SuperMikey Posted 5 May, 2015 Share Posted 5 May, 2015 How on earth are the Tories going to get a majority of 1 if there's labour minority government ? The fact that there's a labour minority government means that the Tories / lib dumbs will be well short of any majority . Who is going to vote down a labour government ? The snp ? Well that's one way to lose all their gains , and screw up their changes in the '16 jock elections . 1 Green mp, 3 or 4 taffys ? Gerry Adams mob. The dup maybe and ukip , but that won't be enough.That's even if you get a confidence vote . Who do you think is going to call a confidence vote to put a lame duck government out of its misery? I think they'd be able to get a majority of 1 vote if it's clear that the government won't work. If it's clear that any Labour proposals being passed will be reliant on support from the SNP for example, they may well have MPs from within the party voting no confidence so as to not bow to the SNP. It's not unfeasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 5 May, 2015 Share Posted 5 May, 2015 Fuksake. Surely you can see the difference between " quitting politics " and giving up the leadership ? He'll still be an MEP, and may contest another election . Salmond quit as leader Fuksake has he quit politics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 5 May, 2015 Share Posted 5 May, 2015 I think they'd be able to get a majority of 1 vote if it's clear that the government won't work. If it's clear that any Labour proposals being passed will be reliant on support from the SNP for example, they may well have MPs from within the party voting no confidence so as to not bow to the SNP. It's not unfeasible. Who will call the vote of confidence ? Why on earth would the Tories do that until year 3 or 4 . They would let a lame duck government limp on with snp support , there's no way labour could get reelected if that went on for 3 or 4 years . They'd fight the next election on " we told you so' . What you appear to be suggestion is that there would be chaos and a shambles and the Tories would then call for a vote of confidence . No chance , what's the other option? Labour calls for a vote of confidence in itself , all the Tories need to do is abstain quoting the fixed term parliament act and saying they believe in it completely . Or say they don't feel the country is ready for the uncertainty of another election . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperMikey Posted 5 May, 2015 Share Posted 5 May, 2015 Who will call the vote of confidence ? Why on earth would the Tories do that until year 3 or 4 . They would let a lame duck government limp on with snp support , there's no way labour could get reelected if that went on for 3 or 4 years . They'd fight the next election on " we told you so' . What you appear to be suggestion is that there would be chaos and a shambles and the Tories would then call for a vote of confidence . No chance , what's the other option? Labour calls for a vote of confidence in itself , all the Tories need to do is abstain quoting the fixed term parliament act and saying they believe in it completely . Or say they don't feel the country is ready for the uncertainty of another election . Well, Cameron has said that if he doesn't become PM after this election then he'll step down as leader of the Tories so a change at the top could prompt some voters to come back to them. Having an affable charismatic guy like Boris "Watermelon Smile" Johnson or a stern authoritarian like Theresa May in charge of leading another election campaign will bring some new blood to the party meaning that they may be able to win a majority - especially if it's proven that Labour couldn't form a stable government without support from the SNP which has proven to be very divisive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wes Tender Posted 5 May, 2015 Share Posted 5 May, 2015 Well, Cameron has said that if he doesn't become PM after this election then he'll step down as leader of the Tories so a change at the top could prompt some voters to come back to them. Having an affable charismatic guy like Boris "Watermelon Smile" Johnson or a stern authoritarian like Theresa May in charge of leading another election campaign will bring some new blood to the party meaning that they may be able to win a majority - especially if it's proven that Labour couldn't form a stable government without support from the SNP which has proven to be very divisive. To my mind, there has emerged a possible future candidate for leader of the Conservatives during this campaign. Ruth Davidson has been impressive. But that will depend on her keeping her seat in Scotland, although I don't understand how that worked in 2010, when on the face of it she was elected by some form of PR from the Glasgow list. She performed very well in the TV debates and even though the SNP took most of the limelight, she held her own on Conservative policy in Scotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade Garrett Posted 6 May, 2015 Share Posted 6 May, 2015 I predict a riot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatch Posted 6 May, 2015 Share Posted 6 May, 2015 Tory 284 Lab 262 SNP 51 LD 25 UKIP 5 PC 3 Greens 1 Indi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperMikey Posted 6 May, 2015 Share Posted 6 May, 2015 (edited) To my mind, there has emerged a possible future candidate for leader of the Conservatives during this campaign. Ruth Davidson has been impressive. But that will depend on her keeping her seat in Scotland, although I don't understand how that worked in 2010, when on the face of it she was elected by some form of PR from the Glasgow list. She performed very well in the TV debates and even though the SNP took most of the limelight, she held her own on Conservative policy in Scotland. To be fair i'm not a big fan of the Tories (say whaaaaaat?) but Davidson does always put in a good performance whenever I see her on Question Time or on Leader's debates. I don't think she's directly in line for the leadership throne because of the other 2 I mentioned before but I can definitely see her becoming Tory leader in the future if she carries on in politics. Edited 6 May, 2015 by SuperMikey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wes Tender Posted 6 May, 2015 Share Posted 6 May, 2015 To be fair i'm not a big fan of the Tories (say whaaaaaat?) but Davidson does always put in a good performance whenever I see her on Question Time or on Leader's debates. I don't think she's directly in line for the leadership throne because of the other 2 I mentioned before but I can definitely see her becoming Tory leader in the future if she carries on in politics. I think that it was on QT in Glasgow I believe, that I saw her perfom very well. That would be as partisan an audience as it could possibly be and I'm sure that most front-bench Tories would have received a lot of flack. But she was very even-handed and composed in her answers, which commanded respect and the audience listened to what she had to say even though they may not all have agreed with her points. I believe that Cameron thinks very highly of her and IMO she would be more acceptable than Boris Johnson and Theresa May, both in the Conservative Party and the country. She has the benefit of the common touch and her background is far more humble than any of the other major party leaders, so there wouldn't be this nonsense about the party leaders being toffs, out of touch with the average voter. She has risen to where she is now through her own efforts and skills, so she can speak with conviction based on experience. It wouldn't surprise me if she was the next female PM some time in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upwind Posted 6 May, 2015 Share Posted 6 May, 2015 Very young and also a clam jouster - she could do well..... Or we could have the Boris show for entertainment value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 Ok, where shall I start... - The highest that the Tories have polled at in the last month or so would give them 276 seats max. Unsure where the extra 30 or so you're predicting will come from. (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection) Well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatch Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 LD having their pants pulled down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hutch Posted 8 May, 2015 Author Share Posted 8 May, 2015 Well Be gentle with him, Brett. It's his first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 Agree. An anti tory ticket is only going to persuade those who would never have voted tory in the first place. Told you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hutch Posted 8 May, 2015 Author Share Posted 8 May, 2015 Thats a spectacularly ill informed view imo. Its too close to say who will win, but Labour are clearly going to have more seats and the Conservatives and Lib Dems both fewer. In 2010 the Tories got 36% of the vote, Labour 29% and the LDs 23%. The poll numbers now are around 34%, 33% and 8%. The most likely result imo is that the Tories will be the largest party by a narrow margin but will be unable to find a coalition partner. They will then either accept they cant govern, at which point Labour will be asked to form a government - or they will try and run a minority government. Running a minority government with a 70 seat plus deficit would be all but impossible or, on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Special K Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 or, on the other hand... Lol! for a "spectacularly ill informed" opinion you did quite well, hutch. Make sure you do those lottery numbers on the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 Thats a spectacularly ill informed view imo. Its too close to say who will win, but Labour are clearly going to have more seats and the Conservatives and Lib Dems both fewer. In 2010 the Tories got 36% of the vote, Labour 29% and the LDs 23%. The poll numbers now are around 34%, 33% and 8%. The most likely result imo is that the Tories will be the largest party by a narrow margin but will be unable to find a coalition partner. They will then either accept they cant govern, at which point Labour will be asked to form a government - or they will try and run a minority government. Running a minority government with a 70 seat plus deficit would be all but impossible nice one Tim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 Conservative have 306 seats now. I believe they will add to that. is that really so bizarre a claim? Like I said, given that they've polled at a maximum of 276 seats to this point in their campaign (which has been a p!ss poor effort as well) I don't think even the floating voters will gain them more seats than they have now. I could maybe see them coming in at around 290 or so but no more. Fully prepared to have this shoved in my face on Friday morning but this whole thing has been a disaster for the Tories from start to finish and I don't see them coming away from this smiling. As for my prediction, Labour to form a minority government with support from Lib Dems & others which will last a year tops before another election is called. Call Me Dave to resign from his post as Tory leader and either Boris or Theresa May to take his place. Tories to be forced more to the right in order to prise back vote from UKIP. in your face mikey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadoldgit Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 For all those celebrating this morning - more cuts in public services. More cuts to the NHS. Another 5 years of austerity. Happy days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 For all those celebrating this morning - more cuts in public services. More cuts to the NHS. Another 5 years of austerity. Happy days. you speak as if it would be much different if Labour won. I thought the NHS given more money this Govt??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 The polls have been wrong before, it would be interesting to see how they get their figures. I can see the Tories increasing their number of seats but the Lib Dems being almost wiped out so I dunno what sort of government there will be. Looks like i was right all along. Who the f*ck gets paid to do these opinion polls - should be fired the lot of them. They canvassed thousands of people and used experts in politics and statistics, I based my prediction of the fact that Milliband is an unelectable ***t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 For all those celebrating this morning - more cuts in public services. More cuts to the NHS. Another 5 years of austerity. Happy days. What cuts to the NHS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 8 May, 2015 Share Posted 8 May, 2015 Lol! for a "spectacularly ill informed" opinion you did quite well, hutch. Make sure you do those lottery numbers on the weekend! Okay the polls were spectacularly ill informed, not Hutch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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