2015 General Election result prediction thread

[hutch]

So, when reality finally bites, where will we be?

 

For me Labour blew it. "Vote for me to kick Cameron out of Downing Street" isn't really a policy.

 

So I go for Tories slightly more seats, Labour quite a lot less, SNP more, but far short of all, LibDem about the same, and UKIP no seats.

 

And another five years of Con Lib coalition.

[hypochondriac]

So, when reality finally bites, where will we be?

 

For me Labour blew it. "Vote for me to kick Cameron out of Downing Street" isn't really a policy.

 

So I go for Tories slightly more seats, Labour quite a lot less, SNP more, but far short of all, LibDem about the same, and UKIP no seats.

 

And another five years of Con Lib coalition.

 

Agree. An anti tory ticket is only going to persuade those who would never have voted tory in the first place.

[View From The Top]

Tory minority government and another election before Xmas.

[View From The Top]

Agree. An anti tory ticket is only going to persuade those who would never have voted tory in the first place.

 

Disagree. It's been aimed squarely at the floating voter who has been impacted by cuts. It's been a shrewd message and been hard for the tories to counter.

[buctootim]

I go for Tories slightly more seats, Labour quite a lot less, SNP more, but far short of all, LibDem about the same, and UKIP no seats. And another five years of Con Lib coalition.

 

Thats a spectacularly ill informed view imo. Its too close to say who will win, but Labour are clearly going to have more seats and the Conservatives and Lib Dems both fewer. In 2010 the Tories got 36% of the vote, Labour 29% and the LDs 23%. The poll numbers now are around 34%, 33% and 8%.

 

The most likely result imo is that the Tories will be the largest party by a narrow margin but will be unable to find a coalition partner. They will then either accept they cant govern, at which point Labour will be asked to form a government - or they will try and run a minority government. Running a minority government with a 70 seat plus deficit would be all but impossible

Edited 5 May, 2015 by buctootim

[Jonnyboy]

Green, SNP and Plaid Rainbow Coalition leading to a new Western Spring spreading peace round the world.

[SuperMikey]

Green, SNP and Plaid Rainbow Coalition leading to a new Western Spring spreading peace round the world.

 

I dream of that day

[KelvinsRightGlove]

I dream of that day

 

FREE HUGS FOR ALL!!!

 

Anyway, no need to think. It's been sorted: http://www.kotaku.co.uk/2015/05/05/the-2015-uk-election-results-according-to-the-sims

[LGTL]

One thing is for certain, Cameron will be praying for a Labour/Lib Dem coalition. There's no way he actually wants to win this.

[Wes Tender]

Thats a spectacularly ill informed view imo. Its too close to say who will win, but Labour are clearly going to have many more seats and the Lib Dems far fewer. Labour got 29% of the vote in 2010 and the LDs 23%. The poll numbers now are around 33% and 8%.

 

Although on the face of it it is too close to call, nothing is "clearly" going to happen with any degree of certainty, so Hutch's prediction is as valid as yours.

 

You appear to have overlooked the probability that Labour will be anihilated in Scotland, so presumably you mean that Labour and the SNP taken together will have more seats than in 2010.

 

The opinion polls have sufficient margins built into them to allow an array of possibilities. There are several factors that they cannot take into account like tactical voting in marginal seats. How many who voted Lib Dem the last time will change this time around because they were upset that they went into coalition with the Tories? How many UKIP voters saw that their votes in some constituencies let in Labour or the Lib Dems? How will the rise of the SNP party affect people's voting intentions when it looks very likely that they might be the tail that wags the Labour dog? Which party is trusted with the economy and which the NHS? How big a part will immigration play in certain areas of the country? Those are just a few of the things that might determine the result and it would be unlikely that a uniform result will play out across the country because people have different priorities in different areas.

[CB Saint]

Who ever gets in I hope they form a coalition with a majority and not a minority government - a minority government will be a nightmare for the country

[Johnny Bognor]

Tory largest party, but coalition between Labour and SNP, which quickly falls apart, resulting in another general election.

 

The J-Crap party will register their first vote, although the movement won't get off the ground quick enough to save the country.

[Tamesaint]

Its easy to predict:

 

 

Cons 278 seats

Labour 272

SNP 55

LibDems 22

UKIP 2

Others 21

 

You heard it here first.

[Batman]

Conservative/Liberal coalition with support of UKiP on the basis that we WILL have an EU referendum in 2 years. With the 326+ seats between them

 

Conservative to Get around 308 seats, Liberals will take a hit but not as much as expected

Labour will take a huge hit in scotland but not as much as expected

UKiP will add Farage to the commons and their 'share' of the vote will go up and they will come 2nd in many places people would not expect

SNP will just gob off to everyone and make out that the coalition is an oppressive regime

Greens will have no MPs despite their 'share' of the vote being decent for them

 

there will be election reform by the next general election in that the constituency boundaries will be re-drawn

[buctootim]

You appear to have overlooked the probability that Labour will be anihilated in Scotland, so presumably you mean that Labour and the SNP taken together will have more seats than in 2010.

 

You seem to have overlooked the fact that Labour are polling 33% compared with 29% last time despite being annihilated in Scotland since 2010. That means their share of the English vote is up by proportionally more. It would be interesting to see an England only poll because the Scottish situation is hiding what is happening in England. I suspect Labour will do better than expected.

Edited 5 May, 2015 by buctootim

[Colinjb]

Welcome to a new period of prosperity/regime of desolation.

 

Delete as appropriate based on your political compass.

[SuperMikey]

Conservative/Liberal coalition with support of UKiP on the basis that we WILL have an EU referendum in 2 years. With the 326+ seats between them

 

Conservative to Get around 308 seats, Liberals will take a hit but not as much as expected

Labour will take a huge hit in scotland but not as much as expected

UKiP will add Farage to the commons and their 'share' of the vote will go up and they will come 2nd in many places people would not expect

SNP will just gob off to everyone and make out that the coalition is an oppressive regime

Greens will have no MPs despite their 'share' of the vote being decent for them

 

there will be election reform by the next general election in that the constituency boundaries will be re-drawn

 

Ok, where shall I start...

 

- Lib Dems have categorically ruled out entering a coalition with UKIP (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/election-2015-lib-dem-leader-nick-clegg-rules-out-coalition-ukip-snp-1497307)

- The highest that the Tories have polled at in the last month or so would give them 276 seats max. Unsure where the extra 30 or so you're predicting will come from. (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection)

- Support for UKIP seems to be fairly centered in the South East, mostly Kent. Don't think they poll too well north of the Watford gap so unlikely we'll see them come 2nd anywhere outside that region.

- The SNP gobbing off will almost certainly happen

- Caroline Lucas is almost certain to retain Brighton Pavillion and it looks like Darren Hall may take Bristol West as well.

[Bearsy]

Do we know who is going to win this yet? I'm thinking of doing my first ever vote, but i don't want to waste it on a dumb Loser. I'm thinking the one guy who's doing it at the moment will probably win, cos the other guy seems to have a speech impediment. Is that prob a reasonable analysis?

[Batman]

Ok, where shall I start...

 

- Lib Dems have categorically ruled out entering a coalition with UKIP (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/election-2015-lib-dem-leader-nick-clegg-rules-out-coalition-ukip-snp-1497307)

- The highest that the Tories have polled at in the last month or so would give them 276 seats max. Unsure where the extra 30 or so you're predicting will come from. (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection)

- Support for UKIP seems to be fairly centered in the South East, mostly Kent. Don't think they poll too well north of the Watford gap so unlikely we'll see them come 2nd there.

- The SNP gobbing off will almost certainly happen

- Caroline Lucas is almost certain to retain Brighton Pavillion and it looks like Darren Hall may take Bristol West as well.

 

unsure.? I remember being a young lad (12 years old) and my nan partying the night she voted as Kinnock winning for labour was an absolute dead cert..

Dead cert is probably too strong but the Tory's were out, that is what everyone expected at LEAST.

the nation was in a horrible state, deep recession, poll tax and just finished a war in the middle east, this was just after maggie left after 11 years in power

No one wanted another 4-5 years of the Conservatives who have been in power since 1979.....

People shouted down conservative claims that labour would enable an open door immigration policy etc

 

Conservatives won outright

Edited 5 May, 2015 by Batman

[SuperMikey]

unsure.? I remember being a young lad (12 years old) and my nan partying the night she voted as Kinnock winning for labour was an absolute dead cert..

Dead cert is probably too strong but the Tory's were out, that is what everyone expected at LEAT.

the nation was in a horrible state, poll tax and just finished a war in the middle east, this was just after maggie left.....

People shouted down conservative claims that labour would enable an open door immigration policy etc

 

Conservatives won outright

 

I know there are a lot of floating voters that may be tempted to go Conservative at the polls, but there aren't enough marginal seats to cover an additional 30 for them. They'll increase their vote share on what they're polling at now, undoubtedly, but I don't think they'll get enough seats to form a coalition. I think we're almost certain to get a minority government and probably another election within 12 months.

[Batman]

I know there are a lot of floating voters that may be tempted to go Conservative at the polls, but there aren't enough marginal seats to cover an additional 30 for them. They'll increase their vote share on what they're polling at now, undoubtedly, but I don't think they'll get enough seats to form a coalition. I think we're almost certain to get a minority government and probably another election within 12 months.

 

Conservative have 306 seats now. I believe they will add to that. is that really so bizarre a claim?

[SuperMikey]

Conservative have 306 seats now. I believe they will add to that. is that really so bizarre a claim?

 

Like I said, given that they've polled at a maximum of 276 seats to this point in their campaign (which has been a p!ss poor effort as well) I don't think even the floating voters will gain them more seats than they have now. I could maybe see them coming in at around 290 or so but no more. Fully prepared to have this shoved in my face on Friday morning but this whole thing has been a disaster for the Tories from start to finish and I don't see them coming away from this smiling.

 

As for my prediction, Labour to form a minority government with support from Lib Dems & others which will last a year tops before another election is called. Call Me Dave to resign from his post as Tory leader and either Boris or Theresa May to take his place. Tories to be forced more to the right in order to prise back vote from UKIP.

[hutch]

Do we know who is going to win this yet? I'm thinking of doing my first ever vote, but i don't want to waste it on a dumb Loser. I'm thinking the one guy who's doing it at the moment will probably win, cos the other guy seems to have a speech impediment. Is that prob a reasonable analysis?

Yep. Nutshell.

[Hockey_saint]

Disagree. It's been aimed squarely at the floating voter who has been impacted by cuts. It's been a shrewd message and been hard for the tories to counter.

 

Pretty sure the only ticket the tories (as usual) seem to be riding is an anti-Labour one....blah blah blah "we've got this (may be ******** but we'll flog it to death) note!!....You heard it here!!!...there's no money left!!!!!!"....

 

 

Pity they ignored the Labour note in 1978 suggesting not to remove the garrison at Port Stanley wasn't it? Because war's cost a hell of a lot you know?....but hey, continue with more nonsense.....

[bridge too far]

I heard yesterday that Tory supporters in Clegg's constituency (Sheffield Hallam?) are being urged to vote Labour to get him out!

[badgerx16]

Green, SNP and Plaid Rainbow Coalition leading to a new Western Spring spreading peace round the world.

 

Which clan's tartan would that be ?

[aintforever]

Like I said, given that they've polled at a maximum of 276 seats to this point in their campaign (which has been a p!ss poor effort as well) I don't think even the floating voters will gain them more seats than they have now. I could maybe see them coming in at around 290 or so but no more. Fully prepared to have this shoved in my face on Friday morning but this whole thing has been a disaster for the Tories from start to finish and I don't see them coming away from this smiling.

 

As for my prediction, Labour to form a minority government with support from Lib Dems & others which will last a year tops before another election is called. Call Me Dave to resign from his post as Tory leader and either Boris or Theresa May to take his place. Tories to be forced more to the right in order to prise back vote from UKIP.

 

The polls have been wrong before, it would be interesting to see how they get their figures.

 

I can see the Tories increasing their number of seats but the Lib Dems being almost wiped out so I dunno what sort of government there will be.

[badgerx16]

Conservative have 306 seats now. I believe they will add to that. is that really so bizarre a claim?

 

I don't think they will gain any seats, Labour will swing a few northern marginals, and the Cons may also lose a couple to UKIP.

[bridge too far]

I don't think they will gain any seats, Labour will swing a few northern marginals, and the Cons may also lose a couple to UKIP.

 

And I think some London marginals will go to Labour too

[Torres]

Ashcroft's (that Lord Ashcroft, not Dan Ashcroft) latest blog makes interesting reading. Not so much in the headline numbers, which reflect most of the other national polls, but in the comments from some of the focus groups.

 

This week’s focus groups took place in Pudsey, Rossendale & Darwen and Hazel Grove, two very close Conservative-Labour marginals and a seat where the Liberal Democrats are seeking to fend off the Tories.

 

The most interesting thing about the election was the uncertainty of its outcome, which in many cases mirrored their own uncertainty as to how to vote.

 

This was particularly the case for Labour supporters who had, for one reason or another, voted Lib Dem in 2010, inadvertently helping to install the Tory-led coalition. “I voted Lib Dem last time as a protest against Labour. I couldn’t go Conservative, but we needed a change. That bit me in the arse, didn’t it?” The problem was acute for some in Hazel Grove: “I’m torn between going with my heart and a tactical vote. If Labour are a poor third, and I vote tactically for the Lib Dems, that might keep the Conservatives in anyway. But if I go Labour, that might throw it straight to the Tories.”

 

I wonder how many other natural Labour voters are mulling that one over?

 

Also some interesting stuff about Miliband not being the **** people thought, the potential role of the SNP and the main party leaders, including:

 

And David Cameron? “Is his wife Spanish?” No, that’s Nick Clegg. “Oh well, I bet they all get together. Car keys in the bowl…” Steady on. What else? “Family man.” “Always on holiday”. “Eton, Bullingdon.” “Doesn’t know which football team he supports”. “He’s Kim Kardashian’s third cousin.” “He left one of his children in the pub. But that’s OK, I’ve left mine outside the Post Office.”

 

 

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-30-lib-dem-11-ukip-12-green-7/#more-11570

Edited 5 May, 2015 by Torres
Added link

[Jonnyboy]

Which clan's tartan would that be ?

 

The gays of course

[badgerx16]

The gays of course

 

Would that be the Gordons ?

[Lord Duckhunter]

Why are people saying x minority , " followed by another election" . Have they not heard of the fixed term parliament act . In order to ensure their grubby coalition would last the establishment brought this in . Basically you'll need labour & Tories to vote together to end the parliament ( you need a 2/3 majority ) . The very nature of politics means there will never be a situation when it'll be in both parties interests to dissolve parliament . If one party wanted to dissolve it, you can bet your bottom dollar the other wouldn't . If labour wanted a quick election to seek a mandate without the SNP, the Tories will oppose it , and if the Tories wanted to bring down labour , they'd oppose it , and obviously visa versa. The coalition have fundamentally changed parliament with his . Previously if you lost the confidence of parliament , it was dissolved . Now , due to the fixed term act it isn't .

 

If labour were limping along , unable to legislate without the SNP, unable to control the timetable , why on earth would the Tories give them the get out of another election . Let them limp on for 3/4 years , presiding over a shambles , they'd then be a shoe in after that ( the same applies in reverse)

[Whitey Grandad]

Why are people saying x minority , " followed by another election" . Have they not heard of the fixed term parliament act . In order to ensure their grubby coalition would last the establishment brought this in . Basically you'll need labour & Tories to vote together to end the parliament ( you need a 2/3 majority ) . The very nature of politics means there will never be a situation when it'll be in both parties interests to dissolve parliament . If one party wanted to dissolve it, you can bet your bottom dollar the other wouldn't . If labour wanted a quick election to seek a mandate without the SNP, the Tories will oppose it , and if the Tories wanted to bring down labour , they'd oppose it , and obviously visa versa. The coalition have fundamentally changed parliament with his . Previously if you lost the confidence of parliament , it was dissolved . Now , due to the fixed term act it isn't .

 

If labour were limping along , unable to legislate without the SNP, unable to control the timetable , why on earth would the Tories give them the get out of another election . Let them limp on for 3/4 years , presiding over a shambles , they'd then be a shoe in after that ( the same applies in reverse)

 

Maybe we should have a Conservative - Labour coalition. That should please everybody.

[Patrick Bateman]

I don't think they will gain any seats, Labour will swing a few northern marginals, and the Cons may also lose a couple to UKIP.

 

I will be gobsmacked if they get ANY seats.

[badgerx16]

Why are people saying x minority , " followed by another election" . Have they not heard of the fixed term parliament act . In order to ensure their grubby coalition would last the establishment brought this in . Basically you'll need labour & Tories to vote together to end the parliament ( you need a 2/3 majority ) . The very nature of politics means there will never be a situation when it'll be in both parties interests to dissolve parliament . If one party wanted to dissolve it, you can bet your bottom dollar the other wouldn't . If labour wanted a quick election to seek a mandate without the SNP, the Tories will oppose it , and if the Tories wanted to bring down labour , they'd oppose it , and obviously visa versa. The coalition have fundamentally changed parliament with his . Previously if you lost the confidence of parliament , it was dissolved . Now , due to the fixed term act it isn't .

 

If labour were limping along , unable to legislate without the SNP, unable to control the timetable , why on earth would the Tories give them the get out of another election . Let them limp on for 3/4 years , presiding over a shambles , they'd then be a shoe in after that ( the same applies in reverse)

 

They could lose a Motion of No Confidence. ( There is a provision that within 14 days a Motion of Confidence can be used to overturn this ).

[Jonnyboy]

I will be gobsmacked if they get ANY seats.

 

Its going to be highly amusing if Farage doesnt get in as he's said he'll quit politics.

[Seaside Saint 2]

Like I said, given that they've polled at a maximum of 276 seats to this point in their campaign (which has been a p!ss poor effort as well) I don't think even the floating voters will gain them more seats than they have now. I could maybe see them coming in at around 290 or so but no more. Fully prepared to have this shoved in my face on Friday morning but this whole thing has been a disaster for the Tories from start to finish and I don't see them coming away from this smiling.

 

As for my prediction, Labour to form a minority government with support from Lib Dems & others which will last a year tops before another election is called. Call Me Dave to resign from his post as Tory leader and either Boris or Theresa May to take his place. Tories to be forced more to the right in order to prise back vote from UKIP.

 

I think you're right, no incumbent British government has increased their share of the vote at an election since WWII, so seems unlikely that the Tories will do anything more than hold steady at best.

[Ex Lion Tamer]

They could lose a Motion of No Confidence. ( There is a provision that within 14 days a Motion of Confidence can be used to overturn this ).

LD as well informed as ever there

[Gemmel]

As stupid as it sounds, The Sun (Newspaper) still have a hand to play in this.

 

The front page of "Will the last one out, please turn off the lights" Saw a four per cent shift in the polls, which I guess gives an insight into some voters, but they will back Cameron and slate milliband, at some point this week.

[Ex Lion Tamer]

My prediction: Tories ahead by 9 seats. but can't get enough support for Queens speech.

 

Labour forms minority government. Clegg and Cameron both resign.

 

While not easy, government gets surprising amount done, with support of SNP on some bills and tories on others.

 

Of course, I could be very wrong so don't throw this back at me in a month's time!

[Lord Duckhunter]

They could lose a Motion of No Confidence. ( There is a provision that within 14 days a Motion of Confidence can be used to overturn this ).

 

But my point still stands , Why on earth would the government of the day support a no confidence vote in itself ? And why would the opposition even call for a no confidence vote if their opponents were leading a shambles .Previously the government could just call an election , now that option is lost to them . They have to rely on the opposition , who will be acting in the best way possible for themselves and the worst way for the government .

[Lord Duckhunter]

Its going to be highly amusing if Farage doesnt get in as he's said he'll quit politics.

 

He said he'd quit as leader of the party .

[Ex Lion Tamer]

But my point still stands , Why on earth would the government of the day support a no confidence vote in itself ? And why would the opposition even call for a no confidence vote if their opponents were leading a shambles .Previously the government could just call an election , now that option is lost to them . They have to rely on the opposition , who will be acting in the best way possible for themselves and the worst way for the government .

To be fair, your logic is pretty sound

[Jonnyboy]

He said he'd quit as leader of the party .

 

Fuksake.

[Torres]

But my point still stands , Why on earth would the government of the day support a no confidence vote in itself ? .

 

 

Very good question - why would it?

 

Also, what the hell are you on about? You only need a majority of 1 to carry a no confidence motion.

[buctootim]

As stupid as it sounds, The Sun (Newspaper) still have a hand to play in this.

 

The front page of "Will the last one out, please turn off the lights" Saw a four per cent shift in the polls, which I guess gives an insight into some voters, but they will back Cameron and slate milliband, at some point this week.

 

Last time the Sun had supported Labour previously and then switched at the 2010 election to the Tories. It was the Sun changing sides that pulled some voters with them. Simply backing Cameron again wont have the effect on voting patterns that switching back to Labour would.

[hypochondriac]

Disagree. It's been aimed squarely at the floating voter who has been impacted by cuts. It's been a shrewd message and been hard for the tories to counter.

 

Hasn't affected the polls though has it.

[Gemmel]

Last time the Sun had supported Labour previously and then switched at the 2010 election to the Tories. It was the Sun changing sides that pulled some voters with them. Simply backing Cameron again wont have the effect on voting patterns that switching back to Labour would.

 

I'm not sure if I am reading you post correctly or not, but with Kinnock they effected the result and the Tories won. They did back Blair and Blair won, they did back Cameron last time and he (Sort of) won.. You seem to be agreeing that they have had some influence in previous elections, but this time it won't count.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Very good question - why would it?

 

Also, what the hell are you on about? You only need a majority of 1 to carry a no confidence motion.

 

How on earth are the Tories going to get a majority of 1 if there's labour minority government ? The fact that there's a labour minority government means that the Tories / lib dumbs will be well short of any majority . Who is going to vote down a labour government ? The snp ? Well that's one way to lose all their gains , and screw up their chances in the '16 jock elections . 1 Green mp, 3 or 4 taffys ? Gerry Adams mob. The dup maybe and ukip , but that won't be enough.That's even if you get a confidence vote . Who do you think is going to call a confidence vote to put a lame duck government out of its misery?