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Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum  

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  1. 1. Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum

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Did you not know the Chile-UK avocado trade is a major element of our GDP? (or at least will be after Brexit hits the car and financial services industries).
I've been taken some financial advice and I am currently piling in Pan-Pipes on the futures market. It will be just so refreshing to have the power to choose them rather than the fu cking Flutes and Basoons being forced on us by the bloody Germans.
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It's always a good idea to believe an organization whose leader has been charged with fraud.

 

Try this...

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/01/23/project-fear-was-groundless-the-uk-economy-has-been-remarkably-resilient/

 

Do tell oh scion of Aletheia. Why is Britain the worst performing economy in both the EU and the OECD? All lies innit?

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Do tell oh scion of Aletheia. Why is Britain the worst performing economy in both the EU and the OECD? All lies innit?
Mainly because we have a choice between a crap prime minister, and an opposition leader who is so useless he can't even take advantage of there being a crap prime minister.
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No it was a "Cross Whitehall briefing" with people who can't make accurate 15 month predictions deciding to come out with even more inaccurate numbers.

 

Shane Longs shots on goal are more accurate than this trip.

 

Actually medium-term impacts are probably easier to forecast than short-run ones, especially when it comes assessing economic shocks. One might have a good idea what the endpoint looks like and the causal forces and relationships at play but there are almost always lags, delays and adjustment costs making it difficult to know when you’ll get there. In short, don’t confuse noise with fundamentals little fella.

 

Btw do you think HM Treasury cooked the numbers?

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https://news.sky.com/story/amp/new-brexit-leak-reveals-steep-costs-for-uk-industries-11240583?__twitter_impression=true

 

And now the by-sector analysis. Looking rosy.

 

Every time I see these reports I do share one opinion with the swivel-eyed Brexiteers babbling on about the Osborne-project-fear -never-happened-routine: these numbers have been spun.

 

Forecasts are intrinsically and inevitably wrong - that's what they are. But these numbers have been spun because that's what governments do. They spin. There's magic political dust on these numbers.

 

Remember that.

 

They will have been spun to make them look more optimistic than they actually are. They've been sexed up to actually look that sh it. They've been massaged and filtered to wring out a positive message.

 

The establishment created these numbers. The Prime Minister and DeExEU are leading this work.

 

Just think what those numbers were like before the spinning started. Just think.

 

Still, will of the people, eh?

Edited by CB Fry
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Yes it's still the will of the people. Numbers haven't changed and rehashing the same arguments won't work. And as John Reed wood has rightly said.

 

"Before making any more Project Fear forecasts they should try explaining why the UK growth rate fell after we joined the EU, why we have had a persistent deficit with them, and why even the EU study shows there was practically no benefit from joining the single market."

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Do tell oh scion of Aletheia. Why is Britain the worst performing economy in both the EU and the OECD? All lies innit?

 

Probably because we're the only one currently in the process of leaving the EU, and that inevitably brings uncertainty which is bound to spook the markets. However, that process won't last forever. We'll find out for ourselves what actually happens then, which I suspect won't be as gloomy as some would have us believe. I'm old enough to remember our ill-advised entry into ERM which the markets wholeheartedly endorsed, so given the disaster that caused us I'm kind of sceptical about the present doom mongering myself.

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Probably because we're the only one currently in the process of leaving the EU, and that inevitably brings uncertainty which is bound to spook the markets. However, that process won't last forever. We'll find out for ourselves what actually happens then, which I suspect won't be as gloomy as some would have us believe. I'm old enough to remember our ill-advised entry into ERM which the markets wholeheartedly endorsed, so given the disaster that caused us I'm kind of sceptical about the present doom mongering myself.

 

Uncertainty itself isnt the cause. If Brexit was likely to be better than the status quo there would be optimism and probably improved growth. It is exactly because industry believes Brexit will, at best, lead to moderate reductions in economic growth over the next 10 years, and at worst severe declines that the UKs current performance is the worst of any industrialised nation.

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"Before making any more Project Fear forecasts they should try explaining why the UK growth rate fell after we joined the EU, why we have had a persistent deficit with them, and why even the EU study shows there was practically no benefit from joining the single market."

 

Talking of Project Fear- thats called a lie

 

http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4f626a1e-db03-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818?source=next&fit=scale-down&width=602

 

https://www.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377

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The institute of New economics founded by George Soros. Now if I recall, he's be in the news recently regarding Brexit...

 

You should follow his approach. Read the evidence, come to view, act on that view. Having a view and trying desperately to find something to substantiate it doesn't seem to be working for you.

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I see that the Policy Exchange, the Gove-founded ISIS of jihadist Brexism, is today advocating the tearing down of all UK tariffs. Their intellectual hero, Patrick Minford, has admitted that such a policy would 'eliminate' (his word) large swathes of British manufacturers, because they'd be wiped out by cheap imports but be unable to export to compensate because other countries' trade barriers would remain firmly up. And the PE themselves say "It would not necessarily be the end of the world if agriculture and manufacturing shrank further as a proportion of the economy." Oh, that's alright then.

 

One immediate result is that voters in Leaveland - the industrial north and Midlands - would have thousands of their jobs binned - on top of the negative economic consequences of lower growth resulting from any version of Brexit, which will hit Leaveland harder than other regions.

 

This unilateral dismemberment of the British economy so stupid that May is bound to try and adopt it.

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Free trade is okay as long as its only with the EU.

 

Is that correct?

 

It’s not free trade though is it pal. It’s unilateral liberalisation without any assurances that it will be reciprocated by trade partners - not OK for British exporters. By extension you must be fully signed up to freedom of movement for workers as all the jihadist arguments for eliminating tariffs apply equally to removing barriers to FoM (in fact FoM has fewer distributional costs).

Edited by shurlock
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Certainly is ironic when people use the word 'Jihad' which literally is about the Maintenance of something, when referring to people seeking change for the better.

 

Hahahahaha

 

One you don’t know the meaning of jihad. Two you still haven’t answered the question.

 

A few avocado sandwiches short of a picnic.

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Free trade is okay as long as its only with the EU.

 

Is that correct?

 

We don't have unilateral free trade with other EU countries, or indeed any other country in the world. Surely you know this.

 

So what do you make of Minford's and the PE's bland assurances that large lumps of British manufacturing and farming would be "eliminated"? Project Fear?

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We need to renegotiate / replicate 65 trade deals just to stand still and retain deals we already benefit from. Absolutely impossible in the timeframe allocated by the government

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deals-lost-eu-liam-fox-caroline-lucas-theresa-may-latest-a8201596.html

Except the minister who has been doing the rounds has that is already covered.

 

All countries with deals with the EU will allow the same thing to continue with the UK until bespoke agreements can be done.

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On a date that Romans historically settled their debts, it seems to be, yet again, a time for political and economic upheaval. This time, it will be the EU, not the Roman empire that will be affected. You see, no amount of cheap credit and an artificially strong currency will hide the systemic problems affecting the Italian economy. Italy could be heading into deep political crisis after voters go to the polls on March 4. Italy’s la dolce vita is at stake. The supposed ‘good life’ which the Italian economy has enjoyed since the European Central Bank slashed rates down to zero in 2012 and flooded the market with cheap credit, could come to an untimely end. Italian investors could be heading into a bloodbath, leaving the euro facing another existential crisis. Of course, the country is no stranger to political instability. It has changed governments 65 times since the second world war.

 

The betting is that there will be a lurch to the right, particularly amongst younger voters, who have the opposite view to our pampered and spoilt youth, with regard to the benefits of belonging to the EU. At least one-third of young Italians under the age of 25 are out of work and unsurprisingly they have a deep distrust of their government and establishment parties. Right now, the populist Five Star Movement has a slight lead in the polls and if they set up a coalition with the Northern League, it could spell curtains for the euro. Their leader Matteo Salvini has even gone so far as to call the euro a ‘German currency’ which has damaged Italy’s economy, arguing the case to abandon the euro altogether. Forgetting the elections in Italy in March, who seriously thinks that the Euro will survive for long, when the debts of southern Europe become unsustainable? Alan Greenspan, the former Chair of the US Federal Reserve, back in February didn't. He believes the Euro will collapse and the ECB Mario Draghi should come clean on the state of the Eurozone economy. "Northern Europe has, in effect, been funding the deficits of the South; that cannot continue indefinitely. The Eurozone is not working,” says Greenspan. "Brexit is not the end of the set of problems, which I always thought were going to start with the euro because the euro is a very serious problem."

 

Still, maybe Italy is too big to fail, like Deutsche Bank. Luckily the UK won't be involved in the bailouts, that must certainly be coming. If and when the euro fails, what is the value in a free-trade agreement with the EU?

 

Always nice to be in the first lifeboat...

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Alan "I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organisations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms" Greenspan. Putting it lightly when overseeing the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression :lol:

 

And the UK wouldn't be on the hook for any bailouts even if it stayed in the EU. Never mind your complete ignorance of the euro or the debt problems facing the UK, the US, China and Japan or that there is no such a thing as first lifeboat when the global economy is so interconnected. But crack on pal.

Edited by shurlock
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Except the minister who has been doing the rounds has that is already covered.

 

All countries with deals with the EU will allow the same thing to continue with the UK until bespoke agreements can be done.

 

Really? All 65 of them are happy to roll over the exact same terms to the UK as to the EU even though the UK is in a much weaker position? Seems odd. Where is the quote, send us a link.

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Alan "I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organisations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms" Greenspan. Putting it lightly when overseeing the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression :lol:

 

And the UK wouldn't be on the hook for any bailouts even if it stayed in the EU. Never mind your complete ignorance of the euro or the debt problems facing the UK, the US, China and Japan or that there is no such a thing as first lifeboat when the global economy is so interconnected. But crack on pal.

 

 

He's out of date and out of touch, as always. Italy's economy has been growing for three years and youth unemployment is falling faster the EU average. Their budget deficit is smaller than the UK's

Edited by buctootim
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More good news for the jihadists, with their economy-exploding suicide vests...

 

Even though we haven't left yet, Brexit has already caused substantial damage to the economy.

 

According to the Greenhill investment bank:

 

"It looks like the British economy is already suffering its effect with higher inflation, lower consumer spending, in particular around the Christmas trading period, and growth rates well below other developed economies."

 

And even better news...

 

While the EU continues to power ahead, the UK, in last place, is set to enter a Brexit-caused recession 'within two years'. This is the judgement not of academic 'experts' but of investors themselves.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/brexit-expected-to-lead-the-uk-into-recession-within-two-years-investor-survey-says.html

 

Win, win - right?

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Another myth bites the dust in today's Times:

 

ECONOMISTS

Dr Graham Gudgin, Judge Business School, Cambridge

Paul Ormerod, visiting professor at University College London

 

PHILOSOPHERS/THEORISTS

Nigel Biggar, regius professor of moral and pastoral theology, Oxford

Paul Elbourne, professor of the philosophy of language, Oxford

Dr Tom Simpson, associate professor of philosophy and public policy, Blavatnik school of government, Oxford

 

LAWYERS

Sir Richard Aikens, QC, former member of the Court

of Appeal

Baroness (Ruth) Deech, former chairwoman of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority

Dr Richard Ekins, associate professor in law, Oxford

Carol Harlow, QC, emeritus professor of law, London School of Economics (LSE)

John Tasioulas, professor of politics, philosophy and law at the Dickson Poon School of Law, King’s College London

Guglielmo Verdirame, professor of international law, King’s College London

 

FOREIGN POLICY/DIPLOMACY/DEFENCE

Dr Philip Cunliffe, senior lecturer in international conflict, University of Kent

Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of MI6

John Forsyth, former member of the council of the Royal Institute for International Affairs

Dr Lee Jones, reader in international politics, Queen Mary University of London

Sir Peter Marshall, formerly deputy secretary-general of the Commonwealth

Gwythian Prins, emeritus research professor at the LSE

Dr Philip Towle, emeritus reader in international relations, Cambridge

Sir Andrew Wood, former ambassador to Russia and a fellow at Chatham House

 

SOCIAL POLICY

David Coleman, emeritus professor of demography, Oxford

Jonathan Rutherford, emeritus professor of cultural studies, Middlesex University

Dr Joanna Williams, author/academic

 

PSYCHOLOGY

Dr Terri Apter, former senior tutor, Newnham College, Cambridge

Robin Dunbar, emeritus professor of evolutionary psychology, Oxford

 

BUSINESS

Alexander Darwall, Jupiter Asset Management

Sir Paul Marshall, chairman of ARK Schools

Rory Maw, Bursar of Magdalen College, Oxford

Dame Helena Morrissey, Legal & General Investment Management

Edmund Truell, chairman Disruptive Capital Finance

David Abulafia, professor of Mediterranean history, Cambridge

Sir Noel Malcolm, fellow of All Souls College, Oxford

Dr Daniel Robinson, fellow of Magdalen College, Oxford

Dr Peter Sarris, reader in late Roman, medieval and Byzantine studies, Cambridge

Robert Tombs, emeritus professor of French history, Cambridge

 

NATURAL SCIENCES

Dr Ian Winter, senior lecturer in the department of physiology, development and neuroscience, Cambridge

 

POLITICAL SCIENCES AND GOVERNMENT

Lord (Maurice) Glasman, Labour peer and director of the Common Good Foundation

Robert J Jackson, professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, and emeritus professor at the University of Redlands, California

Richard Tuck, professor of government, Harvard University

 

I like these extracts:

 

But Gudgin and a team of four economists — three of them remainers — proved its assumptions wrong back in 2016. They tried to organise a meeting but the Treasury “absolutely refused to meet”. They wrote letters to the Financial Times, but they were not published.

The errors were important but, perhaps, too technical to grasp. One showed the Treasury wonks had failed to take account of the fact that Britain is almost the only EU state that has more trade outside the EU than inside. This distorted downwards the forecast on trade. “They calculated the amount of extra exports to EU countries due to being an EU member, but took an average across all EU members rather than measuring the specific effect for the UK,” says Gudgin. “They then assumed all the gains would be lost on leaving and that no replacement exports would occur via new free-trade agreements. These are extreme assumptions and led the Treasury to an exaggerated estimate of the impact of Brexit.”

 

Tombs’s analysis is more political. A celebrated historian of France, in 2014 he published The English and Their History. It was, among many other things, a rejection of the postwar declinist narrative that has dominated the lives of three generations. “By the standards of humanity as a whole,” he wrote, “England over the centuries has been among the richest, safest and best-governed places on earth, as periodical influxes of people testify. Its living standards in the 14th century were higher than much of the world in the 20th. We who have lived in England since 1945 have been among the luckiest people in the existence of Homo sapiens: rich, peaceful and healthy.”The postwar, post-imperial decline of Britain — one of the driving forces behind our decision to join the EU — is an illusion. Yet in the 1960s and 1970s it was treated as established fact. When we joined the EU (then the EEC) in 1973 it was in a state of panic. Britain, it was said, was the Titanic and Europe our lifeboat.

“I think, speaking as a historian and as a patriot, that we were taken into the EU on a misunderstanding of our situation,” says Tombs. “It would have been better in the 1960s and 1970s to continue to ask for a free trade agreement. I don’t think most people understood the full implications of what we were signing up to politically.”

Part of that illusion was economic, the belief that growth in the EEC was outstripping ours. In fact that growth rate ground to a halt soon after we joined because it was based on a quarter-century of recovery from the Second World War. We were actually doing rather better than Europe. “We looked at the record of growth in per capita GDP since 1952,” says Gudgin, “and growth was better before we joined the EU than after.”

 

The author concludes the excellent piece, which can be read here:

On a personal note, I voted to remain, having been unsure to the last minute. I disbelieved the economic arguments; I thought them rigged. I just believed that, maybe, the EU could ensure peace in Europe for another generation. Briefings for Brexit has knocked that one down. Tombs points out that Nato and nuclear weapons have done more to keep the peace than the EU, and a paper on the site will show that the EU has stirred up more wars than it can ever have stopped.

“Instead of peaceful integration,” writes Philip Cunliffe, a senior lecturer in international conflict at Kent University, “the eastward expansion of the EU has disproved its claim to reunify the Continent and shattered its legitimacy as a peacemaker.”

In a new referendum I would vote “leave”. It’s the smart option.

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Morning Jihadi John

 

Is this the equivalent of the mongboard strawmanism that given a large enough population, you can always find at least one person supporting a daft position?

 

Btw I wouldn't want to call you thick pal but I think you've got your businessmen and historians jumbled up :lol:

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Another myth bites the dust in today's Times:

 

ECONOMISTS

Dr Graham Gudgin, Judge Business School, Cambridge

Paul Ormerod, visiting professor at University College London

 

PHILOSOPHERS/THEORISTS

Nigel Biggar, regius professor of moral and pastoral theology, Oxford

Paul Elbourne, professor of the philosophy of language, Oxford

Dr Tom Simpson, associate professor of philosophy and public policy, Blavatnik school of government, Oxford

 

LAWYERS

Sir Richard Aikens, QC, former member of the Court

of Appeal

Baroness (Ruth) Deech, former chairwoman of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority

Dr Richard Ekins, associate professor in law, Oxford

Carol Harlow, QC, emeritus professor of law, London School of Economics (LSE)

John Tasioulas, professor of politics, philosophy and law at the Dickson Poon School of Law, King’s College London

Guglielmo Verdirame, professor of international law, King’s College London

 

FOREIGN POLICY/DIPLOMACY/DEFENCE

Dr Philip Cunliffe, senior lecturer in international conflict, University of Kent

Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of MI6

John Forsyth, former member of the council of the Royal Institute for International Affairs

Dr Lee Jones, reader in international politics, Queen Mary University of London

Sir Peter Marshall, formerly deputy secretary-general of the Commonwealth

Gwythian Prins, emeritus research professor at the LSE

Dr Philip Towle, emeritus reader in international relations, Cambridge

Sir Andrew Wood, former ambassador to Russia and a fellow at Chatham House

 

SOCIAL POLICY

David Coleman, emeritus professor of demography, Oxford

Jonathan Rutherford, emeritus professor of cultural studies, Middlesex University

Dr Joanna Williams, author/academic

 

PSYCHOLOGY

Dr Terri Apter, former senior tutor, Newnham College, Cambridge

Robin Dunbar, emeritus professor of evolutionary psychology, Oxford

 

BUSINESS

Alexander Darwall, Jupiter Asset Management

Sir Paul Marshall, chairman of ARK Schools

Rory Maw, Bursar of Magdalen College, Oxford

Dame Helena Morrissey, Legal & General Investment Management

Edmund Truell, chairman Disruptive Capital Finance

David Abulafia, professor of Mediterranean history, Cambridge

Sir Noel Malcolm, fellow of All Souls College, Oxford

Dr Daniel Robinson, fellow of Magdalen College, Oxford

Dr Peter Sarris, reader in late Roman, medieval and Byzantine studies, Cambridge

Robert Tombs, emeritus professor of French history, Cambridge

 

NATURAL SCIENCES

Dr Ian Winter, senior lecturer in the department of physiology, development and neuroscience, Cambridge

 

POLITICAL SCIENCES AND GOVERNMENT

Lord (Maurice) Glasman, Labour peer and director of the Common Good Foundation

Robert J Jackson, professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, and emeritus professor at the University of Redlands, California

Richard Tuck, professor of government, Harvard University

 

Thanks for that list, JJ. As you say, idiots every single one.

 

Also interesting to see that amount of prestige-massaging going on. Neither of the two 'economists' you list -two out of thousands! - is actually employed by the institutions you mention. Gudgin, rather than being a Cambridge don, is actually employed by the far less salubrious Ulster University, from where (quelle surprise) he writes his anti-Irish-nationalist tracts - as he would as a UUP advisor. He's also the best the jihadist Policy Exchange can come up with as an economic advisor.

 

And Ormerod, rather than being employed by UCL, actually works for Volterra Partners, a 'niche' consultancy specialising in property and transport economics.

 

Neither is a budding Maynard Keynes, that's for sure.

 

I could go through the list but life is for the living. I prefer your shorthand: thickos!

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After 2 years of saying we can't have our cake and eat it, labour are about to propose we do have our cake and eat it

 

 

for this week anyway

 

It's probably the preferred option for the EU- essentially stay in the customs union where we have to follow EU laws but have no say in them. Probably have to pay a chunk of cash for the privilege too. Essentially if that's the Labour option then we are better off staying in.

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It's probably the preferred option for the EU- essentially stay in the customs union where we have to follow EU laws but have no say in them. Probably have to pay a chunk of cash for the privilege too. Essentially if that's the Labour option then we are better off staying in.

 

That’s not how the customs union works - think you’re confusing it with the EEA.

Edited by shurlock
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Labour, our government in waiting....:lol::lol::lol:

 

George Osborne is now saying that Labour is more pro-business than the Tories.

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-brexiteers-have-handed-labour-an-open-goal-a3775721.html

 

It says something for the catastrophic May government that even someone as ditheringly useless as Corbyn should be in a position even to think about winning power.

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If we are piggybacking on existing and future EU trade deals then how are they going to allow us to do that and not insist that we follow the same laws as well?

 

See Turkey which inside a customs union with the EU but enjoys regulatory autonomy and is not subject to the ECJ.

 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf

Edited by shurlock
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  • Lighthouse changed the title to Brexit - Post Match Reaction

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