Black Box Algorithm - Revealed

[Saint Charlie]

There have been lots of comments for a while, about the mystique of the Black Box™, and the process implemented by Paul Mitchell under the guidance of Les Reed.

 

As we know, after a successful transfer window in the summer of 2014, Mitchell moved to Spurs, and Ross Wilson (lover of over-sized suits) took his place.

 

The Black Box™ has taken on additional importance at Saints as we have lost top players this summer and last, to teams who cannot be bothered to invest in their own boxes. Instead they find laggy online streams of our Black Box™ and pay increased prices for players we identified earlier for a lot less.

 

Despite this, the algorithm Mitchell, Reed and Wilson used to identify these signings has not changed significantly, and can be revealed as below:

 

 

Weighting 1 (45%): Koeman knows the prospect from the Dutch league, believing them to be “a good one” and/or “a young one” and thinking they are good enough to be successful in the PL.

 

Examples: Tadic, Pelle, Clasie

 

Weighting 2 (32%) – The prospect is young, has European/Intl experience but plays in a less wealthy and high quality league when compared to the PL and can be lured by the chance to play in a more high-profile league.

Examples: Mane, Gardos, Forster, Wanyama, Lovren, Cedric

 

Weighting 3 (17%) – The prospect has proven his class previously (bonus points if proven to Koeman) but has fallen away slightly, and needs a chance to rebuild his career. Prospect is often available on loan with legally complex options to buy.

Examples: Alderweireld, Bertrand, Djuricic, Elia, Stekelenburg

 

Weighting 4 (5%) - the prospect plays for an emerging football nation and may provide commercial benefits if they do well in the PL.

Examples: Yoshida

 

Weighting 5 (1%) – Prospect is Mayuka

Examples: Mayuka

 

 

Summary: the Black Box™ isn’t as complex or mysterious as is made out by the media. It runs off a stable process, involves good people (Scouting & Management) whose judgement and opinions are trusted, and then supports them to the benefit of the club. Long may it continue.

[Deano6]

Ummm...not sure what to say to this. So - "First!"

[Jimbo]

Ummm...not sure what to say to this. So - "First!"

 

 

Haha

[The9]

Summary: making it up as he goes along and doesn't understand analytics.

[holepuncture]

I like it

[igsey]

I always used to wonder how Saint Charlie got to 13,000+ posts. Guess now I know.

[doddisalegend]

ITK on this one I even have a picture of saints infamous blackbox

 

[van Hanegem]

So no "Moneyball" stuff at all?

[simo]

You forgot Osvaldo, Gaston and Forren?

[ally_uk]

Football manager is the "black box"

[Doctoroncall]

You forgot Osvaldo, Gaston and Forren?

 

That was black box version 1 with too much CEO weighting.

[redder freak]

Ride on time

[Saint-Fred]

It's just an xbox one I am sure. He goes in the black box room locks the door and plays fifa all day on a big screen. When asked he just says he has been studying players all day and then names his favourite fifa players.

Mayuka was virtually the best player on fifa when we bought him, it's the only explanation that makes sense.

[shurlock]

Not sure the blackbox is a predictive/recommendation device anyway; more a glorified hard drive and dashboard to store footage and stats on players that the club has decided to track.

Edited 14 July, 2015 by shurlock

[SarniaSaint]

Not sure the blackbox is a predictive/recommendation device anyway; more a glorified hard drive and dashboard to store footage and stats on players that the club has decided to track.

 

This ^^^^

[The9]

I think a lot of this black box talk underestimates just how much of this kind of stuff clubs capture. The key of course, is making sense of it so that it actually gives you useful intel and not just a pile of confusing numbers, or data that shows no causality.

[Redslo]

I think a lot of this black box talk underestimates just how much of this kind of stuff clubs capture. The key of course, is making sense of it so that it actually gives you useful intel and not just a pile of confusing numbers, or data that shows no causality.

 

Or, even worse, shows causality when it does not exist.

[The9]

Or, even worse, shows causality when it does not exist.

 

I call that the Rodgers Effect.

[Saint IQ]

It's a sophisticated data collecting system for indentifing footballers from the best leagues around the world. So like football manager but with videos and stuff, yah

[Bucks Saint]

Tough, lonely day for Charlie I guess

[jasonb]

Big data for idiots.

 

To be fair, I write about big data and I'm still one of the idiots too.

 

Well Mexico!

[Gemmel]

That was black box version 1 with too much CEO weighting.

 

:) :)

[shurlock]

I think a lot of this black box talk underestimates just how much of this kind of stuff clubs capture. The key of course, is making sense of it so that it actually gives you useful intel and not just a pile of confusing numbers, or data that shows no causality.

 

Show causality? That's like champions league fairy dust...

[The9]

Show causality? That's like champions league fairy dust...

 

Ok, "seems to indicate a high probability of correlation".

 

I'm just getting into this stuff, trying not to alienate the wider audience.

[Saint Charlie]

Romeu is interesting in that he has a heavy weighting 2 but also highlights a new emerging category.

 

"I know the agent of the player..." has been said more than once this summer by Ronald.

 

Not necessarily a bad thing.

[shurlock]

Where does wee Ross fit in?

 

[Saint Charlie]

Where does wee Ross fit in?

 

 

He just adjusts the weightings inside the box when Reed tells him to.

 

Has gained 3kg muscle over the course of the window.

[Saint Charlie]

Interesting to see what the BB is able to identify for Jan.

 

A weighting 3 signing IMO.

[Bourne Valley Saint]

The plane has well and truly crashed and some bright spark needs to start sifting through the wreckage, find the black box and discover the cause!!!