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Leicester vs Saints Build Up Thread

Dark Munster

By Dark Munster,
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Dalek2003

Dalek2003

Posted
Posted
As Norwich play both Sunderland and Newcastle in the run in, there is one scenario where all three of these teams get to 47 points. I really must get out more. So in theory we could still get relegated, but would need a massive swing in GD.

 

So we need one more point to be safe for another season, or else hope that results on Saturday go our way. Fingers crossed.

 

You can then go into hibernation and start posting the relegation posts when next season starts.

 

You may have noticed that I have been in semi hibernation. But, you are right, no need to post until the summer transfer window opens.

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John Cool

John Cool

Posted
Posted
As Norwich play both Sunderland and Newcastle in the run in, there is one scenario where all three of these teams get to 47 points. I really must get out more. So in theory we could still get relegated, but would need a massive swing in GD.

 

So we need one more point to be safe for another season, or else hope that results on Saturday go our way. Fingers crossed.

 

You can then go into hibernation and start posting the relegation posts when next season starts.

 

If Norwich lose to both Newcastle and Sunderland then it is possible for both the victors to finish above Saints. So there might still be a very slim chance of relegation. On the plus side, according to this website http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html if we beat Leicester our chances of top 4 go from 1% to 4%.

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Matthew Le God

Matthew Le God

Posted
Posted
If Norwich lose to both Newcastle and Sunderland then it is possible for both the victors to finish above Saints. So there might still be a very slim chance of relegation.

 

It is not mathematically possible for all the teams from 8th to 18th to get more than the 47 points Saints currently have.

 

Whilst it is possible all those teams individually can get that amount of points, it isn't possible they all can together in what remains of the season, as in order to do so they would be taking points off the others.

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scotty

scotty

Posted
Posted
It is not mathematically possible for all the teams from 8th to 18th to get more than the 47 points Saints currently have.

 

Whilst it is possible all those teams individually can get that amount of points, it isn't possible they all can together in what remains of the season, as in order to do so they would be taking points off the others.

 

You're forgetting other factors here. For instance, what would be the precise ramifications of a mass epidemic of plague or something, causing some clubs to have to withdraw from the competition altogether? We could still be relegated if there were fewer teams below us than there are currently.

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted
Actually it is, on goal difference.

 

I'm looking forward to someone working it out. It'll probably be me...

 

For instance, as well as the Newcastle/Sunderland/Norwich thing, which requires a specific set of results, you'd then have to have Palace still able to get 14 points from their 8 games despite losing to whichever of those 3 had to play them, and so on.

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted
You're forgetting other factors here. For instance, what would be the precise ramifications of a mass epidemic of plague or something, causing some clubs to have to withdraw from the competition altogether? We could still be relegated if there were fewer teams below us than there are currently.

 

To save MLG the trouble, in that situation the teams who pulled out of the competition would be relegated (possibly more than 3 if they couldn't play next season either). So it's only an issue if Saints get the plague, and surely in that situation they'd just field a bunch of kids to finish the season knowing that 47 points is almost certainly enough to stay up already.

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted (edited)
Actually it is, on goal difference.

 

Ok, so I did work it out. Basic methodology - add in 1-0 wins for Norwich, Newcastle, Sunderland and 1-0 losses for Saints in all possible matches, then look to see how many points or goals were needed. Tweak it until those three (not even just 2 of those three) were above Saints - which meant upping their wins to 2-0 and 3-0, and Saints losses to 2-0 and 3-0, and where they played each other making the games higher scoring so they'd win out on against Saints on goals scored if it was a factor.

 

Then look at the table again, see who had the fewest games left below Saints and get them above us by giving them wins against the sides already above Saints. Ignore Villa, who can't catch us and will finish at least 10 points behind us even now. Then check the table again, see who is now nearest the bottom or has fewest games left. Give them some wins too. Repeat until everyone except Villa is above us.

 

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

 

It's definitely possible, I had us coming 19th on 47 points, with Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland all on 47 with better goal differences (which admittedly required them to win some unlikely matches by 2 or 3 goals and Saints lose all of ours by at least 2). But there are PLENTY of points to go around in mid-table to have teams finish on more than 47, to the point where I was just padding non-key games with 1-1s with about 5 weeks of the season left.

#	Team	        M.	W.	D.	L.	Goals	Dif.	Pt.
1	Leicester City  38	21	12	5	61:38	+23	75
2	Tottenham 	38	18	12	8	61:31	+30	66
3	Manchester C	38	16	10	12	59:40	+19	58
4	Arsenal FC	38	16	10	12	51:43	+8	58
5	Manchester U	38	15	12	11	43:36	+7	57
6	West Ham U	38	13	16	9	52:45	+7	55
7	West Brom 	38	14	12	12	37:42	-5	54
8	AFC B'mouth	38	14	11	13	45:53	-8	53
9	Watford FC	38	15	7	16	40:38	+2	52
10	Crystal Palace	38	15	6	17	45:46	-1	51
11	Liverpool FC	38	14	9	15	48:51	-3	51
12	Stoke City	38	14	9	15	37:45	-8	51
13	Chelsea FC	38	12	14	12	50:48	+2	50
14	Swansea City	38	13	11	14	39:44	-5	50
15	Everton FC 	38	12	13	13	60:51	+9	49
16	Sunderland AFC	38	13	8	17	53:58	-5	47
17	Newcastle       38	13	8	17	48:57	-9	47
18	Norwich City	38	13	8	17	50:60	-10	47
19	Saints          38	13	8	17	41:51	-10	47
20	Aston Villa	38	4	8	26	25:68	-43	20

 

It's not worth me uploading all the scores, no-one will read them anyway. Key results, Norwich 2-2 Newcastle, Palace 2-4 Norwich, Saints 0-3 Newcastle, Norwich 3-2 Sunderland, Villa 2-0 Saints, Liverpool 0-3 Newcastle, Norwich 3-0 Watford, Sunderland 3-0 Arsenal, Newcastle 2-0 Palace, Stoke 0-2 Sunderland, Arsenal 0-2 Norwich, Saints 0-3 Man C, Villa 0-3 Newcastle, Norwich 2-0 Man U, Sunderland 2-0 Chelsea, Spurs 3-0 Saints, Everton 0-2 Norwich, Newcastle 2-0 Spurs, Watford 0-2 Sunderland.

 

I didn't say it was LIKELY, just possible.

Edited by The9
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ALWAYS_SFC

ALWAYS_SFC

Posted
Posted
Ok, so I did work it out.

 

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

 

It's definitely possible, I had us coming 19th on 47 points, with Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland all on 47 with better goal differences (which admittedly required them to win some unlikely matches by 2 or 3 goals and Saints lose all of ours by at least 2). But there are PLENTY of points to go around in mid-table to have teams finish on more than 47, to the point where I was just padding non-key games with 1-1s with about 5 weeks of the season left.

#	Team	        M.	W.	D.	L.	Goals	Dif.	Pt.
1	Leicester City  38	21	12	5	61:38	+23	75
2	Tottenham 	38	18	12	8	61:31	+30	66
3	Manchester C	38	16	10	12	59:40	+19	58
4	Arsenal FC	38	16	10	12	51:43	+8	58
5	Manchester U	38	15	12	11	43:36	+7	57
6	West Ham U	38	13	16	9	52:45	+7	55
7	West Brom 	38	14	12	12	37:42	-5	54
8	AFC B'mouth	38	14	11	13	45:53	-8	53
9	Watford FC	38	15	7	16	40:38	+2	52
10	Crystal Palace	38	15	6	17	45:46	-1	51
11	Liverpool FC	38	14	9	15	48:51	-3	51
12	Stoke City	38	14	9	15	37:45	-8	51
13	Chelsea FC	38	12	14	12	50:48	+2	50
14	Swansea City	38	13	11	14	39:44	-5	50
15	Everton FC 	38	12	13	13	60:51	+9	49
16	Sunderland AFC	38	13	8	17	53:58	-5	47
17	Newcastle       38	13	8	17	48:57	-9	47
18	Norwich City	38	13	8	17	50:60	-10	47
19	Saints          38	13	8	17	41:51	-10	47
20	Aston Villa	38	4	8	26	25:68	-43	20

 

It's not worth me uploading all the scores, no-one will read them anyway.

 

OH NO!! :scared: The Dalek loon will be here any minute

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VectisSaint

VectisSaint

Posted
Posted
Ok, so I did work it out.

I didn't say it was LIKELY, just possible.

Well done. I effectively did the same as you. Of course its not going to happen.

 

I was a bit concerned to post, because I knew it would confuse CB Fry and make him think that I really believed it could happen and then he would misquote me for ever and a day :)

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted (edited)

Actually it's fairly amazing what you can make happen with that predictor at your disposal:

 

#	Team   	        M.	W.	D.	L.	Goals	Dif.	Pt.
1	Leicester City	38	22	11	5	61:37	24	77
2	Tottenham H	38	20	12	6	63:29	34	72
3	Arsenal FC	38	18	10	10	53:40	13	64
4	Manchester C	38	18	9	11	60:38	22	63
5	Liverpool FC	38	17	9	12	52:47	5	60
6	Manchester U	38	16	11	11	43:35	8	59
7	West Ham U	38	13	15	10	51:44	7	54
8	Everton FC	38	12	11	15	58:53	5	47
9	Chelsea FC	38	11	14	13	49:49	0	47
10	Watford FC	38	13	8	17	37:40	-3	47
11	Crystal Palace	38	13	8	17	42:48	-6	47
12	Sunderland AFC	38	13	8	17	51:58	-7	47
13	Newcastle U	38	13	8	17	48:57	-9	47
14	Swansea City	38	12	11	15	37:46	-9	47
15	Stoke City	38	13	8	17	35:44	-9	47
16	West Brom	38	12	11	15	34:43	-9	47
17	Norwich City    38	13	8	17	50:60	-10	47
18	AFC B'mouth	38	12	11	15	45:55	-10	47
19	Saints	        38	13	8	17	41:51	-10	47
20	Aston Villa     38	6	9	23	28:64	-36	27

 

Once you get beyond that point, there aren't enough non-critical fixtures left to leave West Ham on 47 points as well without sodding up everyone else's points scores so I left well enough alone.

 

And if anyone wants to "typical Saints" it, one consolation goal at home to Palace on the last day would keep us up, despite still losing 2-1. Or any two of Chelsea, Bournemouth, Stoke, Swansea or West Brom conceding one more goal on the last day.

 

Also, scoring two more goals on the last day would put us 8th. :D

Edited by The9
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The9

The9

Posted
Posted

I've also done one where we win the league. 68 points. Arsenal 2nd on goal difference by one goal, Saints having won by one goal more than them on the last day. Man City and Man United on 67 (also both won on the last day), Spurs 5th (drew at Newcastle), West Ham (lost at Stoke) 6th, Leicester came 7th, having lost 2-0 at Chelsea and having been top at the start of the day on goal difference from West Ham... :D

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted (edited)
How about to win the league though?

 

As if I wasn't going to do that. ;) We were 5th at the start of the last day!

 

#	Team	         M.	W.	D.	L.	Goals	Dif.	Pt.
1	Saints    	 38	20	8	10	53:32	21	68
2	Arsenal          38	19	11	8	55:35	20	68
3	Manchester C     38	20	7	11	60:37	23	67
4	Manchester U     38	19	10	9	47:30	17	67
5	Tottenham        38	18	12	8	58:30	28	66
6	West Ham         38	18	12	8	55:40	15	66
7	Leicester C      38	19	9	10	54:39	15	66
8	Chelsea          38	17	12	9	60:44	16	63

 

Arsenal 1-0 Villa

Chelsea 2-0 Leicester

Man Utd 2-0 AFC Bournemouth

Newcastle 1-1 Spurs

Saints 2-0 Palace

Stoke 2-1 West Ham

Swansea 0-1 Man City

 

Realistically, even if it only came down to us having to beat Palace by more than Arsenal beat Villa I'm not sure I'd expect us to do that. :o

Edited by The9
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scotty

scotty

Posted
Posted
To save MLG the trouble, in that situation the teams who pulled out of the competition would be relegated (possibly more than 3 if they couldn't play next season either). So it's only an issue if Saints get the plague, and surely in that situation they'd just field a bunch of kids to finish the season knowing that 47 points is almost certainly enough to stay up already.

 

We wouldn't be allowed to field a team of kids. They'd obviously be needed by the nation for breeding purposes. Please, think before you post.

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Deano6

Deano6

Posted
Posted
Ok, so I did work it out. Basic methodology - add in 1-0 wins for Norwich, Newcastle, Sunderland and 1-0 losses for Saints in all possible matches, then look to see how many points or goals were needed. Tweak it until those three (not even just 2 of those three) were above Saints - which meant upping their wins to 2-0 and 3-0, and Saints losses to 2-0 and 3-0, and where they played each other making the games higher scoring so they'd win out on against Saints on goals scored if it was a factor.

 

Why did you bother doing that, when you could have just had Saints lose by one more goal on the last day?

 

I appreciate most people would have focussed on just my first 4 words!

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CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted
That was too easy! I didn't work anything out, I just wanted to see if anyone would be bothered to spend the time and check if it was true or not.

 

You tried that the other day and no one believed you then either.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted
Well done. I effectively did the same as you. Of course its not going to happen.

 

I was a bit concerned to post, because I knew it would confuse CB Fry and make him think that I really believed it could happen and then he would misquote me for ever and a day :)

 

Except you did mean it. I don't need to dig the thread up but you were getting jolly upset at anyone saying we were too good to go down, and backed that up with two steaming piles of horses hit, one about how Newcastle can definitely finish above us because you thought we might only win one more game (this was January FFS) and another about how 40 points won't be enough this season, and I believe you went to 42 not being enough.

 

You said that sh ite, and looked like a plum then. And you now blathering that how dare anyone say we can't finish fourth makes that rant look even more pathetic.

 

Nice try. Nice try.

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted
Why did you bother doing that, when you could have just had Saints lose by one more goal on the last day?

 

I appreciate most people would have focussed on just my first 4 words!

 

Equally I could have just had Norwich/Newcastle and Sunderland win a load of games by 5, but I was trying to keep it as realistic as it could be. Palace could have been in the mix too. You're right though, once I'd had a good mess around it was fairly obvious I could have worked around it... I managed to get half the division to finish on 47 points after all. :D

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted
We wouldn't be allowed to field a team of kids. They'd obviously be needed by the nation for breeding purposes. Please, think before you post.

 

Even so, we wouldn't get relegated, because if the competition was suspended there would be more than 3 teams below us and if we had to forfeit every game we'd still have enough points to stay up barring a nearly-as-unlikely-as-a-plague set of results.

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scotty

scotty

Posted
Posted
Even so, we wouldn't get relegated, because if the competition was suspended there would be more than 3 teams below us and if we had to forfeit every game we'd still have enough points to stay up barring a nearly-as-unlikely-as-a-plague set of results.

 

Ah, but what if every team but saints had to withdraw from the PL because of the plague? Would we be considered to be top, and win it, or bottom and be relegated? These are serious questions which need to be addressed. I can only hope that the board have planned for the possibility.

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Dalek2003

Dalek2003

Posted
Posted
Ok, so I did work it out. Basic methodology - add in 1-0 wins for Norwich, Newcastle, Sunderland and 1-0 losses for Saints in all possible matches, then look to see how many points or goals were needed. Tweak it until those three (not even just 2 of those three) were above Saints - which meant upping their wins to 2-0 and 3-0, and Saints losses to 2-0 and 3-0, and where they played each other making the games higher scoring so they'd win out on against Saints on goals scored if it was a factor.

 

Then look at the table again, see who had the fewest games left below Saints and get them above us by giving them wins against the sides already above Saints. Ignore Villa, who can't catch us and will finish at least 10 points behind us even now. Then check the table again, see who is now nearest the bottom or has fewest games left. Give them some wins too. Repeat until everyone except Villa is above us.

 

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

 

It's definitely possible, I had us coming 19th on 47 points, with Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland all on 47 with better goal differences (which admittedly required them to win some unlikely matches by 2 or 3 goals and Saints lose all of ours by at least 2). But there are PLENTY of points to go around in mid-table to have teams finish on more than 47, to the point where I was just padding non-key games with 1-1s with about 5 weeks of the season left.

#	Team	        M.	W.	D.	L.	Goals	Dif.	Pt.
1	Leicester City  38	21	12	5	61:38	+23	75
2	Tottenham 	38	18	12	8	61:31	+30	66
3	Manchester C	38	16	10	12	59:40	+19	58
4	Arsenal FC	38	16	10	12	51:43	+8	58
5	Manchester U	38	15	12	11	43:36	+7	57
6	West Ham U	38	13	16	9	52:45	+7	55
7	West Brom 	38	14	12	12	37:42	-5	54
8	AFC B'mouth	38	14	11	13	45:53	-8	53
9	Watford FC	38	15	7	16	40:38	+2	52
10	Crystal Palace	38	15	6	17	45:46	-1	51
11	Liverpool FC	38	14	9	15	48:51	-3	51
12	Stoke City	38	14	9	15	37:45	-8	51
13	Chelsea FC	38	12	14	12	50:48	+2	50
14	Swansea City	38	13	11	14	39:44	-5	50
15	Everton FC 	38	12	13	13	60:51	+9	49
16	Sunderland AFC	38	13	8	17	53:58	-5	47
17	Newcastle       38	13	8	17	48:57	-9	47
18	Norwich City	38	13	8	17	50:60	-10	47
19	Saints          38	13	8	17	41:51	-10	47
20	Aston Villa	38	4	8	26	25:68	-43	20

 

It's not worth me uploading all the scores, no-one will read them anyway. Key results, Norwich 2-2 Newcastle, Palace 2-4 Norwich, Saints 0-3 Newcastle, Norwich 3-2 Sunderland, Villa 2-0 Saints, Liverpool 0-3 Newcastle, Norwich 3-0 Watford, Sunderland 3-0 Arsenal, Newcastle 2-0 Palace, Stoke 0-2 Sunderland, Arsenal 0-2 Norwich, Saints 0-3 Man C, Villa 0-3 Newcastle, Norwich 2-0 Man U, Sunderland 2-0 Chelsea, Spurs 3-0 Saints, Everton 0-2 Norwich, Newcastle 2-0 Spurs, Watford 0-2 Sunderland.

 

I didn't say it was LIKELY, just possible.

 

Right, that's got me out of hibernation. We need to win against Leicester. A six pointer. Lose, and we could be sleepwalking to relegation.

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cellone

cellone

Posted
Posted
Don't panic, a draw will be enough to ensure our survival.

 

It will be touch and go but I will stake my Knows everything about football reputation on us avoiding the drop this season. In fact if any of you are betting men I advise you to put at least £1.20. on it.

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scotty

scotty

Posted
Posted
It will be touch and go but I will stake my Knows everything about football reputation on us avoiding the drop this season. In fact if any of you are betting men I advise you to put at least £1.20. on it.

 

If any of them were betting men they probably wouldn't have £1.20 to put on it.

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suewhistle

suewhistle

Posted
Posted

I've just been back to the start of the thread to reassure myself on the title.

 

Anyway, I have to comment on the fact thats Saints are a very well documented club, had one of the first fanzines in the UK (Junk Mail), has it's own dedicated publishing house, loads of historians and now multiple statisticians. I't's been an interesting thread, latterly made me laugh, but can't help thinking that a few people have probably been eating dried mushrooms from The Common and have too much time on their hands. ;-)

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