EU referendum

[SO16_Saint]

It may well be that if the vote is close to remain that it will turn UK politics on it's head. It is likely there will be a new anti EU party floated which will then incorporate the UKIP voters, Leave voters from Conservative and Labour which could give them a majority in the first past the post system in the next General Election as the remain vote would be divided on party lines. Then we will be out.

 

Thats all well and good but a political party should have a manifesto covering many areas, not just immigration - which is where UKIP fall down, and would become irrelevant if we were to vote leave, surely?

[Lord Duckhunter]

and would become irrelevant if we were to vote leave, surely?

 

Not at all . If vast areas of England's working class areas vote leave , who speaks for them ? The metropolitan leftie elites of labour , the soaking wet Tory party that are a branch of big business . It's perfectly conceivable that a narrow remain vote could be the making of them . As great as he's done , they need to ditch Nigel and push people like Evans & O Flynn to the fore . There could be some Tory defections as well , provided they're credible like Carswell and not weirdos like Nadine D or Bone , that will grow the party . What they really need is a labour defection , a Mann or Field , but that's not going to happen . The way I look at it if leave get 45% , at least 35% of those are going to be incredibly ****ed off with the established parties . 35% is a big voting bloc and provided it's not spread out across the whole country and some of it is concentrated in certain areas , they could be in business

[moonraker]

Not at all . If vast areas of England's working class areas vote leave , who speaks for them ? The metropolitan leftie elites of labour , the soaking wet Tory party that are a branch of big business . It's perfectly conceivable that a narrow remain vote could be the making of them . As great as he's done , they need to ditch Nigel and push people like Evans & O Flynn to the fore . There could be some Tory defections as well , provided they're credible like Carswell and not weirdos like Nadine D or Bone , that will grow the party . What they really need is a labour defection , a Mann or Field , but that's not going to happen . The way I look at it if leave get 45% , at least 35% of those are going to be incredibly ****ed off with the established parties . 35% is a big voting bloc and provided it's not spread out across the whole country and some of it is concentrated in certain areas , they could be in business

 

The real hurdle they will have to clear is that of being Right Wing. Working class voters are in the main only interested in UKIP becuase of immigration, their other policies, such as they are, will not attract suffiecient traditional left of centre voters to have any chance of electroral success in FPTP system. They are a one policy party in the eyes of much of the electorate, a policy that is unworkable, that leave has admitted is unlikely to curb immigration signifcantly.

[shurlock]

The real hurdle they will have to clear is that of being Right Wing. Working class voters are in the main only interested in UKIP becuase of immigration, their other policies, such as they are, will not attract suffiecient traditional left of centre voters to have any chance of electroral success in FPTP system. They are a one policy party in the eyes of much of the electorate, a policy that is unworkable, that leave has admitted is unlikely to curb immigration signifcantly.

 

There's always national socialism

[Whitey Grandad]

Let me repeat my original comment because you seem to have wandered a bit

 

Ah, I may has misread your original comment.

 

The situation as it currently stands isn't one of the options to vote for. We're voting for whether we prefer a changing and unpredictable future in the EU or out of it.

 

Did you mean

 

'a changing and unpredictable future in the EU or out of it'

 

or

 

'a changing and unpredictable future in the EU, or out of it' ?

 

If it was the first then I can agree with you to some extent, although I think we have a lot more influence should we choose to remain.

[Whitey Grandad]

Well gentlemen, It has been an interesting and stimulating few weeks (months?). I think I shall take a break from the debate for this evening. An early night beckons methinks, and that way I shall know the result as soon as I wake up. It does save all those tedious hours of waiting up through the small hours. Whatever the outcome I rather suspect that the debates and arguments will rumble on for a long while yet.

 

My advice is to have a few beers and watch something else. Shame there's no footy tonight.

[Batman]

YouGov will give the results of their poll from today at 10pm

How accurate were they last year on voting day?

[buctootim]

YouGov will give the results of their poll from today at 10pm

How accurate were they last year on voting day?

 

Its a poll though right? not an exit poll?

[View From The Top]

YouGov will give the results of their poll from today at 10pm

How accurate were they last year on voting day?

 

After last years fiasco with polling I think I'll just await the result!

[Batman]

Its a poll though right? not an exit poll?

 

yes. god knows how they will conduct it and where. Sure they did something similar themselves for the General Election last year?

[buctootim]

Well gentlemen, It has been an interesting and stimulating few weeks (months?). I think I shall take a break from the debate for this evening. An early night beckons methinks, and that way I shall know the result as soon as I wake up. It does save all those tedious hours of waiting up through the small hours. Whatever the outcome I rather suspect that the debates and arguments will rumble on for a long while yet.

 

My advice is to have a few beers and watch something else. Shame there's no footy tonight.

 

I reckon that although it will be close the result will likely be clear by 1am. Quite a lot of work has gone into identifying bellweather cities.

[buctootim]

yes. god knows how they will conduct it and where. Sure they did something similar themselves for the General Election last year?

 

No idea. Doesnt even mention it on their website.

[Window Cleaner]

Reckon it will be about 53/47 myself.

Pity there's a global press ban on publishing exit polls though. Used to be able to get all the UK election gen by looking at the Nairobi Daily Herald or similar.

[badgerx16]

It may well be that if the vote is close to remain that it will turn UK politics on it's head. It is likely there will be a new anti EU party floated which will then incorporate the UKIP voters, Leave voters from Conservative and Labour which could give them a majority in the first past the post system in the next General Election as the remain vote would be divided on party lines. Then we will be out.

A perfect example of why FPTP is not democratic, the majority view is suppressed by manipulation of the system.

[TwoPints]

Reckon it will be about 53/47 myself.

Pity there's a global press ban on publishing exit polls though. Used to be able to get all the UK election gen by looking at the Nairobi Daily Herald or similar.

Well you can't get a more comprehensive survey than a 1000 or so Saints fans! [emoji6] Looks like you're bang on Mr Cleaner!

 

 

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[shurlock]

Well gentlemen, It has been an interesting and stimulating few weeks (months?). I think I shall take a break from the debate for this evening. An early night beckons methinks, and that way I shall know the result as soon as I wake up. It does save all those tedious hours of waiting up through the small hours. Whatever the outcome I rather suspect that the debates and arguments will rumble on for a long while yet.

 

My advice is to have a few beers and watch something else. Shame there's no footy tonight.

 

And no gloating

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2016/06/22/transcript-professor-michael-dougan-eu-referendum/.

 

The more negative reason (to vote Remain) I have to say, is one which is directly linked also to my work, which I have just watched with increasing dismay as this referendum debate has unfolded. I have to say although the remain campaign have not exactly covered themselves in glory at points with their use of dodgy statistics, I think the leave campaign has degenerated in to dishonesty on an industrial scale. There is no other way to put it, on an industrial scale ...

 

Fair comment I think.

[CB Fry]

As far as I know there isn't an exit poll.

 

That's the one that was pretty much bang on last year. It was the Paddy Ashdown eat-my-hat poll and he scoffed that mother.

 

Not sure why they're not doing it this time but they're not. So I think any poll will be yet another poll/Web thing so not necessarily any more accurate.

[SO16_Saint]

As far as I know there isn't an exit poll.

 

That's the one that was pretty much bang on last year. It was the Paddy Ashdown eat-my-hat poll and he scoffed that mother.

 

Not sure why they're not doing it this time but they're not. So I think any poll will be yet another poll/Web thing so not necessarily any more accurate.

 

It's something to do with the fact that with exit polls they can assess how that specific polling station changed in comparison to the previous election - where in this case there is no 'previous' election....or not one in recent history, anyway.

 

There was a chap on Daily Politics yesterday explaining why there won't be any exit polls today

[Lord Duckhunter]

Just been up and voted to take back control .

 

Some sad sack with an "In" badge was stood outside clip board in hand . I gave him a few choice words and pointed out it was illegal to canvass in or around a polling station . He claimed he was just noting turnout . On the way out I had a chat with him , he turned out to be quite a nice chap . Anyway , he told me turnout had amazed him and that other local collagues were reporting the same " somethings happening " he said . As I thought that was bad for us , I was a bit down . But , he claimed locally they (in) were getting concerned . Turnout exceptionally high in areas Leave need them to be to win .His view was turnout below 40% and Leave will have it , but also once it goes over 75% it's clearly a mass movement . A movement of people who don't normally vote , kicking the EU or a movement of silent remainers not wanting Farage & co winning . Which one is it? I went for his lot winning and he went for mine . It may not be replicated around the country & our seat would elect a Tory even if Jimmy Savillie was the candidate , so there's normally not much point in voting ( which explains higher turnout maybe ) but I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was earlier.

[aintforever]

I think remain will win and it with be knocking on 60%, maybe more.

 

Was going to go down and vote but chatting to the Mrs on way down found out she was going to vote remain so we agreed there was no point cancelling each other's out and went for a drink instead.

[JackFrost]

56% leave 44% remain.

 

Sunderland will declare first showing a massive win for Leave far beyond the expectations of the experts and then it goes from there. Paddy Ashdown will say he doesn't believe the early results which will be the death knell.

 

Also, it's raining in London which will knock out a reasonable percentage of turnout from one of the strongest remain areas.

 

The final nail in the coffin for the leave vote was Gove saying he'd resign if Britain voted to stay in the EU.

 

Remain will win 61%-39%

[benjii]

Decided not to vote. I don't think there is a positive long-term case for remain but I think a leave vote will lead to some spectacularly inept political bungling, whilst politicians create a hideous unconstitutional Frankenstein's monster of a compromise.

 

 

It's a crap choice.

[TwoPints]

I think remain will win and it with be knocking on 60%, maybe more.

 

Was going to go down and vote but chatting to the Mrs on way down found out she was going to vote remain so we agreed there was no point cancelling each other's out and went for a drink instead.

Did you only just find out your wife's views on this on the way to the polling station?

 

Just been and voted to save the country from itself. Let's hope there are enough people voting Remain to win this thing once and for all. Well, at least for a few years any way.

[Lord Duckhunter]

The final nail in the coffin for the leave vote was Gove saying he'd resign if Britain voted to stay in the EU.

 

Remain will win 61%-39%

 

No he didn't , that was a fake Twitter account

[TwoPints]

No he didn't , that was a fake Twitter account

Damn!

 

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[Lord Duckhunter]

I think remain will win and it with be knocking on 60%, maybe more.

 

Was going to go down and vote but chatting to the Mrs on way down found out she was going to vote remain so we agreed there was no point cancelling each other's out and went for a drink instead.

 

You should have told her you were going for a pony , climbed out the window , sprinted to the polling station & voted before running back to pub . If we lose by one vote we know who to blame .

 

My snap dragon told me to remind her to vote , but as she's a soft leftie remainer I did no such thing . She's gone off to babysit our granddaughter now and the poling card is still pinned up in utility room , looks like the silly moos forgot .

[aintforever]

Did you only just find out your wife's views on this on the way to the polling station?

 

Just been and voted to save the country from itself. Let's hope there are enough people voting Remain to win this thing once and for all. Well, at least for a few years any way.

 

She's been undecided but fell for project fear in the end. I expect the vast majority from the 'don't knows' in the polls will opt for the safe option and vote remain. It's a shame the campaign resorted to bull**** scare stories but it will have worked IMO.

[TwoPints]

She's been undecided but fell for project fear in the end. I expect the vast majority from the 'don't knows' in the polls will opt for the safe option and vote remain. It's a shame the campaign resorted to bull**** scare stories but it will have worked IMO.

Fair 'nuff. I must admit that a beer sounds like a decent compromise. ?

 

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[derry]

She's been undecided but fell for project fear in the end. I expect the vast majority from the 'don't knows' in the polls will opt for the safe option and vote remain. It's a shame the campaign resorted to bull**** scare stories but it will have worked IMO.

 

Or not bother. My son called in at 0730 this morning on his way to work, I handed him his polling card and told him to vote on his way. He decided out though he works for Mercedes, but wasn't bothering. I told him I was on my way there now and I'd check he had voted. He had.

[Pamplemousse]

As far as I know there isn't an exit poll.

 

That's the one that was pretty much bang on last year. It was the Paddy Ashdown eat-my-hat poll and he scoffed that mother.

 

Not sure why they're not doing it this time but they're not. So I think any poll will be yet another poll/Web thing so not necessarily any more accurate.

 

YouGov are doing one.

 

Apparently it's similar to the one they did for the Scottish referendum, and they got to within 1% of the actual result.

[TwoPints]

OK, so what are people's tactics for tonight:

 

1. Stay up all night drinking until the result is known

2. Wake up early to check the result

3. **** all. What will happen will happen. No point stressing over it.

 

Personally, I'm planning on going for option 1 but to be honest, I've had a sh*t week so might call it a day when the first bottle of wine and bacon bites have gone. That'll be about half ten. ?

 

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[SO16_Saint]

OK, so what are people's tactics for tonight:

 

1. Stay up all night drinking until the result is known

2. Wake up early to check the result

3. **** all. What will happen will happen. No point stressing over it.

 

Personally, I'm planning on going for option 1 but to be honest, I've had a sh*t week so might call it a day when the first bottle of wine and bacon bites have gone. That'll be about half ten. 

 

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3 all the way. With 2 kids under 5 and one or the other, sometimes both, incapable of sleeping past 6AM - im on the way up to bed as soon as the 10 oclock news starts... sometimes, if imfeeling frisky, i'll catch the headlines

[ScepticalStan]

Said it a few times but I see that as a leave win because a) turnout will support leave and far too many young Remain professionals will forget/not be arsed/stay in the pub/lose their voting card thing etc etc and will get obliterated by the stoic voting pensioner army and b) I don't buy the "people will vote for the status quo" thing. It made sense in Scotland but it doesn't here. People who haven't thought about it until this morning aren't going to instinctively vote for Europe/Germans/Brussels/Immigrants. It's a status quo with no residual value.

 

Leave will win.

 

The bookies, not the pollsters, will be proven wrong this time. Not that they'll lose a penny.

 

You feeling like a bit of a wally yet?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Some say that if the turnout is 75% or more then this is a good sign for Leave as - they reckon - that many anti-establishment types who do not normally vote must have turned out to give the established (EU) order a good kick in the pants.

 

We will soon see I suppose.

[CB Fry]

You feeling like a bit of a wally yet?

I must have missed some of the results come in - what's the latest?

[View From The Top]

Some say that if the turnout is 75% or more then this is a good sign for Leave as - they reckon - that many anti-establishment types who do not normally vote must have turned out to give the established (EU) order a good kick in the pants.

 

We will soon see I suppose.

 

The counter argument that I saw was that the Leave vote was always going to turn out regardless and that a high % turnout would benefit the Remain whose support was always more apathetic.

[buctootim]

The counter argument that I saw was that the Leave vote was always going to turn out regardless and that a high % turnout would benefit the Remain whose support was always more apathetic.

 

Some truth in that imo. I voted this morning in the sunshine, the polling booth was full of old dears. This evening, as people get back from work its been hissing down. That will play a part too if its replicated across the country.

[CB Fry]

 

Odd. It looks legit (in that his profile and tweets he is a real person not a nutcase/tweetbot).

[SO16_Saint]

[TwoPints]

Here we go!

 

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[SO16_Saint]

YouGov: 51% REMAIN - 49% LEAVE

[CB Fry]

YouGov: 51% REMAIN - 49% LEAVE

Er, 52% / 48% It's on the TV now.

[Pamplemousse]

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 53s53 seconds ago

EU referendum 'on the day' poll:

Remain: 52%

Leave: 48%

[CB Fry]

Either way looking like a knife edge night.

[Batman]

Looks like from these little snippets, remain will win. As expected

[SO16_Saint]

Er, 52% / 48% It's on the TV now.

 

sorry, yes. they tweeted a poll from last night at 22:00 tonight... useful... still, that's damn close!

[SO16_Saint]

Looks like from these little snippets, remain will win. As expected

 

But not as convincingly as expected... time for DC to step down

[Pamplemousse]

But not as convincingly as expected... time for DC to step down

 

I don't see it happening. He's already said he won't stand as prime minister in 2020 so it doesn't really make any sense. The Conservatives are more divided than ever; they need to focus on unifying again in the coming weeks.

[CB Fry]

Looks like from these little snippets, remain will win. As expected

Let's see.

 

That turnout might be inspired young previously apathetic remainers or it might a molten raging lump of previously apathetic working class brexiteers.

 

People that have never voted before can't be predicted so well, despite pollsters and bookies.