Reaching the Europa Lge...

[saint lard]

Quite feasible we could do it again this season.

Would be a pretty impressive achievement.

 

Are we on the cusp of being classed As a 'perennial' top 10 club?

I think so.

 

 

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[Shroppie]

Quite feasible we could do it again this season.

Would be a pretty impressive achievement.

 

Are we on the cusp of being classed As a 'perennial' top 10 club?

I think so.

 

 

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This is pretty certain to guarantee we lose three on the bounce now and get back in the relegation scramble. ??

 

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[david in sweden]

Quite feasible we could do it again this season.

Would be a pretty impressive achievement.

 

Are we on the cusp of being classed As a 'perennial' top 10 club?

I think so. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Being " Top 10 club " sounds good, but to get into Europe we'd need to see " a Chelsea or a Liverpool " type club slump down every season, and then get some luck.

[onthemarch]

as thing stand we would just need City to win the league cup & one of the to 6 to win the FA cup

 

Not unlikely

[norwaysaint]

No such thing as a perennial top ten club. If you aren't one of those vying for CL spots, you will be prone to slipping up and down the table. The closest to what you say would probably be West Ham and Everton (Spurs and Liverpool are usually in contention) and nobody would be shocked to see them finish close to relegation.

[CB Fry]

as thing stand we would just need City to win the league cup & one of the to 6 to win the FA cup

 

Not unlikely

Yep. I don't think we can finish higher than 7th so will need some favours.

[Mr Biscuits]

Tbh I think we should worry less about what the other teams are doing and concentrate on what we are doing.

In this league you're either top 6, mid table or in a relegation fight. We need to be breaking that top 6.

[Saint_clark]

as thing stand we would just need City to win the league cup & one of the to 6 to win the FA cup

 

Not unlikely

 

No reason we can't finish 6th and improve on last season yet again. West Ham becomes massive now...

[norwaysaint]

Tbh I think we should worry less about what the other teams are doing and concentrate on what we are doing.

 

I have no idea what this means.

 

Who is it you are talking about that needs to stop worrying about other teams and concentrate on what we're doing?

 

Is it the players? Do you think they are being distracted from trying to win matches, because they're busy wondering about other results? That seems a bit unlikely. Is it the club, not bothering to put out the best team it manages, in the hope other teams aren't? That also seems unlikely.

 

Or are you talking about football fans, suggesting they shouldn't take any interest in our position in relation to other teams, despite the fact this has no influence on anything? That seems an odd thing to suggest.

 

Honestly wondering what you mean. I didn't understand that post at all.

[Redslo]

I have no idea what this means.

 

Who is it you are talking about that needs to stop worrying about other teams and concentrate on what we're doing?

 

Is it the players? Do you think they are being distracted from trying to win matches, because they're busy wondering about other results? That seems a bit unlikely. Is it the club, not bothering to put out the best team it manages, in the hope other teams aren't? That also seems unlikely.

 

Or are you talking about football fans, suggesting they shouldn't take any interest in our position in relation to other teams, despite the fact this has no influence on anything? That seems an odd thing to suggest.

 

Honestly wondering what you mean. I didn't understand that post at all.

 

Maybe he thinks we are too distracted by all this football nonsense and should concentrate on the things that matter in our personal lives. He is right. I am going to bed.

[mrfahaji]

Yep. I don't think we can finish higher than 7th so will need some favours.

 

I think it's better to wait until after the West Ham game before ruling this out completely, a win would put us in touching distance of them. Unless you're assuming Liverpool will finish above us, because they literally always do...!

[The9]

Quite feasible we could do it again this season.

Would be a pretty impressive achievement.

 

Are we on the cusp of being classed As a 'perennial' top 10 club?

I think so.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

My expectations this season were top half and see how far we could go in Europe. After we got knocked out of Europe it was "get to a Cup Final or finish 7th and hope the top 4 sides hoover up the Cups again".

 

We won't get into the Europa even coming 7th unless Man City win the League Cup (or Liverpool do and finish top 4, which is as unlikely as us coming top 4), and one of the top 4 (top 6 maybe, can't remember?) also wins the FA Cup.

[benjii]

My expectations this season were top half and see how far we could go in Europe. After we got knocked out of Europe it was "get to a Cup Final or finish 7th and hope the top 4 sides hoover up the Cups again".

 

We won't get into the Europa even coming 7th unless Man City win the League Cup (or Liverpool do and finish top 4, which is as unlikely as us coming top 4), and one of the top 4 (top 6 maybe, can't remember?) also wins the FA Cup.

 

Isn't it this:

 

1) 5th qualifies for Europa.

 

2) If one of the top 5 wins the League Cup then 6th will qualify for Europa.

 

3) If one of the top 5, or top 6 if item two happens, win the FA Cup then 7th will qualify for the Europa.

 

You would have to think there is a pretty good chance of 2) happening given City have to beat Liverpool in the final and City will certainly finish in the top 5.

 

You would also have to think there is a pretty good chance of item 3 happening although Chelsea's league position counts against that as, on their day, they are still one of the top two teams. Hopefully City can knock them out in the next round. Obviously there are outliers but, in the last 10 years, Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City have won the FA Cup 7 times. Liverpool won it in 05/06 and they finished third in the league then. When the Skates won it they finished 8th which is a relative outlier. Wigan won it the other time, which was a genuine exception.

 

So, in summary, I reckon 6th is very likely to get a team into Europa and 7th is also pretty likely.

 

We should be targeting 6th place now - this Saturday's match is a real big one for the club. West Ham have Norwich then Sunderland after this weekend so you would think anything other than a win will make it very hard for us to finish higher than we are now. Having said that, another injury to Payet and they become a very ordinary side again.

[benjii]

Sorry, item 3 should say 6th or 7th will qualify, depending on whether item 2 has happened.

[The9]

Sorry, item 3 should say 6th or 7th will qualify, depending on whether item 2 has happened.

 

Yup, sounds about right - as with last season, but when we were seriously talking about it last year Chelsea had already won the League Cup and we were still in the top 4.

 

Liverpool beating City in the League Cup is not THAT unlikely, and puts the mockers on 7th. We could finish 6th, but are unlikely to finish above that based on the teams which are above (and the lead the one most likely to drop off already has). Plus if you look at the table, we're only one point more ahead of 15th than we are behind 6th at the moment.

 

Completely agree with you on Payet, btw. The last time he was out they didn't win in the next 6 matches, which included playing West Brom, Swansea and Villa.

Edited 3 February, 2016 by The9

[Nordic Saint]

I'd love to see us get into Europe again and make a better job of it next time. Right now, 6th or 7th looks distinctly possible, but 5th is probably beyond us, so whether we do may depend on the cup winners.

 

Perennial top 10 finishers? I'd like to see us become the next Leicester!

[Whitey Grandad]

Isn't it this:

 

1) 5th qualifies for Europa.

 

2) If one of the top 5 wins the League Cup then 6th will qualify for Europa.

 

3) If one of the top 5, or top 6 if item two happens, win the FA Cup then 7th will qualify for the Europa.

 

You would have to think there is a pretty good chance of 2) happening given City have to beat Liverpool in the final and City will certainly finish in the top 5.

 

You would also have to think there is a pretty good chance of item 3 happening although Chelsea's league position counts against that as, on their day, they are still one of the top two teams. Hopefully City can knock them out in the next round. Obviously there are outliers but, in the last 10 years, Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City have won the FA Cup 7 times. Liverpool won it in 05/06 and they finished third in the league then. When the Skates won it they finished 8th which is a relative outlier. Wigan won it the other time, which was a genuine exception.

 

So, in summary, I reckon 6th is very likely to get a team into Europa and 7th is also pretty likely.

 

We should be targeting 6th place now - this Saturday's match is a real big one for the club. West Ham have Norwich then Sunderland after this weekend so you would think anything other than a win will make it very hard for us to finish higher than we are now. Having said that, another injury to Payet and they become a very ordinary side again.

 

What happens if the team finishing 5th wins the FA Cup?

[Shroppie]

Just for amusement, factor in Liverpool or Spurs winning the Europa League. That would give them a Champions League place.

 

Would there then be an extra CL place for England? In any case, if say Liverpool finish 5th and win Europa, that must free up a Europa place.

 

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[Whitey Grandad]

Just for amusement, factor in Liverpool or Spurs winning the Europa League. That would give them a Champions League place.

 

Would there then be an extra CL place for England? In any case, if say Liverpool finish 5th and win Europa, that must free up a Europa place.

 

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An interesting point, but I don't think I would find Liverpool winning the Europa Cup very amusing.

[Shroppie]

An interesting point, but I don't think I would find Liverpool winning the Europa Cup very amusing.

Likewise but if that were needed for Saints to get into Europe, would be mixed feelings.

 

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[Chris27687]

One thing that i never understood is why spurs never took all those years in the Europa league more seriously - you get into the champions league for winning it...

 

Liverpool are going to have to take it seriously if they get into it next year as they aren't going to be finishing in the top 4.

[Shroppie]

One thing that i never understood is why spurs never took all those years in the Europa league more seriously - you get into the champions league for winning it...

 

Liverpool are going to have to take it seriously if they get into it next year as they aren't going to be finishing in the top 4.

This is the first year winning it gets you a CL place.

 

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[Pamplemousse]

Sevilla won the Europa League last season and as a result 5 teams from Spain entered the Champions League. I don't think it would have an impact on other teams.

[Shroppie]

Sevilla won the Europa League last season and as a result 5 teams from Spain entered the Champions League. I don't think it would have an impact on other teams.

I stand corrected. It stared last year.

 

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[JakkoUK]

I stand corrected. It stared last year.

 

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I thought it was always the case? At least ever since I can remember.

[Wes Tender]

According to this article featured in the Express, according to Football Manager, we will end the season in 13th position

 

http://www.express.co.uk/pictures/galleries/4605/Football-Manager-predicts-Premier-League-tabel-sportgalleries

 

These morons reckon that despite being in 7th position after 24 matches, we will drop 6 places in the remaining 14 games. We will only win another 3 games, draw another 2 and lose 9! Our goal difference will go from +8 to -1. We will drop from an average 1.42 goals a match, to .78 goals a match in the remaining 14 games for some reason.

 

Watford, Stoke, Palace, Liverpool, Everton and Chelsea, who are all below us at the moment, will leapfrog us. Liverpool maybe, Chelsea perhaps, but I'd be dubious at such a reverse.

 

Ours is a team that has shown incredible form in the last four matches, shipping no goals, scoring 6 and gaining 10 points, holding Arsenal to a draw away and beating United at Old Trafford in the process. We have just signed a proven goal-scorer and yet we are going to sink like a stone. Does current form not register in their tiny little brains?

 

Whereas nothing can be ruled out or in where football matches are concerned, one has to question either the intelligence or the football knowledge of the moron who wrote that particular article.

[Dalek2003]

I think we are getting ahead of ourselves. Let's concentrate on winning a few more matches first. Anyway, Europa League qualification is a poisoned chalice that we could do without.

[Saint IQ]

According to this article featured in the Express, according to Football Manager, we will end the season in 13th position

 

http://www.express.co.uk/pictures/galleries/4605/Football-Manager-predicts-Premier-League-tabel-sportgalleries

 

These morons reckon that despite being in 7th position after 24 matches, we will drop 6 places in the remaining 14 games. We will only win another 3 games, draw another 2 and lose 9! Our goal difference will go from +8 to -1. We will drop from an average 1.42 goals a match, to .78 goals a match in the remaining 14 games for some reason.

 

Watford, Stoke, Palace, Liverpool, Everton and Chelsea, who are all below us at the moment, will leapfrog us. Liverpool maybe, Chelsea perhaps, but I'd be dubious at such a reverse.

 

Ours is a team that has shown incredible form in the last four matches, shipping no goals, scoring 6 and gaining 10 points, holding Arsenal to a draw away and beating United at Old Trafford in the process. We have just signed a proven goal-scorer and yet we are going to sink like a stone. Does current form not register in their tiny little brains?

 

Whereas nothing can be ruled out or in where football matches are concerned, one has to question either the intelligence or the football knowledge of the moron who wrote that particular article.

 

Comes to Chelsea in 6th, Chelsea: A meteoric rise for Guus Hiddink’s men sees them drop points just once in the last 15 games of the season, to Norwich of all teams. Ahead of Liverpool on goal difference and John Terry ends his career on a high

 

Well they've already dropped 2 to Watford with 14 games left

 

Maybe it was a Chelsea fan who kept pressing the simulator till he realised 6th is the highest possible position they can finish and thats after winning 14/15 games.....

Edited 4 February, 2016 by Saint IQ

[Saint IQ]

I think we are getting ahead of ourselves. Let's concentrate on winning a few more matches first. Anyway, Europa League qualification is a poisoned chalice that we could do without.

 

What's the point in bothering at all then? Might as well hope for a relegation battle every season to makes things interesting.

[angelman]

Well, according to this: http://www.express.co.uk/pictures/galleries/4605/Football-Manager-predicts-Premier-League-tabel-sportgalleries/Football-Manager-2016-predicts-the-Premier-League-table-103280 we aren't going to be anywhere near Europa League, but finish 13th on 45 points. Only another 11 to get from 14 games (or when it was written, that would have been 12 from 15, although I suspect that they didn't expect us to get a point at Arsenal). Liverpool on the other hand need to get 32 more points from their remaining 14, which is just about double what they have so far got from their 24 games so far.

 

[mrfahaji]

I find these Football Manager articles a bit weird to be honest, as much as the game is a realistic simulation, there's still so many real life conditions it can't possibly factor in, not to mention that the rating of a player's attributes is purely subjective!

 

During the transfer window, I didn't have a huge problem with the BBC getting some insight from the Football Manager expert (who is a Saints fan, I think someone posted a blog of his on here recently, which left much to be desired...), but when he starts saying things like "in my game, he has an average rating of 6.73", you have to wonder what the point/relevance is...

[Redslo]

What happens if the team finishing 5th wins the FA Cup?

 

They qualify for the Group stage of the Europa League as does the team finishing sixth. The winner of the league cup or the seventh place club(if the winner of the league cup has already qualified or Europe) enters in the qualifying rounds just like we did this season.

 

Just for amusement, factor in Liverpool or Spurs winning the Europa League. That would give them a Champions League place.

 

Would there then be an extra CL place for England? In any case, if say Liverpool finish 5th and win Europa, that must free up a Europa place.

 

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yes to the question--unless an English Club that did not qualify for the Champions League wins the Champions League (i.e. Chelsea). And I do think it would not take away one of Englands three Europa League spots.

Edited 4 February, 2016 by Redslo

[Redslo]

I find these Football Manager articles a bit weird to be honest, as much as the game is a realistic simulation, there's still so many real life conditions it can't possibly factor in, not to mention that the rating of a player's attributes is purely subjective!

 

During the transfer window, I didn't have a huge problem with the BBC getting some insight from the Football Manager expert (who is a Saints fan, I think someone posted a blog of his on here recently, which left much to be desired...), but when he starts saying things like "in my game, he has an average rating of 6.73", you have to wonder what the point/relevance is...

 

Also, FM tends to overrate the quality of players from big clubs and underrate the quality of players from not so big clubs. Quite simply, you could probably play this season out 1,000,000 times and never have Leicester do as well as it has so far. You might get a season or two in the million where Chelsea does this badly, but it would probably be due to massive bad luck with injuries, not poor play. When Southampton buys a player from a lesser league, FM assumes the player will not be very good.

 

For example, when we bought Wanyama they rated him as a 146 current ability (CA) 160 potential ability (PA). That was actually pretty good for one of our purchases. That same year they rated Fonte a 130 CA and PA which made him not a very good Premier League defender. (Now they rate him a 144 for each which is significantly better.)

 

This year they rated Clasie a 140 CA/149 PA. They rated Depay a 150 CA/172 PA which is basically a very good player who is capable of being world class. Why? Because he was bought by Man U. If they had bought Clasie and we have bought Depay the ratings would have been different. A year earlier Clasie was a 140 CA/ 155 PA so his potential dropped just because we bought him. A year earlier Depay was a 147 CA/ -9 PA. (Negative numbers refer to an variable undefined potential. -9 is the second best possible.) His current ability improved when Man U bought him and he got a pretty good die roll on his potential.

 

Schneiderlin went from a 145 CA/153 PA to a 155 CA/160 PA because Manchester United bought them.

 

Clyne went from a 137 CA/150 PA to a 148 CA/156 PA because Liverpool bought him.

 

Football Manager information can be used to analyze some things, but it is not at all suitable for playing out the second half of a season to make predictions following the real first half of the season. You would probably get a better result simply assuming that things will end up where they are now.

[The9]

I thought it was always the case? At least ever since I can remember.

 

The Europa League winners have never qualified for the CL before this season.

[The9]

Also, FM tends to overrate the quality of players from big clubs and underrate the quality of players from not so big clubs. Quite simply, you could probably play this season out 1,000,000 times and never have Leicester do as well as it has so far. You might get a season or two in the million where Chelsea does this badly, but it would probably be due to massive bad luck with injuries, not poor play. When Southampton buys a player from a lesser league, FM assumes the player will not be very good.

 

For example, when we bought Wanyama they rated him as a 146 current ability (CA) 160 potential ability (PA). That was actually pretty good for one of our purchases. That same year they rated Fonte a 130 CA and PA which made him not a very good Premier League defender. (Now they rate him a 144 for each which is significantly better.)

 

This year they rated Clasie a 140 CA/149 PA. They rated Depay a 150 CA/172 PA which is basically a very good player who is capable of being world class. Why? Because he was bought by Man U. If they had bought Clasie and we have bought Depay the ratings would have been different. A year earlier Clasie was a 140 CA/ 155 PA so his potential dropped just because we bought him. A year earlier Depay was a 147 CA/ -9 PA. (Negative numbers refer to an variable undefined potential. -9 is the second best possible.) His current ability improved when Man U bought him and he got a pretty good die roll on his potential.

 

Schneiderlin went from a 145 CA/153 PA to a 155 CA/160 PA because Manchester United bought them.

 

Clyne went from a 137 CA/150 PA to a 148 CA/156 PA because Liverpool bought him.

 

Football Manager information can be used to analyze some things, but it is not at all suitable for playing out the second half of a season to make predictions following the real first half of the season. You would probably get a better result simply assuming that things will end up where they are now.

 

MLG does the Saints FM stats, that's all you need to know.

[The9]

What happens if the team finishing 5th wins the FA Cup?

 

Depends on who wins the League Cup and where they'd finished in the League.

 

FA Cup winners who qualify as FA Cup winners go into the EL Group stages, lowest ranked League qualifiers go into the EL 3rd QR.

 

I'm sure it's in the examples in the appendices of that Spanish UEFA document I linked in the Euro thread last season.

Edited 4 February, 2016 by The9

[Matthew Le God]

Also, FM tends to overrate the quality of players from big clubs and underrate the quality of players from not so big clubs. Quite simply, you could probably play this season out 1,000,000 times and never have Leicester do as well as it has so far. You might get a season or two in the million where Chelsea does this badly, but it would probably be due to massive bad luck with injuries, not poor play. When Southampton buys a player from a lesser league, FM assumes the player will not be very good.

 

For example, when we bought Wanyama they rated him as a 146 current ability (CA) 160 potential ability (PA). That was actually pretty good for one of our purchases. That same year they rated Fonte a 130 CA and PA which made him not a very good Premier League defender. (Now they rate him a 144 for each which is significantly better.)

 

This year they rated Clasie a 140 CA/149 PA. They rated Depay a 150 CA/172 PA which is basically a very good player who is capable of being world class. Why? Because he was bought by Man U. If they had bought Clasie and we have bought Depay the ratings would have been different. A year earlier Clasie was a 140 CA/ 155 PA so his potential dropped just because we bought him. A year earlier Depay was a 147 CA/ -9 PA. (Negative numbers refer to an variable undefined potential. -9 is the second best possible.) His current ability improved when Man U bought him and he got a pretty good die roll on his potential.

 

Schneiderlin went from a 145 CA/153 PA to a 155 CA/160 PA because Manchester United bought them.

 

Clyne went from a 137 CA/150 PA to a 148 CA/156 PA because Liverpool bought him.

 

Football Manager information can be used to analyze some things, but it is not at all suitable for playing out the second half of a season to make predictions following the real first half of the season. You would probably get a better result simply assuming that things will end up where they are now.

 

Quite a lot of things in that simply aren't true. I've only got 3 posts per day and can't be bothered to go into all of them now.

 

Take Clyne and Schneiderlin for example, their ratings improved not because Man Utd and Liverpool signed them, but because they were reevaluated at the end of the 2013/14 season. Their ratings were done by me, long before they left.

 

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how the research process works.

[Redslo]

Quite a lot of things in that simply aren't true. I've only got 3 posts per day and can't be bothered to go into all of them now.

 

Take Clyne and Schneiderlin for example, their ratings improved not because Man Utd and Liverpool signed them, but because they were reevaluated at the end of the 2013/14 season. Their ratings were done by me, long before they left.

 

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how the research process works.

 

I just spent 15 minutes typing a thoughtful response with sensible questions and comments and was about to post when my cat figured out how to turn off the power strip. This is alarming for many obvious reasons.

 

I am not going to redo the whole post. I will acknowledge that you know a lot more about how the FM research post works. The primary point I was trying to make is that FM is not designed to accurately forecast the second half a season. It has no way of adjust for sudden significant changes in player's ability level other than by increases in skills of young players with predetermined high ability caps. These changes would not be available to the game simulating the second half of the season. This is not a flaw in the game. It is a flaw in the way it was used in the article.

 

That being said, I do think there is an element of circular reasoning big club bias. Players for big clubs are rated higher because they are expensive big club players so they must be good. Also, I assume that FM management imposes some kind of limits on researchers. If you, for example, had accurately rated Southampton players for FM 2014 such that they would come in 8th and underachieve (by goal difference) while doing that I am pretty sure your ratings would not have been accepted. Again this is not really a flaw. If there was not some limit every team's researcher would generate excessively high ratings in the honest belief that their club was going to have a great year. Most of the time they would be wrong and the game would be a farce.

 

The cats require attention.

[buctootim]

The cats require attention.

 

[Wes Tender]

Whatever the methodology of how the forecast is arrived at, it must be flawed if it believes the sort of outcome that it arrives at with a few of the teams, Saints being a prime example. If it were based on our position a few week back, then they might have a point.

[angelman]

Whatever the methodology of how the forecast is arrived at, it must be flawed if it believes the sort of outcome that it arrives at with a few of the teams, Saints being a prime example. If it were based on our position a few week back, then they might have a point.

 

I think it was based after 23 games, as it states Chelsea have 15 to do. It seems to be based on the inherent bias (which I guess is understandable) towards the bigger teams. Having said that, after 23 games, they thought WHU would gain another 19 from the 15 remaining, as opposed to our 12.

 

Time will tell - it will be interesting to see how it ends up. In case they remove the link etc...

 

1 ManC - 80

2 Arse - 79

3 Leic - 69

4 Spurs - 67

5 ManU - 66

6 Chels - 66

7 Liver - 66

8 Ever - 57

9 WHU - 55

10 Palace - 50

11 Stoke - 49

12 Watf - 46

13 Saints - 45

14 WBA - 45

15 Swan - 42

16 Newc - 41

17 Norw - 36

18 B'mouth - 31

19 Sund - 31

20 Villa - 24

 

Interesting that they think that Arsenal, who are 5 points behind, are going to finish 10 points ahead of Leicester. To make up more than 1 point a game is pretty tough. In fact I look at things and think it a complete load of rubbish.

[The9]

Usually around this time of year we get a few kinds of "end of season forecasts".

 

There are the ones done by the work experience using an online results/table generator (usually from the BBC, who sensibly don't tell us what THEIR work experience has come up with using it). This is clearly one of those, and done by someone from Portsmouth who hasn't even looked at the league table since either the 10th week of 2012/13 season or this time last year judging by the outcomes.

 

There are ones done by extrapolating results so far, which as you would imagine basically just gives the existing positions in the table but with more points. They're probably more accurate, but don't take into consideration the imbalances in the fixture list which even themselves out over the next few months - e.g. Leicester have Man City and Arsenal away in the next two games, which will give us a much better indication of where they're likely to finish than a table in which most of the other sides have played at least one of those teams more often than Leicester have.

 

Then there are the ones which use algorithms based on previous performance, balanced against current and likely performance, and a whole host of subjective weightings. They're usually the best, but as there's no tried and trusted method of getting this right and the methodology is usually too complicated to discuss, there's not a lot of benefit to those either without the assumptions, which are rarely shared.

 

In short, get to the BBC calculator when it pitches up and have a go yourself, and get loads of others to do so, at least you have a chance with the wisdom of crowds (as long as you don't have too many Man U and Arsenal fans, which is the problem with everything else footballing and crowdsourced). Even then... Leicester and Chelsea?

[Wes Tender]

I think it was based after 23 games, as it states Chelsea have 15 to do. It seems to be based on the inherent bias (which I guess is understandable) towards the bigger teams. Having said that, after 23 games, they thought WHU would gain another 19 from the 15 remaining, as opposed to our 12.

 

Time will tell - it will be interesting to see how it ends up. In case they remove the link etc...

 

1 ManC - 80

2 Arse - 79

3 Leic - 69

4 Spurs - 67

5 ManU - 66

6 Chels - 66

7 Liver - 66

8 Ever - 57

9 WHU - 55

10 Palace - 50

11 Stoke - 49

12 Watf - 46

13 Saints - 45

14 WBA - 45

15 Swan - 42

16 Newc - 41

17 Norw - 36

18 B'mouth - 31

19 Sund - 31

20 Villa - 24

 

Interesting that they think that Arsenal, who are 5 points behind, are going to finish 10 points ahead of Leicester. To make up more than 1 point a game is pretty tough. In fact I look at things and think it a complete load of rubbish.

 

Bias towards the bigger teams like Palace, Stoke, Watford who are all below us currently and will leapfrog us before the end of the season. Ultimately, crap like this doesn't mean a thing. It has about the same credence as the paper's horoscope page, which has a similar level of guesswork dressed-up as being backed-up with research. As you say, it will be interesting to revisit this at the end of the season.

[angelman]

Fair point Wes. Interesting to see points now and how many more needed to reach the prediction.

 

1 ManC - 80 = +33

2 Arse - 79 = +34

3 Leic - 69 = +19

4 Spurs - 67 = +22

5 ManU - 66 = +26

6 Chels - 66 = +37

7 Liver - 66 = +32

8 Ever - 57 = +25

9 WHU - 55 = +16

10 Palace - 50 = +19

11 Stoke - 49 = +16

12 Watf - 46 = +13

13 Saints - 45 = +11

14 WBA - 45 = +16

15 Swan - 42 = +16

16 Newc - 41 = +20

17 Norw - 36 = +13

18 B'mouth - 31 = +3

19 Sund - 31 = +12

20 Villa - 24 = +11

 

One might think that it was written by someone with a grudge against the South Coast. As mentioned I think it was written before the last round, so Bournemouth would have been expected to only get 6 more points, which they now have half of. Looks to me to be a complete loaf of rubbish.

[sotonist]

Also, FM tends to overrate the quality of players from big clubs and underrate the quality of players from not so big clubs. Quite simply, you could probably play this season out 1,000,000 times and never have Leicester do as well as it has so far. You might get a season or two in the million where Chelsea does this badly, but it would probably be due to massive bad luck with injuries, not poor play. When Southampton buys a player from a lesser league, FM assumes the player will not be very good.

 

For example, when we bought Wanyama they rated him as a 146 current ability (CA) 160 potential ability (PA). That was actually pretty good for one of our purchases. That same year they rated Fonte a 130 CA and PA which made him not a very good Premier League defender. (Now they rate him a 144 for each which is significantly better.)

 

This year they rated Clasie a 140 CA/149 PA. They rated Depay a 150 CA/172 PA which is basically a very good player who is capable of being world class. Why? Because he was bought by Man U. If they had bought Clasie and we have bought Depay the ratings would have been different. A year earlier Clasie was a 140 CA/ 155 PA so his potential dropped just because we bought him. A year earlier Depay was a 147 CA/ -9 PA. (Negative numbers refer to an variable undefined potential. -9 is the second best possible.) His current ability improved when Man U bought him and he got a pretty good die roll on his potential.

 

Schneiderlin went from a 145 CA/153 PA to a 155 CA/160 PA because Manchester United bought them.

 

Clyne went from a 137 CA/150 PA to a 148 CA/156 PA because Liverpool bought him.

 

Football Manager information can be used to analyze some things, but it is not at all suitable for playing out the second half of a season to make predictions following the real first half of the season. You would probably get a better result simply assuming that things will end up where they are now.

devil's advocate... i fthey think he trod water and remained CA140 then he is a year older and they may have assessed that his early potential was overestimated or squandered.

[richardc]

saints results seem to run in clear patterns ie either dog poo or brilliant - in November we were top of the form table - then in Dec we were dog poo and couldnt win (except Arse) and then in Jan we were great - last season it was similar but the runs lasted longer.

If we have another Dec run we could easily end up in 14 however if we continue our current run I think we could pip 5th

Over to you Ronald et al

[benjii]

Fair point Wes. Interesting to see points now and how many more needed to reach the prediction.

 

1 ManC - 80 = +33

2 Arse - 79 = +34

3 Leic - 69 = +19

4 Spurs - 67 = +22

5 ManU - 66 = +26

6 Chels - 66 = +37

7 Liver - 66 = +32

8 Ever - 57 = +25

9 WHU - 55 = +16

10 Palace - 50 = +19

11 Stoke - 49 = +16

12 Watf - 46 = +13

13 Saints - 45 = +11

14 WBA - 45 = +16

15 Swan - 42 = +16

16 Newc - 41 = +20

17 Norw - 36 = +13

18 B'mouth - 31 = +3

19 Sund - 31 = +12

20 Villa - 24 = +11

 

One might think that it was written by someone with a grudge against the South Coast. As mentioned I think it was written before the last round, so Bournemouth would have been expected to only get 6 more points, which they now have half of. Looks to me to be a complete loaf of rubbish.

 

That's a good way of showing it up to be rubbish.

 

It predicts that Liverpool will do SIGNIFICANTLY better than Leicester and Spurs in the remaining matches. That is palpable nonsense.

 

It thinks Bournemouth will get only 3 more points, whilst Villa will get 11. Mental.

 

Even more mental, it thinks Villa will perform at the same level as Saints in the remaining games. In fact, Bournemouth are the only team that it thinks will do worse than us.

 

As others have said, no system is perfect, but whatever was used to generate this will obviously be shown to be wildly deficient.

[The9]

whatever was used to generate this will obviously be shown to be wildly deficient.

 

Presumably by judging the quality of tea it makes.

[JxgrSaint]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1920[/ATTACH]

Mine's always sat on my laptop

[Dark Munster]

Isn't it this:

 

1) 5th qualifies for Europa.

 

2) If one of the top 5 wins the League Cup then 6th will qualify for Europa.

 

3) If one of the top 5, or top 6 if item two happens, win the FA Cup then 7th will qualify for the Europa.

 

You would have to think there is a pretty good chance of 2) happening given City have to beat Liverpool in the final and City will certainly finish in the top 5.

 

You would also have to think there is a pretty good chance of item 3 happening although Chelsea's league position counts against that as, on their day, they are still one of the top two teams. Hopefully City can knock them out in the next round. Obviously there are outliers but, in the last 10 years, Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City have won the FA Cup 7 times. Liverpool won it in 05/06 and they finished third in the league then. When the Skates won it they finished 8th which is a relative outlier. Wigan won it the other time, which was a genuine exception.

 

So, in summary, I reckon 6th is very likely to get a team into Europa and 7th is also pretty likely.

 

We should be targeting 6th place now - this Saturday's match is a real big one for the club. West Ham have Norwich then Sunderland after this weekend so you would think anything other than a win will make it very hard for us to finish higher than we are now. Having said that, another injury to Payet and they become a very ordinary side again.

Isn't this simpler: If we finish 7th, and both the League Cup and FA Cup are won by teams in the top 6 (doesn't matter who), we qualify for Europa.

 

And if Liverpool win this year's Europa League and finish 5-7, along with the FA Cup and league Cup being won by teams in the top 7, wouldn't 8th qualify for Europa? The PL would get 5 CL spots and 3 Europa spots I think (unless the 3 Europa spots get reduced to 2).