Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[badgerx16]

We need Trump...

Like a trump in a spacesuit.

[shurlock]

If you knew how the real world works then you would have predicted the referendum result and accurately assessed the impact on the economy of a leave vote. Now we know that the roof has not fallen in I think the line is that the 'economy would have been growing faster'. The trouble is that your exposure to people who voted out is limited to this forum. You are out of touch with the real world.

 

Where of course you are very naive is that EU unity would hold in the event of a Milbrook's 'Trump' style tough negotiating. Do you think when 100,000 French farmers were blocking Paris with their tractors because they had lost a £4bn market, potentially forever, you could just tell them its OK because we are going to screw their financial services. That is hardly going to help them. What about Spanish tourist chiefs - its OK the Brits are all holidaying at home for the next couple of years but you know what, their houses in London are worth 30% less. What about the Danish fisherman - sorry lads you will have to stay in Port now but just to make you feel better, Nissan have made 3000 Mackems redundant and they are hurting too. They would be banging on the Commission's door demanding they sort it out. So yes while it might be a high risk strategy there could be some mileage in it in my opinion.

 

So when did perfect foresight equate to not understanding how the real world works?

 

FWIW I didn’t think the economy would come crashing down. I could go into a lengthy discussion of how path dependencies and sunk costs mean that economic shocks take time before they filter through to the investment and consumption decisions of businesses and households. But the last time I mentioned anything remotely informed -Dani Rodrik was it- you got bizarrely triggered. Suffice to say, I do think a hard Brexit will be bad over the long-term for the economy and nothing in the economic data over the last two years -and Brexit hasn't happened yet- is inconsistent with that belief. While Jihadi John remains slow on the uptake, there's a reason sterling automatically jumps whenever there is a whiff that Brexit will be softened or watered down.

 

By contrast, you and your barmy cult were told how negotiations were likely to proceed and that your edifice of deluded claims and half-truths was unlikely to survive contact with reality. Remind me how many concessions has the UK wrought from the EU thanks to holding all the cards?

 

So now the best you can offer is not to face reality but to double down on the fantasy that the UK should have crashed out of the EU without triggering article 50 and entering negotiations. That’s not one I’ve heard from my Brexit supporting acquaintances before. In case you’re labouring under some confusion pal, the point of a negotiation is to maximise your leverage, not fatally weaken it. Always happy to help.

 

Edited 8 July, 2018 by shurlock

[Batman]

So when did perfect foresight equate to not understanding how the real world works?

 

FWIW I didn’t think the economy would come crashing down.

 

are you sure?

 

 

 

We've already gone through that particular forecast pal, the UK economy is now is serious ****. You and your little brigade made a fool of yourselves over it. However trust you dredge it up and embarrass yourself again.

[shurlock]

are you sure?

 

 

 

We've already gone through that particular forecast pal, the UK economy is now is serious ****. You and your little brigade made a fool of yourselves over it. However trust you dredge it up and embarrass yourself again.

 

Which forecast was that?

[buctootim]

are you sure?

 

 

 

We've already gone through that particular forecast pal, the UK economy is now is serious ****. You and your little brigade made a fool of yourselves over it. However trust you dredge it up and embarrass yourself again.

 

We still have a budget deficit ten years after the crash, despite almost full employment and growth is petering out. Debt is monumental, especially once you include pension liabilities and PFI. The slightest knock the house of cards, I dunno like for example no longer being able to trade as easily - would be a major major problem.

[Batman]

We still have a budget deficit ten years after the crash, despite almost full employment and growth is petering out. Debt is monumental, especially once you include pension liabilities and PFI. The slightest knock the house of cards, I dunno like for example no longer being able to trade as easily - would be a major major problem.

 

 

 

considering the immediate 2 years worth of predictions have been almost completely wrong. Amazing how the next 10 years is seemingly in the bag

[shurlock]

considering the immediate 2 years worth of predictions have been almost completely wrong. Amazing how the next 10 years is seemingly in the bag

 

 

I stand by it - it wasn't specifically about the Brexit referendum but the vulnerabilities facing the UK. This country's growth model is as unbalanced as it was before the crisis - big difference is that policymakers have fewer levers to pull when the s**t hits the fan next time.

Edited 8 July, 2018 by shurlock

[Jonnyboy]

Sorry but the only person who is a new level of dumb, is the person who thinks bailing from the eu will cause some sort of weird mad max style apocalypse. The greatest motivator of people is adversity, if people are facing disaster they will pull together and find something that works. Instead what we have is a bunch of self serving politicians trying to placate everyone and will end up making things 10 times worse mark my words.

 

If the politicians on both sides of the argument could be trusted to work together to work things out instead of screwing each other over then it would have been ok. Unfortunately they aint like that and they like to play games with peoples lives. Look what the eu done to greece for ****s sake. A whole generation ruined by the will of germany.

 

Unfortunately weak minded people like you have been brain washed into thinking that the eu is some sort of utopia. Don't get me wrong I'd have no problem with the common market, in fact it's a brilliant concept, the problem is over time they've wanted more and more power over the member nations and instead of it being a group of nations trading together it's become a political entity, now it feels like we're being controlled by some sort of weird politburo of europe. Look at the migrant crisis, every country was warning germany about it but merkel ignored them, letting in over 2 million without any proper checks. Now her premiership is being threatened suddenly they want to solve the problem and the eu is acting, to me that looks like the eu didn't give a damn about what anyone else was saying, but as soon as germany barks they jump.

 

Listen I'm sure you're a good guy and quite clearly our opinions differ but surely you can see that if everyone had accepted the result and worked together to make Brexit a success we would have been further down the road than where we are now, sometimes people need to put in a position where they're forced to act. It may not have been what everyone wanted but I'm sure no one wanted what's happening to our great country now.

 

Tell that to the ethiopians in a famine (back in the day). Just pull together and find something that works lads. F*ck the global macroeconomics.

[Guided Missile]

YOU HAVE BEEN WEIGHED, YOU HAVE BEEN MEASURED, AND YOU HAVE BEEN FOUND WANTING:

 

Breaking News

IMF warns Brexit could push UK back into recession, here.

 

IMF and the Independent on the ball, as usual.

 

 

We've already gone through that particular forecast pal. You and your little brigade made a fool of yourselves over it. However trust you dredge it up and embarrass yourself again.

Edited 8 July, 2018 by Guided Missile

[Guided Missile]

I like dredging. It's such a Southampton thing to do....

[Guided Missile]

...and with David Davis gone, welcome to a Hard Brexit. More good news...

[badgerx16]

...and with David Davis gone, welcome to a Hard Brexit. More good news...

The way things are going we'll have a split Tory party and a fresh GE before we get to the Brexit deadline.

[badgerx16]

I like dredging...

 

I'm sure there's a jibe about bottom feeders that could be worked out in response to that.

[Lord Duckhunter]

His department minister Steve Baker has also resigned. Boris needs man up and follow them.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shurlock]

YOU HAVE BEEN WEIGHED, YOU HAVE BEEN MEASURED, AND YOU HAVE BEEN FOUND WANTING:

 

 

 

Wrong. I wasn't endorsing it - only explaining how you jihadists had gloriously and moronically misunderstood the forecast, specifically the claim that the IMF had predicted a recession. In the process I explained the difference between a baseline scenario and an adverse scenario - some of you even backtracked. Go back and read page 12 of the thread chump. Still here pointing and laughing.

Edited 8 July, 2018 by shurlock

[shurlock]

Davo's done a Harry Redknapp. Better to play the victim and jump a sinking ship. Steve Baker, serial liar and ERG captain, also hugely influential gone. Possibly the beginning of the end of this shower of a PM and government. Odds of a no deal up. Time for parliament to step up and take control of the process.

Edited 9 July, 2018 by shurlock

[Verbal]

Excellent news. I'm only surprised it took so long. BoJo and Grayling next, so the rumours go, although what BoJo thinks about being DD's sloppy seconds one can only guess. Gove looks even more ridiculous now - assuming such a thing is possible.

 

And it's all further proof that neither major party can deliver Brexit without self-imploding.

 

Tick tock.

[John B]

The experts did explain to the right-wing brexidiot ideologues that they had no cards to play businesses wouldn’t go along with their ideas and neither would the EU and their dopey ideas would tank the economy and then public support would reduce as living standards fell and well paid jobs disappeared

[Batman]

The experts did explain to the right-wing brexidiot ideologues that they had no cards to play businesses wouldn’t go along with their ideas and neither would the EU and their dopey ideas would tank the economy and then public support would reduce as living standards fell and well paid jobs disappeared

 

The experts said a lot of things about the impact on just voting to leave

 

Almost every single prediction has been wrong.

[Cabbage_Face]

So it’s begins, the inevitable leadership change, the second vote on Brexit and us staying put. #votingchangesnothing

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[aintforever]

The Tories have created a right mess, 2 years for the cabinet to finally agree then this.

[Lord Duckhunter]

The Tories have created a right mess, 2 years for the cabinet to finally agree then this.

 

The remain Tory PM has created a right mess.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[John B]

The remain Tory PM has created a right mess.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

I think the mess has been caused by people like you

 

 

Because you don't understand that prosperity and thriving business doesn’t go together with insular, inward looking ‘taking back control’?

[Guided Missile]

Dominic Raab:

 

[shurlock]

Excellent news. The more jihadists are forced to eat their own cooking, the better.

Edited 9 July, 2018 by shurlock

[Guided Missile]

The games up for Theresa May. Let's hope her statement to the Commons at 3:30 PM is her resignation.

[trousers]

My hunch all along has been that Brexit won't happen. Still sticking with that prediction. Another referendum in October I reckon.

[Guided Missile]

My hunch all along has been that Brexit won't happen. Still sticking with that prediction. Another referendum in October I reckon.

Yeah, right. How about best out of three?

[Plastic]

Yeah, right. How about best out of three?

 

Id be surprised if the population voted for brexit again, even if we did a 'best of 10'.

Irrespective of whether its a good idea or not, its pretty obvious that this government cannot make it work.

All we have achieved so far is to harm the currency and cede the rebate. Will it be worth it based on the proposed deal? Highly unlikely I'd say.

[benjii]

I said at the time of the referendum result that what was needed was a standstill period followed by a general election, in which parties could campaign based on their Brexit manifesto. I still think this is what should have happened.

[trousers]

Yeah, right. How about best out of three?

If there is another referendum, it shouldn't simply be a re-run of the in/out referendum. The next one, if it takes place, should be asking people a different question...i.e. what do you think of the deal? Getting the public's opinion on the outcome is a logical step IMO. No agenda, just common sense.

[moonraker]

The experts said a lot of things about the impact on just voting to leave

 

Almost every single prediction has been wrong.

 

Have they, we may not have had Armageddon on day one, but major business is preparing to leave, growth has crashed, our currency is floundering, inward investment has plummeted, cost of living is rising fast, costs of Brexit are spiraling, simply we are poorer and more isolated as a nation it will only get worse if continue to pursue this gross act of self-harm . You might question the timing and scale of some of these negatives effect of Brexit but all were predicted. Conversely the promises of the leave campaign have all proven vacuous platitudes.

[moonraker]

I don't understand the quitters opposition to a second referendum, if s they claim everything will still be sunny uplands and the will of the people is even stronger in favor of leave it would then they have nothing to fear. Democracy a continuous process not an event.

[Cabbage_Face]

My hunch all along has been that Brexit won't happen. Still sticking with that prediction. Another referendum in October I reckon.

 

This. EU make it impossible to leave

Edited 9 July, 2018 by Cabbage_Face

[buctootim]

If there is another referendum, it shouldn't simply be a re-run of the in/out referendum. The next one, if it takes place, should be asking people a different question...i.e. what do you think of the deal? Getting the public's opinion on the outcome is a logical step IMO. No agenda, just common sense.

 

I think there should be a second referendum but its hard to see how it would work with effectively three options - accepting the deal as the best achievable; leaving with no deal or staying in.

[shurlock]

You wouldn't think that the jihadists had a detailed plan for nearly 30 years. This clip doesn't get old

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/748636642580307968/video/1

[buctootim]

This. EU make it hard a possible to leave

 

Not really. Its been clear from the outset that they wont, can't, allow countries to pick and mix the bits they want and leave the bits they don't. You cant have a members club with all the members on different benefits and different commitments. You're either In, in the EEA and the Customs Union, or an external third party. Those have always been the choices and the idea sold by Leave politicians that we could cherry pick from the EU and also get super duper easy deals with the rest of the world was always a lie.

Edited 9 July, 2018 by buctootim

[buctootim]

You wouldn't think that the jihadists had a detailed plan for nearly 30 years. This clip doesn't get old

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/748636642580307968/video/1

 

Jeez I always assumed it was a total clusterf#ck because leavers hadn't given any serious thought to what happens after. I had no idea it was a carefully planned clusterf#ck

[OldNick]

The games up for Theresa May. Let's hope her statement to the Commons at 3:30 PM is her resignation.

Well I wouldn't celebrate as Jeremy will love to take all you have once he comes to power.

All those Tory voters who bragged that they joined the Labour party to vote for Corbyn is really backfiring.

The whole Brexit deal should have been done under a coalition as in wartime, because as far as I'm concerned this is the biggest decision our nation has faced since the start of WWII.

The Brexiteers should be confident enough for us to have a second vote, but this time there should be a 10% margin if not the last result would stand.

They could then have the moral high ground and the remainers would have to accept the result.

[shurlock]

Bojo the clown gone.

[Cabbage_Face]

Goodbye May. Governments a mess. Hello Jezza

[edprice1984]

Boris has gone too.

[OldNick]

David Davies left as he knows whoever signs off Brexit will go down in history as a terrible politician. He can go back to the back benches and snipe.

We have no hope while the politicians are not united. The Eu have not broken ranks and so they have kept a strong bargaining position Our MP's are just interested in their own power rather than what is best for the country

[OldNick]

Boris gone as he can see his chance for being leader. Gove come out in support of May to cosy up to the Remainers in the party. God what with Salisbury things are pretty depressing at the moment. Thank heavens for the football

[Cabbage_Face]

Bojo the clown gone.

 

 

He could be back, as PM. Not that it'll effect Scotland much.

[Lord Duckhunter]

The Brexiteers should be confident enough for us to have a second vote, but this time there should be a 10% margin if not the last result would stand.

They could then have the moral high ground and the remainers would have to accept the result.

 

Do you really believe remoaners would accept us still leaving even if they won a second vote, what planet are you on. They won’t accept 52/48 as a vote to leave , Sony they’re hardly going to accept 44/56 means we leave.

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[hypochondriac]

What is the point of this idiotic plan that pleases nobody? If you're going to leave then leave or just stay in. At least if May came out and said that she was staying you could respect her honesty and knew where she stood.

 

If we are going to do this half in plan where we are dictated to by the EU then we should stay.

[buctootim]

Do you really believe remoaners would accept us still leaving even if they won a second vote, what planet are you on. They won’t accept 52/48 as a vote to leave , Sony they’re hardly going to accept 44/56 means we leave.

 

Leaving the EU is a major constitutional change. The original vote should have required a 60:40 majority tbf

[shurlock]

Liam Fox can't be far behind, surely? Can't see Gove leaving after his sucking up job on yesterday's morning politics shows.

[trousers]

Leaving the EU is a major constitutional change. The original vote should have required a 60:40 majority tbf

Agree with this. I believe Farage advocated something similar before the referendum...