Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[buctootim]

The unicorns still roam free in May's speech, but it's good she's a tad less cakeist by finally acknowledging that Brexit will damage the British economy.

 

Ive been visiting the Daily Mail and Express websites for the past few weeks to look at the Brexit related news and comments. The headbangers are still in a majority, but there is is a very noticeable change in tone in the past few days. May's speech today went down like a bucket of cold sick. Seems to me reality is dawning for many that they were sold a pup.

[Verbal]

Ive been visiting the Daily Mail and Express websites for the past few weeks to look at the Brexit related news and comments. The headbangers are still in a majority, but there is is a very noticeable change in tone in the past few days. May's speech today went down like a bucket of cold sick. Seems to me reality is dawning for many that they were sold a pup.

 

I'm not surprised. It is a little odd how May's speech - the bit where she said she was telling the truth - couldn't find anything to say about how leaving would be better than staying. It reminds me of how the Brexit jihadists in her cabinet have gone, in eighteen months, from 'sunny uplands' to 'not Mad Max'.

 

Still, the Brexit 'mandate' - more imagined than real - expires in March 2019, when 'getting on with it' will mean continuing inside the EU and trying to repair the damage already done to the British economy.

[Portugalsaint]

Had we lost, I’d have started to campaign and help the leave cause in the hope the country eventually changed its mind. However, I wouldn’t have thrown my toys out of the pram , demanded a second referendum within a short timescale, called Remainers thick idiots or devised ways to suppress the result.

 

By the way what benefits are there to Brexit apart from taking back control and stopping EU citizens coming to the UK to work in Health Social Care and Agriculture plus dozens of other area

 

Name calling by the people who wish to re Ian the the EU shows how childish the debate has become in the UK. dear God “Brexiteers” don’t you think that Europe are laughing at this silly name calling, I can tell you for sure they are.

 

Agriculture was always done by UK students in their summer breaks with migrant workers coming over for the picking season then returning home to their families. Not bringing them over and claiming benefits, yes, Working Family Tax Credit introduced by a silly labour government in 2005 encouraged this. If this was stopped migrants would still come over picking and maybe instead of all those Uni students going abroad on their parents money they could “get a job” or would that be God forbid. This would eliminate a strain on the health system, benefit system etc.

 

Yes, Duckhunter, I wonder if there would have been all this fuss if the intelligent had won this election?

Edited 2 March, 2018 by Portugalsaint

[scotty]

Had we lost, I’d have started to campaign and help the leave cause in the hope the country eventually changed its mind. However, I wouldn’t have thrown my toys out of the pram , demanded a second referendum within a short timescale, called Remainers thick idiots or devised ways to suppress the result.

 

By the way what benefits are there to Brexit apart from taking back control and stopping EU citizens coming to the UK to work in Health Social Care and Agriculture plus dozens of other area

 

Name calling by the people who wish to re Ian the the EU shows how childish the debate has become in the UK. dear God “Brexiteers” don’t you think that Europe are laughing at this silly name calling, I can tell you for sure they are.

 

Agriculture was always done by UK students in their summer breaks with migrant workers coming over for the picking season then returning home to their families. Not bringing them over and claiming benefits, yes, Working Family Tax Credit introduced by a silly labour government in 2005 encouraged this. If this was stopped migrants would still come over picking and maybe instead of all those Uni students going abroad on their parents money they could “get a job” or would that be God forbid. This would eliminate a strain on the health system, benefit system etc.

 

Yes, Duckhunter, I wonder if there would have been all this fuss if the intelligent had won this election?

 

I've ploughed through this four times now. Does anybody else have a clue what portugal is on about, because I'm still non the wiser.

[hypochondriac]

I've ploughed through this four times now. Does anybody else have a clue what portugal is on about, because I'm still non the wiser.

I was going to write that! Haven't the foggiest.

[Weston Super Saint]

Yes, Duckhunter, I wonder if there would have been all this fuss if the intelligent had won this election?

 

This line is the only one that you need to read from Portugal - the one about the 'imaginary' intelligent winning the 'imaginary' election!

 

Almost as mental as Verbal

[scotty]

I was going to write that! Haven't the foggiest.

 

I nearly didn't, for fear of appearing thick. So I'm grateful for the reassurance :lol:

[Portugalsaint]

Agriculture was always done by UK students in their summer breaks with migrant workers coming over for the picking season then returning home to their families. Not bringing them over and claiming benefits, yes, Working Family Tax Credit introduced by a silly labour government in 2005 encouraged this. If this was stopped migrants would still come over picking and maybe instead of all those Uni students going abroad on their parents money they could “get a job” or would that be God forbid. This would eliminate a strain on the health system, benefit system etc

 

I am very surprised that this simple statement cannot be understood.

 

I will be blunt. If any of you have lived in a Southern European country, understood the language and understood what is going on in the community and not just inamongst the gossiping Brits and other expats you too would see where your hard earned money goes. Not in projects but straight into the pockets of the officials through central government to local councils who have now been able to get on the merry bandwagon. This happens on a scale that the British would not begin to understand. The justice system allows so many appeals that five years after conviction and remaining in post, fully paid the local Mayor has finally lost his job. Thousands upon thousands of euros have been squandered during his reign and his predecessor. His sentence 5k fine to avoid prison. The EU has allowed these southern countries that were always corrupt to become even more so. Also, this is not just prevelant in my area, several other Mayors of local councils along the Algarve have also been found guilty of fraud and are still sat in post receiving their salaries even though they are unable to do their jobs.

 

Really Weston Super mare Saint, where did I write your comment below. Are you one of those who think they are an imaginary intelligent as you so succinctly put it?

 

This line is the only one that you need to read from Portugal - the one about the 'imaginary' intelligent winning the 'imaginary' election!

Edited 3 March, 2018 by Portugalsaint

[Weston Super Saint]

Are you one of those who think they are an imaginary intelligent as you so succinctly put it?

 

I think you've proven that you're not

 

p.s. there was no 'election', imagined or otherwise, just a 'referendum'

[buctootim]

Merkel is back then. I could have sworn she was finished, along with the whole EUSSR. Tsk

[hypochondriac]

Merkel is back then. I could have sworn she was finished, along with the whole EUSSR. Tsk

I think what's more interesting is how much her majority shrank and how well AFD did. Across Europe there is a move away from traditional left wing pro European parties and a growing number are voicing their dissatisfaction for the EU. It will catch up with them eventually even if the numbers haven't yet translated to electoral success in the main.

[Verbal]

I think what's more interesting is how much her majority shrank and how well AFD did. Across Europe there is a move away from traditional left wing pro European parties and a growing number are voicing their dissatisfaction for the EU. It will catch up with them eventually even if the numbers haven't yet translated to electoral success in the main.

 

In which countries exactly is there a "growing number voicing their dissatisfaction with the EU"? Certainly not Hungary - where support for the EU has increased since the Brexit referendum. And certainly not Poland, where support for the EU has never been higher - nor France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain or Sweden. Even in Greece, where the EU has taken a battering, support for it rose from 27% to 33%. And in the UK, support has also risen to 54%. Clear majorities in ALL these countries backed remaining in the EU at precisely the time that the neo-fascists were making inroads in elections.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/

 

The jihadist fantasy of a collapsing EU making the UK's self-inflicted economic harm seem accidentally rational - rather like the endlessly repeated one that said the Euro is on the brink of collapse - is just that: a fantasy.

 

The problem that the dimwitted jihadists have is that they see political crises within countries inside the EU as inevitably the result of the EU. On this complete non-sequitur do they build their fevered dreams.

[Weston Super Saint]

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/

 

Not sure that's entirely indicative!! What do they say - lies damn lies and statistics?

 

The survey was conducted among 9' date='935 respondents in France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom in March and April 2017 [/quote']

[buctootim]

I think what's more interesting is how much her majority shrank and how well AFD did. Across Europe there is a move away from traditional left wing pro European parties and a growing number are voicing their dissatisfaction for the EU. It will catch up with them eventually even if the numbers haven't yet translated to electoral success in the main.

 

Her share of the vote shrank but they mostly went to other mainstream pro-EU parties. AfD got 12.6% of the vote, the same as UKIP in 2015. Whatever happened to them?

Edited 4 March, 2018 by buctootim

[Lord Duckhunter]

Her share of the vote shrank but they mostly went to other mainstream pro-EU parties. AfD got 12.6% of the vote, the same as UKIP in 2015. Whatever happened to them?

 

They got a referendum, which was won

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Verbal]

Not sure that's entirely indicative!! What do they say - lies damn lies and statistics?

 

Be honest, you don't understand statistical sampling.

[Jonnyboy]

Merkel is back then. I could have sworn she was finished, along with the whole EUSSR. Tsk

 

Have Deutsche Bank collapsed yet?

[buctootim]

Have Deutsche Bank collapsed yet?

 

Fancy a bet on who lasts longest? Deutsche or our alki fuelled friend?

[Portugalsaint]

Weston

You may think just because someone uses a word wrong ie election/referendum this matters, it’s normally what is called “nitpicking”.

 

I can assure you I obtained a degree when degrees were worth obtaining not two a penny as they are these days.

 

As per the rest Out is Out and that is that.

[shurlock]

Weston

You may think just because someone uses a word wrong ie election/referendum this matters, it’s normally what is called “nitpicking”.

 

I can assure you I obtained a degree when degrees were worth obtaining not two a penny as they are these days.

 

As per the rest Out is Out and that is that.

 

Elitist.

[Weston Super Saint]

Be honest, you don't understand statistical sampling.

 

I'll be honest, I don't understand why you put so much stock in them!

 

The jihadist fantasy of a collapsing EU making the UK's self-inflicted economic harm seem accidentally rational - rather like the endlessly repeated one that said the Euro is on the brink of collapse - is just that: a fantasy.

 

But, please feel free to enlighten me as to how you can base that statement on 'statistical sampling' results that are coming up to a year out of date (a week is an awful long time in politics!), have been based on a sample of less than 10,000 people in the UK (or for 'statistical' purposes less than 0.02% of the population) and make no mention to the demographics that were 'sampled'?

[Verbal]

I'll be honest, I don't understand why you put so much stock in them!

 

 

 

But, please feel free to enlighten me as to how you can base that statement on 'statistical sampling' results that are coming up to a year out of date (a week is an awful long time in politics!), have been based on a sample of less than 10,000 people in the UK (or for 'statistical' purposes less than 0.02% of the population) and make no mention to the demographics that were 'sampled'?

 

It's not usually worth responding to you as you merely exhibit the dual characteristics of a weird stalker - dishonesty and apoplectic rage.

 

But I'll try this once. Your dishonesty is in your presumably conscious decision to repeatedly rip things out of context - you did it once by ignoring parts of individual sentences. Similarly you make claim for the poll being 'out of date' while ignoring that it was very much 'in date' given that I was responding to hypo's point about Hungary and the rise of the far right in the March 2017 elections.

 

And since you're evidently more of an expert on statistical sampling than me - my training was in Bayesian stats - can you tell me what a minimum sample size is to get a statistically significant result?

 

Or is it that you just won't accept any evidence that doesn't confirm your dishonest and apoplectic view of the world?

[Guided Missile]

But, please feel free to enlighten me as to how you can base that statement on 'statistical sampling' results that are coming up to a year out of date (a week is an awful long time in politics!), have been based on a sample of less than 10,000 people in the UK (or for 'statistical' purposes less than 0.02% of the population) and make no mention to the demographics that were 'sampled'?

If you torture data enough, it will say whatever you want it to say...

[Guided Missile]

On a date that Romans historically settled their debts, it seems to be, yet again, a time for political and economic upheaval. This time, it will be the EU, not the Roman empire that will be affected. You see, no amount of cheap credit and an artificially strong currency will hide the systemic problems affecting the Italian economy. Italy could be heading into deep political crisis after voters go to the polls on March 4. Italy’s la dolce vita is at stake. The supposed ‘good life’ which the Italian economy has enjoyed since the European Central Bank slashed rates down to zero in 2012 and flooded the market with cheap credit, could come to an untimely end. Italian investors could be heading into a bloodbath, leaving the euro facing another existential crisis. Of course, the country is no stranger to political instability. It has changed governments 65 times since the second world war.

 

The betting is that there will be a lurch to the right, particularly amongst younger voters, who have the opposite view to our pampered and spoilt youth, with regard to the benefits of belonging to the EU. At least one-third of young Italians under the age of 25 are out of work and unsurprisingly they have a deep distrust of their government and establishment parties. Right now, the populist Five Star Movement has a slight lead in the polls and if they set up a coalition with the Northern League, it could spell curtains for the euro. Their leader Matteo Salvini has even gone so far as to call the euro a ‘German currency’ which has damaged Italy’s economy, arguing the case to abandon the euro altogether. Forgetting the elections in Italy in March, who seriously thinks that the Euro will survive for long, when the debts of southern Europe become unsustainable? Alan Greenspan, the former Chair of the US Federal Reserve, back in February didn't. He believes the Euro will collapse and the ECB Mario Draghi should come clean on the state of the Eurozone economy. "Northern Europe has, in effect, been funding the deficits of the South; that cannot continue indefinitely. The Eurozone is not working,” says Greenspan. "Brexit is not the end of the set of problems, which I always thought were going to start with the euro because the euro is a very serious problem."

 

...and the collapse of the euro begins:

 

Italy's voters have turned to right-wing and populist parties in an election that is set to leave the country with a hung parliament. The Eurosceptic, anti-establishment Five Star Movement was the biggest single party with a third of the vote. BBC Europe editor Katya Adler tweeted that it was "theoretically possible for the EU's nightmare result to come true: a coalition between the 'populist Eurosceptics': Five Star and Lega [the League party]".

[Guided Missile]

German MEP Hans-Olaf Henkel said today:

 

The majority of Italian Election results are critical toward the EU, even against the euro! All politicians promised the moon to the Italian voters. The results will mean even higher debts than those 130 percent of state debt today, further deterioration of competitiveness of Italian industry and more unemployment. But Italian president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, will print even more money. In the end, the eurozone will be the ideal transfer mechanism from the north to the south. That’s why Germany must get out of the euro now!

Germany is said to have already saved the euro from a full-on crash in the wake of the Eurosceptic results in the Italian Election.

[buctootim]

...and the collapse of the euro begins:

 

At least try to keep up ffs

 

"The leader of Italy’s Eurosceptic Northern League, which enjoyed a surge in popularity to become the country’s largest conservative party, said the centre-right coalition had won the national elections and his party would lead it in forming a government.

Speaking at the Northern League headquarters in Milan, Matteo Salvini said the euro was — and remains — a mistake, but he ruled out a referendum on whether the single currency area’s third-largest economy should leave as “unthinkable”. "

 

https://www.ft.com/content/e2f16fc0-2064-11e8-a895-1ba1f72c2c11

[shurlock]

UK-US Open Skies talks hit Brexit turbulence

 

Negotiations cut short after Washington offers worse package than EU

 

Welcome to the real world, jihadists.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/9461157c-1f97-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80#comments-anchor

[shurlock]

If you torture data enough, it will say whatever you want it to say...

 

Shhhhhh....dont spill your trade secrets pal.

[buctootim]

Welcome to the real world, jihadists.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/9461157c-1f97-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80#comments-anchor

 

You don't quite do it justice - "The US is offering Britain a worse “Open Skies” deal after Brexit than it had as an EU member, in a negotiating stance that would badly hit the transatlantic operating rights of British Airways and Virgin Atlantic"

[hypochondriac]

In which countries exactly is there a "growing number voicing their dissatisfaction with the EU"? Certainly not Hungary - where support for the EU has increased since the Brexit referendum. And certainly not Poland, where support for the EU has never been higher - nor France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain or Sweden. Even in Greece, where the EU has taken a battering, support for it rose from 27% to 33%. And in the UK, support has also risen to 54%. Clear majorities in ALL these countries backed remaining in the EU at precisely the time that the neo-fascists were making inroads in elections.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/

 

The jihadist fantasy of a collapsing EU making the UK's self-inflicted economic harm seem accidentally rational - rather like the endlessly repeated one that said the Euro is on the brink of collapse - is just that: a fantasy.

 

The problem that the dimwitted jihadists have is that they see political crises within countries inside the EU as inevitably the result of the EU. On this complete non-sequitur do they build their fevered dreams.

You see how is it a positive thing that almost half of the population in various countries have a negative opinion of the EU? That's hardly something to be happy with. Italy and their elections once again show the dissatisfaction for the EU and their policies with the largest single party being the euro sceptic party.

[shurlock]

You see how is it a positive thing that almost half of the population in various countries have a negative opinion of the EU? That's hardly something to be happy with. Italy and their elections once again show the dissatisfaction for the EU and their policies with the largest single party being the euro sceptic party.

 

This statement isn't particularly informative in and of itself. Italians distrust their national government and parliament far more than they do the EU and the euro.

[hypochondriac]

This statement isn't particularly informative in and of itself. Italians distrust their national government and parliament far more than they do the EU and the euro.

But it certainly shows there is a significant number who are sceptical of the EU and its aims. Its at least partly why they voted for the euro sceptic parties along with having a distrust of the establishment parties.

[shurlock]

But it certainly shows there is a significant number who are sceptical of the EU and its aims. Its at least partly why they voted for the euro sceptic parties along with having a distrust of the establishment parties.

 

They're sceptical of political institutions fullstop -regional, national and supranational. That's the real motivation. Its not a distinctively EU animus, unlike for example Tory or traditional UKIP euroscepticism over here.

Edited 5 March, 2018 by shurlock

[Weston Super Saint]

 

And since you're evidently more of an expert on statistical sampling than me - my training was in Bayesian stats - can you tell me what a minimum sample size is to get a statistically significant result?

 

 

I honestly have no idea, my suspicion is that it would be more than 0.02% of the population if you are trying to accurately gauge the opinions of a nation! I'm sure you'll enlighten me and dazzle with your astounding intellect!

 

You've conveniently glossed over the fact that there is no mention of the demographics that were sampled - again, I'm not an expert but surely some reference to this should be made, if the adverts for cat food or shampoo can mention who they've polled, you'd assume a statistical body would be able to rustle up the info!

 

Finally, I'm pretty sure Hypo's post that you were replying to was referring to this weekend's developments in Germany vis-a-vis Merkel and the AFD. Not sure he mentioned Hungary or last March's elections....

[shurlock]

I honestly have no idea, my suspicion is that it would be more than 0.02% of the population if you are trying to accurately gauge the opinions of a nation! I'm sure you'll enlighten me and dazzle with your astounding intellect!

 

You've conveniently glossed over the fact that there is no mention of the demographics that were sampled - again, I'm not an expert but surely some reference to this should be made, if the adverts for cat food or shampoo can mention who they've polled, you'd assume a statistical body would be able to rustle up the info!

 

Finally, I'm pretty sure Hypo's post that you were replying to was referring to this weekend's developments in Germany vis-a-vis Merkel and the AFD. Not sure he mentioned Hungary or last March's elections....

 

Come on pal, aren't you representative of every wurzel west of brockenhurst?

[hypochondriac]

They're sceptical of political institutions fullstop -regional, national and supranational. That's the real motivation. Its not a distinctively EU animus, unlike for example Tory or traditional UKIP euroscepticism over here.

I think it's dishonest to state that the success of parties who routinely expressed anti EU sentiment is not at least partly due to euro scepticism. At the very least it's a sign that a significant number are not pro EU. Edited 5 March, 2018 by hypochondriac

[scotty]

They're sceptical of political institutions fullstop -regional, national and supranational. That's the real motivation. Its not a distinctively EU animus, unlike for example Tory or traditional UKIP euroscepticism over here.

 

My wife is Italian, and most of her family over there are vehemently anti-eu mainly over immigration. I also hear a hell of a lot from them about the euro, that's a pretty sensitive point with them too.

[hypochondriac]

My wife is Italian, and most of her family over there are vehemently anti-eu mainly over immigration. I also hear a hell of a lot from them about the euro, that's a pretty sensitive point with them too.

I also have a number of Italian relatives who express similar sentiments--particularly about the euro. When it was introduced, all the shops capitalised on the confusion to raise all their prices and they never came down.

[Verbal]

My wife is Italian, and most of her family over there are vehemently anti-eu mainly over immigration. I also hear a hell of a lot from them about the euro, that's a pretty sensitive point with them too.

 

I also have a number of Italian relatives who express similar sentiments--particularly about the euro. When it was introduced, all the shops capitalised on the confusion to raise all their prices and they never came down.

 

How did I not see that coming? A sample of a handful of relatives - case closed! That obviously trumps opinion polls in BrexitWorld.

 

The minute people try to counter evidence that conflicts with their worldview by invoking their wife or their cousins you know this is no longer a debate but a crazed rejection of the norms of rationality.

[hypochondriac]

How did I not see that coming? A sample of a handful of relatives - case closed! That obviously trumps opinion polls in BrexitWorld.

 

The minute people try to counter evidence that conflicts with their worldview by invoking their wife or their cousins you know this is no longer a debate but a crazed rejection of the norms of rationality.

What are you blathering about? I did no such thing, I was simply agreeing that there are Italians who aren't particularly happy with the Euro- as evidenced by these elections.

[Jonnyboy]

What are you blathering about? I did no such thing, I was simply agreeing that there are Italians who aren't particularly happy with the Euro- as evidenced by these elections.

 

I know Italians who love the freedom of movement the EU brings. Case closed.

[van Hanegem]

They're sceptical of political institutions fullstop -regional, national and supranational. That's the real motivation. Its not a distinctively EU animus, unlike for example Tory or traditional UKIP euroscepticism over here.

 

True, the gap between the political establishment and "the people" in European countries is probably the biggest in Italy. However, you can't deny that scepticism about the EU is still growing in many European countries. It's not about leaving the EU but merely about the the course of the EU towards a federal union and the gut feeling that neither the European Parliament, European Commission nor even the ECB can be trusted to make the right decisions. I reckon there are not many Europeans who believe that the EU can prevent another crisis like we had in Greece. Hopefully Italy won't be the next problem but I fear it's going to cost Northern Europe again an awful lot of money in order to keep the euro alive.

[Weston Super Saint]

How did I not see that coming? A sample of a handful of relatives - case closed! That obviously trumps opinion polls in BrexitWorld.

 

The minute people try to counter evidence that conflicts with their worldview by invoking their wife or their cousins you know this is no longer a debate but a crazed rejection of the norms of rationality.

 

Still waiting for you to enlighten us with what constitutes an accurate sample.

 

So far we are somewhere between a couple of relatives in Italy and 0.02% of the population....

 

Surely it's not hard for someone with your obvious intellect and statistical training to put a figure on it?

[scotty]

How did I not see that coming? A sample of a handful of relatives - case closed! That obviously trumps opinion polls in BrexitWorld.

 

The minute people try to counter evidence that conflicts with their worldview by invoking their wife or their cousins you know this is no longer a debate but a crazed rejection of the norms of rationality.

 

I didn't mention your quoted statistics. I was replying to Shurlocks comments about Italy not being anti-eu but anti-establishment by saying that some relatives and the typically large social groups they tend to gather in routinely express strongly anti-eu views. As for the euro, which is one of its main bedrocks, even the most ardent eu supporter couldn't claim that it hasn't caused massive resentment between northern and southern Italy. It is simply inaccurate to portray the country as pro-eu, and the election results reflect that.

[buctootim]

Still waiting for you to enlighten us with what constitutes an accurate sample.

 

So far we are somewhere between a couple of relatives in Italy and 0.02% of the population....

 

Surely it's not hard for someone with your obvious intellect and statistical training to put a figure on it?

 

Sample size depends on how accurate you want the final result to be. At a basic level if you are measuring how many Brits will vote Tory and want a 99% probability that you will get the right figure + or - 0.1 you will need a much larger sample than, for example, you want a 95% probability you will get the right figure + or minus 5.

 

There are plenty of calculators out there, like this one.

https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

 

There are more nuances (its been a while since I left university) but if you learn a little bit about stats you will understand when a figure given is pretty much nailed on to be right and when its just a ball park figure. Political polling can be notoriously difficult though as people are more coy about revealing their voting intentions than what brand of cat food they buy. Also you cant assume one thing follows another. for example the fact somebody voted for a Eurosceptic party doesnt necessarily mean they would vote to leave the EU in referendum. Sometimes people vote as a protest and sometimes on other policies of the same party, eg immigration.

Edited 6 March, 2018 by buctootim

[hypochondriac]

I didn't mention your quoted statistics. I was replying to Shurlocks comments about Italy not being anti-eu but anti-establishment by saying that some relatives and the typically large social groups they tend to gather in routinely express strongly anti-eu views. As for the euro, which is one of its main bedrocks, even the most ardent eu supporter couldn't claim that it hasn't caused massive resentment between northern and southern Italy. It is simply inaccurate to portray the country as pro-eu, and the election results reflect that.

 

Exactly. Verbal seemed to be under the impression that i was replying to him in that post which is utterly bizarre as I had already replied to his post and was quoting someone completely unrelated to him. Odd.

[hypochondriac]

Sample size depends on how accurate you want the final result to be. At a basic level if you are measuring how many Brits will vote Tory and want a 99% probability that you will get the right figure + or - 0.1 you will need a much larger sample than, for example, you want a 95% probability you will get the right figure + or minus 5.

 

There are plenty of calculators out there, like this one.

https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

 

There are more nuances (its been a while since I left university) but if you learn a little bit about stats you will understand when a figure given is pretty much nailed on to be right and when its just a ball park figure. Political polling can be notoriously difficult though as people are more coy about revealing their voting intentions than what brand of cat food they buy. Also you cant assume one thing follows another. for example the fact somebody voted for a Eurosceptic party doesnt necessarily mean they would vote to leave the EU in referendum. Sometimes people vote as a protest and sometimes on other policies of the same party, eg immigration.

 

I agree with that but I don't think anyone on here has suggested that a majority of Italians would vote to leave the EU have they?

[scotty]

Exactly. Verbal seemed to be under the impression that i was replying to him in that post which is utterly bizarre as I had already replied to his post and was quoting someone completely unrelated to him. Odd.

 

That's not the only bizarre thing....

How did I not see that coming? A sample of a handful of relatives - case closed! That obviously trumps opinion polls in BrexitWorld.

 

....at the same time he seems to be saying that the opinion poll statistics he's putting forward as gospel trump the actual outcome of a real general election. :lol:

[shurlock]

That's not the only bizarre thing....

How did I not see that coming? A sample of a handful of relatives - case closed! That obviously trumps opinion polls in BrexitWorld.

 

....at the same time he seems to be saying that the opinion poll statistics he's putting forward as gospel trump the actual outcome of a real general election. :lol:

 

Yes a general election. There's a clue in there somewhere

[hypochondriac]

Yes a general election. There's a clue in there somewhere

 

Are you seriously trying to suggest that the popularity of euro sceptic parties had nothing at all to do with a feeling of euro scepticism within a portion of their voters?