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Summer 2015 Hcdajfu thread ?


simo

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Well, having seen the film and as I'm currently reading the book (and have already read the football re-interpretation of it), I can confirm that's an oversimplification and it's not just about buying low and selling high, but actually about appreciating undervalued skills and delivering success from seeing those skills before others do - the value is already there, it's just obscured by bad analysis (eg that a hard-working wide man with defensive skills "doesn't score enough goals" when actually he's involved in the creation of chances for others to make assists, and preventing goals by pressing defenders and wide midfielders long before the ball gets near our goal).

 

Kinda like goalkeeper wins you more points than any other position, but they're the cheapest position for wages and to buy the transfer market.

 

Its about finding hidden and sometimes unlikely relationships in large data sets that otherwise go unnoticed to extract value.

 

But I've seen no evidence that those relationships meaningfully exist in football -compared to stats that everyone looks at (which are arguably not overvalued by the market). And even if Shane Long contributes to winning in other ways than just scoring goals -hence the dubious and illiterate references to MoneyBall (indeed I would argue Long's qualities are not overlooked by the transfer market, so again priced correctly), I've ultimately seen no evidence to suggest that contribution is worth anything like the £12m we forked out.

Edited by shurlock
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Has anyone actually seen Clasie play?

 

Yep. Went to see Feyenoord when we were away at Stoke. They lost one nil at home! What Classie will bring is passing accuracy and tempo. His positional play enables him to intercept the ball rather than make lots of tackles. Feyenoord kindly brought Valhena on at half time for us to watch. He looked lively and more direct than the other number 10's we have, and would be cheaper than Djuricic.

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Well yes, perhaps not at his best on that occasion though, in fact he was pretty awful but it was a Dutch international side against France and there was no Robben. I'm sure that he's better than that now. On that occasion he just simply did not exist in midfield against the French man mountains.

 

This is what worries me a little about us potentially signing Clasie as a replacement for Morgan and/or Wanyama. I'm sure he's a good player but we already have a number of short midfielders in the squad with Davis, JWP and Reed, so we could be leaving our midfield a bit vulnerable to more powerful opposition. Perhaps we should be targetting a midfielder with more stature like say Leroy Fer of QPR to give us a bit more balance in the squad?

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Van Der Vaart is available on a free this summer, would be nice to have some more creativity in midfield.

 

I never got why Spurs sold him. I always thought him and Bale were the reasons Spurs were in the Champions League, as opposed to the official media version of 'Arry being triffic.

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Its not really that though. Its more about the team than about individual players like that. The idea is that baseball can be broken down in to many constituent parts and although star players can often do them all, the star players can be replaced by average players that are good at one thing. So a player who tries to hit home runs etc the whole time and gets on to base is less effective than a guy who hits the ball a maximum of 1 yard but always gets on base etc.

 

It doesn't probably translate to footy that well anthe idea would be maybe that up front Beattie and Ormorod score 30 goals between them then that doesnt matter if Beattie scores all 30 and Ormorod none if he sets up all the goals. The partnership scores 30 which is as good as two 15 goal strikers. A 15 goal striker costs more than Ormorod but his attributes contribute the same to the overall stats of the team.

 

That's how i understand it anyway. Not sure that at 12m Long is truly a great Moneyball player - yes he works hard and this does create goals but whether this outweighs the other attributes you would expect from a 12m player is another thing

 

Agreed for anyone interested look up Sabermetrics, i have chuckled at the moneyball interpretations on here though

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Has anyone actually seen Clasie play?

 

I have watched him 6-7 times this season and for 12 mil I would be all over that like a playboy model asking if I can fit their thong for them.

 

Jordie Claise is very very good, excellent leader and more importantly will be one of those players who if they go to porto or italy for 2 yrs will cost double the price once his value is proved.

 

He is a warrior with more finesse than Vic and can move forward a la morgan to set up chances and score goals.

 

I also rate Vilhena though I think he is a longer term project than Jordy whose ready made now.

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I have watched him 6-7 times this season and for 12 mil I would be all over that like a playboy model asking if I can fit their thong for them.

 

Jordie Claise is very very good, excellent leader and more importantly will be one of those players who if they go to porto or italy for 2 yrs will cost double the price once his value is proved.

 

He is a warrior with more finesse than Vic and can move forward a la morgan to set up chances and score goals.

 

In the Dutch league.

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just saying while someone makes out he is amazing. he probably wont be

 

Not sure why the dutch league has this stigma attached to it. Suarez bit his teeth there (pardon the pun) and he didn't turn out too bad. Depay isn't going to be bad either, and he came from there. Ruud, Bony, Van Persie, Robben, Overmars, Eriksen, Vertonghen

, Vermaelen.

 

You'll get an Altidore every now and then, but generally the standard being sent over to this league is pretty good.

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Not sure why the dutch league has this stigma attached to it. Suarez bit his teeth there (pardon the pun) and he didn't turn out too bad. Depay isn't going to be bad either, and he came from there. Ruud, Bony, Van Persie, Robben, Overmars, Eriksen, Vertonghen

, Vermaelen.

 

You'll get an Altidore every now and then, but generally the standard being sent over to this league is pretty good.

 

fair point

Thought Tadic tailed off alarmingly for months and Pelle.......I wont go there lol

 

This claise chap does sound alright

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fair point

Thought Tadic tailed off alarmingly for months and Pelle.......I wont go there lol

 

This claise chap does sound alright

 

Tadic showed his quality, the problem is that he seemed to pickup an injury and that sort of pulled him back a bit. But he's a top player in my opinion.

 

Pelle gets stick, but he hit 16 goals this season and that's not a bad return really. More than Lukaku and co.

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Sergio Romero, Nigel de Jong and Andre-Pierre Gignac are also out of contract this summer, maybe worth a punt!?

 

I'd take Romero on a free at least for a year - him and KD as goalkeeper options until Fraser is back would be more than enough. Very good record for AZ back in the Eredivisie so Koeman will know of him and he's been a bit unlucky not to get more playing opportunities at club level since he left there. Was solid for Argentina in WC2014 as well.

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Tadic showed his quality, the problem is that he seemed to pickup an injury and that sort of pulled him back a bit. But he's a top player in my opinion.

 

Pelle gets stick, but he hit 16 goals this season and that's not a bad return really. More than Lukaku and co.

 

I think lukaku would have got 25 in our side.

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I'd take Romero on a free at least for a year - him and KD as goalkeeper options until Fraser is back would be more than enough. Very good record for AZ back in the Eredivisie so Koeman will know of him and he's been a bit unlucky not to get more playing opportunities at club level since he left there. Was solid for Argentina in WC2014 as well.

 

Would love that. Does have some of the 'typical' South American keeper tendencies but is a good standard keeper and, on a free, would be blinding business!

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I should point out that Leroy Fer has been relegated two years in a row now.

 

Yes, but wouldn't necessarily rule him out on that basis alone. Not sure if Fer is the right man or not TBH, but was just making the point that perhaps we need a midfielder with a bit more physical stature than Clasie when you look at the other midfielders in our squad (assuming we will lose at least 1 of Morgan/Vic).

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If we want to sign a midfield with good physical presence, we should look no further than Sissoko from Newcastle. Could probably get a move to a bigger club but Ashley will accept any reasonable bid for his players and he'd probably be quite keen to get as far away from that asylum as possible and you can't get much further away in the Prem than us!

 

Would be worth investing a large chunk of the funds from Morgan's sale this summer into imo, quality player with a goalscoring threat and a real box-to-box player.

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If we want to sign a midfield with good physical presence, we should look no further than Sissoko from Newcastle. Could probably get a move to a bigger club but Ashley will accept any reasonable bid for his players and he'd probably be quite keen to get as far away from that asylum as possible and you can't get much further away in the Prem than us!

 

Would be worth investing a large chunk of the funds from Morgan's sale this summer into imo, quality player with a goalscoring threat and a real box-to-box player.

 

I agree, Sissoko would be great for us. Great goal against West Ham, the kind of goal we just don't have anyone (midfield-wise) who could score at the moment.

 

There may be competition from CL clubs though if he is available.

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He's had a few injuries problems this season but always thought George Thorne looked a very good player. Decent defensive midfielder who can play a bit. I'm sure if he'd have been fit this season Derby would have finished higher.

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Sissoko would be a great replacement for Schneiderlin, played on the right for Newcastle mainly but plays that CM/CDM role for France really well.

 

I'd ignore everything to do with where he plays for Newcastle, Carver has no idea.

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Sissoko is a fine idea and all that, but you're looking at a £20m outlay. And a big salary commitment (£50,000+pw - pure speculation, ha) given that he's probably on a fair bit at a club like Newcastle. That fair enough, I guess, But I imagine we'd baulk at the transfer fee.

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Not sure why the dutch league has this stigma attached to it. Suarez bit his teeth there (pardon the pun) and he didn't turn out too bad. Depay isn't going to be bad either, and he came from there. Ruud, Bony, Van Persie, Robben, Overmars, Eriksen, Vertonghen

, Vermaelen.

 

You'll get an Altidore every now and then, but generally the standard being sent over to this league is pretty good.

 

It's more than an Altidore every now and again. Would say the failures outweigh the successes, or at the very least, are more evenly distributed than you suggest. Your point is weakened by the fact that you're citing players from a very different era -overmars, van persie, robben, van nistelrooy etc- when most observers will tell you that the league has fallen off in the last few years as other leagues have got richer and skimmed off players at an earlier age.

Edited by shurlock
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It's more than an Altidore every now and again. Would say the failures outweigh the successes, or at the very least, are more evenly distributed than you suggest. Your point is weakened by the fact that you're citing players from a very different era -overmars, van persie, robben, van nistelrooy etc- when most observers will tell you that the league has fallen off in the last few years as other leagues have got richer and skimmed off players at an earlier age.

Fair point.

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Yep. Went to see Feyenoord when we were away at Stoke. They lost one nil at home! What Classie will bring is passing accuracy and tempo. His positional play enables him to intercept the ball rather than make lots of tackles. Feyenoord kindly brought Valhena on at half time for us to watch. He looked lively and more direct than the other number 10's we have, and would be cheaper than Djuricic.

 

So .....Jack Cork then

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Sissoko is a fine idea and all that, but you're looking at a £20m outlay. And a big salary commitment (£50,000+pw - pure speculation, ha) given that he's probably on a fair bit at a club like Newcastle. That fair enough, I guess, But I imagine we'd baulk at the transfer fee.

 

Really? With Ashley in charge he's probably being paid in sports direct vouchers.

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If we lose morgan, lets try and get clasie and sissokho, both. Reckon 25m would do it

 

£25m for both?...that's dreaming. Ashley is a successful businessman (however loathable), not a pushover. A club the size of Newcastle (with their fanbase) aren't going to stomach selling their best player to a club like ours for anything other than a premium. The fans would revolt. Classless he (Ashley) may be, stupid he isn't. (As always, my opinion)

Edited by Donatello
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If you look at Ashley's policy over the last few years, it's to buy talent at a lowish price and then re-sell a few years later for double/3 times what they paid, so we wouldn't be getting Sissoko on the cheap if we did try.

 

You could say that their policy is similar to ours, but ours is done by people who actually know what they're doing.

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SSN reporting Spurs to bid 12m for Ings in-order to beat Liverpool to him.

 

Seems exceptionally "un-Levy-like"

 

http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11708/9866365/sky-sources-tottenham-set-to-bid-16312m-for-danny-ings

 

Can't see that happening. Why would you blast £12m on an out of contract player? Fair enough, there will be compo to arrange....but 12m, seriously?

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