EU referendum

[Wes Tender]

The repetition of "Vote leave, and take back control" has been one of strongest things about the Leave campaign. Great marketing.

 

Remain is an awful fiddly word that no one on the remain side used with any discipline.

 

Even on the ballot paper the leave line is shorter and clearer.

 

You're right. When an undecided voter has the pencil poised over the ballot paper and makes their final decision, they will look at both options and reading Leave, will bring up the sub-conscious "and take back control." As you say, they have received some clever marketing advice.

[Johnny Bognor]

Surely if there is no mandate for change you stay with the status quo?

 

Not sure how this works. At what point is a mandate given? Anthing over 49.9999%?

 

If it is that close, the issues won't go away. The leavers won't go quietly and conversely the remainers will try and force the issue again, if it goes against them.

 

I see a **** storm ahead and this could go on for a number of years. Only a decisive result either way will put an end to it, but it's too close

[SO16_Saint]

There is a record number entitled to vote, which possibly favours remain, I would imagine.

 

It could quite easily be the opposite: that people have registered to vote to "take back control" - LEAVE

[John B]

Throughtout this thread I've never even attempted to predict the referendum outcome. With the polls still so incredibly close there is little point in my guessing now. So it seems then the substantial 'don't know' group will decide the issue as they sure as hell have to make their minds up today - if they bother to vote at all that is.

 

 

 

This may be the most important single day in this nation's post war history.

 

Very true but being influenced by Politicians who are economical with the truth and the Press who exaggerate and lie has not helped the decision process in my opinion

[Wes Tender]

It could quite easily be the opposite: that people have registered to vote to "take back control" - LEAVE

 

That might be the case, but my reasoning is that the older voters will already have been registered, so that it is the younger ones who have been added, persuaded by the campaign to register. Whether they actually turn out to vote is another matter, but having taken the trouble to register, it suggests that they probably will.

[CB Fry]

Not sure how this works. At what point is a mandate given? Anthing over 49.9999%?

 

If it is that close, the issues won't go away. The leavers won't go quietly and conversely the remainers will try and force the issue again, if it goes against them.

 

I see a **** storm ahead and this could go on for a number of years. Only a decisive result either way will put an end to it, but it's too close

 

I can't see how anything below 55% can be a mandate for anything.

 

55% was Scotland so that's the bench mark so that's that. Over.

 

But 52% - either way - is frankly not good enough and as you quite rightly say a sh it storm.

 

That close and the vote results will fracture - There will be MPs saying "my constituents did not vote for this result" and refusing to carry any leave/remain ratification bill through parliament. That, and some riots or something. Project fear should have been about the 51/49 result. That's where we need to be afraid.

[Johnny Bognor]

I can't see how anything below 55% can be a mandate for anything.

 

55% was Scotland so that's the bench mark so that's that. Over.

 

But 52% - either way - is frankly not good enough and as you quite rightly say a sh it storm.

 

That close and the vote results will fracture - There will be MPs saying "my constituents did not vote for this result" and refusing to carry any leave/remain ratification bill through parliament. That, and some riots or something. Project fear should have been about the 51/49 result. That's where we need to be afraid.

 

Even at 55% in Scotland, the desire to leave is still there. The SNP are just waiting for the next opportune moment to have another go. It will be the same with the EU referendum. A 55% vote for remain won't mean that the leavers will go away quietly. A 55% vote for leave won't be a mandate either. This issue is going to roll on and on. Turbulent times ahead whatever the result...

[buctootim]

Not sure how this works. At what point is a mandate given? Anthing over 49.9999%?

 

If it is that close, the issues won't go away. The leavers won't go quietly and conversely the remainers will try and force the issue again, if it goes against them.

 

I see a **** storm ahead and this could go on for a number of years. Only a decisive result either way will put an end to it, but it's too close

 

Equally you cant keep having referenda. Something would need to change to get a different result.

[moonraker]

Wont change any minds I am sure but Professor Michael Dugan analyses of the EU referendum debate is very revealing, and should have been broadcast wider. https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2016/06/22/transcript-professor-michael-dougan-eu-referendum/.

[John B]

FTSE 100 hits two-month high, pound keeps rallying

Britain’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index has just hit its highest level in two month

 

The Footsie jumped by 110 points to 6371 points, a gain of 1.5%. That’s its highest level since 21 April, before the EU referendum campaign came to the boil.

 

Betting now 5/1 for leave at Paddy Power

 

The pound has just hit a new 2016 high too, up 1.5 cents at $1.4862.

[SO16_Saint]

FTSE 100 hits two-month high, pound keeps rallying

Britain’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index has just hit its highest level in two month

 

The Footsie jumped by 110 points to 6371 points, a gain of 1.5%. That’s its highest level since 21 April, before the EU referendum campaign came to the boil.

 

Betting now 5/1 for leave at Paddy Power

 

The pound has just hit a new 2016 high too, up 1.5 cents at $1.4862.

 

So is this saying the market are expecting a REMAIN result?

[OldNick]

Not sure how this works. At what point is a mandate given? Anthing over 49.9999%?

 

If it is that close, the issues won't go away. The leavers won't go quietly and conversely the remainers will try and force the issue again, if it goes against them.

 

I see a **** storm ahead and this could go on for a number of years. Only a decisive result either way will put an end to it, but it's too close

Personally I feel there will be a conclusive vote in favour in staying at least by 10%

[Window Cleaner]

Pound creeping up, first exit polls (which of course don't exist )must be looking good for the Remain camp..

[Johnny Bognor]

Equally you cant keep having referenda. Something would need to change to get a different result.

 

General election?

[Johnny Bognor]

Wont change any minds I am sure but Professor Michael Dugan analyses of the EU referendum debate is very revealing, and should have been broadcast wider. https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2016/06/22/transcript-professor-michael-dougan-eu-referendum/.

 

Someone on the payroll not biting the hand that feeds him shocker!!!

 

EU Paid Professors...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Monnet_Programme

 

LOL he's a Monnet Chair... https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/law/staff/michael-dougan/

 

Edited 23 June, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[Window Cleaner]

So is this saying the market are expecting a REMAIN result?

 

That's obviously what the exit polls they've arranged are telling them, yes. For the time being anyway.

[buctootim]

General election?

 

Do you have another General election if the first one wasn't conclusive enough?

[CB Fry]

Even at 55% in Scotland, the desire to leave is still there. The SNP are just waiting for the next opportune moment to have another go. It will be the same with the EU referendum. A 55% vote for remain won't mean that the leavers will go away quietly. A 55% vote for leave won't be a mandate either. This issue is going to roll on and on. Turbulent times ahead whatever the result...

People will continue to complain but in Scotland that result has stuck and it is over. Sturgeon cannot go again without a significant change (EU vote might be that).

 

55% is enough of a mandate and there is precedent. Less than that and it's dicier.

[buctootim]

Graph in the FT today

 

[ScepticalStan]

So Prof John Curtice, the undisputed king of polling has his poll of polls tracker on the very last day with the very last poll tracking at......50:50.

 

Eff me. Knife edge.

 

Said it a few times but I see that as a leave win because a) turnout will support leave and far too many young Remain professionals will forget/not be arsed/stay in the pub/lose their voting card thing etc etc and will get obliterated by the stoic voting pensioner army and b) I don't buy the "people will vote for the status quo" thing. It made sense in Scotland but it doesn't here. People who haven't thought about it until this morning aren't going to instinctively vote for Europe/Germans/Brussels/Immigrants. It's a status quo with no residual value.

 

Leave will win.

 

The bookies, not the pollsters, will be proven wrong this time. Not that they'll lose a penny.

 

How much have you bet on leave then at 3/1? Not a single penny I suspect.

[moonraker]

Someone on the payroll not biting the hand that feeds him shocker!!!

 

EU Paid Professors...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Monnet_Programme

 

LOL he's a Monnet Chair... https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/law/staff/michael-dougan/

 

 

Have you listened to it, what in his lecture is untrue, false, or in any other way deceptive? The leave line of insinuating that any one with a link to the EU, Big Business or some other Remain leaning organisation are all corrupt or at best unethical is more a reflection of the character of the leave campaign and its inability to put forward any practical arguments or plans. The fact that people might actually know what they are talking about seems to be an irrelevance in the Brexit alternative universe.

[Johnny Bognor]

Have you listened to it, what in his lecture is untrue, false, or in any other way deceptive? The leave line of insinuating that any one with a link to the EU, Big Business or some other Remain leaning organisation are all corrupt or at best unethical is more a reflection of the character of the leave campaign and its inability to put forward any practical arguments or plans. The fact that people might actually know what they are talking about seems to be an irrelevance in the Brexit alternative universe.

 

You can't state "For the most part I have participated in this debate as an independent academic expert" when you are on the payroll to promote the EU. It is about as impartial as an unbaised piece by Farage as to why we should leave LOL

[CB Fry]

How much have you bet on leave then at 3/1? Not a single penny I suspect.

I've never bet on anything at all in my entire life.

 

But yeah, you've really got me there.

[moonraker]

You can't state "For the most part I have participated in this debate as an independent academic expert" when you are on the payroll to promote the EU. It is about as impartial as an unbaised piece by Farage as to why we should leave LOL

 

A fair point, but could you answer my question.

[Johnny Bognor]

A fair point, but could you answer my question.

 

It's a good point as to what a post Brexit plan would be. There isn't one as it stands, whereas for remain, it's business as usual. You could argue that initially, post brexit it would be business as usual too, until a political party takes up the reigns to carry things forward. I guess in one scenario, a future plan would be somewhat dictated to us whereas in the other scenario, we could make our own plans...

[Whitey Grandad]

Not sure how this works. At what point is a mandate given? Anthing over 49.9999%?

 

If it is that close, the issues won't go away. The leavers won't go quietly and conversely the remainers will try and force the issue again, if it goes against them.

 

I see a **** storm ahead and this could go on for a number of years. Only a decisive result either way will put an end to it, but it's too close

 

It took some time but recently I read that this referendum was only 'advisory'. Normally for significant constitutional change in any organisation you would need a 2/3 majority.

 

I think that the reason so many people are undecided and the polls are so close is that the media on the whole have been treating it like a general election where every side has to have a chance to state their position. This means that all sorts of loonies can come out and spout all sorts of nonsense (on both sides) and in the minds of the public thay have equal credence. The big difference here is that the Leavers will not have to clear up any mess that they create and won't even be in a position of power to do so.

[Saint IQ]

Wont change any minds I am sure but Professor Michael Dugan analyses of the EU referendum debate is very revealing, and should have been broadcast wider. https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2016/06/22/transcript-professor-michael-dougan-eu-referendum/.

 

What I picked up from that when I watched it yesterday is.

 

"Now that is the situation as it currently stands. What about the situation if we leave?

 

Here I have to say that the main answer is nobody has a clue. Nobody has a clue and if anybody claims that they have some detailed or precise understanding of anything that will happen really post leaving the EU then they are probably very seriously deluded."

[moonraker]

It took some time but recently I read that this referendum was only 'advisory'. Normally for significant constitutional change in any organisation you would need a 2/3 majority.

 

I think that the reason so many people are undecided and the polls are so close is that the media on the whole have been treating it like a general election where every side has to have a chance to state their position. This means that all sorts of loonies can come out and spout all sorts of nonsense (on both sides) and in the minds of the public thay have equal credence. The big difference here is that the Leavers will not have to clear up any mess that they create and won't even be in a position of power to do so.

 

You are right, the Governemnt are not constitutionaly bound by referedums, however if they choose to ignore the outcome we would really see the sparks flying.

[Window Cleaner]

It took some time but recently I read that this referendum was only 'advisory'. Normally for significant constitutional change in any organisation you would need a 2/3 majority.

 

I think that the reason so many people are undecided and the polls are so close is that the media on the whole have been treating it like a general election where every side has to have a chance to state their position. This means that all sorts of loonies can come out and spout all sorts of nonsense (on both sides) and in the minds of the public thay have equal credence. The big difference here is that the Leavers will not have to clear up any mess that they create and won't even be in a position of power to do so.

 

At the time of the adoption of the Mastricht treaty which is the base of today's EU the French voted 51.04% to 48.96% with over 3 % of the total vote being void or spoiled papers. It is still widely held that if some of the "spoiled papers" had just voted No instead of scrawling the equivalent of fùck off you commie bastard on their bulletin then the vote would have been No. Mitterand had made this his battle horse and No was an unacceptable outcome. I expect you in the UK may well see the same sort of result.

Edited 23 June, 2016 by Window Cleaner

[Whitey Grandad]

At the time of the adoption of the Mastricht treaty which is the base of today's EU the French voted 51.04% to 48.96% with over 3 % of the total vote being void or spoiled papers. It is still widely held that if some of the "spoiled papers" had just voted No instead of scrawling the equivalent of fùck off you commie bastard on their bulletin then the vote would have been No. Mitterand had made this his battle horse and No was an unacceptable outcome. I expect you in the UK may well see the same sort of result.

 

Please remind me of the turnout, and I would assume that the terms of reference were different to ours.

 

What I can't understand here is that it appears to have been called without actually telling those voting what the implications are and what exactly we are voting for. Just saying STAY or LEAVE is too simplistic for me and even now I suspect that those voting to leave are doing so for widely different motives ranging from a genuine belief that we would be better outside the EU to immigration, jingoistic pride, cost of membership, xenophobia and downright racism. For some it will be just one big protest vote even if they don't exactly know what they are protesting about. Why couldn't we also have had an associated opinion poll listing a range of possible concerns with a choice of boxes to tick?

[John B]

At the time of the adoption of the Mastricht treaty which is the base of today's EU the French voted 51.04% to 48.96% with over 3 % of the total vote being void or spoiled papers. It is still widely held that if some of the "spoiled papers" had just voted No instead of scrawling the equivalent of fùck off you commie bastard on their bulletin then the vote would have been No. Mitterand had made this his battle horse and No was an unacceptable outcome. I expect you in the UK may well see the same sort of result.

 

How can that be done here with all the cross checking carried out to see that votes cast equals the votes counted

 

Perhaps you are suggesting that some of the returning officers are corrupt but if they are the electoral clerks will know and they will be be corrupt too.

 

Having been involved with lots of political counts I just cannot see it happening in the UK because of the way things are done here

[Lord Duckhunter]

I hope Frys right , but I just can't see it . Brits are pretty conservative ( with a small c ) and I just can't see them rocking the boat and leaving . Cameron should have ****ed this , but his awful campaign and the loss of credibility of his buddy Gideon , will make it closer than it should be . Had Dave campaigned on the basis that he didn't get what he wanted but after careful thought had decided now was not the time to leave and he was a reluctant remainer , it would have been like the AV one , a shoe in for the status quo . He's made a monumental misjudgement and its deservedly cost Gideon the top job . Leave just lacked a credible spokesman from the left to win , a Tony Benn . The ironic thing is had Corbyn lost the leadership by a squeak , it would have been him and he could have won it for us .

 

It'll be close in England imo , but the rest will make the result look slightly better . The European question will not be answered and the English question will grow & grow. It's been a disaster for national unity , and the country is more politically divided than I've ever known . I'll go for 53%-47% remain

[Pamplemousse]

How can that be done here with all the cross checking carried out to see that votes cast equals the votes counted

 

Perhaps you are suggesting that some of the returning officers are corrupt but if they are the electoral clerks will know and they will be be corrupt too.

 

Having been involved with lots of political counts I just cannot see it happening in the UK because of the way things are done here

 

I agree, there are so many people involved that literally everyone in the room would have to be in on it.

[hutch]

What I picked up from that when I watched it yesterday is.

 

"Now that is the situation as it currently stands. What about the situation if we leave?

 

Here I have to say that the main answer is nobody has a clue. Nobody has a clue and if anybody claims that they have some detailed or precise understanding of anything that will happen really post leaving the EU then they are probably very seriously deluded."

The situation as it currently stands isn't one of the options to vote for. We're voting for whether we prefer a changing and unpredictable future in the EU or out of it.

[Window Cleaner]

How can that be done here with all the cross checking carried out to see that votes cast equals the votes counted

 

Perhaps you are suggesting that some of the returning officers are corrupt but if they are the electoral clerks will know and they will be be corrupt too.

 

Having been involved with lots of political counts I just cannot see it happening in the UK because of the way things are done here

 

No, it's not anything to do with corruption; It's about people not voting either yes or no by either voting nothing at all or writing some other comment on their voting slip. Do you really think that every voter is going to tamely vote either yes or no and not some other political or even deranged message? These are known as spoiled papers.

Edited 23 June, 2016 by Window Cleaner

[Window Cleaner]

Please remind me of the turnout, and I would assume that the terms of reference were different to ours.

 

What I can't understand here is that it appears to have been called without actually telling those voting what the implications are and what exactly we are voting for. Just saying STAY or LEAVE is too simplistic for me and even now I suspect that those voting to leave are doing so for widely different motives ranging from a genuine belief that we would be better outside the EU to immigration, jingoistic pride, cost of membership, xenophobia and downright racism. For some it will be just one big protest vote even if they don't exactly know what they are protesting about. Why couldn't we also have had an associated opinion poll listing a range of possible concerns with a choice of boxes to tick?

 

38 million + registered voters, 69.7% turnout giving you about 27.8 million actual voters of which a handful less than a million did not vote either yes or no but chose to enregister either some other message or deliberately put their paper into the box without having answered the question in any form. Which is what I am saying here, the margin between the two sides falls into the scope of those who went to the polls and chose not to vote as requested. I believe the spoilt papers

at the last general election exceeded those cast for certain MPs, probably in Northern Ireland.

Edited 23 June, 2016 by Window Cleaner

[Whitey Grandad]

38 million + registered voters, 69.7% turnout giving you about 27.8 million actual voters of which a handful less than a million did not vote either yes or no but chose to enregister either some other message or deliberately put their paper into the box without having answered the question in any form. Which is what I am saying here, the margin between the two sides falls into the scope of those who went to the polls and chose not to vote as requested. I believe the spoilt papers

at the last general election exceeded those cast for certain MPs, probably in Northern Ireland.

 

Yes, a million spoilt papers is quite a lot. The problem with the usual elections is that there isn't a box for 'none of the above'.

[Whitey Grandad]

The situation as it currently stands isn't one of the options to vote for. We're voting for whether we prefer a changing and unpredictable future in the EU or out of it.

 

That's not really true. If we vote to stay we have control over what will happen, or at least a veto over anything we don't like. If we leave then we will have cast our fate to the winds.

[OldNick]

been watching the stock market, it was up over 100 poits but is now creeping down to half that. Do the City think that the vote is not as expected or are they just profit taking??

[buctootim]

No, it's not anything to do with corruption; It's about people not voting either yes or no by either voting nothing at all or writing some other comment on their voting slip. Do you really think that every voter is going to tamely vote either yes or no and not some other political or even deranged message? These are known as spoiled papers.

 

afaik relatively few of the spoiled papers have "eff em all" or somesuch. Most of the time you simply cant determine what the voter intended because they left it blank, put two marks on the same paper, put a mark miles away from the boxes or ripped it up.

[Window Cleaner]

been watching the stock market, it was up over 100 poits but is now creeping down to half that. Do the City think that the vote is not as expected or are they just profit taking??

 

The big players obviously have private, and no doubt illicit, exit poll sources because there's quite a bit at stake for them. However the markets sometimes take a little dip when the NYSE opens if there's even the slightest negative influence somewhere. Me ? I'd trust the bookies not to take a hammering myself so whatever they're saying is possibly a decent indicator..

[Window Cleaner]

afaik relatively few of the spoiled papers have "eff em all" or somesuch. Most of the time you simply cant determine what the voter intended because they left it blank, put two marks on the same paper, put a mark miles away from the boxes or ripped it up.

 

Perhaps in th UK, however the French are far less reserved in their expressions on voting slips.

[hutch]

That's not really true. If we vote to stay we have control over what will happen, or at least a veto over anything we don't like. If we leave then we will have cast our fate to the winds.

How many member states will there be in the EU 5 years from now? 10 years?

[Whitey Grandad]

How many member states will there be in the EU 5 years from now? 10 years?

 

28, the same as there are now unless the vote today says otherwise and then it might be 27. In any case we have an absolute veto over any new members, unless the vote today says otherwise. So we have total control over any enlargement, unless the vote today says otherwise.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355138

[hutch]

28, the same as there are now unless the vote today says otherwise and then it might be 27. In any case we have an absolute veto over any new members, unless the vote today says otherwise. So we have total control over any enlargement, unless the vote today says otherwise.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355138

 

That's not the point. It will be different from what it is today, but nobody knows how different it will be. Some people think that is important.

[derry]

It may well be that if the vote is close to remain that it will turn UK politics on it's head. It is likely there will be a new anti EU party floated which will then incorporate the UKIP voters, Leave voters from Conservative and Labour which could give them a majority in the first past the post system in the next General Election as the remain vote would be divided on party lines. Then we will be out.

[derry]

28, the same as there are now unless the vote today says otherwise and then it might be 27. In any case we have an absolute veto over any new members, unless the vote today says otherwise. So we have total control over any enlargement, unless the vote today says otherwise.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355138

 

Presuming that the government chose to use a veto which looks as though it's not their intention. However public opinion might well turn that on it's head. If we are out the EU may well have it's own problems.

[buctootim]

That's not the point. It will be different from what it is today, but nobody knows how different it will be. Some people think that is important.

 

So a set of circumstances we have control over is more risky than the total unknown?

[Whitey Grandad]

That's not the point. It will be different from what it is today, but nobody knows how different it will be. Some people think that is important.

 

That's not what you asked.

 

Presuming that the government chose to use a veto which looks as though it's not their intention. However public opinion might well turn that on it's head. If we are out the EU may well have it's own problems.

 

This is our government over which we do have total sovereignty is it?

 

I can't follow these arguments. 'Leave the EU to take back control' because we don't actually have any control at the moment? Or do we only have any control over our own government if we leave the EU?

[hutch]

That's not what you asked.

 

Let me repeat my original comment because you seem to have wandered a bit

 

The situation as it currently stands isn't one of the options to vote for. We're voting for whether we prefer a changing and unpredictable future in the EU or out of it.