GarrettIvo Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 From ESPN, which I am sure a lot of you wouldn't give two hoots about anyway. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/three-flagrant-but-true-premier-league-statements-anthony-martial-is-making-manchester-magical/ But there's some solid praise for our system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr X Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 From ESPN, which I am sure a lot of you wouldn't give two hoots about anyway. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/three-flagrant-but-true-premier-league-statements-anthony-martial-is-making-manchester-magical/ But there's some solid praise for our system. This ones more interesting on our five game free fall last season & the reasons why! http://grantland.com/the-triangle/premier-league-southampton-slump-ronald-koeman/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 From ESPN, which I am sure a lot of you wouldn't give two hoots about anyway. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/three-flagrant-but-true-premier-league-statements-anthony-martial-is-making-manchester-magical/ But there's some solid praise for our system. I like THIS paragraph - even though I haven't read the "luck" article yet. "By multiple expected-goals models, they should’ve been in the Champions League. Instead, thanks to a second-half stretch of really horrible luck, they finished the season in seventh. There’s always an upstart that falls off in the second half, sure, and Southampton fit within that broad description, but not because of their performance: They played well enough to be in the riches of the top four." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GarrettIvo Posted 29 September, 2015 Author Share Posted 29 September, 2015 This ones more interesting on our five game free fall last season & the reasons why! http://grantland.com/the-triangle/premier-league-southampton-slump-ronald-koeman/ Read that at the time. And again since. I still agree with it. We weren't anywhere near as bad as some on here thought we were at the end of last season. We had faults certainly, but a lot things didn't run our way as much as they could have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 Well, here's the "luck" element of why we dropped off last winter/spring: "Southampton, who have dropped to sixth in the table after sitting in third as recently as last month. Four points from five games, including losses to West Bromwich Albion and Swansea and a draw against West Ham, will do that to a team.": "Southampton have certainly benefited from converting more than their fair share of chances. Before the current five-game skid, 13.2 percent of their shots turned into goals — third behind Chelsea and Manchester United. For comparison, league average is a flat 10 percent.1 And while it’d be natural for Southampton to slide back toward that 10 percent rate, over the last five games it’s been a total free fall: The Saints have finished 1.3 percent of their chances, one goal from 77 shots and by far the worst rate in the league, during that span. Anemic Aston Villa are second-worst at 4.5 percent: two goals from 44 shots. What’s astounding, though, isn’t just the number of shots that haven’t gone in, but how many on-target shots have been turned away. Southampton’s one goal is a result of 23 shots on frame, a 4.3 percent rate. Again, Aston Villa are second-worst with two goals from 12 shots on frame, which, at 16.7 percent, is almost four times better than Southampton." As I've said before, the "luck" element of football is significant, but a lot of that is because everything that analytics hasn't grabbed hold of and turned inside out is part of the nebulous mass of "luck" - a high shot conversion rate becoming a low shot conversion rate could be anything, but calling it just "luck" is a little disingenous. It also doesn't say anything about our general crapness in April/May's away matches which was the ultimate issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Biscuits Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 Tbh the comment from a while back about us being 'reffed' out of the top four makes the most sense. However we have enough in the squad to remain in the PL this season. It's what RK does to see how far we can push that matters. I'd quite like a cup run this season, no reason for us not to go on one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GarrettIvo Posted 29 September, 2015 Author Share Posted 29 September, 2015 I like THIS paragraph - even though I haven't read the "luck" article yet. "By multiple expected-goals models, they should’ve been in the Champions League. Instead, thanks to a second-half stretch of really horrible luck, they finished the season in seventh. There’s always an upstart that falls off in the second half, sure, and Southampton fit within that broad description, but not because of their performance: They played well enough to be in the riches of the top four." So, regardless of where the club finished in the table, it seems like it’s time to say it: Southampton is just better at this than everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 Read that at the time. And again since. I still agree with it. We weren't anywhere near as bad as some on here thought we were at the end of last season. We had faults certainly, but a lot things didn't run our way as much as they could have. This wasn't about the end of last season, this was about the run of games in February. We were actively underachieving (especially in terms of effort) in some of the away games from Stoke (18 April) onwards and it was obvious - but you'd have to have access to some detailed stats to see how that came about - does an indicator show itself in distances travelled, is there some kind of miracle metric for slower reactions to on field actions or chances prevented? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 So, regardless of where the club finished in the table, it seems like it’s time to say it: Southampton is just better at this than everyone else. We certainly weren't in the last 2 months of last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 I used to paricularly enjoy the stats around our percentage chance of making the champions league which were all the rage. Of course all common went out of the window, those that said they were a load of bollo*cks were shouted down. Oh no, some spreadsheet jockey told us we were 64% likely to make the champions league or some other nonsense so this was cause for celebration. Funny how no one has posted the links since April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 I used to paricularly enjoy the stats around our percentage chance of making the champions league which were all the rage. Of course all common went out of the window, those that said they were a load of bollo*cks were shouted down. Oh no, some spreadsheet jockey told us we were 64% likely to make the champions league or some other nonsense so this was cause for celebration. Funny how no one has posted the links since April. I'm fairly sure this didn't happen. If I did, I not only wasn't involved in it, I didn't even see it. And I was posting ALL that kind of stuff when we were in the Championship and when the bed-wetters were saying we'd get relegated in 2012/13 despite being upwards of 40 points in April... Cue a Turkish search to find me doing exactly that last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 Amongst all these stats is there anything about the number of times 'we' hit the woodwork. A few of those going into the goal might have made a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dangermouth Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 I'm fairly sure this didn't happen. If I did, I not only wasn't involved in it, I didn't even see it. And I was posting ALL that kind of stuff when we were in the Championship and when the bed-wetters were saying we'd get relegated in 2012/13 despite being upwards of 40 points in April... Cue a Turkish search to find me doing exactly that last season. Actually there was quite a bit of stuff around December (before we decided to implode) where a number of posters were very cocky and asked questions along the lines of "Who would we like in our CL group?". Far too presumptuous; just like all those posters who didn't even consider the Danish lot to be worthy of consideration and had us already in the group stages of the EL. So, for once, I endorse Turkish's memory. Patently we did underperform last season and should have made the CL stages (come 3rd) I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lets B Avenue Posted 29 September, 2015 Share Posted 29 September, 2015 So, for once, I endorse Turkish's memory. Patently we did underperform last season and should have made the CL stages (come 3rd) I think. Which would have meant Utd missing out. So its pretty obvious that it was all Schneiderlin's doing. The bast ard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 30 September, 2015 Share Posted 30 September, 2015 Actually there was quite a bit of stuff around December (before we decided to implode) where a number of posters were very cocky and asked questions along the lines of "Who would we like in our CL group?". Far too presumptuous; just like all those posters who didn't even consider the Danish lot to be worthy of consideration and had us already in the group stages of the EL. So, for once, I endorse Turkish's memory. Patently we did underperform last season and should have made the CL stages (come 3rd) I think. People saying "who do we want in our group" isn't the same as "we have a 64% chance of making CL"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dangermouth Posted 30 September, 2015 Share Posted 30 September, 2015 People saying "who do we want in our group" isn't the same as "we have a 64% chance of making CL"... If that's an argument, I'd suggest you learn to read what is read and then respond to that; not show your failings in attempting to comprehend basic English. The premise was, and is, that there was a sudden upswing in over-confidence that was unjustified. Clear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 30 September, 2015 Share Posted 30 September, 2015 I used to paricularly enjoy the stats around our percentage chance of making the champions league which were all the rage. Of course all common went out of the window, those that said they were a load of bollo*cks were shouted down. Oh no, some spreadsheet jockey told us we were 64% likely to make the champions league or some other nonsense so this was cause for celebration. Funny how no one has posted the links since April. If that's an argument, I'd suggest you learn to read what is read and then respond to that; not show your failings in attempting to comprehend basic English. The premise was, and is, that there was a sudden upswing in over-confidence that was unjustified. Clear? Two things. One, if I learned "to read what is read" I'd have superpowers, and secondly, I was responding to the comment above, which suggests you haven't learned to read what is... written. Crystal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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