Jump to content

First half v Second half of season

Deano6

By Deano6,
in The Saints

 Share

Recommended Posts

Deano6

Deano6

Posted
Posted

What's everyone's views on our performance in the first half of the season v second half (15 games in to the latter)? My sense is that we have trailed off a little from the first half (obvious when you see the teams that have caught us, but I'm thinking more of the ****ty points dropped in games), but that it is in comparison to a pretty phenomenal first half of the season when we practically beat everyone that we were 'expected' to. But then I have to square that away with the fact that we have had terrific performances against the better teams in the second half, when we couldn't get any love from them at the start of the season.

 

So I decided to look into it and pull out some statistics. Yes - I know all statistics are made up and can't tell you anything ever, but all I'm doing is counting so settle down!

 

I got hold of our points (per game, to make it comparable given different numbers of games played), goals for and goals against in the first and second halves of the season. I also split it out between "top 6" teams and "the rest".

 

zjcu83.png

 

Some things that struck me:

 

 

  • I was surpised to see that our Points Per Game is almost identical over both halves of the season, so there's not really been a slowdown since Christmas (around 1.7 ppg).

 

 

  • However there's been a pretty obvious split between results against the top teams and the rest...
  • In first half of the season we averaged 2.5 points per game against the non-Top 6 teams. That is unbelievably good. I would be surprised if even Chelsea and Man City would boast those figures. It's highly unreasonable to expect to sustain that over a season.
  • That's then coupled with only getting the one point from Chelsea out of the Top 6 in the first half. And that came around Christmas (I was there, Hi Mum!), so basically right at the halfway point in the season.

 

 

  • In the second half of the season, our performances against Top 6 and the rest have been pretty similar. In fact if we had gone on to beat Spurs yesterday, we would be averaging more from Top 6 than the rest. (I know you can't pick and choose results to have gone differently, but I just did!)
  • The 1.7 points per game against other teams still looks pretty good overall for the league, but it doesn't feel like the kind of form that gets you into the Top 6 (I don't have data on other teams, but would be an interesting comparison).

 

 

  • Looking at goals scored, it's a very similar story. Few goals v Top 6 in first half of the season vs many against rest (of course there's 8 v Sunderland, but even without it would look healthy).
  • As we have all been v aware of, the goals have dried up to some extent in the second half - especially in that awful spell between Swansea and Palace.
  • Perhaps an interesting observation in the second half is that we have scored MORE goals in games against Top 6 teams than the rest. Is this evidence of the other teams "shutting up shop" against us, while the Top 6 play their own game?

 

 

  • However the surprise of the day for me is that despite how much our defence was lauded in the first half of the season for conceding so few goals, we have actually conceded LESS goals in the second half of the season (0.7 vs 0.8 goals per game). While there has been a small uptick in the games against the lower teams, we have really shut up shop in games against the Top 6. Although we still have Man City to play, so maybe they'll see us right by the end! ;)

 

 

Anything else come out of this, for those with an analytical mind? What would be interesting for me is to see comparable stats for other teams, particularly those around us. I have neither the time nor inclination to go further, but maybe a future blog for Redslo to pursue!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ohio Saint

Ohio Saint

Posted
Posted

I dunno how much it alters the overall image, but it's worth remembering that the top 6 in the first half of the season was waiting for some of the big boys to catch up. Who can forget the way Accrington Stanley topped the table for the first seven weeks before dropping off?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted (edited)

When we had played every single fixture humanly possible, including a FA Cup third round replay and up to the LC quarter finals , we were sitting pretty in the top four back on January 24th ish.

 

Thankfully we granted the wishes of some of our expert supporters and got dumped out of both cups, providing the team with so much delicious rest, recuperation and relaxation, enabling us to completely focus on the job in hand and finish in the top four.

 

And fair play we've never looked back, have we? Fingers crossed for more early cup exits next season, they've sorted us right out this year they have.

Edited by CB Fry
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mr Biscuits

Mr Biscuits

Posted
Posted
When we had played every single fixture humanly possible, including a FA Cup third round replay and up to the LC quarter finals , we were sitting pretty in the top four back on January 24th ish.

 

Thankfully we granted the wishes of some of our expert supporters and got dumped out of both cups, providing the team with so much delicious rest, recuperation and relaxation, enabling us to completely focus on the job in hand and finish in the top four.

 

And fair play we've never looked back, have we? Fingers crossed for more early cup exits next season, they've sorted us right out this year they have.

 

My sarcasm detector just exploded

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mrfahaji

mrfahaji

Posted
Posted
Perhaps an interesting observation in the second half is that we have scored MORE goals in games against Top 6 teams than the rest. Is this evidence of the other teams "shutting up shop" against us, while the Top 6 play their own game?

 

I think this is a key point in your analysis, plus the league does tend to tighten up as everyone starts sussing each other out, teams play more cagily due to pressures at the bottom, or because they are missing key players. In addition to this coinciding (could also be the cause) with probably our most creative player (Tadic) and our biggest goal threat (Pelle) both losing form.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dalek2003

Dalek2003

Posted
Posted
When we had played every single fixture humanly possible, including a FA Cup third round replay and up to the LC quarter finals , we were sitting pretty in the top four back on January 24th ish.

 

Thankfully we granted the wishes of some of our expert supporters and got dumped out of both cups, providing the team with so much delicious rest, recuperation and relaxation, enabling us to completely focus on the job in hand and finish in the top four.

 

And fair play we've never looked back, have we? Fingers crossed for more early cup exits next season, they've sorted us right out this year they have.

 

An objective analysis as usual.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...