Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Batman]

Don’t think there was much anti immigration. More a case of full control.

[shurlock]

Don’t think there was much anti immigration. More a case of full control.

 

Brexit was largely about immigration - that's what all the evidence and data suggest anyway.

[Sheaf Saint]

Don’t think there was much anti immigration. More a case of full control.

 

Seriously?

 

Among the numerous arguments in favour of leave that I read online, I would say that the ill-informed, ignorant and often outright racist anti-immigration ones are in the majority.

[aintforever]

Seriously?

 

Among the numerous arguments in favour of leave that I read online, I would say that the ill-informed, ignorant and often outright racist anti-immigration ones are in the majority.

 

I guess some are more effected by immigration than others. There is plenty of ignorance among those who favour mass uncontrolled immigration regardless of its consequences.

[scotty]

Brexit was largely about immigration - that's what all the evidence and data suggest anyway.

 

The anti immigration lobby were certainly the loudest ones shouting, but I'd agree with batman on this one. I don't personally think it was the primary motivation for the result.

[ericb]

The anti immigration lobby were certainly the loudest ones shouting, but I'd agree with batman on this one. I don't personally think it was the primary motivation for the result.

 

Absolutely every single piece of research, data and surveys (including from the right) show immigration was exactly what Brexit was about, Farage even posed infront of a poster of queues of people supposedly entering the country and was rightly mocked for how it co-opted an almost identical poster from the nazi era.

 

A massive swathe of the pro leave campaign was run on anti immigration rhetoric, taking back control of borders, wages being dragged down by EU workers etc. Post Brexit attacks on immigrants rose to an unprecedented level, even the last month a spanish woman was dragged by her hair along the tube for speaking spanish.

 

There's been a hell of a lot of revisionism around Brexit, but to claim immigration wasn't a massive part of the Leave campaign, and a key factor in a lot of people's decision, is beyond revisionism and into propaganda.

 

It may not have been your reason, but that doesn't mean it wasn't still a significant reason.

[Johnny Bognor]

Seriously?

 

Among the numerous arguments in favour of leave that I read online, I would say that the ill-informed, ignorant and often outright racist anti-immigration ones are in the majority.

 

I would say that those who favour uncontrolled and unrestricted immigration of white people from the EU, at the expense of others from India, Africa and beyond are probably a bit racist too.

[shurlock]

I would say that those who favour uncontrolled and unrestricted immigration of white people from the EU, at the expense of others from India, Africa and beyond are probably a bit racist too.

 

You've got to do better than that balders if you fancy yourself against o'brien.

 

Btw I've got a real-life pal who owes me a favour and could probably get you on the show. Interested?

[shurlock]

Absolutely every single piece of research, data and surveys (including from the right) show immigration was exactly what Brexit was about, Farage even posed infront of a poster of queues of people supposedly entering the country and was rightly mocked for how it co-opted an almost identical poster from the nazi era.

 

A massive swathe of the pro leave campaign was run on anti immigration rhetoric, taking back control of borders, wages being dragged down by EU workers etc. Post Brexit attacks on immigrants rose to an unprecedented level, even the last month a spanish woman was dragged by her hair along the tube for speaking spanish.

 

There's been a hell of a lot of revisionism around Brexit, but to claim immigration wasn't a massive part of the Leave campaign, and a key factor in a lot of people's decision, is beyond revisionism and into propaganda.

 

It may not have been your reason, but that doesn't mean it wasn't still a significant reason.

 

Agree - well said.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-news-leave-eu-immigration-main-reason-european-union-survey-a7811651.html

 

Worth remembering that until the EU was weaponised by immigration which was farage's genius, it was a nonissue for most people. Freaks and headbangers like Cash, Rees-Mogg and Hannan may have been banging on about EU regulation and parliamentary sovereignty for years but these issues simply didn't resonate.

 

Indeed, they didn't resonate with most Conservative voters, traditionally the most eurosceptic constituency. In the 2010 british election survey, a microscopic 0.7 per cent of Conservative voters identified Europe or the Euro as the most important issue. The EU did not even make the top ten issues among respondents questioned in February 2013, despite Cameron’s famous Bloomberg speech. Needless to say, immigration featured significantly higher

Edited 1 May, 2018 by shurlock

[Sheaf Saint]

The anti immigration lobby were certainly the loudest ones shouting, but I'd agree with batman on this one. I don't personally think it was the primary motivation for the result.

 

Absolute b0llocks. It was the single biggest factor that swung the result in Leave's favour.

 

Did you not watch the news in the aftermath of the referendum? All the vox pops showing people up to be thick as pigsh!t because they thought that voting for Brexit would stop immigration from Islamic countries?

[scotty]

Absolute b0llocks. It was the single biggest factor that swung the result in Leave's favour.

 

Did you not watch the news in the aftermath of the referendum? All the vox pops showing people up to be thick as pigsh!t because they thought that voting for Brexit would stop immigration from Islamic countries?

 

If you believe that, then given the referendum result you must by definition believe that a majority of the voting population of the UK is fundamentally racist. It's possible, but I don't accept it myself.

 

My own view is that the vote was primarily about whether or not we continued along the road towards ever further integration into a european superstate superceding national interests, which is the aim of the project. Some countries are happy with that, the UK clearly isn't.

[shurlock]

If you believe that, then given the referendum result you must by definition believe that a majority of the voting population of the UK is fundamentally racist. It's possible, but I don't accept it myself.

 

My own view is that the vote was primarily about whether or not we continued along the road towards ever further integration into a european superstate superceding national interests, which is the aim of the project. Some countries are happy with that, the UK clearly isn't.

 

It was primarily about immigration - the National Centre for Social Research, the most authoritative organisation to track public attitudes in the country, concluded as much.

 

Just because it was primarily immigration doesn't make those people xenophobic or racist, at least in my book.

Edited 1 May, 2018 by shurlock

[scotty]

It was primarily about immigration - the National Centre for Social Research, the most authoritative organisation to track public attitudes in the country, concluded as much.

 

Just because it was primarily immigration doesn't make those people xenophobic or racist, at least in my book.

 

It's not as simple as just saying it was all about immigration. Border control is only one of the issues tied up in full integration, along with fiscal and legal issues, not to mention the inevitability of the single currency had we continued down that path. It's a cop-out to reduce the result to one single issue which happens to have been squealed about by the gutter media more loudly than anything else, and pretty insulting to the 55% of voters who decided we're better off out of it. You could equally deride the remain side for being a single issue flock of sheep who tried to give away our sovereignty for a few more short term euros in their own pockets, the reality is that both sides had multiple reasons for voting the way they did.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

The reason that people voted for Brexit in my opinion were straight forward;

 

It was assumed that we would vote in - you could 7:1 on a leave vote on the day. People felt they could protest and not change anything

Free movement. A policy that allowed free movement from places with an average wage of 300 Euros a month to 2500 Euros without any restrictions

The way Cameron was treated when he tried to negotiate a better deal.

[shurlock]

The reason that people voted for Brexit in my opinion were straight forward;

 

It was assumed that we would vote in - you could 7:1 on a leave vote on the day. People felt they could protest and not change anything

Free movement. A policy that allowed free movement from places with an average wage of 300 Euros a month to 2500 Euros without any restrictions

The way Cameron was treated when he tried to negotiate a better deal.

 

And NatCen's opinion is "For leave voters, the vote was particularly about immigration and the social consequences of it.We find a bit of correlation with people who don’t trust Government, but that’s not nearly as strong. Two biggest guides to why people voted leave were those most concerned with immigration and those with a lower level of education...Many politicians have come out and said it was all about sovereignty and other things, but our findings indicate this isn't the case".

[hypochondriac]

The reason that people voted for Brexit in my opinion were straight forward;

 

It was assumed that we would vote in - you could 7:1 on a leave vote on the day. People felt they could protest and not change anything

Free movement. A policy that allowed free movement from places with an average wage of 300 Euros a month to 2500 Euros without any restrictions

The way Cameron was treated when he tried to negotiate a better deal.

Yeah pretty much this. The third reason you state was the clincher for me and the contempt that Cameron was held in solidified my vote.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

And NatCen's opinion is "For leave voters, the vote was particularly about immigration and the social consequences of it.We find a bit of correlation with people who don’t trust Government, but that’s not nearly as strong. Two biggest guides to why people voted leave were those most concerned with immigration and those with a lower level of education...Many politicians have come out and said it was all about sovereignty and other things, but our findings indicate this isn't the case".

 

I don't think you can underestimate that people thought we would vote to stay in. That is why we ended up leaving because people like me voted out thinking there would be no risk. As it happens despite the dramatic slowdown to 0.1% growth in quarter 1, the sky has not fallen in as we were told and I would vote out more comfortably now. If there was a referendum tomorrow you would find that all the people who voted out would still vote out plus a few more. I think however we would vote to stay in the EU because the turnout would be higher and most of the new voters would vote in.

[shurlock]

Yeah pretty much this. The third reason you state was the clincher for me and the contempt that Cameron was held in solidified my vote.

 

The way that the Cameron was treated? The UK has enjoyed opt-outs and rebates for years - it has the cushiest deal of all member states in terms of rights and responsibilities. It speaks to the sheer delusion and arrogance of the British that not only were concessions were insufficient but Cameron and the UK were somehow the victims.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

The way that the Cameron was treated? The UK has enjoyed opt-outs and rebates for years - it has the cushiest deal of all member states in terms of rights and responsibilities. It speaks to the sheer delusion and arrogance of the British that not only were concessions were insufficient but Cameron and the UK were somehow the victims.

 

All that Europe had to do was to let Cameron implement reasonable restrictions on claiming benefits and to make sure that people travelling to the UK had a job to go to. To not recognise that with a population rising at 300,000+ annually with no form of migration control from Europe was a major concern was either stupid or arrogant.

[shurlock]

I don't think you can underestimate that people thought we would vote to stay in. That is why we ended up leaving because people like me voted out thinking there would be no risk. As it happens despite the dramatic slowdown to 0.1% growth in quarter 1, the sky has not fallen in as we were told and I would vote out more comfortably now. If there was a referendum tomorrow you would find that all the people who voted out would still vote out plus a few more. I think however we would vote to stay in the EU because the turnout would be higher and most of the new voters would vote in.

 

I don't doubt that some saw 'leave' as a protest vote, especially as they thought it would have few, if any consequences.

 

However, in the aggregate, all the data suggests that immigration was the main factor (uncomfortable as that may be to you). I'd also say that the idea of risk-free no vote demonstrates a poor understanding of history. The historical record from over well 250 national referenda since 1990 reveals that the change option -leave in the case of Brexit- has won nearly 70% of the time. To the extent that polling put leave neck-and-neck with remain, if not ahead of it during the campaign and referenda favour change, there was every chance that leave would win. A free vote, it certainly wasn't.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

I don't doubt that some saw 'leave' as a protest vote, especially as they thought it would have few, if any consequences.

 

However, in the aggregate, all the data suggests that immigration was the main factor (uncomfortable as that may be to you). I'd also say that the idea of risk-free no vote demonstrates a poor understanding of history. The historical record from over well 250 national referenda since 1990 reveals that the change option -leave in the case of Brexit- has won nearly 70% of the time. To the extent that polling put leave neck-and-neck with remain, if not ahead of it during the campaign and referenda favour change, there was every chance that leave would win. A free vote, it certainly wasn't.

 

I would not contest that immigration was the main factor. The rising population has implications for everybody.

 

70% is an interesting statistic but I think you have to look at each referendum individually. A vote to change gay marriage is always going to be easier to win that an independence vote for Scotland. For the bookmakers to give 7 to 1 in a two horse race indicates how most felt the vote would go. I would argue that this undoubtedly tipped the balance. It is the same factor that inflated the Labour vote in last years election - people felt they could vote Labour and still not get Corbyn.

[OldNick]

I don't think you can underestimate that people thought we would vote to stay in. That is why we ended up leaving because people like me voted out thinking there would be no risk. As it happens despite the dramatic slowdown to 0.1% growth in quarter 1, the sky has not fallen in as we were told and I would vote out more comfortably now. If there was a referendum tomorrow you would find that all the people who voted out would still vote out plus a few more. I think however we would vote to stay in the EU because the turnout would be higher and most of the new voters would vote in.

Interesting that you would still vote out. I believe in 3 years or so that the feeling will change for you.

We are going to end up with a pig in a poke,and we are going to be so screwed by our European friends that we will be stuffed.

The US 'allies' have already said that to agree the air routes into the US ,will end with a lot of our airlines having to sacrifice some of their flights to allow the US airlines more of the cake. This is going to be many fold as we are in such a weak position that the deals we strike will be poorer than we would have got normally. It is death by a thousand trade deals, i'm afraid.

Iam very proud to be British but that didn't blind me to the threats to us leaving the EU. The Eu constitution rules were always stacked against us, and was obvious we were stuffed. Early in this thread I posted an article from the Economist stating what the rules were. This was before the vote

[Batman]

Interesting that you would still vote out. I believe in 3 years or so that the feeling will change for you.

We are going to end up with a pig in a poke,and we are going to be so screwed by our European friends that we will be stuffed.

The US 'allies' have already said that to agree the air routes into the US ,will end with a lot of our airlines having to sacrifice some of their flights to allow the US airlines more of the cake. This is going to be many fold as we are in such a weak position that the deals we strike will be poorer than we would have got normally. It is death by a thousand trade deals, i'm afraid.

Iam very proud to be British but that didn't blind me to the threats to us leaving the EU. The Eu constitution rules were always stacked against us, and was obvious we were stuffed. Early in this thread I posted an article from the Economist stating what the rules were. This was before the vote

 

Every week for the last few years, this is said. Yet it does not happen.

 

The doomsday that Osborne said was coming for just voting to leave...... where is it

[hypochondriac]

The way that the Cameron was treated? The UK has enjoyed opt-outs and rebates for years - it has the cushiest deal of all member states in terms of rights and responsibilities. It speaks to the sheer delusion and arrogance of the British that not only were concessions were insufficient but Cameron and the UK were somehow the victims.

There weren't any substantial concessions which was the entire point. Cameron watered down what he was going to ask for and the EU came back with absolutely nothing. Most of the EU states now admit that they need reform but none of them can agree on anything substantial which just highlights its whole problem.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Interesting that you would still vote out. I believe in 3 years or so that the feeling will change for you.

We are going to end up with a pig in a poke,and we are going to be so screwed by our European friends that we will be stuffed.

The US 'allies' have already said that to agree the air routes into the US ,will end with a lot of our airlines having to sacrifice some of their flights to allow the US airlines more of the cake. This is going to be many fold as we are in such a weak position that the deals we strike will be poorer than we would have got normally. It is death by a thousand trade deals, i'm afraid.

Iam very proud to be British but that didn't blind me to the threats to us leaving the EU. The Eu constitution rules were always stacked against us, and was obvious we were stuffed. Early in this thread I posted an article from the Economist stating what the rules were. This was before the vote

 

It is in nobody's interest to not get a deal signed so I am sure that we will. I am not naïve in thinking that our friends in the US will do us any favours but I think in time Brexit will give us more flexibility to operate in the global marketplace. I think if we had stayed in our voice would have been even weaker because the issue would have been settled. Ultimately I am pro business and if there is a sharp deterioration then I would be back in like a shot.

[badgerx16]

 

The doomsday that Osborne said was coming for just voting to leave...... where is it

Nothing has changed, yet.

[hypochondriac]

Osborne predicted doomsday immediately after the leave vote, not after we had left.

Nothing has changed, yet.

[Batman]

Nothing has changed, yet.

 

Not what Osborne told us all though.

[badgerx16]

Osborne predicted doomsday immediately after the leave vote, not after we had left.

Not what Osborne told us all though.

Osborne was scare mongering - a typical lying career politician serving his own ends, as were found on both sides of the referendum.

[Sheaf Saint]

Not what Osborne told us all though.

 

So a man with a 2:2 in history and whose only pre-government job experience was towel-folding in a hotel got his economic prediction wrong. He also told us we would have the deficit cleared by 2015. How's that coming along?

 

Not everyone who voted remain did so because they are so f*cking stupid as to believe what a Tory MP tells them you know.

[benjii]

He also told us we would have the deficit cleared by 2015. How's that coming along?

.

 

It went into surplus last November on a 12 month rolling basis.

[Batman]

So a man with a 2:2 in history and whose only pre-government job experience was towel-folding in a hotel got his economic prediction wrong. He also told us we would have the deficit cleared by 2015. How's that coming along?

 

Not everyone who voted remain did so because they are so f*cking stupid as to believe what a Tory MP tells them you know.

 

It was the official government line. Not just his opinion.

[Weston Super Saint]

So a man with a 2:2 in history and whose only pre-government job experience was towel-folding in a hotel got his economic prediction wrong. He also told us we would have the deficit cleared by 2015. How's that coming along?

 

Not everyone who voted remain did so because they are so f*cking stupid as to believe what a Tory MP tells them you know.

 

No wonder the country's screwed if its entire economic predictions were entrusted to just one person - and that person only got a 2:2 in History

[Sheaf Saint]

It went into surplus last November on a 12 month rolling basis.

 

Fair enough. I must have missed that news.

Doesn't change the fact that Osborne got his prediction wrong though.

[hypochondriac]

Fair enough. I must have missed that news.

Doesn't change the fact that Osborne got his prediction wrong though.

Or that it wasn't just the Osborne's prediction but the predictions of loads of people...

[buctootim]

It went into surplus last November on a 12 month rolling basis.

 

Erm. Not quite. The current account is in surplus but that ignores capital expenditure. Another £42 billion of new borrowing in 2017/18. Probably a further £25bn on top in 2018/19

[Verbal]

Erm. Not quite. The current account is in surplus but that ignores capital expenditure. Another £42 billion of new borrowing in 2017/18. Probably a further £25bn on top in 2018/19

 

Yes, but if you do away with experts the deficit disappears.

[shurlock]

There weren't any substantial concessions which was the entire point. Cameron watered down what he was going to ask for and the EU came back with absolutely nothing. Most of the EU states now admit that they need reform but none of them can agree on anything substantial which just highlights its whole problem.

 

He didn’t come back with “absolutely nothing”. Among other things he secured concessions on in-work and out-of-work benefits along with the indexation of child benefits - clearly they weren’t game-changers but they were exceptions that no other EU member state enjoys.

 

The larger point is why is the UK is so special that it is exempt from rules that apply to everyone else, especially when it insists on enjoying the benefits and shaping other rules in its favour? To any reasonable person, that’s called special pleading and cherrypicking. Brexiteers should honest and admit they don’t like the EU rather than moralise and claim that the UK has been contemptuously treated. I have no principled issue with that.

 

The other point is why hasn’t the UK taken advantage of the flexibilities in EU law to apply restrictions to freedom of movement? That the UK hasn’t and others have has nowt to do with the EU and everything to do with home-grown choices and decisions.

Edited 3 May, 2018 by shurlock

[Lord Duckhunter]

The problem with Cameron’s “re negotiation” was nobody believed for one nano second that he’d campaign to leave if he didn’t get a good deal. Even he didn’t believe it, thinking he could do a Harold Wilson and come back with **** all, but spin it as a major reform. The EU never believed it, and thought the vote was in the bag anyway. They didn’t even bother with the pretence of pretending he’d negotiated a decent deal. His incompetence & complacency cost Leave the referendum , not some words on a bus. You can’t go round pretending to be a Euro sceptic stating without reform you will vote leave and then campaign passionately for remaining, not when you’ve got **** all reform.

 

 

 

 

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[Sergei Gotsmanov]

The problem with Cameron’s “re negotiation” was nobody believed for one nano second that he’d campaign to leave if he didn’t get a good deal. Even he didn’t believe it, thinking he could do a Harold Wilson and come back with **** all, but spin it as a major reform. The EU never believed it, and thought the vote was in the bag anyway. They didn’t even bother with the pretence of pretending he’d negotiated a decent deal. His incompetence & complacency cost Leave the referendum , not some words on a bus. You can’t go round pretending to be a Euro sceptic stating without reform you will vote leave and then campaign passionately for remaining, not when you’ve got **** all reform.

 

 

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Cameron wanted to come back with a bit of paper to wave around like Chamberlain. The EU gambled that they would win the referendum and made him come back virtually empty handed.

[trousers]

Fair enough. I must have missed that news.

Doesn't change the fact that Osborne got his prediction wrong though.

 

As did his referendum buddy Darling...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu

 

The chancellor will spell out his concerns at an event where he will be joined by his predecessor, Alistair Darling. The Labour politician will say he is more worried now than he was during the 2008 financial crisis, arguing that a Brexit vote will result in not just one emergency budget but “one after another”.

 

The pair will publish an “illustrative budget scorecard” comprising a long list of the sort of measures they say may have to be implemented

[Pamplemousse]

The EU didn't care either way. Brexit really isn't a major issue for Brussels, they have bigger fish to fry and bigger trade deals to negotiate. Seriously, it barely gets mentioned in any of the European media, they really don't care.

[hypochondriac]

The EU didn't care either way. Brexit really isn't a major issue for Brussels, they have bigger fish to fry and bigger trade deals to negotiate. Seriously, it barely gets mentioned in any of the European media, they really don't care.

Oh absolutely. The EU couldn't care less. 100%.

[scotty]

Oh absolutely. The EU couldn't care less. 100%.

 

They'd have cared more if we'd been foolish enough to have joined the eurozone, tbh.

[Window Cleaner]

The EU didn't care either way. Brexit really isn't a major issue for Brussels, they have bigger fish to fry and bigger trade deals to negotiate. Seriously, it barely gets mentioned in any of the European media, they really don't care.

 

Well yes and no. There was an article in Le Figaro yesterday saying that Juncker wants Begium to grant citizenship to all UK EU staff. Otherwise they'll have to fire them and presumably that would cost them a fair bit.

[buctootim]

The EU didn't care either way. Brexit really isn't a major issue for Brussels, they have bigger fish to fry and bigger trade deals to negotiate. Seriously, it barely gets mentioned in any of the European media, they really don't care.

 

They do care, but as Sherlock said Britain already gets a better membership deal than any other country. The other 27 simply don't want to give any additional privileges to Britain that the other members don't get. And why should they?

[Verbal]

From Ed Conway's column in the Times today -

 

Since the referendum in June 2016, real household disposable income is UP 1.8% on average in the EU, UP 1.3% on average in OECD countries, and DOWN 0.3% in the UK - the worst performance of any developed economy including Greece.

 

Those frogs are starting to boil...

[Cartman]

Good choice of photo.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/11/uk-has-seen-brexit-related-growth-in-racism-says-un-representative

[Lord Duckhunter]

The EU need to get its head out of the sand otherwise we won’t be the last leaving. If they don’t address freedom of movement they’re ****ed.

 

 

 

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[van Hanegem]

The EU need to get its head out of the sand otherwise we won’t be the last leaving. If they don’t address freedom of movement they’re ****ed.

 

They already address it as the EC wants billions more (even after the UK has left), partly in order to improve border control. A waste of money of course as they will never be able to protect all borders. Though (illegal) immigration is a big issue in many European countries, I don't believe it will be a problem for the EU because politicians like Merkel & Macron simply won't allow it. The Visigrad countries will be a nuisance to them but those countries still want EU money so no problem there. Even Italy with a new government (Lega and the 5 star movement are both anti EU, anti euro and anti immigration) will stay in the EU.

 

I guess we'll have to wait for the next big financial crisis when taxmoney will be needed again to save the banks while the labour market is falling apart. When there's less money available to help southern Europe, maybe then some countries will leave the EU.