Chelsea can only overtake us on GD

[Daft Kerplunk]

So we are all but guaranteed a finish no lower than 8th due to Chelsea's result last night. We are establishing ourselves as a top 8 club, now it's time to move on next season, as well as winning our last two games and seeing where we end up this season. I want that feeling Leicester have this morning, and I think, and although risk averse accountant types might disagree, to dream feels okay.

[Pilchards]

It would be nice to win a cup don't you think?

How we still celebrate 40 years on our only big achievement is embarrassing.

[CB Fry]

So we are all but guaranteed a finish no lower than 8th due to Chelsea's result last night. We are establishing ourselves as a top 8 club, now it's time to move on next season, as well as winning our last two games and seeing where we end up this season. I want that feeling Leicester have this morning, and I think, and although risk averse accountant types might disagree, to dream feels okay.

Why would "risk averse accountants" object to that? Last summer Leicester signed a full back on a free, Stoke's third choice centre back and, gosh, the only player in their squad they've spent eight whole million quid on. Wes Morgan and Mark Albrighton's wage bill won't be anything to worry about.

 

I think we can definitely stretch to do what Leicester did in the summer and snap up some nice cheap, low wage bargains. We've got loads of players we paid £8m or more for so probably covered in that department already.

 

Because that's what you want us to do, right?

[doddisalegend]

Why would "risk averse accountants" object to that? Last summer Leicester signed a full back on a free, Stoke's third choice centre back and, gosh, the only player in their squad they've spent eight whole million quid on. Wes Morgan and Mark Albrighton's wage bill won't be anything to worry about.

 

I think we can definitely stretch to do what Leicester did in the summer and snap up some nice cheap, low wage bargains. We've got loads of players we paid £8m or more for so probably covered in that department already.

 

Because that's what you want us to do, right?

 

 

The big downside of Leicester winning is the fans of every mid-table side going "why cant we do a Leicester?" like they somehow planned for this. The tinkerman even admitted his brief was to avoid relegation.

[Daft Kerplunk]

Why would "risk averse accountants" object to that? Last summer Leicester signed a full back on a free, Stoke's third choice centre back and, gosh, the only player in their squad they've spent eight whole million quid on. Wes Morgan and Mark Albrighton's wage bill won't be anything to worry about.

 

I think we can definitely stretch to do what Leicester did in the summer and snap up some nice cheap, low wage bargains. We've got loads of players we paid £8m or more for so probably covered in that department already.

 

Because that's what you want us to do, right?

 

I believe you are totally missing my point. It's not about Leicester having a dream, it's about us and the fact that many dullards think we shouldn't, and we should be happy that we have avoided relegation.

[Daft Kerplunk]

It would be nice to win a cup don't you think?

How we still celebrate 40 years on our only big achievement is embarrassing.

 

Yes it is, but thankfully the club weren't celebrating it, just commemorating it. It would be lovey to win a cup, and more.

[CB Fry]

I believe you are totally missing my point. It's not about Leicester having a dream, it's about us and the fact that many dullards think we shouldn't, and we should be happy that we have avoided relegation.

 

What have accountants, risk averse or otherwise, got to do with this dream then?

 

No one is stopping anyone dreaming about winning the league, but your mention of accountants suggests that financial investment is expected. What many people seem to "dream" about, and your post suggests you are one of them, is us seen to be spending more money than others.

 

As Leicester have proved this season, this isn't the right dream. Let your accountants know.

Edited 3 May, 2016 by CB Fry

[CB Fry]

The big downside of Leicester winning is the fans of every mid-table side going "why cant we do a Leicester?" like they somehow planned for this. The tinkerman even admitted his brief was to avoid relegation.

 

Let a summer of wild misinterpretation of what Leicester have achieved and how they achieved it commence.

[Redslo]

So we are all but guaranteed a finish no lower than 8th due to Chelsea's result last night. We are establishing ourselves as a top 8 club, now it's time to move on next season, as well as winning our last two games and seeing where we end up this season. I want that feeling Leicester have this morning, and I think, and although risk averse accountant types might disagree, to dream feels okay.

 

Why would "risk averse accountants" object to that? Last summer Leicester signed a full back on a free, Stoke's third choice centre back and, gosh, the only player in their squad they've spent eight whole million quid on. Wes Morgan and Mark Albrighton's wage bill won't be anything to worry about.

 

I think we can definitely stretch to do what Leicester did in the summer and snap up some nice cheap, low wage bargains. We've got loads of players we paid £8m or more for so probably covered in that department already.

 

Because that's what you want us to do, right?

 

Risk adverse accountant is one of the most peculiar insults I have seen in a while. It is so peculiar I have trouble visualizing what one of them would be doing in the context of being a Southampton FC fan. And I can usually visualize really strange things.

 

That being said, I don't think there is any way to replicate what Leicester did this year, but I do think there is reason to believe that the big money clubs will no longer be able to reliably guarantee themselves a top four finish year after year. Or perhaps, a better way of looking at it is that there will be 8 to 12 big money clubs in the league from now on.

 

But yes we should feel free to dream of titles and trophies for Southampton FC. But you might want to improve you chances by spreading your loyalties around a bit. I have had recent success with the San Francisco Giants and the Golden State Warriors. Your mileage may vary.

 

We should also be quite happy every season when we mathematically clinch relegation avoidance. Dreams are good. Nightmares are bad.

[shurlock]

Alas if our net spend had been in line with the league average, we might have had a bit more quality in the side and squad than we currently do -and been knocking on the door for top 4 this season.

Edited 3 May, 2016 by shurlock

[sadoldgit]

I think there is plenty of quality in the squad but our problem has been consistency. If Pelle, Tadic and Mane had played to their potential more frequently we would have more points.

[Lighthouse]

I think there is plenty of quality in the squad but our problem has been consistency. If Pelle, Tadic and Mane had played to their potential more frequently we would have more points.

 

If De Bruyne, Aguero and Toure...

If Carroll, Antonio and Payet...

If Schneiderlin, Rooney and Mata....

If Sanchez, Walcott and Giroud....

If Oscar, Hazard and Costa....

If Sturridge, Coutinho and Lallana....

If Bojan, Shaqiri and Arnautovic....

 

It's the most generic statement you could make.

[sadoldgit]

If De Bruyne, Aguero and Toure...

If Carroll, Antonio and Payet...

If Schneiderlin, Rooney and Mata....

If Sanchez, Walcott and Giroud....

If Oscar, Hazard and Costa....

If Sturridge, Coutinho and Lallana....

If Bojan, Shaqiri and Arnautovic....

 

It's the most generic statement you could make.

 

Doesn't make it wrong though does it?

[SaintBobby]

I am unsure whether Leicester winning is a "once in a century" sort of event or whether English football is levelling out.

 

We would need a risk adverse accountant to crunch the numbers, of course!

 

However, I'm wondering whether the huge influx of TV money makes it more likely that teams of the size of Leicester, Saints or West Brom could perhaps win the league more frequently in the future.

 

The fact that a higher percentage of revenue for each club is based on (roughly equal) TV rights is, potentially, a major leveller. It might be that in the 1990s, Man Utd were paying their players, say, £20K a week and we were paying players £2K a week. Now, they are paying players £150K a week and we are paying £50K a week. The cash gap is bigger but the ratio is much tighter.

 

Maybe it is eminently achievable for a club with a £100m pa turnover to outperform a club with a £400m pa turnover. Or at least considerably easier than a club with a £10m pa turnover outperforming a club with a £100m pa turnover.

[Lighthouse]

Doesn't make it wrong though does it?

 

It's not wrong, just meaningless.

[sadoldgit]

It's not wrong, just meaningless.

 

Not in the context it was said. Don't you think we have a decent squad on paper? Would you have thought at the start of the season we would all be raving about Vardy, Mahrez, Kante and Drinkwater?

[hutch]

It's not wrong, just meaningless.

But it is wrong. They're in our squad because they're inconsistent. If they were consistent they would be in Real Madrid's squad.

[ADutchSaint]

I think there is plenty of quality in the squad but our problem has been consistency. If Pelle, Tadic and Mane had played to their potential more frequently we would have more points.

 

Consistency is the key factor of quality players. Every player has his moments where everything goes right, they make all the rights decisions on the pitch and they look like world class players but you are only really class when you do that every single match.

 

We have a squad with good players, even great players and sometimes they even look like world class players but the lack of consistency makes them good/great players and thats why they are not playing for Real Madrid, Barca, Bayern or what ever top team.

 

If you ask me Pelle, Long, Tadic, Mané etc all play pretty much to their full potential. One match everything they do works out, the next one they might make all the wrong decisions. Nothing wrong with that really and its more then good enough for the level the club is chasing.

[sadoldgit]

And this is the thing. Leicester had players this year who managed a level of consistency through the season that they hadn't before. City, Arsenal, United and Chelsea all struggled to find that level despite having stronger squads on paper. You put together the strongest squad you can at the start of the season and you work hard to get the best out of them. Pelle, Mane, Tadic and I should add Wanyama all had patches of poor form. Not just a question of making poor decisions, but as Ron would say "not playing out of their level." Lighthouse pointed out quite rightly that many other clubs also had players who were not performing as they can. That is what winning and losing is all about - getting the best out of what you have. The margin between the two is very fine. Spuds nearly made it three before Chelsea equalised. If that third one went in everything changes. If Pelle, Tadic, Mane and Wanyama had found this level of form a few weeks back we would probably be looking at European football again next season. If the players that Lighthouse mentioned had all performed more consistently we probably wouldn't be talking about Leicester today. None of this means that we have a poor squad or that we don't have enough quality.

[Nordic Saint]

It would be great if this summer we invested in keeping players. I know it won't be cheap but, like all the other Premier League clubs we've got 200 million coming in next year, so we can afford to invest some of it. I'm fed up with the excuse that we have to sell players because other clubs will offer them better wages. We've made more out of the transfer market in recent years than any other club. There is no need to buy 30 million pound players but there is a need to keep them. Mane is improving all the time. He already has 13 goals this season. He'll probably score 20+ n4ext season. and that could take us into the top 4.

[buctootim]

I'm wondering whether the huge influx of TV money makes it more likely that teams of the size of Leicester, Saints or West Brom could perhaps win the league more frequently in the future.

 

I think it does. A decade or so ago the German , Italian and Spanish leagues were as wealthy as the PL. Clubs like Saints were lower in the pecking order for players than not just Man U and Madrid but Valencia, Roma and Schalke. The money gap was so wide good scouting and coaching couldnt bridge it. Now, with skill, luck and a great setup its possible. Still unlikely, but possible.

[Saint IQ]

Alas if our net spend had been in line with the league average, we might have had a bit more quality in the side and squad than we currently do -and been knocking on the door for top 4 this season.

 

Alas our net spend was 2nd lowest, the lowest being the 2nd best team in the league with the most goals and least goals conceded, Spurs.

[Saint IQ]

but then again net spend doesn't take into account wages and agent fees, which we are most likely at the bottom half of the table for rather than the top but then again we probably spend more on wages than Leicester

[CB Fry]

Alas if our net spend had been in line with the league average, we might have had a bit more quality in the side and squad than we currently do -and been knocking on the door for top 4 this season.

 

Laughable.

 

Your "average" is a pretty pointless metric when Spurs (net spend zero) have improved exponentially season-on-season while Man City (+£100m) and Man United (+£43m) have, kinda, not - weird really when it's the Manchester clubs with all the quality in the side, right?

 

Let's not talk about the stunning advances made by Stoke (I wish we were Stoke), Everton (I wish I wish we were Everton), Newcastle (I wish I wish I wish we were Newcastle), Watford (I wish I wish I wish I wish we were Watford), West Brom (you get the idea) and Sunderland (celebrating five glorious consecutive years of net spend growth - they must be top six now, right?) and Palace (THEY BOUGHT CABAYE WHY CAN'T WE BUY CABAYE)

 

It's almost like it is a metric with no great value at all, aint it?

 

Well done Ralph, Les and Ronald and the team on building and growing yet again.

[Whitey Grandad]

I am unsure whether Leicester winning is a "once in a century" sort of event or whether English football is levelling out.

 

We would need a risk adverse accountant to crunch the numbers, of course!

 

However, I'm wondering whether the huge influx of TV money makes it more likely that teams of the size of Leicester, Saints or West Brom could perhaps win the league more frequently in the future.

 

The fact that a higher percentage of revenue for each club is based on (roughly equal) TV rights is, potentially, a major leveller. It might be that in the 1990s, Man Utd were paying their players, say, £20K a week and we were paying players £2K a week. Now, they are paying players £150K a week and we are paying £50K a week. The cash gap is bigger but the ratio is much tighter.

 

Maybe it is eminently achievable for a club with a £100m pa turnover to outperform a club with a £400m pa turnover. Or at least considerably easier than a club with a £10m pa turnover outperforming a club with a £100m pa turnover.

 

The fist time that the bookmakers have ever paid out of a 5000:1 bet, apparently.

[shurlock]

Laughable.

 

Your "average" is a pretty pointless metric when Spurs (net spend zero) have improved exponentially season-on-season while Man City (+£100m) and Man United (+£43m) have, kinda, not - weird really when it's the Manchester clubs with all the quality in the side, right?

 

Let's not talk about the stunning advances made by Stoke (I wish we were Stoke), Everton (I wish I wish we were Everton), Newcastle (I wish I wish I wish we were Newcastle), Watford (I wish I wish I wish I wish we were Watford), West Brom (you get the idea) and Sunderland (celebrating five glorious consecutive years of net spend growth - they must be top six now, right?) and Palace (THEY BOUGHT CABAYE WHY CAN'T WE BUY CABAYE)

 

It's almost like it is a metric with no great value at all, aint it?

 

Well done Ralph, Les and Ronald and the team on building and growing yet again.

 

I've dealt with these questions in the past -yet you continue to flail, evade and deflect- all because you made a tit out of yourself a while back. May be ill respond when you've actually addressed my points. In the meantime, I'll watch you work yourself into a rage as you seemingly trail the issue into every other thread. CABAYE, CABAYE, CABAYE!!!!!!!

Edited 3 May, 2016 by shurlock

[SaintBobby]

The fist time that the bookmakers have ever paid out of a 5000:1 bet, apparently.

 

Sure, but the market prices for next year have altered accordingly. Leicester are about 30/1 as opposed to 5,000/1 this season. Saints are around 120/1 on Betfair (we usually start the season at 1,000/1). I think West Ham are about 60/1. These are all long-shots, but the aggregated price of a "smaller" club winning the league next year is probably about 6 or 7/1. A long shot, but not an insanely long shot. Put another way, the market prices now suggest it is quite likely that a club other than one of the top 6 (Man C, Man U, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool) will win the league in the next 4 or 5 years.

Edited 3 May, 2016 by SaintBobby
typo

[CB Fry]

I've dealt with these questions in the past -yet you continue to flail, evade and deflect- all because you made a tit out of yourself a while back. May be ill respond when you've actually addressed my points. In the meantime, I'll watch you work yourself into a rage as you seemingly trail the issue into every other thread. CABAYE, CABAYE, CABAYE!!!!!!!

 

What points?

 

Net spend as has been proven this season, and previous seasons, is not a particularly important metric. There are plenty of other metrics.

 

That's one single, consistent point.

 

No flailing, no evasion, no deflection.

 

One single, consistent point.

 

And I'm right.

 

Accept it and move on.

[david in sweden]

It would be nice to win a cup don't you think?

How we still celebrate 40 years on our only big achievement is embarrassing.

 

Embarrassment - do you really think so?

 

2016 is also the 50th anniversary of our first season in the top tier (Divisíon 1 as it used to be).

.......there are a lot of older fans who really rejoiced in that achievement when it happened.

 

...and what about the 125th Anniversary in 2010 - was that an embarrassment, too?

[The9]

Why would "risk averse accountants" object to that? Last summer Leicester signed a full back on a free, Stoke's third choice centre back and, gosh, the only player in their squad they've spent eight whole million quid on. Wes Morgan and Mark Albrighton's wage bill won't be anything to worry about.

 

I think we can definitely stretch to do what Leicester did in the summer and snap up some nice cheap, low wage bargains. We've got loads of players we paid £8m or more for so probably covered in that department already.

 

Because that's what you want us to do, right?

 

It's the bit where we need to go an entire season fielding a core of about 14 players with hardly any injuries or suspensions until it barely matters that'll be the problem.

 

Like it is for every other club every other season normally, and like it most likely will be next year.

 

Will be interesting to see if the reallocation of funds more evenly makes any significant difference to the ability of "the rest" (inc Leicester) next season or if it's the case that we're already in a bizarre post-modern world where hugely paid squad members exist to "not play for other teams" as opposed to actually playing for their employer in any useful fashion, rendering their monetary advantages irrelevant to the business of winning the League.

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that even with the gap closing, the usual "top 6" will still have all the best players on the most money, and the presence of new managers at Chelsea and Man City (and maybe Man United) might give their lazy stars a kick up the ar5e. But on the bright side, there will still be lots of interesting signings of some higher profile players for "the rest" as well. Then again I said Leicester would "do a Saints" and drop off to 6th or 7th... but they'll be glad of finishing that high next season.

[The9]

...and what about the 125th Anniversary in 2010 - was that an embarrassment, too?

 

Aside from the awesome kit, the lack of official 125th celebration (and the dreadful red nose badge) was more of an embarrassment than anything that actually was done. But is a 125th Anniversary really a big deal anyway? 130 passed with barely a word last year.

 

The 40th Anniversary Cup Final thing seemed to be a bit of an "old man's" event to me, even though I know we have an older fanbase than most due to demography, I was very surprised at the decent turnout when I personally didn't see anything or even know it was happening. Then again I'm not even going to Kelvin's testimonial so it's partially my priorities on non-competitive matches and partially the "before my time" thing. I had a bloody good time celebrating two promotions and a JPT win, so it's not that...

[The9]

What points?

 

Net spend as has been proven this season, and previous seasons, is not a particularly important metric. There are plenty of other metrics.

 

That's one single, consistent point.

 

No flailing, no evasion, no deflection.

 

One single, consistent point.

 

And I'm right.

 

Accept it and move on.

 

Net spend isn't, but practically any other season total wages is. It's been proven to be a very strong correlation, stronger than goals scored even.

 

This season is of course an anomaly, just like Leicester are for pretty much everything else.

[The9]

Maybe it is eminently achievable for a club with a £100m pa turnover to outperform a club with a £400m pa turnover. Or at least considerably easier than a club with a £10m pa turnover outperforming a club with a £100m pa turnover.

 

Precisely this, allied to the fact that with the right timing a club can get players for a year or two before they naturally move up to the higher wages offered by the clubs in that Elite bracket.

[Miltonaggro]

It would be nice to win a cup don't you think?

How we still celebrate 40 years on our only big achievement is embarrassing.

 

You are absolutely right, and I think is the key to organic growth, top eight challenging and a few cup wins in the next five or six years would consolidate the club very nicely (I'd settle for two FA Cups, a League Cup, and the Europa - no pressure...). I remember the momentum from the FA Cup win lasting for a decade and it would be nice to give our great club that extra zip!