Goals galore....

[benjii]

Mane, Pelle, Jay Rod

Should each get at least 12 goals. 36+

 

Long, Tadic, Juanmi

Should each get at least 5 goals. 15+

 

JWP, Davis, Wanyama, Classie

Should get at least 4 between them! 4+

 

Soares, Bertrand, Targett, Martina

Should get at least 2 between them. 2+

 

Fonte, Yoshida, New centre back, Gardos

Should get at least 3 between them. 3+

 

That's 60 goals.

 

If we manage that then it would need a very poor season defensively for us to drop down the league. Based on the amount of flair and depth we have upfront, I reckon we are going to finish 5th or 6th next season. You heard it here.

[Batman]

I agree. think we will be a threat in nearly all the games

 

it is keeping them out.

 

Morgan and toby were monsters for us last season where 1 goal won us points

[Wiggles31]

We do have great attacking depth and at last a player (Clasie) who can pick out the intelligent runs of Mane, Long, JRod and presumably Juanmi.

 

Its no secret that we will bring in a CB with rumours of another CDM to improve the back 4.

 

Absolutely buzzing for this season!

[hasper57saint]

The future looks good.The future is Saints.

[Saint_clark]

I think Clasie is more than capable of filling Schneiderlins role from what I've seen, wins the ball back just as well.

[washsaint]

Early, early days but yes. We look to have far more attacking threat this season than the last couple of successful seasons. Pace, movement and flair - hopefully we are in for another great season.

[hutch]

Mane, Pelle, Jay Rod

Should each get at least 12 goals. 36+

 

Long, Tadic, Juanmi

Should each get at least 5 goals. 15+

 

JWP, Davis, Wanyama, Classie

Should get at least 4 between them! 4+

 

Soares, Bertrand, Targett, Martina

Should get at least 2 between them. 2+

 

Fonte, Yoshida, New centre back, Gardos

Should get at least 3 between them. 3+

 

That's 60 goals.

 

If we manage that then it would need a very poor season defensively for us to drop down the league. Based on the amount of flair and depth we have upfront, I reckon we are going to finish 5th or 6th next season. You heard it here.

I know it's only Groningen but I wouldn't go that far

[benjii]

I know it's only Groningen but I wouldn't go that far

 

Not based on Groningen match at all. Based on realistic goal-scoring aspirations. Who do you think I have set too high a target for? I think only Jay Rod, maybe, given there is still some fitness uncertainty. If Mane or Pelle got less than 12 goals that would be hugely disappointing. In fact, Mane should be aiming for at least 15. If Long, Tadic and Juanmi don't get five each that would also be pretty poor.

 

It depends largely how Ronald sets us up but I reckon he will be pretty ****ed off at the lack of goals from Davis and JWP last season and we could well see four of those top six offensive players I listed in a lot of matches.

[Manuel]

If Mane's worked out how to score 3 goals in less than 3 minutes, we should be looking at his season target of over 500+ really.

[Brave Sir Robin]

I think we're going to be really exciting to watch, with goals flying in at either end!

I think most top half teams will also be better than last season, though, so anywhere from 6th to 12th would be my guess (which I'll be more than happy with personally)

[gary3009]

Compared to last season,up front is very much stronger than last season what with Juanmi and Jay-Rod plus the likes of Mane,Tadic and Pelle having a decent break and no mid season international competitions. Its the lack of Forster,Toby and Morgan that makes things interesting!

[Deano6]

Mane, Pelle, Jay Rod

Should each get at least 12 goals. 36+

 

Long, Tadic, Juanmi

Should each get at least 5 goals. 15+

 

JWP, Davis, Wanyama, Classie

Should get at least 4 between them! 4+

 

Soares, Bertrand, Targett, Martina

Should get at least 2 between them. 2+

 

Fonte, Yoshida, New centre back, Gardos

Should get at least 3 between them. 3+

 

That's 60 goals.

 

If we manage that then it would need a very poor season defensively for us to drop down the league. Based on the amount of flair and depth we have upfront, I reckon we are going to finish 5th or 6th next season. You heard it here.

 

Isn't the point that someone will underperform compared to expectations. You don't know at this point who they will be, but almost 100% guaranteed someone will.

 

I bet you Mane, Pelle and J-Rod don't all score 12+ goals next season.

[Super_Saint]

Isn't the point that someone will underperform compared to expectations. You don't know at this point who they will be, but almost 100% guaranteed someone will.

 

I bet you Mane, Pelle and J-Rod don't all score 12+ goals next season.

 

On the contrary, it is likely that someone will exceed those expectations, but it's easier to average the goals among the three.

[Deano6]

On the contrary, it is likely that someone will exceed those expectations, but it's easier to average the goals among the three.

 

That's not a contrary position.

 

I bet they don't get 36 goals between them.

[Pastor Patrón]

Mane, Pelle, Jay Rod

Should each get at least 12 goals. 36+

 

Long, Tadic, Juanmi

Should each get at least 5 goals. 15+

 

JWP, Davis, Wanyama, Classie

Should get at least 4 between them! 4+

 

Soares, Bertrand, Targett, Martina

Should get at least 2 between them. 2+

 

Fonte, Yoshida, New centre back, Gardos

Should get at least 3 between them. 3+

 

That's 60 goals.

 

If we manage that then it would need a very poor season defensively for us to drop down the league. Based on the amount of flair and depth we have upfront, I reckon we are going to finish 5th or 6th next season. You heard it here.

 

I reckon it'll be a similar figure but more like this:

 

Mane: 20

Pelle: 12

Rodriguez: 7

Long: 2

Tadic: 4

Juanmi: 4

JWP: 0

Davis: 2

Wanyama: 2

Classie: 2

Centre backs: 4

[Redslo]

If Mane's worked out how to score 3 goals in less than 3 minutes, we should be looking at his season target of over 500+ really.

 

I hope not. We would have trouble holding onto him in January.

[Super_Saint]

That's not a contrary position.

 

I bet they don't get 36 goals between them.

 

Someone will underperform, on the contrary someone will overperform. I bet they do.

[Deano6]

Someone will underperform, on the contrary someone will overperform. I bet they do.

 

The fact that some will overperform is not contrary to the fact that some will underperform. On the contrary, the two are complementary.

[Redslo]

I think everyone will perform exactly at the appropriate level of expectations. However, we will not know what those are until the season is over.

[alpine_saint]

Won't be optimistic until I see who is replacing Toby

[Matthew Le God]

Fixed that for you...

 

I won't be optimistic

[The9]

Mane, Pelle, Jay Rod

Should each get at least 12 goals. 36+

 

Long, Tadic, Juanmi

Should each get at least 5 goals. 15+

 

JWP, Davis, Wanyama, Classie

Should get at least 4 between them! 4+

 

Soares, Bertrand, Targett, Martina

Should get at least 2 between them. 2+

 

Fonte, Yoshida, New centre back, Gardos

Should get at least 3 between them. 3+

 

That's 60 goals.

 

If we manage that then it would need a very poor season defensively for us to drop down the league. Based on the amount of flair and depth we have upfront, I reckon we are going to finish 5th or 6th next season. You heard it here.

 

Scoring 3 goals in a match is only JUST more valuable in points terms to keeping a clean sheet. You're looking at the wrong end for points generation.

[alpine_saint]

Fixed that for you...

 

Yaaaawwwwwwnnnnnnnnn............

[buctootim]

I think everyone will perform exactly at the appropriate level of expectations. However, we will not know what those are until the season is over.

 

Retrospective expectations. The professional's way to hit targets consistently.

[Redslo]

Retrospective expectations. The professional's way to hit targets consistently.

 

Exactly what I predicted you would say.

[buctootim]

Exactly what I predicted you would say!

 

Thats premature ejaculation. You're assuming you would have thought that, but can't be sure until the season is over.

[Saint_clark]

Won't be optimistic until I see who is replacing Toby

 

Utterly irrelevant in a discussion about our goalscoring chances, don't you think?

[Junior Mullet]

Won't be optimistic until I see who is replacing Toby

 

You mean the guy we had last season with a terrible injury record? Hope he plays as much for spurs as shaw did for united last season.

 

#trusttheboard

[The9]

Utterly irrelevant in a discussion about our goalscoring chances, don't you think?

 

Not when keeping a Clean Sheet is and nearly 3 times as important as any goal we score in terms of points. Clearly signing a CB to fill the gaping Belgian-shaped hole in defence (along with hoping the Dutch bloke replaces the French bloke well) are the keys to our success, this stuff is less important.

 

"Conceding ten fewer goals than another club throughout the course of a season results in an average difference of about +3 points, but scoring ten more goals than another club throughout the season will result in an average difference of just +2 points.

 

Teams in the top-five for goals scored have finished 10th or lower three separate times, even placing as low as 16th. The lowest a top-five defense has finished is eighth (Fulham, 2010-11).

 

Since the 2003-2004 season, 68 teams have conceded fewer than 45 goals. Of those teams, 50 (73.5%) have secured a top-five finish, and none have been relegated.

In that same timetable, 81 teams have scored over 50 goals, and of those teams, 57 (70.4%) have secured a top-five finish. One team (Blackpool, 2010-11) has been relegated."

 

"During the most recent transfer window, Premier League teams made 59 transfers that had disclosed fees. There were, of course, several undisclosed transfer fees, but for now, these are the numbers that are available to the public, and this is how they break down:

 

18 midfielders purchased for an average of £12 million per player (total amount spent on midfielders: £215 million)

17 attacking players purchased for an average of £9.3 million per player (total amount spent on attackers: £167 million)

17 defenders purchased for an average of £4.3 million per player (total amount spent on defenders: (£73.6 million)

3 goalkeepers purchased for an average of £4.4 million per player (total amount spent on goalies: £13.2 million)

The massive discrepancy between the value of attackers and the value defenders and goalkeepers is not only disproportionate to what one would expect to see in the logical world, but it’s also disproportionate to what one should see in the real world."

 

http://eplindex.com/39244/football-game-of-balance-liverpool-tottenham-swansea-transfers.html

[niceandfriendly]

edit

[mcbendy]

Not when keeping a Clean Sheet is and nearly 3 times as important as any goal we score in terms of points. Clearly signing a CB to fill the gaping Belgian-shaped hole in defence (along with hoping the Dutch bloke replaces the French bloke well) are the keys to our success, this stuff is less important.

 

"Conceding ten fewer goals than another club throughout the course of a season results in an average difference of about +3 points, but scoring ten more goals than another club throughout the season will result in an average difference of just +2 points.

 

Teams in the top-five for goals scored have finished 10th or lower three separate times, even placing as low as 16th. The lowest a top-five defense has finished is eighth (Fulham, 2010-11).

 

Since the 2003-2004 season, 68 teams have conceded fewer than 45 goals. Of those teams, 50 (73.5%) have secured a top-five finish, and none have been relegated.

In that same timetable, 81 teams have scored over 50 goals, and of those teams, 57 (70.4%) have secured a top-five finish. One team (Blackpool, 2010-11) has been relegated."

 

"During the most recent transfer window, Premier League teams made 59 transfers that had disclosed fees. There were, of course, several undisclosed transfer fees, but for now, these are the numbers that are available to the public, and this is how they break down:

 

18 midfielders purchased for an average of £12 million per player (total amount spent on midfielders: £215 million)

17 attacking players purchased for an average of £9.3 million per player (total amount spent on attackers: £167 million)

17 defenders purchased for an average of £4.3 million per player (total amount spent on defenders: (£73.6 million)

3 goalkeepers purchased for an average of £4.4 million per player (total amount spent on goalies: £13.2 million)

The massive discrepancy between the value of attackers and the value defenders and goalkeepers is not only disproportionate to what one would expect to see in the logical world, but it’s also disproportionate to what one should see in the real world."

 

http://eplindex.com/39244/football-game-of-balance-liverpool-tottenham-swansea-transfers.html

 

I don't disagree with that. However, a point worth making is that scoring goals fills the stadium, sells shirts and gets more live TV coverage and hence TV money.

[alpine_saint]

Utterly irrelevant in a discussion about our goalscoring chances, don't you think?

 

Sorry, I thought teams win games by scoring one more than the opposing team....

 

[Whitey Grandad]

Sorry, I thought teams win games by scoring one more than the opposing team....

 

 

Goals win games, clean sheets win leagues.

[Alain Perrin]

I am wary of our goal scoring chances. Back in 1998 I lost on a spread bet for Norway to score >4 goals at the WC. They'd been scoring for fun in the qualifiers and their group looked promising. Result, zero goals.

 

Let's wait and see.

[Saint IQ]

Think I might put a cheeky bet on Mane' to be top premier League goalscorer EW. 100-1 atm, could easily see him being in the top 4-5. There's always one player who surprises, last year it was Kane this year Sadiooooo Mane!

[PhilippineSaint]

Isn't the point that someone will underperform compared to expectations. You don't know at this point who they will be, but almost 100% guaranteed someone will.

 

I bet you Mane, Pelle and J-Rod don't all score 12+ goals next season.

 

They could all get that against Sunderland an Villa if last year is anything to go on.

[Deano6]

Not when keeping a Clean Sheet is and nearly 3 times as important as any goal we score in terms of points. Clearly signing a CB to fill the gaping Belgian-shaped hole in defence (along with hoping the Dutch bloke replaces the French bloke well) are the keys to our success, this stuff is less important.

 

"Conceding ten fewer goals than another club throughout the course of a season results in an average difference of about +3 points, but scoring ten more goals than another club throughout the season will result in an average difference of just +2 points.

 

Teams in the top-five for goals scored have finished 10th or lower three separate times, even placing as low as 16th. The lowest a top-five defense has finished is eighth (Fulham, 2010-11).

 

Since the 2003-2004 season, 68 teams have conceded fewer than 45 goals. Of those teams, 50 (73.5%) have secured a top-five finish, and none have been relegated.

In that same timetable, 81 teams have scored over 50 goals, and of those teams, 57 (70.4%) have secured a top-five finish. One team (Blackpool, 2010-11) has been relegated."

 

"During the most recent transfer window, Premier League teams made 59 transfers that had disclosed fees. There were, of course, several undisclosed transfer fees, but for now, these are the numbers that are available to the public, and this is how they break down:

 

18 midfielders purchased for an average of £12 million per player (total amount spent on midfielders: £215 million)

17 attacking players purchased for an average of £9.3 million per player (total amount spent on attackers: £167 million)

17 defenders purchased for an average of £4.3 million per player (total amount spent on defenders: (£73.6 million)

3 goalkeepers purchased for an average of £4.4 million per player (total amount spent on goalies: £13.2 million)

The massive discrepancy between the value of attackers and the value defenders and goalkeepers is not only disproportionate to what one would expect to see in the logical world, but it’s also disproportionate to what one should see in the real world."

 

http://eplindex.com/39244/football-game-of-balance-liverpool-tottenham-swansea-transfers.html

 

It's about substitutability. Defending may be very important, but it's not that hard and plenty of people could do a decent job. To get a striker who can conjure a goal out of nothing is very rare indeed and so they are worth much more.

 

You could also think of it as a goal being a "negative clean sheet". If it is very valuable to the opposition to have a clean sheet, the best thing you can do it to prevent them from having one...by scoring a goal! Your point only really covers the second, third, fourth goals in a game. It is very very important to score a goal if you wish to win. (I can't make that point strongly enough, it really is)

[AussieDog]

It's about substitutability. Defending may be very important, but it's not that hard and plenty of people could do a decent job. To get a striker who can conjure a goal out of nothing is very rare indeed and so they are worth much more.

 

You could also think of it as a goal being a "negative clean sheet". If it is very valuable to the opposition to have a clean sheet, the best thing you can do it to prevent them from having one...by scoring a goal! Your point only really covers the second, third, fourth goals in a game. It is very very important to score a goal if you wish to win. (I can't make that point strongly enough, it really is)

 

If you don't SCORE any goals you will have a maximum of 38 points. IF you don't CONCEDE any goals you will have a MINIMUM of 38 points (and yes, that is the mathematics even though it is never going to happen).

On that logic, it's more important to keep a clean sheet than to score goals

[Deano6]

If you don't SCORE any goals you will have a maximum of 38 points. IF you don't CONCEDE any goals you will have a MINIMUM of 38 points (and yes, that is the mathematics even though it is never going to happen).

On that logic, it's more important to keep a clean sheet than to score goals

 

Terrible logic, it doesn't suggest that at all. It suggests that if you want to get more than 38 points (borderline relegation), then you need to score goals. In fact all your numbers say is "don't not score goals"!

[doddisalegend]

Well pre-season is turning into a bit of a goal fest:D with J-rod back and Juanmi we certainly have more attacking options this season.

[alpine_saint]

Looks like we have plenty of goals in the team now, question is how we keep them out at the other end...

[CB Fry]

Terrible logic, it doesn't suggest that at all. It suggests that if you want to get more than 38 points (borderline relegation), then you need to score goals. In fact all your numbers say is "don't not score goals"!

With a few outliers, yer typical league table will have the highest scorers and lowest conceded at the top and the lowest scorers and highest conceders at the bottom. It's boring but score more than the other lit will always do you right.

[AussieDog]

Terrible logic, it doesn't suggest that at all. It suggests that if you want to get more than 38 points (borderline relegation), then you need to score goals. In fact all your numbers say is "don't not score goals"!

 

You might not like the logic, but you can't argue with it. I didn't say that was what I would like to watch, but it is a fact.

What it is really saying is that a solid defence is your starting point and I would dare to suggest that is the approach all the top teams will adopt. Of course, there is also the approach that the best form of defence is attack

[lloydie]

Looks like we have plenty of goals in the team now, question is how we keep them out at the other end...

 

Well, we did keep a clean sheet... it's not like we can concede less than 0.

[benjii]

No doubt that statistically a clean sheet is worth more than a goal. But I am starting from the assumption that we will score a lot of goals, not that everything is equal and we will score and concede an average number of goals.

 

Teams that score 60 goals rarely finish lower than 6th.

 

On the assumption that we will score 60 goals the value of a clean sheet is reduced. Score once in a match and a clean sheet is important. Score twice and not conceding more than once is important.

 

If we score the number of goals I have posited I reckon we'll finish fifth or sixth, unless we have a complete calamity at the back.

[shurlock]

Not to be outm**ged, I built a very quick and dirty model, using data from last season's league to explore the relationship between total points, keeping clean sheets and shooting blanks. It actually fitted the data pretty well (adjusted r2 =0.841), met the standards of statistical significance and passed various robustness checks.

 

To cut a long story short: it finds that every game a side failed to score, it was equivalent to dropping 2.8 points (p-value

 

It’s worth pointing out there’s much less spread associated with keeping clean sheets. It seems that many teams managed it on a regular basis whereas the failure to score is far more widely distributed (see variance, standard deviation and kurtosis measures). Given the gap between the big boys and the rest of the league as well as economics of premiership status, perhaps playing not to lose and parking the bus are the norm, again suggesting that avoiding blanks is a bigger differentiator.

 

We failed to score 12 times last season (middle of the pack with the likes of Everton). Not surprisingly, all the teams that finished above us had better records. Chelsea and City shot blanks only 3 times –a league high or low depending on your perspective- followed by Arsenal (5 times). There’s quite a drop off after that, though interestingly the next pack, featuring the usual suspects, also includes Swansea (8 times) and Stoke (9 times) and Wham (11 times). Stoke is easy to explain as defensively it was a shambles (only Palace and QPR kept fewer clean sheets). The story is similar or Wham, not least as they conspired to leak goals towards the end of games.

 

One case which is difficult to explain through the model is Swansea. Clearly they knew how to do a job (as they showed at SMS and the Emirates). One possible explanation is that while Swansea managed to score in more games than us, they rarely scored many. I started to look at this, by examining the probability of winning a game or, at least, securing a point when scoring different amounts of goals, and there’s quite sharp jump when team scores two goals. Perhaps we achieved that more often than Swansea which would fit our often Jekyll and Hyde attack.

 

Finally, there’s the sense in which its easier to improve on average performance than trying to squeeze marginal gains out of superior performance.

 

Anyway, a few thoughts. It’s a very crude, preliminary analysis, though dare I say its more rigorous than the ****e that gets passed off on the sports journalist and amateur analytics sites.

Edited 22 July, 2015 by shurlock

[Deano6]

You might not like the logic, but you can't argue with it. I didn't say that was what I would like to watch, but it is a fact.

What it is really saying is that a solid defence is your starting point and I would dare to suggest that is the approach all the top teams will adopt. Of course, there is also the approach that the best form of defence is attack

 

I'm not sure if you are trolling me or if you believe what you are saying. Your logic says nothing about the importance or otherwise of scoring goals, only the pretty obvious point that you can only escape relegation by scoring at least one goal in a season (is it really worth posting that?).

[Deano6]

That's not a contrary position.

 

I bet they don't get 36 goals between them.

 

Someone will underperform, on the contrary someone will overperform. I bet they do.

 

Well this thread is looking a little misjudged now.

 

No goals from open play in 4 games - I'm happy I made that bet!

[S-Clarke]

We look pretty blunt tbh, but it's not helped by the lack of balance from the flanks. It will come eventually, but unfortunately not in time for what we really wanted.

[Deano6]

What was all this talk about our amazing attack this year? Horribly, horribly tepid. Awful to watch.