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EU referendum


Wade Garrett

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That would be the same FTSE that dropped like a stone when we finally left the exchange rate mechanism.

 

And what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

 

Personally I think that not joining the Euro was one big missed opportunity but that ship has sailed.

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The FTSE fell by 400 points from around June 9/10, coinciding with a slew of polls putting leave ahead, planting uncertainty in investors minds. Even the notoriously insular Federal Reserve mentioned brexit uncertainty as a factor in not putting up US interest rates which in other circumstances would be a good thing for markets.

 

Yesterday's rebound and rise in the sterling -the biggest one-day gain in 7 years- has been widely attributed to the belief over the weekend that notwithstanding leave's recent momentum remain will pip it.

 

So yes pal it has had an effect. Of course, were leave to actually win it, the effects would make recent volatility look like a few ripples on a summer's lake. Even brexiters don't deny otherwise.

 

What were the slew of polls on the 9th/10th June? On those dates the BBCs poll of polls had remain ahead and pulling away. There were two polls on the 10th, Yougov had leave one point ahead, Opinion had remain two ahead.

 

The polls are always wrong anyway, plus the margins so small, surely any slight shift either way would not have investors dumping shares. Sounds like more made up Cameron ****** to me.

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What were the slew of polls on the 9th/10th June? On those dates the BBCs poll of polls had remain ahead and pulling away. There were two polls on the 10th, Yougov had leave one point ahead, Opinion had remain two ahead.

 

The polls are always wrong anyway, plus the margins so small, surely any slight shift either way would not have investors dumping shares. Sounds like more made up Cameron ****** to me.

 

I said from around June 9/10. If you don't think the momentum has been with the Leave campaign, you've had your head buried in the sand.

 

The Brexit poll tracker speaks volumes, showing Leave overtaking Remain for the first time over this period.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

Edited by shurlock
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I said from around June 9/10. If you don't think the momentum has been with the Leave campaign to the point where it overtook remain, you've had your head buried in the sand.

 

The Brexit poll tracker speaks volumes.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

 

Seems pretty random to me. No surprise people with agendas try and connect the two though.

 

If you look at the bookies odds they have always made remain much more likely.

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The ITN news tonight had a big piece featuring Cameron.

 

It was if the Leave campaign didn't happen today.

 

An absolute disgrace. Peston has probably still got Cameron's cum round his mouth.

 

I didn't see the ITV News, but I'm assuming that there was not a mention about the rioting in Calais. No doubt it will return to the headlines on the 24th.

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Seems pretty random to me. No surprise people with agendas try and connect the two though.

 

If you look at the bookies odds they have always made remain much more likely.

 

Virtually every professional investor has linked recent market volatility to the rising fear of brexit; but heigh ho they all have agendas.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/14/ftse-100-slides-towards-6000-and-pound-falls-as-brexit-fears-dri/

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Virtually every professional investor has linked recent market volatility to the rising fear of brexit; but heigh ho they all have agendas.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/14/ftse-100-slides-towards-6000-and-pound-falls-as-brexit-fears-dri/

 

It's just uncertainty they don't like. Most of those ****s banging on about how bad it will be are probably going to make a fortune the day after remain wins.

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Cant believe so many people want to live under a undemocratic system and believe all the guff that comes out of Cameron and Osborne, as well as all those millionaires such as Bob Geldof.

 

Yet presumably you are willing to believe all the guff coming from Farage, BoJo, Gove, and IDS.

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Rest assured that there is no need to inform me that I am not your "pal".

 

With what I have come to recognise as a typical degree of duplicity, I see you are now implying that forecasts of economic turmoil and decline that may well lay ahead for the UK economy originate from politicians, when every man (and his dog) on here knows that virtualy every serious economist predicts this and they are supported in that assessment by the majority of our business leaders. This is beyond clear now. Your only reply to this key point is to endlessly parrot deeply unconvincing Vote Leave accusations of corruption and/or incompetence against all those who disagree with their view. How very convenient.

 

As for your blithe assumption that the UK can somehow quickly and easily form new trading arrangments with other nation states this attitude betrays your abysmally poor understanding of the complexity of the issue. More significantly, this also flies in the face of authoritative advice offered to the British people recently by the head of the World Trade Organisation :

 

https://next.ft.com/content/745d0ea2-222d-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d

 

But if you can provide any reason at all why people should take your word for it ahead of the WTO's Roberto Azevêdo then by all means give it a go. Indeed, I can hardly wait ...

 

It's not every serious economist or as is regularly quoted 90% it is about 15% as of 4000 economists canvassed, 3400 declined to commit and about 540 out of 600 that committed supported remain. In fact 540 out of about 4000 not the same at all. Of the 3400, presumably there is a variation in views supporting both sides.

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It's not every serious economist or as is regularly quoted 90% it is about 15% as of 4000 economists canvassed, 3400 declined to commit and about 540 out of 600 that committed supported remain. In fact 540 out of about 4000 not the same at all. Of the 3400, presumably there is a variation in views supporting both sides.

 

Well to be fair to myself I was careful to say VIRTUALLY every economist did I not?

 

And then you have to consider not just the large number of economists supporting the Remain case, but also the international standing of these professionals too. I'll do my best to avoid a long list of acronyms here, but the fact of the matter is that the OECD, The World Bank, HM Treasury, US Treasury Department officials, the International Monetery Fund, the London School of Economics, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research and indeed many others have all conclude that Brexit risks damaging our and the world economy to some extent. These organisations are I think widely regarded as reputable ones among those who know what they are talking about.

 

Naturaly, you can always find someone who will disagree with almost anything. However, it is hard to imagine a more complete consenus of expert economic opinion ever be formed.

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A fact is that this referendum will be decided by those who vote and more importantly by which side gets it's voters to vote. Purely as an aside, a friend has a residential university cleaning contract and told me today that although the students had gone their rooms were littered with polling cards/unused postal vote forms left behind. Presumably none of these students will now vote.

 

It may well be that many that are agonising over the minutiae, will as I heard expressed on a radio program by one such person, probably abstain. I just think that the vote is pretty much cast in stone already and awaits Thursday. The politicians could really pack up and go on holiday, nobody is listening.

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Well to be fair to myself I was careful to say VIRTUALLY every economist did I not?

 

And then you have to consider not just the large number of economists supporting the Remain case, but also the international standing of these professionals too. I'll do my best to avoid a long list of acronyms here, but the fact of the matter is that the OECD, The World Bank, HM Treasury, US Treasury Department officials, the International Monetery Fund, the London School of Economics, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research and indeed many others have all conclude that Brexit risks damaging our and the world economy to some extent. These organisations are I think widely regarded as reputable ones among those who know what they are talking about.

 

Naturaly, you can always find someone who will disagree with almost anything. However, it is hard to imagine a more complete consenus of expert economic opinion ever be formed.

 

And their records are so impeccable that we have to believe them. All these organisations in the past have been disastrously wrong in all sorts of predictions and forecasts over the years.

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Apart from that Andrea woman and Ruth none are any good out of this lot. Khan and TUC bird just losing their rag too quickly.

 

Boris looks less Prime Ministerly with every appearance. Gisela is just dull and demonstrates why I'd never heard of her before about six weeks ago.

Edited by CB Fry
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And their records are so impeccable that we have to believe them. All these organisations in the past have been disastrously wrong in all sorts of predictions and forecasts over the years.

 

Yes this is the standard Leave campaign reply to all economic critism - it has been trotted out more times than Steptoe's horse. It makes very little sense of course for the reasons I have put forward on here several times already.

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Apart from that Andrea woman and Ruth none are any good out of this lot. Khan and TUC bird just losing their rag too quickly.

 

Boris looks less Prime Ministerly with every appearance. Gisela is just dull and demonstrates why I'd never heard of her before about six weeks ago.

Personally I think Khan comes across well. They should have uses him earlier. The TUC bird is awful though.

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Apart from that Andrea woman and Ruth none are any good out of this lot. Khan and TUC bird just losing their rag too quickly.

 

Boris looks less Prime Ministerly with every appearance. Gisela is just dull and demonstrates why I'd never heard of her before about six weeks ago.

 

Andrea looks like she hides a shady past of wife-swapping.

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These debates will get worse over the years. Clapping seals in the audience, people responding aggressively on Twitter and then there is the "spin room"

 

Can't wait till friday

 

Dont worry Tony Parsons is going to save proceedings

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Apart from that Andrea woman and Ruth none are any good out of this lot. Khan and TUC bird just losing their rag too quickly.

 

Boris looks less Prime Ministerly with every appearance. Gisela is just dull and demonstrates why I'd never heard of her before about six weeks ago.

 

Ruth is quality, if she'd been leading the Remain campaign it would win by miles. More clarity from her than we've heard for the rest of this sorry campaign. Sarah Wollaston is a dagger in Leave's heart, started in their camp but appalled by Boris, Farage and Matthew Elliott. Local MP and decent egg. Khan and Andrea alright but others awful and Boris dripping wet cloth, very poor. Gisla terrible, TUC speaker bordering on hysterical.

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They should have put the very capable and engaging Caroline lucas on the main stage instead of the frankly awful TUC woman.

 

I agree, TUC rep making my ears hurt although she made a good point at job losses not being patriotic although the shrillness lost the sharpness. Ruth bossing this debate. Caroline Lucas always speaks well.

 

Ruth demolishing Boris again. Now Andrea gets it and not looking so smug now either. Gisela going about Turkey again....:

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I think we watch this type of programmes and see what we want to see. So the impression I'm getting here that Remain are getting their point across better is surely unreliable. Nevertheless that is how it seems to me.

 

That Ruth women is a bit of a star methinks.

 

Probably why she is making gains against the SNP in Scotland

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