EU referendum

[buctootim]

just pouring scorn on these so called 'expert' views. i am on the fence as it happens. good arguments to stay on some issues like economics, good reasons to leave on other issues.

 

The whole EU will look very different in three years time anyway imo. There is no way the EU is going to end up as a superstate from Sweden to Ksovo, from Ireland to Turkey.

[Wade Garrett]

Judging by his performance this morning, it doesn't take a genius to work out where Andrew Marr stands on the big question.

 

i thought he was a disgrace.

[Verbal]

Monetary union without fiscal Union can never work , that fact will never change .

 

Never? Have you never been to the US and travelled across state lines?

[hutch]

The whole EU will look very different in three years time anyway imo. There is no way the EU is going to end up as a superstate from Sweden to Ksovo, from Ireland to Turkey.

So a bit of a leap into the dark then, staying in?

[Lord Duckhunter]

Never? Have you never been to the US and travelled across state lines?

 

The United States is a fiscal Union

[Verbal]

The United States is a fiscal Union

 

Only for federal taxes, not for state taxes, which often form the bulk of an individual's tax burden (property taxes, sales tax, etc). And federal taxes are only deducted after all state and local taxes, meaning many, many people pay little or no federal taxes. So it makes a huge amount of difference if you live in tax-heavy Massachusetts, for example, compared with the tax-haven state of Delaware. These variations in tax regimes can be at least as significant as between, say, Britain and Spain.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Only for federal taxes, not for state taxes, which often form the bulk of an individual's tax burden (property taxes, sales tax, etc). And federal taxes are only deducted after all state and local taxes, meaning many, many people pay little or no federal taxes. So it makes a huge amount of difference if you live in tax-heavy Massachusetts, for example, compared with the tax-haven state of Delaware. These variations in tax regimes can be at least as significant as between, say, Britain and Spain.

 

Do you understand what a fiscal Union is ?

[buctootim]

So a bit of a leap into the dark then, staying in?

 

More of a wander round the shops looking at what the options are - instead of leaving the shop and sitting in the carpark by youself.

[hutch]

More of a wander round the shops looking at what the options are - instead of leaving the shop and sitting in the carpark by youself.

No need to do that any more Timmy. As you well know, you can do all your shopping on-line these days.

 

You'll find something to suit every occasion, delivered right to your door. Unfortunately, you'll find some of the stuff you buy on-line is actually fake. But you can just bluff it out and hope that nobody notices.

[buctootim]

No need to do that any more Timmy. As you well know, you can do all your shopping on-line these days.

 

You'll find something to suit every occasion, delivered right to your door. Unfortunately, you'll find some of the stuff you buy on-line is actually fake. But you can just bluff it out and hope that nobody notices.

 

You haven't really got the hang of analogies have you?

[Wes Tender]

Its like ditching your wife / girlfriend / job / house for a new one promised to you by Michael Gove that he says will be better. Obviously Gove himself hasn't seen the new wife / girlfriend / job / house yet either - but he's sure its going to be great. Convinced?

 

Very fond of an analogy is our Timmy. Here is an earlier one featuring that well known Human Resources Manager/Estate Agent/Online Dating site owner Michael Gove.

 

No, I haven't got the hang of his analogies either.

[Wes Tender]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/map-eu-europe-tory-party-conservatives-split-divided-two-a6892611.html

 

Nice to see that a large majority of our local MPs are for Brexit.

[Batman]

So, trump is a **** but in our own version of the USA....

 

Walls are being put up to keep migrants out

 

Right wing movements are in the rise

 

Complete lack of policy on immigration

[Nolan]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/map-eu-europe-tory-party-conservatives-split-divided-two-a6892611.html

 

Nice to see that a large majority of our local MPs are for Brexit.

From conservative home

 

To date, we have 162 Tory MPs for Remain, and 126 for Leave.

 

Of the 162 for Remain, 87 are on the payroll and 75 are not.

 

Of the 126 for Leave, 30 are on the payroll and 96 are not.

[buctootim]

From conservative home

 

To date, we have 162 Tory MPs for Remain, and 126 for Leave.

 

Of the 162 for Remain, 87 are on the payroll and 75 are not.

 

Of the 126 for Leave, 30 are on the payroll and 96 are not.

 

So most of the MPs sharp enough to be ministers are backing staying in, and the resentful dullards who are hoping for better prospects under Boris are voting out. Got it.

[Wes Tender]

So most of the MPs sharp enough to be ministers are backing staying in, and the resentful dullards who are hoping for better prospects under Boris are voting out. Got it.

 

A typical conclusion from you, following your formulaic position; stay = sharp, leave = dullard. Most sensible people would conclude the possibility that those on the payroll have a vested interest for voting stay, because they are yes men, part of the Establishment gravy train. But no doubt it will be useful reminding you in the future when you are critical of a government minister over policy in some other area that their position holds sway over the opinions of any non-shadow minister, who must by definition be a resentful dullard. And what of Corbyn? For years the resentful backbench dullard, but now all of a sudden he must be a really sharp cookie to be leader of Her Majesty's Opposition.

[buctootim]

A typical conclusion from you, following your formulaic position; stay = sharp, leave = dullard. Most sensible people would conclude the possibility that those on the payroll have a vested interest for voting stay, because they are yes men, part of the Establishment gravy train. But no doubt it will be useful reminding you in the future when you are critical of a government minister over policy in some other area that their position holds sway over the opinions of any non-shadow minister, who must by definition be a resentful dullard. And what of Corbyn? For years the resentful backbench dullard, but now all of a sudden he must be a really sharp cookie to be leader of Her Majesty's Opposition.

 

A typical conclusion from you, grey, humourless, dull.

[Wes Tender]

A typical conclusion from you, grey, humourless, dull.

 

Go on, brighten the mood with one of your analogies

[Whitey Grandad]

A typical conclusion from you, following your formulaic position; stay = sharp, leave = dullard. Most sensible people would conclude the possibility that those on the payroll have a vested interest for voting stay, because they are yes men, part of the Establishment gravy train. But no doubt it will be useful reminding you in the future when you are critical of a government minister over policy in some other area that their position holds sway over the opinions of any non-shadow minister, who must by definition be a resentful dullard. And what of Corbyn? For years the resentful backbench dullard, but now all of a sudden he must be a really sharp cookie to be leader of Her Majesty's Opposition.

 

And what does that make Farage? Wouldn't an OUT vote lead to him losing his job?

[Wes Tender]

And what does that make Farage? Wouldn't an OUT vote lead to him losing his job?

 

I'm pretty sure if you were to ask him whether losing his job on the European gravy train was a price worth paying for us leaving the EU, that he would say yes, a hundred times yes.

[hutch]

And what does that make Farage? Wouldn't an OUT vote lead to him losing his job?

 

Win-win

[Whitey Grandad]

I'm pretty sure if you were to ask him whether losing his job on the European gravy train was a price worth paying for us leaving the EU, that he would say yes, a hundred times yes.

 

Then why does he continue to stand for election?

[moonraker]

In the absence of any realism from the out campaign what are the facts and likely outcomes of an in or out vote:

STAYING IN

• Guaranteed access to EU free market for all goods and services.

• Freedom of movement for all EU citizens across the EU.

• A say in the EU policy and decision making process.

• Cross border medical cover remains.

• We make contributions to the running of the EU circa £18m / day.

• Better relationships with neighbours, friends and collaborators. More influence globally.

• Scotland much less likely to have second referendum.

• No drastic change to UK Government policies, they can get on with the day job of running the country.

• No cost to the UK Government (i.e. the taxpayer) business as usual.

• If the EU does move towards unacceptable political union we can have another referendum, very likely other countries would want one as well.

LEAVING THE EU

• No free market and scope of any deal likely to be reduced.

• Free movement unknown, all previous non members who have trade deals have to accept this

• Policy and decision making no say.

• Reduced or no cross border medical arrangements, would not be part of a trade deal.

• We will still make contributions to the running of the EU, cost unknown but precedence says at least £18m / day.

• Likely we will have an extended period of frosty relationships across the EU with the UK lower on the priority list of major world powers.

• Scotland has second independence referendum and leaves the UK.

• Massive distraction from the Governments day job, negotiating exit terms and renegotiating deals. Domestic policy suffers, most likely to impacts on NHS, education and welfare.

• Potential high cost due to renegotiating and EU states being more reluctant to deal with UK until trade deal is agreed, trade decreases, unemployment rises.

• Highly unlikely we could get back in and certainly not on the current favourable terms,: no Euro, Maggie’s Rebate. If we leave that’s it.

The following are not facts, they are straws to clutch at.

• The EU will definitely become a European super state.

• Net migration will fall dramatically.

• The UK will be more resilient to terrorist attack.

• We hold all the cards.

• The EU will treat us differently to other non EU states.

[hutch]

In the absence of any realism from the out campaign what are the facts and likely outcomes of an in or out vote:

STAYING IN

• Guaranteed access to EU free market for all goods and services.

• Freedom of movement for all EU citizens across the EU.

• A say in the EU policy and decision making process.

• Cross border medical cover remains.

• We make contributions to the running of the EU circa £18m / day.

• Better relationships with neighbours, friends and collaborators. More influence globally.

• Scotland much less likely to have second referendum.

• No drastic change to UK Government policies, they can get on with the day job of running the country.

• No cost to the UK Government (i.e. the taxpayer) business as usual.

• If the EU does move towards unacceptable political union we can have another referendum, very likely other countries would want one as well.

LEAVING THE EU

• No free market and scope of any deal likely to be reduced.

• Free movement unknown, all previous non members who have trade deals have to accept this

• Policy and decision making no say.

• Reduced or no cross border medical arrangements, would not be part of a trade deal.

• We will still make contributions to the running of the EU, cost unknown but precedence says at least £18m / day.

• Likely we will have an extended period of frosty relationships across the EU with the UK lower on the priority list of major world powers.

• Scotland has second independence referendum and leaves the UK.

• Massive distraction from the Governments day job, negotiating exit terms and renegotiating deals. Domestic policy suffers, most likely to impacts on NHS, education and welfare.

• Potential high cost due to renegotiating and EU states being more reluctant to deal with UK until trade deal is agreed, trade decreases, unemployment rises.

• Highly unlikely we could get back in and certainly not on the current favourable terms,: no Euro, Maggie’s Rebate. If we leave that’s it.

The following are not facts, they are straws to clutch at.

• The EU will definitely become a European super state.

• Net migration will fall dramatically.

• The UK will be more resilient to terrorist attack.

• We hold all the cards.

• The EU will treat us differently to other non EU states.

 

Help me out here because I'm struggling, but which of your bullets under the LEAVING THE EU heading are facts?

[moonraker]

Help me out here because I'm struggling, but which of your bullets under the LEAVING THE EU heading are facts?

My opening sentence says facts or likely outcomes. The great issue with out is the unknown, therefore their are few if any hard facts the out campaign can deploy. All I have heard and read from out is hopeful scenarios that always tend towards a favourable outcome for the UK. I acknowledge that some outcomes may be satisfactory but many are wishful thinking with no timescale. The campaign can be characterised as the known v the unknown (not fear v freedom), in the current geo political environment I choose the known. But to answer your question exactly the following are facts: Policy and decision making no say, if we went back in we would have to have the Euro and no Maggie’s Rebate, (Free movement unknown), all previous non members who have trade deals have to accept this, the price of a trade deal means we will still make contributions to the running of the EU. The rest I consider highly likely.

[Wes Tender]

Here is an interesting article which covers facets of both WG's question of what happens to Nigel Farage if we voted for Brexit, but also covers a lot of arguments that run counter to the doom and gloom fear scenario that Moonraker attempts to disguise as facts or likely outcome.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/david-bannerman-mep/eu-referendum-brexit_b_9346348.html

[Wes Tender]

• If the EU does move towards unacceptable political union we can have another referendum, very likely other countries would want one as well.

.

 

Yes, we can. It will probably only take 24 years to arrange, just as it did after we moved towards unacceptable political union the last time.

[Verbal]

Here is an interesting article which covers facets of both WG's question of what happens to Nigel Farage if we voted for Brexit, but also covers a lot of arguments that run counter to the doom and gloom fear scenario that Moonraker attempts to disguise as facts or likely outcome.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/david-bannerman-mep/eu-referendum-brexit_b_9346348.html

 

Is it possible you could source some actual independent research on this, rather than the naive ravings of a swivel-eyed buffoon? There are some of us who would in principle be willing to be persuaded by an articulate, well-evidenced Brexit argument. But the more this kind of thing gets posted the more hopeless the Brexit position looks.

[TwoPints]

Here is an interesting article which covers facets of both WG's question of what happens to Nigel Farage if we voted for Brexit, but also covers a lot of arguments that run counter to the doom and gloom fear scenario that Moonraker attempts to disguise as facts or likely outcome.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/david-bannerman-mep/eu-referendum-brexit_b_9346348.html

Shame we wouldn't get the benefit of such a wonderful trade agreement with Canada if we left the EU.

[TwoPints]

I'll just leave this here:

 

https://youtu.be/0UZgENcr3Q0

[moonraker]

Is it possible you could source some actual independent research on this, rather than the naive ravings of a swivel-eyed buffoon? There are some of us who would in principle be willing to be persuaded by an articulate, well-evidenced Brexit argument. But the more this kind of thing gets posted the more hopeless the Brexit position looks.

 

You saved me the trouble thanks.

[Wes Tender]

Is it possible you could source some actual independent research on this, rather than the naive ravings of a swivel-eyed buffoon? There are some of us who would in principle be willing to be persuaded by an articulate, well-evidenced Brexit argument. But the more this kind of thing gets posted the more hopeless the Brexit position looks.

 

I reiterate; there is little in the way of facts coming from the stay campaign. It is mostly fear, conjecture, opinion. They have no more firm evidence of what our position in the World would be than we have of what the EU would look like in five years time if we stayed, especially if the likes of Turkey were allowed to join. Additionally a stay vote would be seen as a mandate to the EU to continue its relentless march towards a federal Europe. There is no independent research that can accurately forecast the outcome of our leaving, as it is an unprecedented situation, and you are naive to think that there could be.

 

I would like to see you post some links to "independent" well-evidenced arguments that support our staying in the EU

 

I don't accept for one second that you are open to persuasion to leave the EU, evidenced by your preponderance to calling anybody who advocates leaving a "swivel-eyed buffoon. But I find it encouraging that at least you are not rubbishing the leave position in terms of such absolute certainty as you did when you assured me that there no way that the swivel-eyed buffoon Corbyn would be elected leader of the Labour Party.

[Whitey Grandad]

I reiterate; there is little in the way of facts coming from the stay campaign. It is mostly fear, conjecture, opinion. They have no more firm evidence of what our position in the World would be than we have of what the EU would look like in five years time if we stayed, especially if the likes of Turkey were allowed to join. Additionally a stay vote would be seen as a mandate to the EU to continue its relentless march towards a federal Europe. There is no independent research that can accurately forecast the outcome of our leaving, as it is an unprecedented situation, and you are naive to think that there could be.

 

I would like to see you post some links to "independent" well-evidenced arguments that support our staying in the EU

 

I don't accept for one second that you are open to persuasion to leave the EU, evidenced by your preponderance to calling anybody who advocates leaving a "swivel-eyed buffoon. But I find it encouraging that at least you are not rubbishing the leave position in terms of such absolute certainty as you did when you assured me that there no way that the swivel-eyed buffoon Corbyn would be elected leader of the Labour Party.

 

Turkey will not be joining. There's one fact.

[Wes Tender]

Shame we wouldn't get the benefit of such a wonderful trade agreement with Canada if we left the EU.

 

Why wouldn't we?

 

http://www.canadainternational.gc.ca/united_kingdom-royaume_uni/bilateral_relations_bilaterales/commercial-commerciales.aspx?lang=eng

[Whitey Grandad]

Why wouldn't we?

 

http://www.canadainternational.gc.ca/united_kingdom-royaume_uni/bilateral_relations_bilaterales/commercial-commerciales.aspx?lang=eng

 

That refers to a CETA between Canada and the EU.

[Wes Tender]

Turkey will not be joining. There's one fact.

 

Five years ago there was no refugee crisis coming out of the Middle East, no ISIS, no mass economic migration here from Bulgaria and Romania. Five years is a long time in European and indeed World politics and it was worrying that Merkel was bargaining with the Turkish President over reducing Turkey's wait to join the EU in return for their help in stemming the flow of refugees through Turkey.

[solentstars]

Turkey will not be joining. There's one fact.

agree they have been trying since 1959 to join and have associate membership which give them accesss to the eu,those saying it our just doing wishful thinking and don,t study the history which is available online.

[Whitey Grandad]

Five years ago there was no refugee crisis coming out of the Middle East, no ISIS, no mass economic migration here from Bulgaria and Romania. Five years is a long time in European and indeed World politics and it was worrying that Merkel was bargaining with the Turkish President over reducing Turkey's wait to join the EU in return for their help in stemming the flow of refugees through Turkey.

 

It would require a unanimous vote amongst all existing members. Any one can veto.

[melmacian_saint]

Five years ago there was no refugee crisis coming out of the Middle East, no ISIS, no mass economic migration here from Bulgaria and Romania. Five years is a long time in European and indeed World politics and it was worrying that Merkel was bargaining with the Turkish President over reducing Turkey's wait to join the EU in return for their help in stemming the flow of refugees through Turkey.

 

It was very telling of the future of the EU to see Merkel sitting at a throne in Istanbul alongside that traitor Erdogan, speaking in the name of the whole of the EU but with a German flag on the table next to the Turkish one. As it was to see the leader of its coalition partners visit Putin.

 

Even more telling when you see Greece, bankrupt and demonized beyond reasonability, being given deadlines to sort out the longest, maritime yet continental border but Turkey, a powerful economy, is given €3bn with no guarantee of implementation other than expelling refugees in its camps using rubber bullets.

 

If the UK leaves, the EU will turn to Moscow and Istanbul. Groups, ethnicities and nationalities will be prioritized over others and there will be tears like always. Europe's only hope may be that Russia, like in the past, turns their back on the other two.

[ecuk268]

Help me out here because I'm struggling, but which of your bullets under the LEAVING THE EU heading are facts?

 

That's the problem. No one knows.

 

We had Boris saying that a No vote would trigger further renegotiations and a 2nd referendum. Then he changed his mind and said that it wouldn't happen. But, on Sunday, Michael Howard said that it would.

[hypochondriac]

That's the problem. No one knows.

 

We had Boris saying that a No vote would trigger further renegotiations and a 2nd referendum. Then he changed his mind and said that it wouldn't happen. But, on Sunday, Michael Howard said that it would.

 

The nature of this thing means that it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty what will happen but that doesn't necessarily make the status quo the preferable option.

[Wes Tender]

The nature of this thing means that it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty what will happen but that doesn't necessarily make the status quo the preferable option.

 

Exactly. Just because the remain camp can point to the recent past and claim that the EU is the devil you know, they cannot claim that the future is also assured to be more of the same. Events during the past five years prove that the next five can be just as if not more unpredictable.

[moonraker]

Exactly. Just because the remain camp can point to the recent past and claim that the EU is the devil you know, they cannot claim that the future is also assured to be more of the same. Events during the past five years prove that the next five can be just as if not more unpredictable.

The old saying there is safety in numbers seems to fit the bill then.

[buctootim]

that doesn't necessarily make the status quo the preferable option.

 

It doesn't - but if you are going to ditch the status quo then you have to at least think that on the balance of probability things will be better. I honestly cannot see any realistic outcome whereby we leave and dont end up economically worse off than before. So for me it becomes 'do the political advantages of leaving outweigh the economic losses?' - which could range from mild to severe.

 

On immigration / freedom of movement its moot tending a bit towards the negative but not by much once you consider the British expats. On the rest some of the best legislation in Britain has come about in the EU or European countries and initially been resisted in the UK - environmental standards in farming, car crash standards, food and chemical safety, maximum working hours, food labelling, energy efficiency labelling etc. The case for leaving would have to be a lot more compelling than it currently is.

Edited 2 March, 2016 by buctootim

[Wes Tender]

It doesn't - but if you are going to ditch the status quo then you have to at least think that on the balance of probability things will be better. I honestly cannot see any realistic outcome whereby we leave and dont end up economically worse off than before. So for me it becomes 'do the political advantages of leaving outweigh the economic losses?' - which could range from mild to severe.

 

On immigration / freedom of movement its moot tending a bit towards the negative but not by much once you consider the British expats. On the rest some of the best legislation in Britain has come about in the EU or European countries and initially been resisted in the UK - environmental standards in farming, car crash standards, food and chemical safety, maximum working hours, food labelling, energy efficiency labelling etc. The case for leaving would have to be a lot more compelling than it currently is.

 

Here are some very compelling and cogent argument by an economist explaining why we would be better off outside the EU economically. I await your counter-arguments explaining where he has got it all wrong.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/29/brexit-scares-over-jobs-and-investment-are-simple-fallacies/

[moonraker]

Here are some very compelling and cogent argument by an economist explaining why we would be better off outside the EU economically. I await your counter-arguments explaining where he has got it all wrong.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/29/brexit-scares-over-jobs-and-investment-are-simple-fallacies/

Minford is a long term outer, this is not new.

[moonraker]

Here are some very compelling and cogent argument by an economist explaining why we would be better off outside the EU economically. I await your counter-arguments explaining where he has got it all wrong.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/29/brexit-scares-over-jobs-and-investment-are-simple-fallacies/

 

I raise you the FT artiucle which states "British membership of a reformed EU is vital to Britain’s economic security is today backed by an overwhelming majority of economists in an annual Financial Times survey." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/38e77ce4-b217-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f.html#axzz41jgIML94

[buctootim]

Here are some very compelling and cogent argument by an economist explaining why we would be better off outside the EU economically. I await your counter-arguments explaining where he has got it all wrong.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/29/brexit-scares-over-jobs-and-investment-are-simple-fallacies/

 

I saw the link to a standard moan about the EU by a long standing eurosceptic but missed the plan - what he suggests we do instead. It always seems to be that part which is missing. Is there a page 2?

[Lord Duckhunter]

car crash standards, food and chemical safety, maximum working hours, food labelling, energy efficiency labelling etc. The case for leaving would have to be a lot more compelling than it currently is.

 

How do Australia, Canada, New Zealand & other countries manage without the wonderful EU to make sure their cars are safe, their food is labelled properly and their appliances efficiency labelled . Their citizens must be at risk of food poisoning daily & their roads death traps.They probably all work 80 hour weeks. I bet they wish they had Poland & Romania keeping them safe at night . What mugs legislating their own laws .

[buctootim]

How do Australia, Canada, New Zealand & other countries manage without the wonderful EU to make sure their cars are safe, their food is labelled properly and their appliances efficiency labelled . Their citizens must be at risk of food poisoning daily & their roads death traps.They probably all work 80 hour weeks. I bet they wish they had Poland & Romania keeping them safe at night . What mugs legislating their own laws .

 

I didnt say it cant be done by Britain, Im saying it isnt. On most issues Conservative governments have a long track record of siding with industry lobbies rather than the consumer or employee.