Wiggles31 Posted 11 August, 2015 Posted 11 August, 2015 http://www.nsno.co.uk/forums/index.php?topic=48842.15 Everton fans not confident at all.
The9 Posted 11 August, 2015 Posted 11 August, 2015 Oh and let's not forget the analytics adage, we scored 2 goals that were only worth 0.5 of a point each, a clean sheet would have got us 3 points.
maysie Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 http://www.nsno.co.uk/forums/index.php?topic=48842.15 Everton fans not confident at all. Plenty of disrest regard Martinez and his tactics. To be honest his firsts season was a fluke as he still inherited the steel of the Moyes team and added his attacking football and it was the perfect combo. Now they just defend like Wigan.
shurlock Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 (edited) Oh and let's not forget the analytics adage, we scored 2 goals that were only worth 0.5 of a point each, a clean sheet would have got us 3 points. Of course, clean sheets are more valuable - they are less common than goals scored. That's like saying it's more lucrative to win the lottery than a coin toss (with the same stake). But that's true in only the most banal and dull sense. Try a more like-for-like comparison: is it more important to keep a clean sheet or avoid drawing blanks and not score in games (after all, they occur with the same frequency)? The evidence suggests that the latter is associated more strongly with how many points a team will collect over the season, so in that sense, offense does appear to matter more Edited 12 August, 2015 by shurlock
yellow&blue Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 http://www.toffeetalk.com/index.php?/topic/27343-southampton-away/#entry474853 Some deluded Everton fan thinks we get 23,000 at St Mary's on a good day!
Batman Posted 12 August, 2015 Author Posted 12 August, 2015 http://www.toffeetalk.com/index.php?/topic/27343-southampton-away/#entry474853 Some deluded Everton fan thinks we get 23,000 at St Mary's on a good day! typical scouser. Merseyside if the centre of the universe!!!
The Cat Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 http://www.toffeetalk.com/index.php?/topic/27343-southampton-away/#entry474853 Some deluded Everton fan thinks we get 23,000 at St Mary's on a good day! No he doesn't. He thinks that's the capacity of St Mary's.
Patrick Bateman Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 http://www.toffeetalk.com/index.php?/topic/27343-southampton-away/#entry474853 Some deluded Everton fan thinks we get 23,000 at St Mary's on a good day! He's probably about 15 years old.
Chris27687 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 http://www.toffeetalk.com/index.php?/topic/27343-southampton-away/#entry474853 Some deluded Everton fan thinks we get 23,000 at St Mary's on a good day! He's not having a dig at Southampton he's having a dig at Everton....
VectisSaint Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 He's probably about 15 years old. Wonder how many on here could quote the capacity of Goodison without either looking it up first or being MLG.
wanyamaisatank Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 Wonder how many on here could quote the capacity of Goodison without either looking it up first or being MLG. about 40,000 isn't it?
The9 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 Wonder how many on here could quote the capacity of Goodison without either looking it up first or being MLG. It's about 37000 isn't it?
The9 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 It's about 37000 isn't it? A quick Google says 40,221 - so I was under 9% out. His guess was nearly 30% out.
The9 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 Of course, clean sheets are more valuable - they are less common than goals scored. That's like saying it's more lucrative to win the lottery than a coin toss (with the same stake). But that's true in only the most banal and dull sense. Try a more like-for-like comparison: is it more important to keep a clean sheet or avoid drawing blanks and not score in games (after all, they occur with the same frequency)? The evidence suggests that the latter is associated more strongly with how many points a team will collect over the season, so in that sense, offense does appear to matter more You get a point guaranteed for a clean sheet and nothing guaranteed for a goal. The point guaranteed for even a 0-0 tips the balance well in favour of defending. Keeping a clean sheet doesn't prevent a team also scoring in a game so they will AT WORST get 1 point, whilst scoring (and conceding) gives you a net gain of nothing. We got 2.7 points on average from the 14 games Saints kept a clean sheet last season, whilst scoring 54 goals got us 60 points, only 1.11 per game. The only modifier here is that in leagues where 0-0s are more common (i.e. where both sides are defensive) the value of that clean sheet reduces. It's only worth about 2.3 points in Italy, for instance.
VectisSaint Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 A quick Google says 40,221 - so I was under 9% out. His guess was nearly 30% out. So thats one then. Now you've posted the answer even the 15 year olds here will get it right (at least those that can read). By the way, it varies some say 39k is the capacity.
Saint_clark Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 No he doesn't. He thinks that's the capacity of St Mary's. I remember when we beat them 3-0 there were some really arsey Everton fans after the game saying how we never got crowds above 6k when we were down in league one and it was just full of glory hunters now.
Greenb Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 Oh and let's not forget the analytics adage, we scored 2 goals that were only worth 0.5 of a point each, a clean sheet would have got us 3 points. That's not quite right. There were only 3 points available. If the two goals got us a point, then the clean sheet could only have got us an extra 2 (not 3). It's impossible to get 3 points without scoring. It is however possible to get 3 points without a clean sheet. A more important adage I think. "Goals win games" (and points)
The9 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 That's not quite right. There were only 3 points available. If the two goals got us a point, then the clean sheet could only have got us an extra 2 (not 3). It's impossible to get 3 points without scoring. It is however possible to get 3 points without a clean sheet. A more important adage I think. "Goals win games" (and points) A clean sheet in a match where we had scored 2 goals would have got us 3 points. No-one anywhere was claiming there were more than 3 points. To anyone else wishing to continue this argument, I recommend this: http://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0670922242 Or you could just read this: http://footballmythbusters.mvrray.com/2015/03/04/a-clean-sheet-vs-1-goal/
The9 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 There is a slightly contradictory conclusion here: http://thegameisafoot.weebly.com/sport-articles/premiership-statistics-part-1-scoring-goals-or-keeping-clean-sheets But on re-reading, what it's basically saying is that because all the teams in the top half are already good at keeping clean sheets, scoring is more important to distinguish yourself from the other teams who can defend, whilst in the bottom half teams leak a lot of goals so its more beneficial to stop doing that. Our finishing position of 7th would bear that out, had it not been for our run of games in which we conceded 2 goals wrecking a finishing position of at least 5th.
The9 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 So thats one then. Now you've posted the answer even the 15 year olds here will get it right (at least those that can read). By the way, it varies some say 39k is the capacity. Two. And a 100% success rate to within 9%.
nta786 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 Wonder how many on here could quote the capacity of Goodison without either looking it up first or being MLG. Yes but with the way their stadium is built- are we including the restricted views too?
Matthew Le God Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 (edited) http://www.toffeetalk.com/index.php?/topic/27343-southampton-away/#entry474853 Some deluded Everton fan thinks we get 23,000 at St Mary's on a good day! No he doesn't. He thinks that's the capacity of St Mary's. He's probably about 15 years old. Wonder how many on here could quote the capacity of Goodison without either looking it up first or being MLG. From his claim of a 23,000 capacity to the actual capacity being over 32,500 is quite a large margin of error. Every Premier League season at St Mary's has averaged over 30,000. Edited 12 August, 2015 by Matthew Le God
Greenb Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 A clean sheet in a match where we had scored 2 goals would have got us 3 points. As would the concession of one goal. Clean sheet not necessary. It's our goals that got the points! Probably best to focus on scoring more than the opposition?
shurlock Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 The9 still doing his best toddler with a machete impression
Dig Dig Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 The9 still doing his best toddler with a machete impression Can't wait for him to grow out of this phase tbh.
NewYorkSaint Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 As would the concession of one goal. Clean sheet not necessary. It's our goals that got the points! Probably best to focus on scoring more than the opposition? At risk of flogging a dead horse, in a league where you get 3 pts for a win and only 1 for a draw, it's definitely worth gambling on winning even if it increases your chance of losing. Imagine two teams that were overall equally good, in the sense that over the course of a season their net goal difference was zero, but one team only let in 30 and scored 30, while the other let in 60 and scored 60. That means on average, both teams will have the same number of wins and losses. BUT, the team that scores more and lets in more goals will have a lower % of DRAWS. That's because the first team will almost always score or let in 0-2 goals, while the second team will score or let in 0-4 goals... that greater variability means more chance of a result one way of the other. So the first team might have 13 wins, 13 losses and 12 draws, and the second team 16 wins, 16 losses and 6 draws. That means it will actually clock up more points (54) than the lower scoring, better defense team (51). It will also be a helluva lot more entertaining. So in that sense, if you could dial up attack at the exact same rate you dialed back defense, you should do so. That, by the way, is why the 3pt incentive is there. It's to stop the game becoming boring. So count me among those who welcome our new uber-attacking Saints.
TwoPints Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 From his claim of a 23,000 capacity to the actual capacity being over 32,500 is quite a large margin of error. Every Premier League season at St Mary's has averaged over 30,000. Maybe he just got the 2 and the 3 round the wrong way when he was typing?
krissyboy31 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 So does Romeu go straight in the starting 11? Bench I would've thought.
The9 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 The9 still doing his best toddler with a machete impression It's OK, I don't expect you to be enlightened. But basically every single thing in that analytics book is something Saints have been doing for a couple of seasons to relatively spectacular results. Every sceptic is another few hours of argument whilst we carry on achieving success.
The9 Posted 12 August, 2015 Posted 12 August, 2015 At risk of flogging a dead horse, in a league where you get 3 pts for a win and only 1 for a draw, it's definitely worth gambling on winning even if it increases your chance of losing. Imagine two teams that were overall equally good, in the sense that over the course of a season their net goal difference was zero, but one team only let in 30 and scored 30, while the other let in 60 and scored 60. That means on average, both teams will have the same number of wins and losses. BUT, the team that scores more and lets in more goals will have a lower % of DRAWS. That's because the first team will almost always score or let in 0-2 goals, while the second team will score or let in 0-4 goals... that greater variability means more chance of a result one way of the other. So the first team might have 13 wins, 13 losses and 12 draws, and the second team 16 wins, 16 losses and 6 draws. That means it will actually clock up more points (54) than the lower scoring, better defense team (51). It will also be a helluva lot more entertaining. So in that sense, if you could dial up attack at the exact same rate you dialed back defense, you should do so. That, by the way, is why the 3pt incentive is there. It's to stop the game becoming boring. So count me among those who welcome our new uber-attacking Saints. Except that the teams with the most goals scored very rarely win the title, and the teams with the fewest goals conceded do so much more often. So it's not a great strategy for actually winning enough matches in the first place. Defending to not concede works because you know that you will get enough opportunities to probably score anyway.
Saint Charlie Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Saints hoping Clasie trains today and is available for Sat. Source: Echo
benjii Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 I think I would select this team: ------------------Incredible Stekkers----------------------- Cedric Sneer-----Fonte-----Yoshi-------------Targett ----------------Wanyama--------Reed---------------------- Tadic--------------------Mane--------------------Davis ------------------------------Pelle-------------------------- Bench: Gazzarniger, Martina, Caulker, Romeu, Juanmi, Long, Jay Rod Reed had a good game against Everton last season and I don't see merit in rushing Classie or playing Romeu from the start. It shows our squad depth that JWP can't even make the bench and if Classie was fit then neither would Reed. If we sign VvD then Caulker would probably also have the day off.
Roger Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Stek Soares fonte yosh targett Vic clasie Mane tadic long Pelle Subs: gazza, j rod, Romeo, Davis, Juanmi, jwp, Martina.
positivepete Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Except that the teams with the most goals scored very rarely win the title, and the teams with the fewest goals conceded do so much more often. So it's not a great strategy for actually winning enough matches in the first place. Defending to not concede works because you know that you will get enough opportunities to probably score anyway. And since we have had four qualify for the Champions league, only once has the team that conceded the least goals not qualified. Back to the topic, looking forward to Saturday. The strength in depth of the squad makes the options for the starting line up and the substitutes very interesting. This depth will also push our home grown players, they will have to earn their place in the match day squad by improving and showing well in training.
JRM Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Any more news on Bertrand? i am sure they said a few weeks ago he was ahead of schedule, and was due back by now anyway as they said 5-6 weeks at the time. hopefully he's had plenty of training sessions and could feature in one the European ties coming up. tickets seem to be selling fairly well, doubt it will sell out but not far off with most seats left in block 43 and across the chapel stand. Everton sold out their 2400 a while ago - surprised they didn't take block 43 as well.
The9 Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Any more news on Bertrand? i am sure they said a few weeks ago he was ahead of schedule, and was due back by now anyway as they said 5-6 weeks at the time. hopefully he's had plenty of training sessions and could feature in one the European ties coming up. tickets seem to be selling fairly well, doubt it will sell out but not far off with most seats left in block 43 and across the chapel stand. Everton sold out their 2400 a while ago - surprised they didn't take block 43 as well. 12:45 kick offs and live tv will do that to an away fan. Especially one that's seen them scoring goals against their own team for fun in the past two matches.
Jez Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 I think I would select this team: ------------------Incredible Stekkers----------------------- Cedric Sneer-----Fonte-----Yoshi-------------Targett ----------------Wanyama--------Reed---------------------- Tadic--------------------Mane--------------------Davis ------------------------------Pelle-------------------------- I'm disappointed you got bored of making up interesting nicknames for our players after picking the keeper and right back. Perhaps you could have gone with "invisible Fonte" considering he's now joining Villa. p.s He's not. I can't see Reed starting though, and I'd be surprised if he dropped J-Rod, as Koeman knows he needs gametime to rediscover his previous form. As Clasie played the U21 game, I reckon he'll start at vs Everton. With Romeu, he'll replace Reed on the bench (imo) but JWP probably even be ahead of them. Otherwise agree with your opinion!
100%Red&White Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Any more news on Bertrand? i am sure they said a few weeks ago he was ahead of schedule, and was due back by now anyway as they said 5-6 weeks at the time. hopefully he's had plenty of training sessions and could feature in one the European ties coming up. tickets seem to be selling fairly well, doubt it will sell out but not far off with most seats left in block 43 and across the chapel stand. Everton sold out their 2400 a while ago - surprised they didn't take block 43 as well. Everton's away support is top notch, great turnout for a long trip/early kick-off live on TV - most are probably coming from Boscombe though. Mostly single seats left other than the block that the Scousers sent back and can't see too many more shifting now at £39 (plus booking fee!) when it's on the box. 30-31,000 I'd guess. Hoping the early kick-off don't mess with the atmosphere too much.
trousers Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Clasie out for "2 to 3 weeks". Caulker will also miss the game...
saint-crinny Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Clasie out for "2 to 3 weeks". Caulker will also miss the game... making it even more unlikely that Fonte is in talks with Villa you would think
JRM Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 12:45 kick offs and live tv will do that to an away fan. Especially one that's seen them scoring goals against their own team for fun in the past two matches. Not sure what your point is - they sold out the tickets given to them when still on sale to season ticket holders, 2400, Everton clearly couldn't be bothered to take the risk on selling the further 800 but i reckon they would have sold them - top support.
SO16_Saint Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 from the comments section of the Presser on Youtube: Espen Langeveld Southampton are close to loaning Zouma dont believe it for a second
BotleySaint Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Luckily the transfer window is still open so opportunity to get cover in for these unexpected early season injuries. Looks like only 2 fit center-backs for the weekend then!
trousers Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Koeman: "I'm not available to play this weekend "
trousers Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Classie has an ankle injury. Caulker has a sinus infection. Bertrand back maybe back in training in 2 weeks. Still working to bring in one more defender.
Saint_Ash Posted 13 August, 2015 Posted 13 August, 2015 Looking a bit thin on the ground. Wonder if Romeu is ready to go straight in
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