Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Whitey Grandad]

Well, they might kick us out for breaking the rules.......Maybe thats a way of avoiding the 2 year delay with A50.

 

Maybe, but it wouldn't help us to get the best deal.

[Johnny Bognor]

How much business is actually done in these trade deals anyway? The company I work for makes most it's money from getting stuff made in China and sold mainly in the US. We do some business with EU countries and Russia but in the main it's made in China because they have cheapest labour and sold in the States because they have most to spend.

 

You can go online and buy something cheap direct from the factory in China - what 'trade deal' does that involve?

 

You dont need a trade deal to trade. The EU and consequently the Uk do not have a trade deal with any if the worlds largest economies including USA, China, India etc etc. They do have trade deals with syria and iraq though ....

 

...yet the EU trades far more with the countries that it doesnt have a deal with, as opposed to the ones it does have a deal with.

Edited 17 July, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[Verbal]

Calling Duckhunter to the thread again (because it's funny) to blindly defend the outright laughable...

 

David Davis now wants a deal with a trading area 150% of the earth's GDP.

 

https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/754785184290054144

 

Free trade agreement with Vulcans, perhaps?

[Lord Duckhunter]

Calling Duckhunter to the thread again (because it's funny) to blindly defend the outright laughable...

 

David Davis now wants a deal with a trading area 150% of the earth's GDP.

 

https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/754785184290054144

 

Free trade agreement with Vulcans, perhaps?

 

 

Or perhaps 10 times bigger population wise or land mass ( he did say area 10 times bigger ) . Where does he say 10 times bigger GDP? A trade deal with China , America , India Indonesia , Pakistan and Brazil would be be a deal with access to 10 times more people than are in the EU , and cover a bigger area, no?

Edited 18 July, 2016 by Lord Duckhunter

[shurlock]

Or perhaps 10 times bigger population wise or land mass ( he did say area 10 times bigger ) . Where does he say 10 times bigger GDP? A trade deal with China , America , India Indonesia , Pakistan and Brazil would be be a deal with access to 10 times more people than are in the EU , and cover a bigger area, no?

 

I bet you even sat up with wiki or the cia factbook and tried adding up the landmasses and populations of those countries. Bless your little Union Jack cotton socks

 

I can just picture Davo, our man of action, concluding a trade deal with that immense continent that is Antartica: "two bags of pigeon droppings for a bucket of ice cubes, do we have a deal?". That will show those experts...

[Guided Missile]

On the basis of e.g. shale oil production or food output, land mass is more important than population as a measure of the value of imported goods. If you're interested in cheap goods based on exploited local labour, then population size is more important. Personally, lower-cost energy and food supplies for the UK, seem more attractive than a cheap pair of trainers...

[Wes Tender]

Nice to see the forum's most vocal Remainians getting their knickers in a twist at the reports that we are forging ahead with planning our future trade deals with some of the more dynamic countries of the World.

[Whitey Grandad]

Nice to see the forum's most vocal Remainians getting their knickers in a twist at the reports that we are forging ahead with planning our future trade deals with some of the more dynamic countries of the World.

 

'Forging ahead' is putting it a bit strongly. A couple of phone calls might be a better description.

[Wes Tender]

I bet you even sat up with wiki or the cia factbook and tried adding up the landmasses and populations of those countries. Bless your little Union Jack cotton socks

 

I can just picture Davo, our man of action, concluding a trade deal with that immense continent that is Antartica: "two bags of pigeon droppings for a bucket of ice cubes, do we have a deal?". That will show those experts...

 

All it would require is a reasonable grasp of World geography to express an opinion along those lines. Indulge yourself in your puerile fantasies if it amuses you, or counter the basis of the argument with the more precise figures that are already in your head, so that you won't need to research them yourself to disprove them.

[buctootim]

This thread has pepped up. The resident right wingers are normally good for some desperate attempts to justify the ridiculous - but GDP measured by acreage is a new high.

[Wes Tender]

This thread has pepped up. The resident right wingers are normally good for some desperate attempts to justify the ridiculous - but GDP measured by acreage is a new high.

 

This scenario appears to be a figment of your imagination, but I'm happy for you that nevertheless it entertains you. Where has this connection been made between land mass, population and GDP apart from by this Chris Cook, quoting from your favourite reliable source, an article in the Daily Express?

[aintforever]

Would not worry. It is going to be totally de-railed by the Sturgeon.

 

That's the elephant in the room. Leaving the EU will mean another referendum for the Jocks and as it stands it would be a nailed on vote out of the UK. That would have ramifications for Northern Ireland as well.

 

I doubt many who voted for Brexit would want the UK broken up AND out of the EU. So if the government press ahead then they could be going against the will of the people and the majority of MPs.

 

A second referendum on Brexit would be daft if it was the same question but if the Jocks are going to have one anyway surely it is fair to let the people of England decide if they want to be in a UK in the EU or just England and Wales out - because that is effectively the choice.

[Batman]

That's the elephant in the room. Leaving the EU will mean another referendum for the Jocks and as it stands it would be a nailed on vote out of the UK. That would have ramifications for Northern Ireland as well.

 

I doubt many who voted for Brexit would want the UK broken up AND out of the EU. So if the government press ahead then they could be going against the will of the people and the majority of MPs.

 

A second referendum on Brexit would be daft if it was the same question but if the Jocks are going to have one anyway surely it is fair to let the people of England decide if they want to be in a UK in the EU or just England and Wales out - because that is effectively the choice.

 

Why would it be nailed on they will vote to leave the UK

[buctootim]

That's the elephant in the room. Leaving the EU will mean another referendum for the Jocks and as it stands it would be a nailed on vote out of the UK. That would have ramifications for Northern Ireland as well.

 

I doubt many who voted for Brexit would want the UK broken up AND out of the EU. So if the government press ahead then they could be going against the will of the people and the majority of MPs.

 

A second referendum on Brexit would be daft if it was the same question but if the Jocks are going to have one anyway surely it is fair to let the people of England decide if they want to be in a UK in the EU or just England and Wales out - because that is effectively the choice.

 

Nutshell

[Lord Duckhunter]

Why would it be nailed on they will vote to leave the UK

 

Nutshell

[aintforever]

Why would it be nailed on they will vote to leave the UK

 

Because it was a pretty close vote last time when being part of the EU was one of the reasons to stay in.

[Whitey Grandad]

Why would it be nailed on they will vote to leave the UK

 

Because leaving the EU would be a case of the sassenachs telling them what to do.

 

That plus the £250 bribe that I'd be willing to give them

[Batman]

Because it was a pretty close vote last time when being part of the EU was one of the reasons to stay in.

 

It was nailed on the UK would vote remain.

 

No one would have any idea on how Scotland would vote. Would they vote for the Euro? Contribution costs to the EU?

 

Friends of mine quite happily vote SNP in a general election, voted remain the other week but never in a million years would they vote to leave the UK

[aintforever]

It was nailed on the UK would vote remain.

 

No one would have any idea on how Scotland would vote. Would they vote for the Euro? Contribution costs to the EU?

 

Friends of mine quite happily vote SNP in a general election, voted remain the other week but never in a million years would they vote to leave the UK

 

But do you agree if they did vote to leave the UK WHEN they have the referendum then its a fair possibility that neither Scotland or England and Wales would have got what the voters wanted?

 

If it was a simple vote - stay in the EU as UK or leave and split up the UK, do you really think the majority would choose leave?

[Wes Tender]

It was nailed on the UK would vote remain.

 

No one would have any idea on how Scotland would vote. Would they vote for the Euro? Contribution costs to the EU?

 

Friends of mine quite happily vote SNP in a general election, voted remain the other week but never in a million years would they vote to leave the UK

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-why-scotland-will-not-get-an-independence-referendum-2016-6

 

Several good reasons why it will be very difficult for Scotland to arrange another Independence Referendum, let alone have the stomach for one if they got it.

[hutch]

You're making the same mistake as wee shoutey, assuming that people voted for the SNP because they want independence rather than because the Labour Party is dead.

 

Remember SNP support is on a continuing decline. They lost their parliamentary majority in the last election. In my opinion that is partly down to the people getting fed up listening to her ranting on about independence, only two years after they told her decisively that they don't want it.

[derry]

I don't think for one minute May is going to take too much notice of Sturgeon with 16m leave voters looking over her shoulder. Scotland because they have chosen to elect 59 SNP MPs has made itself an irrelevance to the Conservatives. May in the end will only be interested in satisfying the demands of the majority of Conservative voters who are predominately Leavers and keeping UKIP off her back. Sturgeon is living in cloud cuckoo land if she thinks she can veto anything.

[Whitey Grandad]

I don't think for one minute May is going to take too much notice of Sturgeon with 16m leave voters looking over her shoulder. Scotland because they have chosen to elect 59 SNP MPs has made itself an irrelevance to the Conservatives. May in the end will only be interested in satisfying the demands of the majority of Conservative voters who are predominately Leavers and keeping UKIP off her back. Sturgeon is living in cloud cuckoo land if she thinks she can veto anything.

 

There are also the Remain voters to consider.

[Wes Tender]

But do you agree if they did vote to leave the UK WHEN they have the referendum then its a fair possibility that neither Scotland or England and Wales would have got what the voters wanted?

 

If it was a simple vote - stay in the EU as UK or leave and split up the UK, do you really think the majority would choose leave?

 

The possibility that Scotland might leave the Union was already raised in the Referendum debate, as was World War 3, financial meltdown and Armageddon and yet the electorate still decided to Leave. I am amused by your belief that it would be a "simple" vote if the options were just to remain in the EU or to split up the Union if we voted to leave the EU. The simple vote was remain or leave and anything else would be an unfair, unreasonable or unnecessary complication.

 

Conversely, now that the UK has voted to leave the EU, I presume that Scotland and the rest of the UK will be happy that new trade deals will be negotiated on behalf of the entire UK, not just parts of it?

[Guided Missile]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-why-scotland-will-not-get-an-independence-referendum-2016-6

Several good reasons why it will be very difficult for Scotland to arrange another Independence Referendum, let alone have the stomach for one if they got it.

 

Another referendum on Scottish independence will never happen. The myth that Scotland voted to remain in the EU is total b0ll0x. They voted in favour of the UK remaining in the EU. So, constitutionally they need to:

1. Vote to leave the UK
   
2. Vote for Scotland to join the EU
   

As I said, that will never happen and is only a fantasy for Wee Jimmy Krankie. Joining the EU would be a financial disaster for an independent Scotland and Jocks are too fond of holding on to their money.

 

Mind you, without free movement of labour, what a laugh it would be putting border posts back up in Scotland....

[derry]

There are also the Remain voters to consider.

 

Conservative Remain voters will vote Conservative or not bother. Leavers will vote Conservative as long as we leave in accordance with their wishes or switch to UKIP if The government doesn't deliver. The left wing vote is pretty irrelevant to the Conservatives as it's divided amongst one rabble or another. UKIP is the only danger on the horizon for the Conservative vote. With FPTP it could cause all sorts of problems if it hoovers up spiteful Leave voters and win a lot of seats in England. Why the Conservatives are going to come out.

[Lord Duckhunter]

May should call Kramkie's bluff . An independence referendum is not a devolved issue only the uk government can call one . May should offer Krankie a fresh vote once we leave the EU and our trading relationship with Europe is known . The Sweatys then have a choice . In the uk and out of EU or part of the EU apart from the UK. There is no way , given the price of oil , the terms new members have to abide by or even the uncertainty as to whether Spain will let them join , that Krankie will take up the offer at that moment in time . Shame really because after getting rid of the dead hand of the EU , it'll be great to get the sponging , whining jocks off our backs . England really would be great and prosperous again .

[shurlock]

May should call Kramkie's bluff . An independence referendum is not a devolved issue only the uk government can call one . May should offer Krankie a fresh vote once we leave the EU and our trading relationship with Europe is known . The Sweatys then have a choice . In the uk and out of EU or part of the EU apart from the UK. There is no way , given the price of oil , the terms new members have to abide by or even the uncertainty as to whether Spain will let them join , that Krankie will take up the offer at that moment in time . Shame really because after getting rid of the dead hand of the EU , it'll be great to get the sponging , whining jocks off our backs . England really would be great and prosperous again .

 

[Whitey Grandad]

Conservative Remain voters will vote Conservative or not bother. Leavers will vote Conservative as long as we leave in accordance with their wishes or switch to UKIP if The government doesn't deliver. The left wing vote is pretty irrelevant to the Conservatives as it's divided amongst one rabble or another. UKIP is the only danger on the horizon for the Conservative vote. With FPTP it could cause all sorts of problems if it hoovers up spiteful Leave voters and win a lot of seats in England. Why the Conservatives are going to come out.

 

Conservative Remainers might very well vote for another party that promises to negotiate re-entry.

[John B]

Conservative Remainers might very well vote for another party that promises to negotiate re-entry.

Brexit impact is going to be horrible apparently so I wonder who will take the blame for the economy faltering for a year or so

[Batman]

Brexit impact is going to be horrible apparently so I wonder who will take the blame for the economy faltering for a year or so

 

jesus. hopefully the GRS will be over soon

[shurlock]

With the fall in sterling due to Brexit, foreign companies are licking their chops at the prospect of picking up British assets on the cheap. SoftBank’s proposed £24.3bn takeover of ARM, the Cambridge-based technology company and UK's largest player in the tech is the standout example.

 

Hermann Hauser, the founder of ARM calls it one of the “sad and unintended consequences” of Brexit...It’s a sad loss of independence. Britain is becoming a smaller and smaller player in the tech sector...The future of Arm could have been determined by the UK management team. Now it will be determined in Japan".

 

#takingbackcontrol

[Whitey Grandad]

With the fall in sterling due to Brexit, foreign companies are licking their chops at the prospect of picking up British assets on the cheap. SoftBank’s proposed £24.3bn takeover of ARM, the Cambridge-based technology company and UK's largest player in the tech is the standout example.

 

Hermann Hauser, the founder of ARM calls it one of the “sad and unintended consequences” of Brexit...It’s a sad loss of independence. Britain is becoming a smaller and smaller player in the tech sector...The future of Arm could have been determined by the UK management team. Now it will be determined in Japan".

 

#takingbackcontrol

 

It sounds like the same business model as Saints. Build up talent and then sell it on.

[Turkish]

With the fall in sterling due to Brexit, foreign companies are licking their chops at the prospect of picking up British assets on the cheap. SoftBank’s proposed £24.3bn takeover of ARM, the Cambridge-based technology company and UK's largest player in the tech is the standout example.

 

Hermann Hauser, the founder of ARM calls it one of the “sad and unintended consequences” of Brexit...It’s a sad loss of independence. Britain is becoming a smaller and smaller player in the tech sector...The future of Arm could have been determined by the UK management team. Now it will be determined in Japan".

 

#takingbackcontrol

 

Yeah because it takes less than two weeks to sell a company the size of ARM for £24b, deal of that size happen that quickly all the time

[shurlock]

Yeah because it takes less than two weeks to sell a company the size of ARM for £24b, deal of that size happen that quickly all the time

 

Yes pal, according to the FT, the deal was negotiated in two weeks - the negotiations were described as 'breakneck':

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/235b1af4-4c7f-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc.html#axzz4Elhsng7H

 

After just two weeks of breakneck negotiations, SoftBank said on Monday that it will pay £17 in cash for each share in Arm, a 43 per cent premium to its closing price last week. Shares in Arm surged to £16.78.

 

Guess you haven't read Hermann Hauser's statement then. ARM certainly plays into Softbank's long-term ambitions and its bet on the internet of things; they were possibly considering a move; but Brexit provided the opportunity to strike

 

The fall in sterling has made this very cheap and while I suspect they were considering it for a long time, they have acted now because the opportunity is there.

 

From the horse's mouth pal.

[Turkish]

Yes pal, according to the FT, the deal was negotiated in two weeks - the negotiations were described as 'breakneck':

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/235b1af4-4c7f-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc.html#axzz4Elhsng7H

 

 

 

Guess you haven't read Hermann Hauser's statement then. ARM certainly plays into Softbank's long-term ambitions and its bet on the internet of things; they were possibly considering a move; but Brexit provided the opportunity to strike

 

 

 

From the horse's mouth pal.

 

"Pal" twice, you've hammered me there!!

 

So you think a £24b deal suddenly happened in less than two weeks, it was never on the cards before. You've also ignored the FACT that clearly overseas companies are investing in Britain, they're going to at least double the UK based head count over the next five years creating over 4,000 jobs. If anything this is a good news story. But call me "pal" again, that's your knock out blow, pal

[Whitey Grandad]

"Pal" twice, you've hammered me there!!

 

So you think a £24b deal suddenly happened in less than two weeks, it was never on the cards before. You've also ignored the FACT that clearly overseas companies are investing in Britain, they're going to at least double the UK based head count over the next five years creating over 4,000 jobs. If anything this is a good news story. But call me "pal" again, that's your knock out blow, pal

 

'Good' that we are selling off our technological assets?

[shurlock]

"Pal" twice, you've hammered me there!!

 

So you think a £24b deal suddenly happened in less than two weeks, it was never on the cards before. You've also ignored the FACT that clearly overseas companies are investing in Britain, they're going to at least double the UK based head count over the next five years creating over 4,000 jobs. If anything this is a good news story. But call me "pal" again, that's your knock out blow, pal

 

I'm not saying it. I'm just citing the Financial Times. Or as the New York Times puts it:

 

Mr. Son said he first spoke with ARM’s chairman about two weeks ago regarding a possible takeover, and added that the deal came together quickly. The two sides eventually agreed to a price — more than 70 times ARM’s net earnings in 2015. The deal is expected to close in November

 

Alternatively I can take your word

 

Not sure what you mean by on the cards. I clearly said ARM plays into Softbank's long-term strategy as do lots of other potential targets, though considering a company doesn't necessarily mean it will crystallise into an offer. Rather I'm repeating Hermann Hauser's argument that Brexit provided the opportunity for SoftBank to strike.

 

Softbank plans to increase UK headcount; but the FACT remains that the big strategic calls over what is a potentially transformative industry will be made in Japan, not the UK. As long as you're comfortable with that, that's all that matters, pal.

Edited 18 July, 2016 by shurlock

[stevematthews635]

F...k me there are some clueless people on here. Anyone who believes a 24 billion takeover happens in 2 weeks is deluded. Due diligence alone would take many weeks if not months. This has been on the cards for months....it is not a firesale. And hauser will be more than happy to cash out.....that is his business model

 

Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk

[shurlock]

F...k me there are some clueless people on here. Anyone who believes a 24 billion takeover happens in 2 weeks is deluded. Due diligence alone would take many weeks if not months. This has been on the cards for months....it is not a firesale. And hauser will be more than happy to cash out.....that is his business model

 

Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk

 

You obviously can't read. Who says its a firesale or is claiming that Son woke up one day and decided on a whim that he wanted to buy ARM? No Softbank would have been scoping it for a while - just like it has been a host of other potential targets. But the serious business press claims that Son first spoke with ARM’s chairman only two weeks ago regarding a possible takeover. I guess the FT and NYT are clueless. Son has admitted as much himself. Many analysts are equally surprised by the speed of developments. I guess they're all clueless too pal

 

Son also revealed he had only met ARM’s chairman two weeks ago – right after the referendum result. Neil Campling, global head of telecoms, media and technology research for Northern Trust Capital Markets described the speed of the deal as “stunning”.

 

Paul Miller, senior analyst at Forrester, argued the coincidence was hard to ignore. “The post-referendum situation means that the pound is down. ARM is potentially billions of pounds cheaper than it was a fortnight ago,” he told WIRED. He added there was “clearly” an element of opportunism in the timing of the deal. “But we must not rule out the fact that ARM is worth having, it’s a good catch, it’s just a cheaper catch.”

 

The speed and timing of the deal, Campling suggested, could be due to interest from rival firms. “I’m not convinced this battle, or this situation, is finished. It may have only just started.” The likes of Apple, Intel, Qualcomm, Samsung and TSMC could all put in rival bids.

 

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/arm-softbank-deal-price-brexit-bidding-war

 

That's all it is at this stage -an offer- assuming there isn't a counteroffer. If a deal goes through, it won't be for months.

Edited 19 July, 2016 by shurlock

[Wes Tender]

With the fall in sterling due to Brexit, foreign companies are licking their chops at the prospect of picking up British assets on the cheap. SoftBank’s proposed £24.3bn takeover of ARM, the Cambridge-based technology company and UK's largest player in the tech is the standout example.

 

 

#takingbackcontrol

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/18/arm-holdings-to-be-sold-to-japans-softbank-for-234bn-reports-say

 

The deal comes weeks after Britain voted to leave the EU, battering sterling and strengthening the yen. However, the rise in ARM’s share price since 23 June has more than offset the weakened pound.

A spokesman said the deal made ARM 7% more expensive for SoftBank.

 

Swings and roundabouts

[buctootim]

Aside from the issues surrounding ARM, Brexit and exchange rate, there is a real issue in this country of companies being sold and losing their independence too soon / too easily. Britain isnt developing any serious world players in new technologies - despite a great record of innovation. Entrepreneurs in this country seem to sell out at an earlier stage of the business - taking some cash and running. In the US they stick around longer and build bigger.

 

I dont know what the answer is, but Im sure Government could do more to incentivise innovation and independence.

[hutch]

We invented tarmac, and we still have plenty of entrepreneurs in that field.

[Guided Missile]

Frau Merkel speaks:

[buctootim]

Frau Merkel speaks:

 

Don't forget Deutsche owes 50 times the GDP of Germany.

[Wade Garrett]

Spain and at least one other country has clearly said that they will not take Scotland in the EU on their own. Someone should just tell that sour-faced Krankie twot to f*ck off.

[Window Cleaner]

Spain and at least one other country has clearly said that they will not take Scotland in the EU on their own. Someone should just tell that sour-faced Krankie twot to f*ck off.

 

Kind of normal, Scotland would just be another drag on the richer nations of the EU with a no doubt negative contribution

and a non EU nation to cross to get there. Krankie just has delusions about the importance of her province.

[Verbal]

Interesting legal case began today. A Government QC from David Davis's Brexit Dept has told the court that Article 50 won't/can't be triggered before the end of the year. Which of course contradicts what Davis said only last week.

 

The judge (Leveson), pressed the government QC to give a clear summary of the government's position on A50. He couldn't - which wound the judge up no end, demanding that the QC "articulate in the language that is clear."

 

https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg

 

Slip sliding away...

[derry]

Conservative Remainers might very well vote for another party that promises to negotiate re-entry.

 

By the time that comes, we will be out. At the moment it looks like a split up for Labour. What Conservative would vote for that rabble or the LDs. UKIP could well be the beneficiary of the Leave Labour voters and end up with many seats in the North of England and would support the Conservatives in killing any re-entry move. Once we are out we won't be going back. By 2020 we will have settled down to life outside the EU.

[buctootim]

Interesting legal case began today. A Government QC from David Davis's Brexit Dept has told the court that Article 50 won't/can't be triggered before the end of the year. Which of course contradicts what Davis said only last week.

 

The judge (Leveson), pressed the government QC to give a clear summary of the government's position on A50. He couldn't - which wound the judge up no end, demanding that the QC "articulate in the language that is clear."

 

https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg

 

Slip sliding away...

 

"Lord Pannick QC: claimants have been deterred by racist antisemitic abuse and threats to Mishcon de Reya. Leveson: I take that v seriously"

 

What does this mean? That the case has been withdrawn by the claimants; that thry have been bothered by abuse but are carrying on; or that additional claimants have been deterred from joining the action?