EU referendum

[hypochondriac]

Cameron made a tactical mistake. He isnt going to get a meaningful special deal Britain because the other 27 members know you cant run the EU on a pick and mix basis - that defeats the whole purpose. In any event no-one is going to vote for Britain to get a better deal than their own citizens.

 

Cameron would have been better waiting for two years and seeing what effect emerging nationalism across Europe has on the EU as a whole. Eurosceptic parties hold 25% of the seats in the current European Parliament and the refugee crisis is creating tensions in places like Austria and Denmark. Europe as a whole will have to change and the landscape could look very different within this parliament, rendering Cameron's deal irrelevant.

 

I thought the whole purpose was a common market? When was it decided that all the other stuff should be tacked on?

[buctootim]

I thought the whole purpose was a common market? When was it decided that all the other stuff should be tacked on?

 

Maastricht 1992

[Verbal]

Cameron made a tactical mistake. He isnt going to get a meaningful special deal Britain because the other 27 members know you cant run the EU on a pick and mix basis - that defeats the whole purpose. In any event no-one is going to vote for Britain to get a better deal than their own citizens.

 

He's made many mistakes, most driven by the longstanding schism within the Tory party itself over Europe. This referendum, in an important sense, is a sledgehammer to crush a Tory-sceptic nut. Win a yes vote, shut up the Tory awkward squad. Only it seems to awkward squad may well win.

 

But a no vote is also a huge problem for the rest of Europe, and may lead to its implosion. It'll be a game of chicken between Cameron and other European leaders if the polls leading up to the vote show a decisive no majority. I wouldn't be surprised if there were last minute concessions much closer to the vote, in which case Cameron may come out of it (electorally) well. Not that there's any realistic opposition...

[solentstars]

He's made many mistakes, most driven by the longstanding schism within the Tory party itself over Europe. This referendum, in an important sense, is a sledgehammer to crush a Tory-sceptic nut. Win a yes vote, shut up the Tory awkward squad. Only it seems to awkward squad may well win.

 

But a no vote is also a huge problem for the rest of Europe, and may lead to its implosion. It'll be a game of chicken between Cameron and other European leaders if the polls leading up to the vote show a decisive no majority. I wouldn't be surprised if there were last minute concessions much closer to the vote, in which case Cameron may come out of it (electorally) well. Not that there's any realistic opposition...

i voted yes in the last referndum and heard all the out nonsence from those opposed at the time which happened to be on the left who hated the eu and many expected us to leave.i,m confident that the bookies are right that we will vote to stay in when people are faced with being on our own.hopefully we can then move on from the fantasy world politics of the outs and they can defect to ukip loons .

[Wade Garrett]

A fair few in Cameron's cabinet set to oppose him.

[Batman]

A fair few in Cameron's cabinet set to oppose him.

 

and rightly so. What is he coming back with that is actually relevant??

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

I would be interested in your explanation as to why free trade agreements would have to be inextricably linked to free movement of people. Do we have to accept free movement of the peoples of those countries outside the EU with whom we have trade agreements? When Iceland signed its trade agreement with China, was that on the basis that unlimited numbers of Chinese could go and live in Iceland as a result?

 

 

 

Do they? As far as I can see, it is the people who wish us to remain in the EU who cite the examples of Norway and Switzerland and how they are hampered by these rules on free movement, how they have to abide by the EU rules without having any say in them. As the article also reports, the Swiss have voted in a referendum for the ability to impose their own quotas on immigration into their country from the EU zone, so if we voted to leave, other member states might decide to follow and a domino effect might ensue. It seems a good idea that should we vote to leave, Norway and Switzerland should be among the first countries that we agree increased trading agreements with.

 

The freedom of movement between member states of the EU might well be linked to free trade agreements, but if we voted to leave the EU, we would then renegotiate our trade agreements with them on mutually acceptable terms. As the fifth biggest economy in the World, we are quite a different entity to Norway and Switzerland and with immigration being perhaps the major issue in the referendum, we are hardly going to accept the free movement of peoples from the EU to the UK on the EU's terms. The object of leaving is to regain control over our borders and to make our own rules regarding who we were prepared to allow in and what access they then had to benefits, healthcare, etc.

 

Firstly, I will state for the record that I'm not great supporter of the EU as a idea. I don't much like the way it meddles in our affairs and how it undermines the authority of our courts, parliament and democracy. I am simply a bloke with a vote trying to work out what the hell to do in a situation that may well be far more complex and consequential than most commentators - on both sides of the argument - have so far admitted to the British people. This is surely a big decision, therefore it must also be a informed one.

 

Your notion that the UK could leave the EU - causing perhaps something approaching a crisis situation throughout the continent - and then negotiate a trade deal with all these - now alienated - foreign leaders that would be agreed on significantly more favourable terms than other non EU European states (such as Norway and Switzerland) have ever managed to achieve ... well such a idea looks very much like a terminal case of ''wishful thinking'' to me. I quite like the apocryphal ''Fog in channel Europe isolated'' attitude of times past, but I fear that type of thinking has become a tad outdated now.

 

We have seen today how difficult it is to reach majority agreement on new treaty arrangements with the other EU states while diplomatic relations between the UK and these states are still quite cordial in relative terms. Go back to the same table after monumentally aggravating everyone and the reception we would then receive seems unlikely to be a especially warm one I think - to put it mildly!

 

Yes should the UK vote to leave the EU than cross channel trade will of course continue as it has done for millennia. However, it seems quite likley that unless we accept (to some extent) the concept of the ''free movement'' of workers within the EU single market area then cross channel trade will become subject to tariff barriers again. That inevitably makes our exports less competitive and our imports more expensive too. All of which makes the UK a poorer nation potentially.

 

In 2014 the EU accounted for some 44.6% of all UK exports of goods and services.

Edited 19 February, 2016 by CHAPEL END CHARLIE

[aintforever]

Well I would expect a narrow call but in the great tradition of EU democracy if we vote to leave then there will immediately be a new package put together and we would be given another referendum when we vote to stay in.

 

Another reason to vote to leave, good Leverage for a better deal.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Maastricht 1992

 

John Major & his band of Euro nutters lead by , Hessaltine , Clarke and Fat Pang , should have given the British people a say . They couldn't , because they don't work like that . They gave away vast areas of British sovereignty without getting the people's consent . Hopefully they and the present band of wet little Europeans led by Dave & Gideon will have their smug patronising faces rubbed in it , come the glorious day we leave this old fashioned inward looking club for good . Just a shame that the biggest traitor , Grocer Heath isn't here to witness it .

[solentstars]

Firstly, I will state for the record that I'm not great supporter of the EU as a idea. I don't much like the way it meddles in our affairs and how it undermines the authority of our courts, parliament and democracy. I am simply a bloke with a vote trying to work out what the hell to do in a situation that may well be far more complex and consequential than most commentators - on both sides of the argument - have so far admitted to the British people. This is surely a big decision, therefore it must also be a informed one.

 

Your notion that the UK could leave the EU - causing perhaps something approaching a crisis situation throughout the continent - and then negotiate a trade deal with all these - now alienated - foreign leaders that would be agreed on significantly more favourable terms than other non EU European states (such as Norway and Switzerland) have ever managed to achieve ... well such a idea looks very much like a terminal case of ''wishful thinking'' to me. I quite like the apocryphal ''Fog in channel Europe isolated'' attitude of times past, but I fear that type of thinking has become a tad outdated now.

 

We have seen today how difficult it is to reach majority agreement on new treaty arrangements with the other EU states while diplomatic relations between the UK and these states are still quite cordial in relative terms. Go back to the same table after monumentally aggravating everyone and the reception we would then receive seems unlikely to be a especially warm one I think - to put it mildly!

 

Yes should the UK vote to leave the EU than cross channel trade will of course continue as it has done for millennia. However, it seems quite likley that unless we accept (to some extent) the concept of the ''free movement'' of workers within the EU single market area then cross channel trade will become subject to tariff barriers again. That inevitably makes our exports less competitive and our imports more expensive too. All of which makes the UK a poorer nation potentially.

 

In 2014 the EU accounted for some 44.6% of all UK exports of goods and services.

i think most people think like you and i think you actually understand the issues rather than those who have very simplistic views of it all being so easy to be outside of our main tradeing block ,rather than the reality of the real world as it is rather than living on past glorys of times which have gone.

[Batman]

EU back the UK wish list

 

Let's see how this pans out. The wish list was nothing to shout about

[badgerx16]

If Gove is for the OUT campaign, then I'm definitely voting IN.

[CB Fry]

If Gove is for the OUT campaign, then I'm definitely voting IN.

The Grassroots Out campaign is wheeling out Farage, Peter Bone, George Galloway giving barnstorming speeches to batty old women in Union Jack top hats. And what lovely lime green ties.

 

It was never really in doubt for me. I'm in, in, in.

[solentstars]

The Grassroots Out campaign is wheeling out Farage, Peter Bone, George Galloway giving barnstorming speeches to batty old women in Union Jack top hats. And what lovely lime green ties.

 

It was never really in doubt for me. I'm in, in, in.

No surprise most of the out campaign come from the lunatic fringes,the future belongs to the young not these old farts.

 

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

[melmacian_saint]

More pony from the Little Europeans. When we sign TTIP agreement with The US does that give their citizens free movement into the EU. Do Australians or Canadians have free movement , do they trade with the EU without it? The simple fact of the matter is that Norway & Switzerland have done a deal with the EU that suits them . Just because their sovereign parliaments accept free movement does not mean that the 5th largest economy in the world has to accept the same terms . The British Parliament could allow free movement of Americans or Canadians into the UK and when we leave the EU our sovereign parliament could allow free movement of EU citizens . However , we will have the right to chuck the government out and it'll be a UK only decision .

 

What we won't have is the pathetic sight of a UK prime minister going round Poland , Hungrey and the like , begging them to allow us to tweak OUR benefits . How on earth can you be called an independent country when you can't decide who receives your taxpayers money or even decide who can and can't enter your country .

 

The EFTA is doomed to cease to exist, sooner or later. Switzerland, Iceland, Norway and the little tax heaven are de facto members of the EU, and are bullied accordingly by its institutions.

 

Having said this, the signing of the TTIP (which will definitely by accelerated after this) will probably erase the rationale for many of the EU institutions, and the existence of the EU itself for most members, especially those outside of the monetary/financial union.

Edited 19 February, 2016 by melmacian_saint

[Wes Tender]

Firstly, I will state for the record that I'm not great supporter of the EU as a idea. I don't much like the way it meddles in our affairs and how it undermines the authority of our courts, parliament and democracy. I am simply a bloke with a vote trying to work out what the hell to do in a situation that may well be far more complex and consequential than most commentators - on both sides of the argument - have so far admitted to the British people. This is surely a big decision, therefore it must also be a informed one.

 

Your notion that the UK could leave the EU - causing perhaps something approaching a crisis situation throughout the continent - and then negotiate a trade deal with all these - now alienated - foreign leaders that would be agreed on significantly more favourable terms than other non EU European states (such as Norway and Switzerland) have ever managed to achieve ... well such a idea looks very much like a terminal case of ''wishful thinking'' to me. I quite like the apocryphal ''Fog in channel Europe isolated'' attitude of times past, but I fear that type of thinking has become a tad outdated now.

 

We have seen today how difficult it is to reach majority agreement on new treaty arrangements with the other EU states while diplomatic relations between the UK and these states are still quite cordial in relative terms. Go back to the same table after monumentally aggravating everyone and the reception we would then receive seems unlikely to be a especially warm one I think - to put it mildly!

 

Yes should the UK vote to leave the EU than cross channel trade will of course continue as it has done for millennia. However, it seems quite likley that unless we accept (to some extent) the concept of the ''free movement'' of workers within the EU single market area then cross channel trade will become subject to tariff barriers again. That inevitably makes our exports less competitive and our imports more expensive too. All of which makes the UK a poorer nation potentially.

 

In 2014 the EU accounted for some 44.6% of all UK exports of goods and services.

 

Like you, my main objection to the EU is based on those things you detest, the meddling in our affairs, the undermining of the authority of our courts and the loss of Sovereignty, but also the loss of control over our borders.

 

Where I disagree with you is over the renegotiation of our trading relationship with the EU should we vote to leave it. Once again, you prove that the situation of Norway and Switzerland is something mentioned by the stay in brigade, rather than the leave fraternity. As the fifth biggest economy, we are quite different to them and carry much more clout. It is fair to say that the EU needs trade with us more than we need trade with them, so although they would undoubtedly be miffed at us for leaving, they would have to recognise that we did not leave because we wished to cease trading with them, but that we left because of all of those things you mentioned that have caused enmity with you and I and a substantial proportion of the British public.

 

These talks between Cameron and the EU have not been about trade. They have been about benefits, the increasing federalisation of the EU, border controls, etc. These were things that were agreed by successive UK governments who signed treaties like Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon, which brought about the changes to the original trading foundations of the Common Market and turned us into a member of something quite different without consultation of the electorate by way of a referendum.

 

Cameron has returned from his meetings with the heads of the other EU states claiming to have achieved substantial reforms. Everybody knows that to be a fudge, that he has only achieved minor concessions and there is doubt that even those will be delivered. The British public are not stupid and will vote to leave the EU in June and then the negotiations for the basis of trade agreements will commence. But whereas there could be some free movement of workers between the us and EU states, we would not be obliged to pay benefits to them and could set our own restraints on the numbers and origins of where they came from. Should the EU attempt to impose tariffs on us, that would be counter-productive, as we would retaliate to nobody's benefit. It would also persuade us to seek out trade elsewhere with more favourable terms, again to Europe's disadvantage. It is we who have the best hand of cards and it is a pity that Cameron wasn't able to act in a more bullish manner. He hinted to us that if he didn't get satisfaction over our demands that he could consider joining the leave camp, but he doesn't seem to have told the EU that. I don't think for one minute that he is strong enough or principled enough to be a convincing negotiator able to carry through such a threat which would make them sit up and take him seriously enough. He is like Chamberlain returning clutching his piece of paper.

[Wes Tender]

No surprise most of the out campaign come from the lunatic fringes,the future belongs to the young not these old farts.

 

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

 

Are you looking forward to being back at school next week?

[Whitey Grandad]

No surprise most of the out campaign come from the lunatic fringes,the future belongs to the young not these old farts.

 

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

 

From what I've read support for staying in gets much higher as the age of those questioned gets lower. It seems that the youngsters see their future as part of the EU.

[BlakeySFC]

The big questions are: Are you IN? Are you OUT? Are you shaking it all ABOUT?

[hutch]

EU back the UK wish list

 

Let's see how this pans out. The wish list was nothing to shout about

Yep, looks like we got a great deal there

 

The PM said the agreement, reached late on Friday after two days of talks in Brussels, would include a seven-year "emergency brake" on welfare payments.

 

He added it also included changes to EU treaties and would be presented to his cabinet at 10:00 GMT.

 

Or maybe not

 

French President Francois Hollande stressed that "no revision of the treaties is planned".

[Kingsbridge Saint]

Trusting the French and Germans hasn't turned out too well in the past - early 1800's for the former, early 1900's for the latter. It's all different this time around though. Of course it is.

[Batman]

This proposal clearly isn't worth anything at all. The EU parliament can easily throw the lot out. They won't get to vote on this until AFTER the UK referendum.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Now here's a image to make anyone even thinking about voting to leave the EU have second thoughts ...

 

 

The ''Go'' campaign need only persuade Donald Trump to join them and then they would have the full set of jackass politicians on board.

[Batman]

Now here's a image to make anyone even thinking about voting to leave the EU have second thoughts ...

 

 

The ''Go'' campaign need only persuade Donald Trump to join them and then they would have the full set of jackass politicians on board.

 

Surely, a decision like this should not be based on who leads the campaign. This is not choosing a new party to lead you or a new PM.

 

You could say the same for the stay bods. The mad hatter Corbyn is all over staying. He is a loon

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Surely, a decision like this should not be based on who leads the campaign. This is not choosing a new party to lead you or a new PM.

 

You could say the same for the stay bods. The mad hatter Corbyn is all over staying. He is a loon

 

I agree - everyone should base their decision on the issues at hand rather than on the personalities involved in campaigning. Having said that Nigel Farage and George Galloway - especially the later - are not the type of politicians likley to win over this voter to the Britex point of view.

[Batman]

I agree - everyone should base their decision on the issues at hand rather than on the personalities involved in campaigning. Having said that Nigel Farage and George Galloway - especially the later - are not the type of politicians likley to win over this voter to the Britex point of view.

 

Let's not pretend you are there for winning over.

 

I am voting out. Always was.

I expect the nation will vote to stay but hey ho

[TwoPints]

Let's not pretend you are there for winning over.

 

I am voting out. Always was.

I expect the nation will vote to stay but hey ho

I'm IN ?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Let's not pretend you are there for winning over.

 

I am voting out. Always was.

I expect the nation will vote to stay but hey ho

 

Let's not assume that you somehow know how people that you have never even met will decide to cast their vote in March. Admittedly at the moment I'm - with some reluctance - leaning towards the ''stay'' camp. However, I certainly intend to listen to the arguments put forward carefully and might even be persuaded to change my mind if the ''Go'' side can present a powerful enough argument.

 

Note that the attendance of George Galloway at this ''Go'' rally yesterday reportedly resulted in many confirmed advocates of our leaving the EU opting to walk out of the building - or rather they would have had not the doors been locked!

[Whitey Grandad]

Now here's a image to make anyone even thinking about voting to leave the EU have second thoughts ...

 

 

The ''Go'' campaign need only persuade Donald Trump to join them and then they would have the full set of jackass politicians on board.

 

My views are firmly in the 'stay' camp despite what the politicians think, but I wouldn't trust the opinions of either of these two clowns on anything.

[Wes Tender]

Now here's a image to make anyone even thinking about voting to leave the EU have second thoughts ...

 

 

The ''Go'' campaign need only persuade Donald Trump to join them and then they would have the full set of jackass politicians on board.

 

 

Something needs to be desperately wrong with an institution like the EU for it to unite such diverse extremes of the political spectrum in opposition to it.

[Wes Tender]

Let's not assume that you somehow know how people that you have never even met will decide to cast their vote in March.

 

 

What will the vote in March be about?

[TwoPints]

Something needs to be desperately wrong with an institution like the EU for it to unite such diverse extremes of the political spectrum in opposition to it.

It's the modus operandi of extremists isn't it, to separate and segregate whatever their extreme views?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

What will the vote in March be about?

 

Sorry my mistake.

 

I meant to say June of course - if that is indeed the month the PM decides upon.

[Wes Tender]

Sorry my mistake.

 

I meant to say June of course - if that is indeed the month the PM decides upon.

 

It will almost certainly be June, or the immigration crisis at Calais during the warmer Summer months will reach a crescendo, and appearing on the news nightly, will add percentage points to the leave brigade. That will almost certainly happen within the next few days even, when this situation erupts into inevitable violence:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35618389

[Johnny Bognor]

On a side note, what happens to UKIP after the referendum?

 

if we leave, they are no longer required. if we stay, they have no mandate. Therefore is the refurendum more about removing UKIP from the political landscape and the tories winning back the lost centre right votes??

 

just a thought

[CB Fry]

On a side note, what happens to UKIP after the referendum?

 

if we leave, they are no longer required. if we stay, they have no mandate. Therefore is the refurendum more about removing UKIP from the political landscape and the tories winning back the lost centre right votes??

 

just a thought

Don't rule out a movement not dissimilar to "The 45%" from Scotland made up of the losing side. And the SNP have done okay since.

 

The referendum won't really finish anything.

[sadoldgit]

Trusting the French and Germans hasn't turned out too well in the past - early 1800's for the former, early 1900's for the latter. It's all different this time around though. Of course it is.

 

The world has moved on considerably during this period. Apart maybe from the Little Englanders that still exist. Why we think we are more of a special case that Germany, France or any other member state is beyond me. It is "in" for me.

[Batman]

There will be plenty of mud getting slung.

there will be loads of doom mongering from each side at the consequences of the other side stance winning

 

the UK will vote to stay in but it will be fairly close and the EU parliament will water down some of the proposals later on in the year

not much will change and that will be that for our lifetime(s)

[Verbal]

Surely, a decision like this should not be based on who leads the campaign. This is not choosing a new party to lead you or a new PM.

 

You could say the same for the stay bods. The mad hatter Corbyn is all over staying. He is a loon

 

But who leads the respective campaigns is highly relevant to the tenor of the debate before June and the outcome.

 

The out brigade's leading advocates are a bunch of marginalised idiots with approval public ratings down the pan. If you're going to side with Farage, Galloway and Iain Duncan Smith, you may be tempted to ask what's wrong with you. These are widely despised individuals, and with good reason. Even Gove, the darling of certain sections of the Tory party, has dreadful approval ratings in opinion polls.

 

On the yes side, Alan Johnson, for Labour, and Theresa May, for the Tories, have a much wider popularity and political weight. And Cameron has the advantage of the incumbency of office to make the balance even more for the impression of a level-headed Yes campaign against a swivel-eyed loon-led No vote. Corbyn is really a yes-no fence-sitter, as ever considering his 'options', so he doesn't count.

 

There will be plenty of voters who will think they don't want to get into the arcane legalities of the debate but will weigh up their vote based on a judgement of relative sanity among the lading advocates On that basis alone, the Yes vote wins by a mile.

[solentstars]

From what I've read support for staying in gets much higher as the age of those questioned gets lower. It seems that the youngsters see their future as part of the EU.

it was the same in 1975,i,m 60 now and voted to stay in and seen enormousness benefits in my lifetime but i .m glad the tide is turning back to sanity and postivity and away from nationlistic drival and the just say no brigade with no plan.the prime minister has done a great job and i,m thinking of our childrens future.

[Patrick Bateman]

I will be staggered if the vote results in a "stay". Absolutely staggered.

[Whitey Grandad]

I will be staggered if the vote results in a "stay". Absolutely staggered.

 

For our children's and grandchildren's sake I can only hope that you will be staggered.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Galloway campaigned on Cameron's side during the Scottish vote , the establishment were OK with that . He's only following the Lefts historic position , a position taken by Benn, Foot, Crow, Corbyn ( before he put career before country ) & Kinnock ( before him & his mrs jumped aboard the gravy train ) . George will reach parts of the electorate others can't .

 

Dingy-Jones , Frank Field , Gisela Stuart , Priti Patel, Kate Hoey , these are people Cameron is going to have a hard job portraying as loons .

 

Fry is right ,a remain vote won't change anything , the same feeling will come over people it did following Wilsons con . The feeling that we didn't vote for this . When people realise that this " special position " is pony , when TTIP opens up the nhs to American health providers , when the migrant crisis explodes ,when millions of Turks get free movement , when we can't deport a terrorist , people are going to feel disillusioned . The country is more split than that previous vote , it could well be that England vote out only for other nations to keep us in . The Tory faithful are committed to out in the vast majority of cases , (good luck to the Remainian that goes to the grassroots in a leadership election ). The only way this boil was ever going to be lanced is if we were persuaded to see the Eu like Europeans see it . We don't , but nobody ever argues that case . They still try and say it's just a trading bloc or we have a special position in it . One day the establishments chickens will come home to roost , their lies will catch up with them . Hopefully it'll be June 23rd but if not , like the Scot Nats , the leave people aren't going away .

[CB Fry]

Galloway campaigned on Cameron's side during the Scottish vote , the establishment were OK with that . He's only following the Lefts historic position , a position taken by Benn, Foot, Crow, Corbyn ( before he put career before country ) & Kinnock ( before him & his mrs jumped aboard the gravy train ) . George will reach parts of the electorate others can't .

 

Dingy-Jones , Frank Field , Gisela Stuart , Priti Patel, Kate Hoey , these are people Cameron is going to have a hard job portraying as loons .

 

Fry is right ,a remain vote won't change anything , the same feeling will come over people it did following Wilsons con . The feeling that we didn't vote for this . When people realise that this " special position " is pony , when TTIP opens up the nhs to American health providers , when the migrant crisis explodes ,when millions of Turks get free movement , when we can't deport a terrorist , people are going to feel disillusioned . The country is more split than that previous vote , it could well be that England vote out only for other nations to keep us in . The Tory faithful are committed to out in the vast majority of cases , (good luck to the Remainian that goes to the grassroots in a leadership election ). The only way this boil was ever going to be lanced is if we were persuaded to see the Eu like Europeans see it . We don't , but nobody ever argues that case . They still try and say it's just a trading bloc or we have a special position in it . One day the establishments chickens will come home to roost , their lies will catch up with them . Hopefully it'll be June 23rd but if not , like the Scot Nats , the leave people aren't going away .

 

Be fair - George Galloway did not campaign with Cameron, or as part of the Better Together movement, so he never did anything that "the establishment" was "comfortable" with. They happened to be on the same side but at more than arms length from each other.

 

The Out campaign will be more passionate bordering on "loons", the In campaign will be more pragmatic bordering on "uninspiring/boring".

 

It's a tightrope for both campaigns.

[aintforever]

Corbyn is really a yes-no fence-sitter, as ever considering his 'options', so he doesn't count.

 

I expect both the in and out camps have told him to **** off.

[ScepticalStan]

I will be staggered if the vote results in a "stay". Absolutely staggered.

 

Seriously? The bookies have 'stay' at 1/3.

[buctootim]

A no vote is also a huge problem for the rest of Europe, and may lead to its implosion.........I wouldn't be surprised if there were last minute concessions much closer to the vote.

 

Its Hobson's choice for the EU. They have to work out which will be least damaging - giving concessions to Britain to ensure a stay vote which then opens the door for a host of 'me too' claims from other countries - or refusing a meaningful deal which risks pushing Britain to the exit. I imagine they've done the sums which show Britain will stay. Even if we voted to exit it would leave the remaining EU more united and less fractious - the disgruntled group will have lost the biggest hitter.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

But who leads the respective campaigns is highly relevant to the tenor of the debate before June and the outcome.

 

The out brigade's leading advocates are a bunch of marginalised idiots with approval public ratings down the pan. If you're going to side with Farage, Galloway and Iain Duncan Smith, you may be tempted to ask what's wrong with you. These are widely despised individuals, and with good reason. Even Gove, the darling of certain sections of the Tory party, has dreadful approval ratings in opinion polls.

 

On the yes side, Alan Johnson, for Labour, and Theresa May, for the Tories, have a much wider popularity and political weight. And Cameron has the advantage of the incumbency of office to make the balance even more for the impression of a level-headed Yes campaign against a swivel-eyed loon-led No vote. Corbyn is really a yes-no fence-sitter, as ever considering his 'options', so he doesn't count.

 

There will be plenty of voters who will think they don't want to get into the arcane legalities of the debate but will weigh up their vote based on a judgement of relative sanity among the lading advocates On that basis alone, the Yes vote wins by a mile.

 

If Boris opts to lead the out vote then we are probably in for a very close call. I think you can expect the same pattern as the Scottish referendum; polls that show the leave camp artificially inflated and then a shift back to stay in the polling booth as people vote with their heads and not their hearts. If the leave camp are in the lead in the polls then this will surely spook the EU into making more concessions just like in the Scottish referendum.

[Lord Duckhunter]

I expect both the in and out camps have told him to **** off.

 

If he wasn't labour leader he'd be voting leave , he's put his career and party management above his principles .

[Batman]

If he wasn't labour leader he'd be voting leave , he's put his career and party management above his principles .

 

typical career politician