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The crossroads of 2016


Daft Kerplunk

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Decent piece on the Echo drawing parallels with where we are and where we were in 2003. Doesn't mention that after we missed the opportunity to develop, we got relegated not long after but let's hope that is one similarity too far and we actually avoid it by building seriously now and becoming less of a 'showcase' club and more of a team with players who want to be here for the long term.

 

http://m.dailyecho.co.uk/sport/14172280.COMMENT__Are_Saints_at_a_crossroads_/?ref=mr&lp=4

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There isn't much we can do when the rules handicap us in terms of wages we are allowed to pay and other clubs can offer far more and players want to leave.

 

However, I think we can be more ambitious in the transfer market in replacing them. It only takes a few bad summers and you're in a relegation fight.

 

I have always said this. People were very complacent in the Spring of 2004. The club then appointed a manager out of his depth and the slide began. I am afraid that we are already in a 'slide'. The only thing that leaves me in doubt was the great result against Arsenal. Other than that, things look ominous. Lose to Norwich and we are in the thick of it. If we fail to strengthen in the January transfer market we may well go down.

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I have always said this. People were very complacent in the Spring of 2004. The club then appointed a manager out of his depth and the slide began. I am afraid that we are already in a 'slide'. The only thing that leaves me in doubt was the great result against Arsenal. Other than that, things look ominous. Lose to Norwich and we are in the thick of it. If we fail to strengthen in the January transfer market we may well go down.

 

It's obviously not as a bad as that but say Mane (inevitable) and Wanyama (sat on a new contract for 6 months now, he isn't signing it) leave in the summer and we 'replace' them in the way we did Morgan and Clyne this summer then we're screwed. However, replace them in the way we did Toby with VvD and we'll be fine. Maybe the board will work it out.

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I don't think it's necessarily about investment but about protecting what we have. We sign players (apparently on lower wages-comparitively-) but don't appear to then, once we know they perform, reward them with new contracts quickly. We should be giving new contracts to those who perform even only 1 year into a contract. Unless we get their wages high enough they will always be a target. Everton hold onto their players as its a massive investment to get them due to their current wages so cheaper options are taken. Perhaps the wages our players get mean that a spurs or Liverpool can give them a heathy pay rise without having to make a sacrifice in their own squad?

Signing players on big wages is always a risk (gaston, dani) but rewarding those already here with big pay rises to keep them, is very little risk and the only way we will change our position or reputation as a feeder club.

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Everything points to us selling our best players and relying on our recruitment to replace them on the cheap. It worked last season. So far this season I'd say it hasn't. You can't keep doing it year after year and expect it to work. It will eventually catch up with you and you end up like Villa.

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why is it inevitable that mane leaves

why does he have to leave?

 

Two years left and heavily rumoured to be wanted by two of the biggest clubs in the world (Man Utd and Bayern Munich). He won't sign a new deal in my opinion (why would he?) and because he plays in a position that attracts a premium price the club are unlikely to allow him to leave with just 1 year left on his deal. Jeremy Wilson suggested Saints will offer him a new deal - what do you think the chances are he will sign it? Or rather, what is his incentive to?

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We still harbour hopes of having 50% of our first team made up on academy lads so maybe this is still an aim for 2016? Or will be aiming to be the showcase club which was the justification for last years approach? Or will be just think "**** it, Ron, here is a bit a cash, go find someone who you can work with on that budget".

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How many players could we afford to pay 'premium' salaries to ? And extending or expanding player contracts is no protection against them being poached by teams with realistic Champions League prospects.

 

This summer it must change. Stek and Caulker off the wage bill (we're already paying their replacements - Forster and Gardos). Ramirez off as well. That's at least £125k a week free'd up I reckon. Plus all the new money in from the new shirt sponsor and shirt manufacturer deals (and any other commercial deal - lets say that's an extra 80k a week) can be spent on wages over and above the extra 80k rules allow (which is easily covered by the new TV deal). By those back of fag packet calculations that is about an additional £300k a week we will have to spend on wages (minus any wage increases built into existing deals for players already at the club). That is before anyone else leaves. Other clubs will have the same scope to increase their wages as well but we should have a little more than most in our 'section' of the league and if the club are serious about pushing on then we can spend that money and it won't jeopardise our financial stability either.

Edited by Lallana's Left Peg
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I agree with the sentiments of the article, it feels similar to 2004 when SFC took the wrong turn and crashed.

 

However I think now is better because SFC has more competent people running the show and potentially could tap into more cash but it does feel that the club needs to decide which way to go.

 

Do the club push on or pull in the wagons? Those dark days cleared the deadwood then slowly a head of steam was built that saw us crashing through the divisions and stayed with us till last season. This effect has now fizzled out as we enter a new era.

 

TBH both the ambitious and conservative camps have good points, the ambitious say that if we don't push on we will fall whilst the conservatives say that if we overreach we'll crash and burn a la Leeds and a bunch of others.

 

Personally I struggle to see how we can really break through the top 6 in a consistent way let alone the top 4, our support just isn't big enough and the big boys have so much financial advantage over us.

 

Maybe a defensive yo-yo approach is the way to go. Build up good young players, sell them on for a fat profit, always put emphasis on youth + a small number of key transfers, prioritise up and coming managers and aim for Europa at least every 2/3 years whilst building up a financial base to take on the big boys and slowly slowly become a bigger force.

 

But then again isn't that what we are trying to do at the moment?

 

More immediately a proven goalscorer is needed but I wouldn't be surprised if the club play the percentage game and don't spend based on the fact that:

 

-Villa look dead and buried

-Sunderland look half dead

-There are other clubs that look more likely to go down that us

 

Risky because we could get sucked in and if we do I'd seriously question our grit and determination to get out but I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't buy.

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I agree with the sentiments of the article, it feels similar to 2004 when SFC took the wrong turn and crashed.

 

However I think now is better because SFC has more competent people running the show and potentially could tap into more cash but it does feel that the club needs to decide which way to go.

 

Do the club push on or pull in the wagons? Those dark days cleared the deadwood then slowly a head of steam was built that saw us crashing through the divisions and stayed with us till last season. This effect has now fizzled out as we enter a new era.

 

TBH both the ambitious and conservative camps have good points, the ambitious say that if we don't push on we will fall whilst the conservatives say that if we overreach we'll crash and burn a la Leeds and a bunch of others.

 

Personally I struggle to see how we can really break through the top 6 in a consistent way let alone the top 4, our support just isn't big enough and the big boys have so much financial advantage over us.

 

Maybe a defensive yo-yo approach is the way to go. Build up good young players, sell them on for a fat profit, always put emphasis on youth + a small number of key transfers, prioritise up and coming managers and aim for Europa at least every 2/3 years whilst building up a financial base to take on the big boys and slowly slowly become a bigger force.

 

But then again isn't that what we are trying to do at the moment?

 

More immediately a proven goalscorer is needed but I wouldn't be surprised if the club play the percentage game and don't spend based on the fact that:

 

-Villa look dead and buried

-Sunderland look half dead

-There are other clubs that look more likely to go down that us

 

Risky because we could get sucked in and if we do I'd seriously question our grit and determination to get out but I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't buy.

 

A very dangerous game to play, if we don't invest. We could just as easily go down as the likes of Norwich, Newcastle, Swansea and Bournemouth, especially if they strengthen in the Jan window.

The game against Norwich, more than any, will show us where we are and what kind of season we will likely to have.

A heavy defeat and I would say we could well go down.

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It all depends if you support the Saints with your heart (spend loads of dosh) or your head (live within your means)

Spending loads of dosh is the preserve of the heart now? Fu ck me, how utterly depressing.

 

Your club historian, everyone.

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Spending loads of dosh is the preserve of the heart now? Fu ck me, how utterly depressing.

 

Your club historian, everyone.

 

The real issue is to spend wisely. Research your product well. If you don't invest then you have to accept the Club is prepares to drop down every now and again and start rebuilding using the Academy and hungry lesser known players from the lower leagues. If you like, the 'yoyo' strategy.

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I have always said this. People were very complacent in the Spring of 2004. The club then appointed a manager out of his depth and the slide began. I am afraid that we are already in a 'slide'. The only thing that leaves me in doubt was the great result against Arsenal. Other than that, things look ominous. Lose to Norwich and we are in the thick of it. If we fail to strengthen in the January transfer market we may well go down.
I know you are a troll, and I really shouldn't engage, but your schtick is so tired.

 

Statistically, we have better odds of qualifying for Europe than being relegated.

 

chances of 4th place finish: 0.8%

chances of 18th, 19th, 20th: 0.3%

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

Statistically speaking, suggesting we finish 4th on here is less outlandish than suggesting we get relegated. (yet you suggest relegation every chance you get where no one is suggesting a 4th place finish)

 

A very dangerous game to play, if we don't invest. We could just as easily go down as the likes of Norwich, Newcastle, Swansea and Bournemouth, especially if they strengthen in the Jan window.
Sure, I would love for us to invest in some quality additions this January, but let's look at our "competitors".

 

likelihood of relegation:

 

Norwich 13.2%

Bournemouth 14.5%

Swansea 21.4%

Newcastle 51.9%

Sunderland 87.5%

Aston Villa 97.6%

 

Southampton 0.3%

 

We'll likely finish between 10th and 12th - where statistically there is a nearly 50% chance of that happening.

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I know you are a troll, and I really shouldn't engage, but your schtick is so tired.

 

Statistically, we have better odds of qualifying for Europe than being relegated.

 

chances of 4th place finish: 0.8%

chances of 18th, 19th, 20th: 0.3%

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

Statistically speaking, suggesting we finish 4th on here is less outlandish than suggesting we get relegated. (yet you suggest relegation every chance you get where no one is suggesting a 4th place finish)

 

Sure, I would love for us to invest in some quality additions this January, but let's look at our "competitors".

 

likelihood of relegation:

 

Norwich 13.2%

Bournemouth 14.5%

Swansea 21.4%

Newcastle 51.9%

Sunderland 87.5%

Aston Villa 97.6%

 

Southampton 0.3%

 

We'll likely finish between 10th and 12th - where statistically there is a nearly 50% chance of that happening.

 

I am glad that you engaged the topic rather than the person, which is more than can be said for some posters.

 

I am genuinely NOT trolling, but expressing my concern. I am clearly not alone in my concern, in fact there are a fair proportion of posters who have contemplated a relegation fight unless we strengthen in this and the summer window.

 

Your statistics offer some comfort, on the face of it. But, and this is the crux of it. Look at our current from compared to the other clubs in the lower third and we cannot afford to be complacent. There always appears to be one team that drops from a relatively comfortable mid table position into a relegation fight. If we lose to Norwich on Saturday, surely the alarm bells should be ringing.

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How many players could we afford to pay 'premium' salaries to ? And extending or expanding player contracts is no protection against them being poached by teams with realistic Champions League prospects.

 

Agreed but how many have left for genuine regular champions league football? Not many?

how many of our ex players who left are so good they are now being chased by the genuine champs league contenders clubs?

We need to stop being a feeder club for those outside the champs league, even Spurs and Liverpool have a cap to their salaries and by expanding those contracts of the top performers will can at least make it difficult to take them. If we don't or can't pay the going rate for wages we will always be a club which is losing their stars each year.

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Mainly because Saints are a selling club . He will be sold and replaced with a cheaper similar player . Bills will be paid and on it goes

 

Sent from my SM-G925I using Tapatalk

 

As we all know, all clubs are selling clubs when the money is right. Unless we find someone who is prepared to bankroll us totally we need to pay our way. I would rather that than we became another Chelsea or Man City.

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Agreed but how many have left for genuine regular champions league football? Not many?

how many of our ex players who left are so good they are now being chased by the genuine champs league contenders clubs?

We need to stop being a feeder club for those outside the champs league, even Spurs and Liverpool have a cap to their salaries and by expanding those contracts of the top performers will can at least make it difficult to take them. If we don't or can't pay the going rate for wages we will always be a club which is losing their stars each year.

 

Which ones didn't leave for Champions League football? I'll let you have Lambert, who would have wanted to go to Liverpool regardless (but were in the CL when he joined), but who else?

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Which ones didn't leave for Champions League football? I'll let you have Lambert, who would have wanted to go to Liverpool regardless (but were in the CL when he joined), but who else?

 

Poch, Clyne, Toby, for three more.

Whilst Liverpool had qualified the season before lallana and Lovren left they have not been champs league regulars for a significant period. They 100 percent aren't champs league certs every season are they?

Chambers, Shaw and Morgan are the only three I'd consider joined champions league clubs.

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It's obviously not as a bad as that but say Mane (inevitable) and Wanyama (sat on a new contract for 6 months now' date=' he isn't signing it) leave in the summer and we 'replace' them in the way we did Morgan and Clyne this summer then we're screwed. [b']However, replace them in the way we did Toby with VvD and we'll be fine.[/b] Maybe the board will work it out.

 

Each to their own of course but I'm personally not sure that's the best example to use, what I've seen of VvD in recent weeks has convinced me he's far from the level Toby is and you could potentially put him in the same bracket as Cedric, Cuco and Juanmi as lesser players than those they replaced.

 

I hope that when we get Ramirez off our books in the summer that we can use the money saved from his wages to bump up those of others to keep them here or to bring in proven signings that can take us to the next level. If we do continue down this road of selling decent players and bringing in less than adequate replacements then it's going to end in relegation, pretty simple really.

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Poch, Clyne, Toby, for three more.

Whilst Liverpool had qualified the season before lallana and Lovren left they have not been champs league regulars for a significant period. They 100 percent aren't champs league certs every season are they?

Chambers, Shaw and Morgan are the only three I'd consider joined champions league clubs.

 

Poch isn't an ex player.

 

Toby was never our player.

 

Clyne went to Liverpool, a Champions League contender club, who sacked the previous manager for not making it, and have employed the new manager to take them back there. Clyne would have been bought to help achieve that aim.

 

They've all left us to go to get Champions League football, and the money that brings of course.

Edited by CB Fry
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Poch isn't an ex player.

 

Toby was never our player.

 

Clyne went to Liverpool, a Champions League contender club, who sacked the previous manager for not making it, and have employed the new manager to take them back there.

 

They've all left us to go to get Champions League football, and the salary that brings.

 

Ok another you have to win. Bit loose on your timeline though.Clyne didn't go to a club who had sacked their manager he has been sacked since Clyne has been there..liverpool have qualified once in what five or six years? So players who signed for Liverpool in 2010 have had one year in the champs league since..yep dead certs for champs league that lot

However as you have to be right I will agree you are Right and I am wrong.

No need for further debate.

Oh and I see Watford are rumoured to be throwing huge sums at their two star players despite them signing new 5 year deals this year in an attempt to keep them...fools they should ask you..you know better!

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Ok another you have to win. Bit loose on your timeline though.Clyne didn't go to a club who had sacked their manager he has been sacked since Clyne has been there..liverpool have qualified once in what five or six years? So players who signed for Liverpool in 2010 have had one year in the champs league since..yep dead certs for champs league that lot

However as you have to be right I will agree you are Right and I am wrong.

No need for further debate.

Oh and I see Watford are rumoured to be throwing huge sums at their two star players despite them signing new 5 year deals this year in an attempt to keep them...fools they should ask you..you know better!

 

What are you ranting about now?

 

Quite aware of the timeline re Clyne, the fact is Klopp has been appointed to get them back in the Champions League, and joined the club expecting to do that, as did Clyne, as did Lallana, as did Lovren. Rodgers got sacked because he failed to get them back into the CL. These are facts.

 

Good luck to Watford, I have no doubt they will be finishing top eight every single season for the next ten years now, because they're definitely not just the latest club that knee jerk forum bed-pi ssers can bawl their eyes out about. Why can't we be Watford oh why can't we be Watford oh why oh why it's so unfair.

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What are you ranting about now?

 

Quite aware of the timeline re Clyne, the fact is Klopp has been appointed to get them back in the Champions League, and joined the club expecting to do that, as did Clyne, as did Lallana, as did Lovren. Rodgers got sacked because he failed to get them back into the CL. These are facts.

 

Good luck to Watford, I have no doubt they will be finishing top eight every single season for the next ten years now, because they're definitely not just the latest club that knee jerk forum bed-pi ssers can bawl their eyes out about. Why can't we be Watford oh why can't we be Watford oh why oh why it's so unfair.

 

You really are a **** for brains. Don't you get it..I conceded you are right..you are not worth talking to..move on please

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I have always said this. People were very complacent in the Spring of 2004. The club then appointed a manager out of his depth and the slide began. I am afraid that we are already in a 'slide'. The only thing that leaves me in doubt was the great result against Arsenal. Other than that, things look ominous. Lose to Norwich and we are in the thick of it. If we fail to strengthen in the January transfer market we may well go down.

 

Pk4hq8q.gif

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Toby never played for Poch at Saints? Don't get your point?

Toby had the chance to join us but chose Spurs maybe due to Vertongen but most likely for a higher salary.

 

They ALL left for higher salaries but covered their arses with the excuse of 'Higher level football'. Paying higher wages doesen't improve the quality of the player does it?

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Poch isn't an ex player.

 

Toby was never our player.

 

Clyne went to Liverpool, a Champions League contender club, who sacked the previous manager for not making it, and have employed the new manager to take them back there. Clyne would have been bought to help achieve that aim.

 

They've all left us to go to get Champions League football, and the money that brings of course.

 

Whether Toby was our player or not we lost him from the team so it is a loss and we add a lot of time to secure that deal whilst he was here.

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The simple fact is with the massive injection of cash about to be plowed into the premier league there's going to be a big increase is transfer price's and player wages , Either we reevaluate our wage structure and transfer strategy or we will be left behind ! 3 or 4 years ago if someone had suggested Bojan and Shaqiri to Stoke they'd have been called a nutter we need to move with the times !?

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The simple fact is with the massive injection of cash about to be plowed into the premier league there's going to be a big increase is transfer price's and player wages , Either we reevaluate our wage structure and transfer strategy or we will be left behind ! 3 or 4 years ago if someone had suggested Bojan and Shaqiri to Stoke they'd have been called a nutter we need to move with the times !?

 

Our wages aren't going to stay at the same level for ever. I'm sure the club is aware that there is a significant amount of tv money incoming.

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I think the warning signs are there for us. We are very much in a simular situation to 2003 in that we could have built on our top 8 finish and our FA Cup final appearance. The club continued with its policy of selling its best players and guess what within two years we went down! The club chose to 'Play safe' as they saw it, and ultimately it bit us in the arse and it ended up almost killing the club as without the Premier League TV money we eventually slid into administration. We were VERY lucky that Markus Liebherr came to our rescue! The club appears to be following a simular policy to that under Lowe, the only difference being that we do not have shareholders wanting a cut this time around. I think its pretty apparent that Kathrina Liebherr is not going to throw millions of pounds of her money into SFC's pot any more without pay back. She wants the club to become self sufficient, which on the face of it is a good thing. The club is now left at a crossroads. It has to decide whether or not we are going to 'genuinely' attempt to compete at the top end of the Premier League (top 6) or whether its going to be happy to just stay in the league and take the TV money (which was Lowes policy) If we are going to genuinely compete we somehow have to find money to substantially increase the capacity of St Mary's and we have to start paying more money to players. Risky YES, but its also very risky just trying to stay in the Premier League because continually selling your best players will 'whether you want to admit to it or not' WILL gradually weaken your squad and i repeat IT WILL BITE YOU IN THE ARSE JUST LIKE 2005! UNLESS you are bang on with your recruitment all of the time and judging by some of our more recent signings we need to do better. My gut feeling is that Mr Koeman fears the direction the club is going, i can detect frustrations in some of his interviews. When you see clubs like Leicester, Crystal Palace, Stoke and West Ham overtaking you its concerning. Another thing to remember, West Ham are moving into the Olympic Stadium with a capacity of 54.000!!!, Crystal Palace are going to rebuild Selhurst Park to make it a 40.000 capacity!, Leicester City are looking at expanding the King Power Stadium to 42.000!. We could end up being left behind people! I know some of you will say i am talking crap but i feel pretty comfortable with what i am saying. We have big decisions facing us as a club.

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The aim of the club seems to be to inhabit the 6-10th bracket and turn a tidy profit. We are lean and agile, and generally well positioned to do so. I think it is interesting that lumbering giants like Newcastle, Sunderland and Villa are looking like falling through the trap door this season. Our model works, so long as we don't do a Hull/Wigan/Fulham.

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I don't think we are at a crossroads at all, we are doing very nicely - last season was probably the best we can achieve bar winning a cup. We are always going to lose players to clubs like Liverpool and Spurs, that's just where we are in the food chain.

 

We are nothing like the club that Saints was in 2004.

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I think the warning signs are there for us. We are very much in a simular situation to 2003 in that we could have built on our top 8 finish and our FA Cup final appearance. The club continued with its policy of selling its best players and guess what within two years we went down! The club chose to 'Play safe' as they saw it, and ultimately it bit us in the arse and it ended up almost killing the club as without the Premier League TV money we eventually slid into administration. We were VERY lucky that Markus Liebherr came to our rescue! The club appears to be following a simular policy to that under Lowe, the only difference being that we do not have shareholders wanting a cut this time around. I think its pretty apparent that Kathrina Liebherr is not going to throw millions of pounds of her money into SFC's pot any more without pay back. She wants the club to become self sufficient, which on the face of it is a good thing. The club is now left at a crossroads. It has to decide whether or not we are going to 'genuinely' attempt to compete at the top end of the Premier League (top 6) or whether its going to be happy to just stay in the league and take the TV money (which was Lowes policy) If we are going to genuinely compete we somehow have to find money to substantially increase the capacity of St Mary's and we have to start paying more money to players. Risky YES, but its also very risky just trying to stay in the Premier League because continually selling your best players will 'whether you want to admit to it or not' WILL gradually weaken your squad and i repeat IT WILL BITE YOU IN THE ARSE JUST LIKE 2005! UNLESS you are bang on with your recruitment all of the time and judging by some of our more recent signings we need to do better. My gut feeling is that Mr Koeman fears the direction the club is going, i can detect frustrations in some of his interviews. When you see clubs like Leicester, Crystal Palace, Stoke and West Ham overtaking you its concerning. Another thing to remember, West Ham are moving into the Olympic Stadium with a capacity of 54.000!!!, Crystal Palace are going to rebuild Selhurst Park to make it a 40.000 capacity!, Leicester City are looking at expanding the King Power Stadium to 42.000!. We could end up being left behind people! I know some of you will say i am talking crap but i feel pretty comfortable with what i am saying. We have big decisions facing us as a club.

 

Post of the day. You are spot on in your analysis. I would say, that the ambition of the board has always been to just be content with staying in the Premier League. However, even to do this requires more investment than we are currently getting. Perhaps, we are prepared to take a hit, in the form of relegation, because the board are confident we can bounce back. In other words a 'yoyo' policy.

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The aim of the club seems to be to inhabit the 6-10th bracket and turn a tidy profit. We are lean and agile, and generally well positioned to do so. I think it is interesting that lumbering giants like Newcastle, Sunderland and Villa are looking like falling through the trap door this season. Our model works, so long as we don't do a Hull/Wigan/Fulham.

 

If we lose to Norwich I think the trap door will be a bit close for comfort.

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