The crossroads of 2016

[benjii]

I think the hope for next season is that Classie, Van Dijk, Cedric, Romeu to some extent and Juanmi are markedly improved for their experience this year.

 

A bit like a lot of our players who played PL for the first time when we got promoted. Lallana was not particularly good in that first season but came on hugely after that.

 

We still have the nucleus of a very decent team but next summer probably won't be the time to gamble again - we should add one or two "battle-ready" players and no filler.

[CLOTH EARS]

In addition to my previous post, i Just want to expand regarding the playing side, Aside from the big decisions that need to be taken by the club at boardroom level. RK knows that big decisions need to be taken soon regarding the playing side. The team needs quality reinforcements asap, IF we are genuinely wanting to be challengers for the top 6. When you look at our squad, we undoubtedly have a number of quality players there but not enough of the depth in quality that is needed to challenge for a top 6 finish. In truth our league position is about right for the players that we have IMO. We have allowed the quality levels in our squad to drop over the last couple of transfer windows. We have made signings to replace those that have left, but those coming in have yet to prove that they are adequate replacements with the exception of Van Djyk i would say. A few of those signings may turn out to be decent in the longer term but atm they are not consistent enough. We have accrued a number of players like that. We need to think about what we are going to do with the likes of Yoshida, Caulker and Martina, none of these are anywhere near good enough and re-Martina don't be fooled by the Arsenal game! We need to make more signings and they need to be GOOD signings, they need to be able to step straight into the side and do a DECENT job. If we allow Wanyama and Mane to leave then the scales tip towards us having a squad that's suitable for a side in the bottom half. I know both of those players have been inconsistent themselves recently but they are decent and with added quality around them they will do what we know they can do. On the horizon looming we also have to think about replacing the likes of Steve Davis (who has been excellent for us IMO) He is now 31 and i have heard a number of fans say that perhaps he is past his best. Obviously there seems to be question marks regarding Pelle and whether he is wanting a move back to Italy. If this is not being at a crossroads then i don't know what is.

[Cosmic]

Out: Stek, Kelv, Caulker, Wanyama, Ramirez, Pelle

In: Experienced & cheap back-up keeper, right back (depends on how the club views Soares' future), Wanyama replacement, wide player (hopefully two), and a striker (also dependent on Rodriguez).

 

GK: Forster, Gazza, NEW

RB: NEW, Soares

LB: Bertrand, Targett

CB: Fonte, VVD, Yoshida, Gardos

DM: NEW, Romeu, Reed

CM: Clasie, Davis

RW: NEW, JWP

LW: Tadic, NEW

AM: Mane, Juanmi

ST: Rodriguez, Long, NEW

[Goatboy]

In addition to my previous post, i Just want to expand regarding the playing side, Aside from the big decisions that need to be taken by the club at boardroom level. RK knows that big decisions need to be taken soon regarding the playing side. The team needs quality reinforcements asap, IF we are genuinely wanting to be challengers for the top 6. When you look at our squad, we undoubtedly have a number of quality players there but not enough of the depth in quality that is needed to challenge for a top 6 finish. In truth our league position is about right for the players that we have IMO. We have allowed the quality levels in our squad to drop over the last couple of transfer windows. We have made signings to replace those that have left, but those coming in have yet to prove that they are adequate replacements with the exception of Van Djyk i would say. A few of those signings may turn out to be decent in the longer term but atm they are not consistent enough. We have accrued a number of players like that. We need to think about what we are going to do with the likes of Yoshida, Caulker and Martina, none of these are anywhere near good enough and re-Martina don't be fooled by the Arsenal game! We need to make more signings and they need to be GOOD signings, they need to be able to step straight into the side and do a DECENT job. If we allow Wanyama and Mane to leave then the scales tip towards us having a squad that's suitable for a side in the bottom half. I know both of those players have been inconsistent themselves recently but they are decent and with added quality around them they will do what we know they can do. On the horizon looming we also have to think about replacing the likes of Steve Davis (who has been excellent for us IMO) He is now 31 and i have heard a number of fans say that perhaps he is past his best. Obviously there seems to be question marks regarding Pelle and whether he is wanting a move back to Italy. If this is not being at a crossroads then i don't know what is.

 

I concur with most of this paragraph free post.. CLOTH EARS speak much sense.

I yearn for heart though CE.

[CB Fry]

I don't think we are at a crossroads at all, we are doing very nicely - last season was probably the best we can achieve bar winning a cup. We are always going to lose players to clubs like Liverpool and Spurs, that's just where we are in the food chain.

 

We are nothing like the club that Saints was in 2004.

Exactly this.

 

There are people on this forum who like to talk about us being at a cross roads but we're really not.

 

It's very very clear what our strategy is, we'll stick to it as long as the Leibherrs (and specifically Les) are in charge.

 

Yep, we want to try and be "best of the rest" if we can, to achieve European football through the league but completely on our terms and completely within our budget.

 

So if that takes us to the cusp of the top 6 one season, great. If it takes us to a more middling 12th place another season, not great. That's football.

 

Neither the first scenario or the second scenario is going to see us break the fundemental strategy - fees, wages, financial structure will remain the same in both situations. Sometimes we will hit heights, sometimes we won't.

 

It's rather strange that Les Reed says pretty much the same thing over and over and over again in all his interviews but people on this forum still don't get it.

 

We hadn't finished seventh for 25 years until last season but you wouldn't think it reading the dins on here who've decided last season is now the base standard for all subsequent seasons to be judged, with any drop in league position from our rightful seventh some kind of outrage. Boo hoo. We've regressed. To twelfth. In the Premier League.

 

Brace yourself girls, Saints might finish, gosh, twelfth or so in 2016. Oh, the humanity. I wish we were Watford. I wish we were Watford.

[DuncanRG]

We're at the same crossroads we have been perpetually facing for the past five years - can we build on our success or not? Could we get to the Championship, get out of the Championship, stay in the Premier League, break into the top half, break into Europe?

 

The answer has always been yes. That bears repeating, not because it's likely to happen again but because it shows that, especially when done over a sustained period, the people at the top of the club know what they're doing. Fans have said the same things about them for years and have largely been wrong.

 

The big strategic decisions come this summer, when the new TV money is about to drop. I'm sure the top brass are preparing and giving the team's short-term form the credence it commands. I'm equally sure Koeman's comments about ambition are part of the long negotiation over a possible contract extension - and should be taken as that. He'll have expressed many other thoughts in private, positive and negative. Honest as he seems in the press he doesn't say things for no reason.

 

As for the importance of the January transfer window - nothing compares to good physical and mental coaching, which will be needed to turn around this form whether we sign no players or five.

Edited 2 January, 2016 by DuncanRG

[shurlock]

Exactly this.

 

There are people on this forum who like to talk about us being at a cross roads but we're really not.

 

It's very very clear what our strategy is, we'll stick to it as long as the Leibherrs (and specifically Les) are in charge.

 

Yep, we want to try and be "best of the rest" if we can, to achieve European football through the league but completely on our terms and completely within our budget.

 

So if that takes us to the cusp of the top 6 one season, great. If it takes us to a more middling 12th place another season, not great. That's football.

 

Neither the first scenario or the second scenario is going to see us break the fundemental strategy - fees, wages, financial structure will remain the same in both situations. Sometimes we will hit heights, sometimes we won't.

 

It's rather strange that Les Reed says pretty much the same thing over and over and over again in all his interviews but people on this forum still don't get it.

 

We hadn't finished seventh for 25 years until last season but you wouldn't think it reading the dins on here who've decided last season is now the base standard for all subsequent seasons to be judged, with any drop in league position from our rightful seventh some kind of outrage. Boo hoo. We've regressed. To twelfth. In the Premier League.

 

Brace yourself girls, Saints might finish, gosh, twelfth or so in 2016. Oh, the humanity. I wish we were Watford. I wish we were Watford.

 

So we’ll finish where we finish –and if we finish 6th -or hell why not, win the league, durrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, that’s great. Circle of life platitudes meet Tony the Tiger – you’re breaking fresh ground this year already, CB.

 

Needless to say, your post lurks with dubious assumptions, not least the idea that outside the top six, the league is effectively a random game of musical chairs, with the only regularity that teams that do well one season are just as likely to fall down the table into 12-14th place the next. Am pretty sure the club thinks there’s more to footballing life than this. Our two top 7/8 finishes, for instance, were secured with decent breathing space from the rest of chasing pack, even as we limped ungainly over the line both seasons. That’s what meant by best of the rest – regularly (not always) posting 60ish points a season which with stars aligned, permits the occasional crack at the big boys. That cannot be said about current darlings, Watford.

 

Our situation is different from your boys in gold and black in another key respect (or even past lovers Stoke circa the Pullis glory years). We’ve enjoyed a massive cash windfall from player sales to the Top 4– no other club has been in such a fortunate position in recent memory, with perhaps the exception of Villa nearly a decade ago.

 

In itself, that challenges the notion that teams outside the top 6 are seatfillers, guests at somebody else's wedding or prize ceremony, milling around the garish lobby or ballroom, hoping for some cheap plonk or to get lucky. Top clubs don’t buy players willy-nilly from whoever is the flavour of the month; rather they recognise that differences in quality exist and believe that they can be distinguished from luck.

 

The deeper point is that windfall should give us a significant starting advantage over rivals. Invariably, that advantage will be eroded over time, as it is washed out through player churn and others increased spending. But, for now, that advantage is very much real and we continue to live in its glow, both financially and reputationally. As such, the reference to crossroads makes plenty of sense and it is perfectly appropriate to ask how much the club want to capitalise on its position, indeed perhaps more so than in 2003.

Edited 2 January, 2016 by shurlock

[Dalek2003]

Exactly this.

 

There are people on this forum who like to talk about us being at a cross roads but we're really not.

 

It's very very clear what our strategy is, we'll stick to it as long as the Leibherrs (and specifically Les) are in charge.

 

Yep, we want to try and be "best of the rest" if we can, to achieve European football through the league but completely on our terms and completely within our budget.

 

So if that takes us to the cusp of the top 6 one season, great. If it takes us to a more middling 12th place another season, not great. That's football.

 

Neither the first scenario or the second scenario is going to see us break the fundemental strategy - fees, wages, financial structure will remain the same in both situations. Sometimes we will hit heights, sometimes we won't.

 

It's rather strange that Les Reed says pretty much the same thing over and over and over again in all his interviews but people on this forum still don't get it.

 

We hadn't finished seventh for 25 years until last season but you wouldn't think it reading the dins on here who've decided last season is now the base standard for all subsequent seasons to be judged, with any drop in league position from our rightful seventh some kind of outrage. Boo hoo. We've regressed. To twelfth. In the Premier League.

 

Brace yourself girls, Saints might finish, gosh, twelfth or so in 2016. Oh, the humanity. I wish we were Watford. I wish we were Watford.

 

A lot of people changing their tune. I agree with what you are saying, but I will add and have been consistent in saying that the Board are always going to very satisfied as long as we do enough to stay in the premier League. This would include finishing 17th. Of course following a 'mid table' strategy always means we are vulnerable to a poor season and relegation.

[CB Fry]

So we’ll finish where we finish –and if we finish 6th -or hell why not, win the league, durrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, that’s great. Circle of life platitudes meet Tony the Tiger – you’re breaking fresh ground this year already, CB.

 

Needless to say, your post lurks with dubious assumptions, not least the idea that outside the top six, the league is effectively a random game of musical chairs, with the only regularity that teams that do well one season are just as likely to fall down the table into 12-14th place the next. Am pretty sure the club thinks there’s more to footballing life than this. Our two top 7/8 finishes, for instance, were secured with decent breathing space from the rest of chasing pack, even as we limped ungainly over the line both seasons. That’s what meant by best of the rest – regularly (not always) posting 60ish points a season which with stars aligned, permits the occasional crack at the big boys. That cannot be said about current darlings, Watford.

 

Our situation is different from your boys in gold and black in another key respect (or even past lovers Stoke circa the Pullis glory years). We’ve enjoyed a massive cash windfall from player sales to the Top 4– no other club has been in such a fortunate position in recent memory, with perhaps the exception of Villa nearly a decade ago.

 

In itself, that challenges the notion that teams outside the top 6 are seatfillers, guests at somebody else's wedding or prize ceremony, milling around the garish lobby or ballroom, hoping for some cheap plonk or to get lucky. Top clubs don’t buy players willy-nilly from whoever is the flavour of the month; rather they recognise that differences in quality exist and believe that they can be distinguished from luck.

 

The deeper point is that windfall should give us a significant starting advantage over rivals. Invariably, that advantage will be eroded over time, as it is washed out through player churn and others increased spending. But, for now, that advantage is very much real and we continue to live in its glow, both financially and reputationally. As such, the reference to crossroads makes plenty of sense and it is perfectly appropriate to ask how much the club want to capitalise on its position, indeed perhaps more so than in 2003.

 

Where did I say it's random? Of course it isn't, our performance has been decided by choices we have made in recruitment, team selection, tactics and, to a lesser extent, retention.

 

I didn't just shrug when we ballsed up our European campaign, it was a fu ck up of our own making.

 

But there is no crossroads, except there always is a crossroads. If we'd finished fifth, twelfth, eighth, seventh, tenth, fourteenth last season, the same sh it would be coming out now - invest/push on/does she want to sell up/show ambition/waah waah look at X club why cant we be them/capitalise on our position/etc/etc. The usual grab-bag of obviousness but yeah, it's me with the platitudes, right?

 

There's plenty of clubs that have finished top eight only to drop down alarmingly subsequently - from Villa and WBA to Boro, Blackburn and Fulham. There hasn't been any club, whatsoever, of our size that have consistently remained ahead of the chasing pack for any longer than three seasons, with most managing one or two. (The only one I can think of on three is Villa, where on season 3 of being sixth attendances went down as fans git bored and the fanbase started moaning about investing to push on. Or "capitalising on their position" or something.)

 

So thanks for your in-no-way platitude heavy "if we capitalised we could have done better" insight. I have no doubt the management of the club are jotting it down right now.

[austsaint]

Where did I say it's random? Of course it isn't, our performance has been decided by choices we have made in recruitment, team selection, tactics and, to a lesser extent, retention.

 

I didn't just shrug when we ballsed up our European campaign, it was a fu ck up of our own making.

 

But there is no crossroads, except there always is a crossroads. If we'd finished fifth, twelfth, eighth, seventh, tenth, fourteenth last season, the same sh it would be coming out now - invest/push on/does she want to sell up/show ambition/waah waah look at X club why cant we be them/capitalise on our position/etc/etc. The usual grab-bag of obviousness but yeah, it's me with the platitudes, right?

 

There's plenty of clubs that have finished top eight only to drop down alarmingly subsequently - from Villa and WBA to Boro, Blackburn and Fulham. There hasn't been any club, whatsoever, of our size that have consistently remained ahead of the chasing pack for any longer than three seasons, with most managing one or two. (The only one I can think of on three is Villa, where on season 3 of being sixth attendances went down as fans git bored and the fanbase started moaning about investing to push on. Or "capitalising on their position" or something.)

 

So thanks for your in-no-way platitude heavy "if we capitalised we could have done better" insight. I have no doubt the management of the club are jotting it down right now.

 

Never mind the platitudes, you've got Dalek in your corner, you'll be allright.

[Blue Adder]

Read through this thread with interest and don't really agree with the crossroads idea. Seems to me Saints have a fairly good squad that should maintain a mid table position without too much difficulty. I think you can continue much as you are and have league finishes plus or minus 3 or 4 positions on half way, with maybe a cup win now and again.

It seems to me that geographical position is a major factor in being top six regulars, you need to be major city clubs in London, Manchester and the like. Young men with loads of money have other interests than football, and clubs like Leicester, Newcastle, Southampton, do not have the pulling power of London, Madrid, Rome, Paris, regardless of participation in the Champions League.

Another major factor is the quality of owner, and here Saints are very lucky to have had the involvement of the Liebherr family. I must admit I feared for you when Dad died but Katrina has done a remarkable job thus far. Should she pack it in life would become a bit of a lottery. Blackburn quickly departed the scene when Jack Walker gave it up.

The biggest danger is falling into the hands of bad/crooked owners. My own club are not the only ones nearly destroyed by owners with the wrong motivation. Bolton appear to be the most recent victims. Here's hoping the stewardship at Southampton can avoid such pitfalls for the long term.

Finally the Manager is another big player. I think geography comes into it again with the power of the big city clubs working in their favour. Successful managers bounce around the top clubs and any new talent emerging from below is quickly snapped up, with anyone failing at the top is soon dropped.

My own view of Saints recent managers is that Pardew and Pochetino (?spelling) were the best you have had. Not convinced about Koeman, too reliant on Dutch players and not too astute tactically.

Anyway, just pointing out that there is far more in play than who you sell and buy. There are huge forces working against the 'lesser' clubs and just staying as a Premier League regular is amazing success. I reckon Saints have what it takes to achieve it, and beating yourselves up because you're not challenging for CL is crazy.

[Dalek2003]

Never mind the platitudes, you've got Dalek in your corner, you'll be allright.

 

Which would be the ultimate irony !

[pluto]

If we had say just 4 more points, none of this speculative anti Saints tosh from journo scum would be around.

[shurlock]

Where did I say it's random? Of course it isn't, our performance has been decided by choices we have made in recruitment, team selection, tactics and, to a lesser extent, retention.

 

I didn't just shrug when we ballsed up our European campaign, it was a fu ck up of our own making.

 

But there is no crossroads, except there always is a crossroads. If we'd finished fifth, twelfth, eighth, seventh, tenth, fourteenth last season, the same sh it would be coming out now - invest/push on/does she want to sell up/show ambition/waah waah look at X club why cant we be them/capitalise on our position/etc/etc. The usual grab-bag of obviousness but yeah, it's me with the platitudes, right?

 

There's plenty of clubs that have finished top eight only to drop down alarmingly subsequently - from Villa and WBA to Boro, Blackburn and Fulham. There hasn't been any club, whatsoever, of our size that have consistently remained ahead of the chasing pack for any longer than three seasons, with most managing one or two. (The only one I can think of on three is Villa, where on season 3 of being sixth attendances went down as fans git bored and the fanbase started moaning about investing to push on. Or "capitalising on their position" or something.)

 

So thanks for your in-no-way platitude heavy "if we capitalised we could have done better" insight. I have no doubt the management of the club are jotting it down right now.

 

Already pointed out how our situation might be different from those of WBA, Boro, Blackburn and Fulham. Instead of Watford, insert any of those aforementioned clubs (if it isn't blindingly obvious).

Edited 2 January, 2016 by shurlock

[SW5 SAINT]

I for one set out to support a football club, not a business. I think anyone who owns a football club can presume that most fans will expect them to take it forward, and not be content to tread water to go backwards. The owners are very content to take the money.

[Lallana's Left Peg]

I for one set out to support a football club, not a business. I think anyone who owns a football club can presume that most fans will expect them to take it forward, and not be content to tread water to go backwards. The owners are very content to take the money.

 

The owner isn't taking any money out of the club though, if anything she has further invested into the club. What is fair enough is that she is saying that the club should be financially self-sufficient from now on. I don't think anyone on here can argue against that given the overwhelming generosity her family has shown for the club but at this point for me it is about investing in a good quality of player within our budget which we can easily do this summer (and could have done last summer if we didn't pad it out with average players). If we don't invest properly this summer then I would question our strategy.

Edited 2 January, 2016 by Lallana's Left Peg

[whelk]

The cliched crossroads http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/everton/12078067/Everton-are-at-a-crossroads-and-in-danger-of-being-left-behind.html

[aintforever]

So we’ll finish where we finish –and if we finish 6th -or hell why not, win the league, durrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, that’s great. Circle of life platitudes meet Tony the Tiger – you’re breaking fresh ground this year already, CB.

 

Needless to say, your post lurks with dubious assumptions, not least the idea that outside the top six, the league is effectively a random game of musical chairs, with the only regularity that teams that do well one season are just as likely to fall down the table into 12-14th place the next. Am pretty sure the club thinks there’s more to footballing life than this. Our two top 7/8 finishes, for instance, were secured with decent breathing space from the rest of chasing pack, even as we limped ungainly over the line both seasons. That’s what meant by best of the rest – regularly (not always) posting 60ish points a season which with stars aligned, permits the occasional crack at the big boys. That cannot be said about current darlings, Watford.

 

Our situation is different from your boys in gold and black in another key respect (or even past lovers Stoke circa the Pullis glory years). We’ve enjoyed a massive cash windfall from player sales to the Top 4– no other club has been in such a fortunate position in recent memory, with perhaps the exception of Villa nearly a decade ago.

 

In itself, that challenges the notion that teams outside the top 6 are seatfillers, guests at somebody else's wedding or prize ceremony, milling around the garish lobby or ballroom, hoping for some cheap plonk or to get lucky. Top clubs don’t buy players willy-nilly from whoever is the flavour of the month; rather they recognise that differences in quality exist and believe that they can be distinguished from luck.

 

The deeper point is that windfall should give us a significant starting advantage over rivals. Invariably, that advantage will be eroded over time, as it is washed out through player churn and others increased spending. But, for now, that advantage is very much real and we continue to live in its glow, both financially and reputationally. As such, the reference to crossroads makes plenty of sense and it is perfectly appropriate to ask how much the club want to capitalise on its position, indeed perhaps more so than in 2003.

 

No one is going to rip up the plan and start again just because we finish 12th, it just means a couple of signings were not as good as thought, and our best keeper has been injured. We will carry on as usual, if we get high enough bids for anyone we will sell and replace them with what the club thinks is good prospects. There is no crossroads.

[Lallana's Left Peg]

No one is going to rip up the plan and start again just because we finish 12th, it just means a couple of signings were not as good as thought, and our best keeper has been injured. We will carry on as usual, if we get high enough bids for anyone we will sell and replace them with what the club thinks is good prospects. There is no crossroads.

 

That is the crossroads. With the amount of money we will have this summer that is a strategy that is far too risky and won't allow for a top half finish.

[aintforever]

That is the crossroads. With the amount of money we will have this summer that is a strategy that is far too risky and won't allow for a top half finish.

 

No reason why not, done it before. All you lot wet the bed when Lallana and co were sold.

[badgerx16]

Can I just remind everybody already planning how to spend next season's TV money, there will be 19 other sides banking the same windfall, so in comparative terms we will be no better off.

[Lallana's Left Peg]

Can I just remind everybody already planning how to spend next season's TV money, there will be 19 other sides banking the same windfall, so in comparative terms we will be no better off.

 

We should be able to offer more wages than most under the new rules though. Everyone with a wage bill over £52m can spend £80k a week more (£4m a season) plus any anything from commercial income (we have new shirt manufacturer deals and shirt sponsorship deals that should be worth a lot more if our club are competent in that area). Plus we also wave goodbye to Caulker, Stek and Ramirez - with the first two already having replacements at the club and the latter not needing to be replaced (I reckon they earn £125k a week between them). Very rough estimates but I reckon we'll have near £300k a week we can offer in wages to new players (or existing) within the FFP rules and still be financially stable.

 

No reason why not, done it before. All you lot wet the bed when Lallana and co were sold.

 

Because we haven't done it this season and thus far we're a concerning 5 places worse off. You keep selling your best players and take punts on replacements and you will get worse - it's guaranteed.

[CB Fry]

Already pointed out how our situation might be different from those of WBA, Boro, Blackburn and Fulham. Instead of Watford, insert any of those aforementioned clubs (if it isn't blindingly obvious).

Why is our situation so different from all of those clubs, then? I believed you don't really like it when people say we are particularly unique or special. I don't think we are, we're just like all those other clubs more or less and no more guaranteed to lock in finishing seventh in perpetuity than any of them, just like Palace, Leicester and Watford won't be doing either.

 

Southampton Football Club: really not that unique.

[Blue Adder]

To attract top players takes more than money and CL participation. The big city clubs can match Saints on wages, do offer CL. with the PLUS of a lifestyle not available in Southampton. Newcastle is said to have a wonderful night life but geography rules against them.