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EU referendum


Wade Garrett

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Comments under that tweet referring to Remain voters as 'traitors' show how the announcement of the result, whichever way it goes, will leave a huge divide in the country.

 

I bet it will all be back to normal in a few weeks

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56% leave 44% remain.

 

Sunderland will declare first showing a massive win for Leave far beyond the expectations of the experts and then it goes from there. Paddy Ashdown will say he doesn't believe the early results which will be the death knell.

 

Also, it's raining in London which will knock out a reasonable percentage of turnout from one of the strongest remain areas.

CB Fry calling the f uck out of it. Well, the Sunderland bit anyway.

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Out will win.

 

There are experts saying that undecided people will revert to the status quo like they did with Scotland but they won't. Wavering Scottish people I think genuinely saw independence as a leap in the dark, a load of faff and nor really necessary, and that things are fine as they are. That made sense in the ballot box. A simple, well, nah. Thanks Alex and Nicola but nah.

 

That thinking really doesn't apply here. Huge swathes of people have no genuine concept that the EU is any force for good at all, it doesn't represent a cosy status quo like the concept of the UK did in Scotland. It's not intuitive. People who don't think about this stuff at all will trudge down the polling station and vote leave. Easily. It's even got a really easy name. Leave. Leave. Too easy.

 

I read today there are not going to be any exit polls on Thursday which is bloody annoying but there was some indication of how to read the results as they come in. ie Sunderland will declare first, but if it is, say, only a 6% swing for Leave that suggests a dead heat across the whole country.

 

It then went on to say that Remain need to win cities like Newcastle to win the vote. A belwether city. And then I knew. I know jack about Newcastle but why would that city vote remain? Theyre not. Why would Coventry? Why would Derby? They're not. Norwich, Bristol, Brighton, Oxford. Yep, fine. Trendy London, obviously. unless the next few days are a car crash for leave I cannot see how they can possibly lose from here.

 

Cameron is going to get a fu cking pasting.

This was my solemn prediction and I am standing by it now. Newcastle voted in by a squeak but the industrial cities of England like Stoke won't. Scotland and Wales and London and Norwich are not going to carry it for Remain.

 

Leave will win.

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