

Where are these Leo Varadkar quotes?

 

I'd like to see them try. Not a chance will they put a hard border on Ireland.

[Guided Missile]

I guess it depends whether you attach more weight to a quote from a single member state politician or to a paper setting out the considered opinion of the European Commission. It would seem odd if the Irish PM could guarantee something specifically flagged as being a concern in a paper issued the same day.

 

Where are these Leo Varadkar quotes?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eu-calms-varadkar-s-fears-of-physical-border-checks-after-brexit-1.3569485

[View From The Top]

The obvious place for a 3rd country border, which has to be in place under WTO rules so we cannot not have one, is down the middle of the Irish Sea. That option is, of course, totally unacceptable to the DUP who currently prop up this shower of sh_it.

 

Tough choices ahead but it's not as if they've not known that from the get go.

[Lord Duckhunter]

The obvious place for a 3rd country border, which has to be in place under WTO rules so we cannot not have one, is down the middle of the Irish Sea. That option is, of course, totally unacceptable to the DUP who currently prop up this shower of sh_it.

 

Tough choices ahead but it's not as if they've not known that from the get go.

 

Canada style deal with hard border would be my option, but as you say DUP would never buy a U.K. internal one . I'm sure a U.K. /Eire one could be fudged, as the EU are masters of fudge, but because May is so ****ing useless they've no need to.

 

 

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[Cabbage_Face]

Any form of hard border in Ireland will be a mess.

 

 

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[badgerx16]

Any form of hard border in Ireland will be a mess.

It would be absolutely impossible to police and control.

[hypochondriac]

It would be absolutely impossible to police and control.

It's not going to happen. Neither side want it and both realise it would be absolute political suicide.

[badgerx16]

It's not going to happen. Neither side want it and both realise it would be absolute political suicide.

Which means that a 'hard' or 'no deal' Brexit is impossible.

[Portugalsaint]

Really Johnny Boy are you totally stupid, ban someone posting because you don’t like it.

 

Rascist, I hold a UK passport so can return whenever I please.

 

Let’s hope they don’t let YOU go to Europe after end March 2019.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Depends on definition of a hard border. It won’t be as frictionless as it is now, but it’s perfectly feasible to make it as frictionless as possible with as close to zero infrastructure as required , but it would take both sides to want that. Why on earth would the EU agree to it when May will bend over and take anything they want to give her. Another leader may be able to insert more influence on them.

 

 

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[shurlock]

Really Johnny Boy are you totally stupid, ban someone posting because you don’t like it.

 

Rascist, I hold a UK passport so can return whenever I please.

 

Let’s hope they don’t let YOU go to Europe after end March 2019.

 

Good lad.

[Jonnyboy]

Really Johnny Boy are you totally stupid, ban someone posting because you don’t like it.

 

Rascist, I hold a UK passport so can return whenever I please.

 

Let’s hope they don’t let YOU go to Europe after end March 2019.

 

[rallyboy]

The people have sent a weak and unstable idiot out to play poker on our behalf with a hand containing a two, a library card, one Top Trump and Mrs Bun the Baker's wife, and those who froth at the mouth the most are now looking surprised that it's all going a little bit Pete.

[badgerx16]

...It won’t be as frictionless as it is now, but it’s perfectly feasible to make it as frictionless as possible with as close to zero infrastructure as required...

It's not a case of making it "as frictionless as possible", it's more the case that it will be more porous than a colander.

[scotty]

Depends on definition of a hard border. It won’t be as frictionless as it is now, but it’s perfectly feasible to make it as frictionless as possible with as close to zero infrastructure as required , but it would take both sides to want that. Why on earth would the EU agree to it when May will bend over and take anything they want to give her. Another leader may be able to insert more influence on them.

 

 

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Freudian slip?

[Lord Duckhunter]

It's not a case of making it "as frictionless as possible", it's more the case that it will be more porous than a colander.

 

I'd imagine every border between 2 liberal democracies is pretty porous.

 

Which border is more frictionless, the one between Turkey & The Eu or the one between US & Canada.

 

 

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Edited 20 July, 2018 by Lord Duckhunter

[hypochondriac]

Which means that a 'hard' or 'no deal' Brexit is impossible.

Not really. It's not going to happen, but what do you think the outcome would be if the UK just said its a matter for the EU and refused to implement a hard border? The EU wouldn't dare.

[benjii]

I think the point is that no one wants a hard border there.

 

The EU's solution is for a border in the Irish Sea. We have rejected that.

 

So we could just say, "it's your problem Rep. Ireland / EU". However that makes a withdrawal agreement extremely unlikely.

[Cabbage_Face]

Really Johnny Boy are you totally stupid, ban someone posting because you don’t like it.

 

Rascist, I hold a UK passport so can return whenever I please.

 

Let’s hope they don’t let YOU go to Europe after end March 2019.

 

****s gone down

[whelk]

Warming to this woman

 

https://twitter.com/_SalmanAnwar/status/1018915650910277632/video/1

[Lord Duckhunter]

Barnier has ripped into May’s turd plan today, calling it “unfair” and possibly illegal. Interesting that he’s taking that approach to this. I really thought he’d be more accommodating publicly, moving the negotiations on, luring her in thinking a deals imminent before demanding other concessions when it’s too late to back out. His approach today is certainly going to annoy leavers that will just about stomach May’s sell out, and is certainly going to harden opposition to May. She’s given him a watered down compromise and his chucked it back in her face.

 

Without going over the same old arguments again, I wonder what people make of this. To me there’s only 2 tactical reasons he’s done this. One is to allow May to claim she’s broken him down, and in the face of EU not wanting this “bad” deal for them, forced it through. Or two, he genuinely believes it, and the EU will stick to their principles. If that’s the case, fair play, I’m sure Leavers will say they told us so. However, from a hard Brexit point of view, the worst outcome is May being able to say “this must be a good deal for the UK because the EU hate it, and think it’s unfair on them”. One thing is for sure, if The EU do dismiss turd plan out of hand it’s a lot easier to make the argument that they don’t want a deal, and we’ve tried but they’ve been unreasonable.

 

 

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[shurlock]

Edit

Edited 20 July, 2018 by shurlock

[benjii]

Barnier has ripped into May’s turd plan today, calling it “unfair” and possibly illegal. Interesting that he’s taking that approach to this. I really thought he’d be more accommodating publicly, moving the negotiations on, luring her in thinking a deals imminent before demanding other concessions when it’s too late to back out. His approach today is certainly going to annoy leavers that will just about stomach May’s sell out, and is certainly going to harden opposition to May. She’s given him a watered down compromise and his chucked it back in her face.

 

Without going over the same old arguments again, I wonder what people make of this. To me there’s only 2 tactical reasons he’s done this. One is to allow May to claim she’s broken him down, and in the face of EU not wanting this “bad” deal for them, forced it through. Or two, he genuinely believes it, and the EU will stick to their principles. If that’s the case, fair play, I’m sure Leavers will say they told us so. However, from a hard Brexit point of view, the worst outcome is May being able to say “this must be a good deal for the UK because the EU hate it, and think it’s unfair on them”. One thing is for sure, if The EU do dismiss turd plan out of hand it’s a lot easier to make the argument that they don’t want a deal, and we’ve tried but they’ve been unreasonable.

 

 

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I'm not sure there is a huge amount of "tactics" on the EU side. They have rules and principles and they apply them. You can't carry consensus of 27 countries by playing tactics, you have to follow rules.

 

Sometimes they couch statements in language that might have a political or tactical slant but their main positions are rules-driven.

[badgerx16]

The Government have apparently made a horlicks of translating it's proposals into EU languages, and even the Welsh version has grammatical errors. It seems, according to BBC R4 this evening, that they might even have been using Google translate to do the work for them.

 

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/translations-of-british-brexit-plan-provoke-ridicule/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1531974460

 

https://www.ft.com/content/bc3153b0-8c10-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340

[colehillsaint]

The Government have apparently made a horlicks of translating it's proposals into EU languages, and even the Welsh version has grammatical errors. It seems, according to BBC R4 this evening, that they might even have been using Google translate to do the work for them.

 

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/translations-of-british-brexit-plan-provoke-ridicule/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1531974460

 

https://www.ft.com/content/bc3153b0-8c10-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340

 

The whole thing is like one of those big projects that often goes massively wrong, over time and over budget, but in this case, on a gargantuan scale. Compare what our government now has to do, in taking over administration that it hasn’t run for perhaps 40 years, with the usual things it messes up, like large defence procurements or IT system replacements. If you have some insulation from it’s effects it might prove to be an epic political spectacle.

[Lord Duckhunter]

I'm not sure there is a huge amount of "tactics" on the EU side. They have rules and principles and they apply them. You can't carry consensus of 27 countries by playing tactics, you have to follow rules.

 

Sometimes they couch statements in language that might have a political or tactical slant but their main positions are rules-driven.

 

Let’s hope so. If they won’t give an inch on some areas, free movement in particular, there’s zero chance of anything other than a clean break.

 

This is what Donald Tusk said in March

 

“Now, coming to the core of our future economic relationship. During my talks in London last Thursday, and in her speech last Friday, Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed that the UK will leave the Single Market, leave the customs union and leave the jurisdiction of the ECJ (European Court of Justice). Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the only remaining possible model is a free trade agreement. I hope that it will be ambitious and advanced – and we will do our best, as we did with other partners, such as Canada recently – but anyway it will only be a trade agreement.

 

I propose that we aim for a trade agreement covering all sectors and with zero tariffs on goods. Like other free trade agreements, it should address services.”

 

Why the **** May didn’t just take this and then spend the remaining time working out a solution to the NI border I’ll never know. Probably because she doesn’t want us to leave in the first place.

 

 

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[buctootim]

Why the **** May didn’t just take this and then spend the remaining time working out a solution to the NI border I’ll never know. Probably because she doesn’t want us to leave in the first place.

 

Because the Tories are so hopelessly divided, the majority is so small and she hasn't got bravery or leadership skills . She should have picked a side ages ago, set out a clear vision and dared rebel MPs to challenge her.

[shurlock]

Let’s hope so. If they won’t give an inch on some areas, free movement in particular, there’s zero chance of anything other than a clean break.

 

This is what Donald Tusk said in March

 

“Now, coming to the core of our future economic relationship. During my talks in London last Thursday, and in her speech last Friday, Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed that the UK will leave the Single Market, leave the customs union and leave the jurisdiction of the ECJ (European Court of Justice). Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the only remaining possible model is a free trade agreement. I hope that it will be ambitious and advanced – and we will do our best, as we did with other partners, such as Canada recently – but anyway it will only be a trade agreement.

 

I propose that we aim for a trade agreement covering all sectors and with zero tariffs on goods. Like other free trade agreements, it should address services.”

 

Why the **** May didn’t just take this and then spend the remaining time working out a solution to the NI border I’ll never know. Probably because she doesn’t want us to leave in the first place.

 

 

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Because the jihadists told her and the electorate cake and cherries were on the menu.

Edited 21 July, 2018 by shurlock

[Verbal]

Why the **** May didn’t just take this and then spend the remaining time working out a solution to the NI border I’ll never know. Probably because she doesn’t want us to leave in the first place.

 

A potted history of Brexit Jihadism:

 

1. Believe the Bus!

2. No one's saying we have the single market!

3. (Let's not even mention the customs union)

4. You'll be swamped by Turkish hordes!!

5. Cake and eat it.

6. Sunny uplands.

7. Project Fear!!

8. To hell with all experts

9. To hell with the Good Friday agreement

10. To hell with the single market

11. To hell with the customs union

12. **** business!

13. Remoaning traitors!

 

With this overflow of rage, I dread to think what happens next.