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Summer 2015 Hcdajfu thread ?


simo

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Certainly not spending 12 million on Shane Long. The central concept of it is finding CHEAP players unwanted by other clubs who offer best value for money

 

It is not so much cheap and unwanted as value defined by getting what you need. For any club that can afford him Messi is a money ball player, for example.

 

Long could be viewed as a moneyball player by the club if they believed that he filled an important need and that need could not be filled for less money at the same or better level of quality.

 

alright, i really think austin would be good if we could get him cheaply. However, Newcastle really moving in on him as well, can't see why you'd move there over saints.

 

I am into the Eredivisie, some exiting teams and great fans especially Ajax ultra's. I think mattias johansson the RB could come good and he would also be about 4mi from AZ Alkmaar

 

Because Newcastle is going to win something before Ashley will sell the club.

Edited by Redslo
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It is not so much cheap and unwanted as value defined by getting what you need. For any club that can afford him Messi is a money ball player, for example.

 

Long could be viewed as a moneyball player by the club if they believed that he filled an important need and that need could not be filled for less money at the same or better level of quality.

 

'Moneyball' came about from a team that couldn't compete financially with bigger competitors and therefore had to source undervalued players. Nobody in their right mind would describe Shane Long at 12 million as undervalued, and the idea that we couldn't have got a very similar player to Long for less than 12 million is ridiculous.

 

I like Long, he's a decent player but he was never worth what we paid for him

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'Moneyball' came about from a team that couldn't compete financially with bigger competitors and therefore had to source undervalued players. Nobody in their right mind would describe Shane Long at 12 million as undervalued, and the idea that we couldn't have got a very similar player to Long for less than 12 million is ridiculous.

 

I like Long, he's a decent player but he was never worth what we paid for him

 

His definition of moneyball is absolutely correct. He was not saying that Shane Long was a moneyball player, but rather that he would still qualify as a moneyball player at £12m if we thought the skills he gave us made him worth far more than £12m.

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His definition of moneyball is absolutely correct. He was not saying that Shane Long was a moneyball player' date=' but rather that he would still qualify as a moneyball player at £12m if we thought the skills he gave us made him worth far more than £12m.[/quote']

 

Moneyball is a term describing sporting operations in which a team endeavors to analyze the market for players and buy what is undervalued and sell what is overvalued.

 

that is NOT shane Long

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Pelle is an easy target but has done well in his first season in a tough league, scoring a lot more goals in a season than Long ever has in his PL career.

 

He plays through knocks, takes the responsibility of being the main goalscorer and has scored vital goals for us this season, yet is patronised and suggested as the first man to ship out.

 

Long cost more, scored less, played less, had far less of an impact, doesn't score in big games, doesn't take responsibility to be a big source of goals etc and yet people like him a lot.

 

Unfair world and I assume you are the guys who always sing the Pelle song at SMS and were raving about him to your mates in November.

 

Pelle will be more than useful next season, and hopefully will have some proper competition, unlike this season.

 

Show the guy a bit of respect.

 

Amen to that!!

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Seems like the quotes have been slightly twisted to make it sound like he wants to go to another club, whereas all we've seen from him previously has been him saying he wants to stay here.

 

http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11700/9865318/southampton-defender-toby-alderweireld-wants-future-resolved

 

More balanced here and some additional quotes.

 

He will obviously weigh up all the offers he gets, as he should but we must have some chance unless a top 4 side comes in for him.

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http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11700/9865318/southampton-defender-toby-alderweireld-wants-future-resolved

 

More balanced here and some additional quotes.

 

He will obviously weigh up all the offers he gets, as he should but we must have some chance unless a top 4 side comes in for him.

Or a CL club from outside the PL. Ditto Morgan.

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http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11700/9865318/southampton-defender-toby-alderweireld-wants-future-resolved

 

More balanced here and some additional quotes.

 

He will obviously weigh up all the offers he gets, as he should but we must have some chance unless a top 4 side comes in for him.

 

Toby's loan move was such a shrewd one by the club, it gives me confidence for future transfer windows. We get a brilliant player for one whole season and then have the option to pay a ridiculously low amount to acquire him or get PAID for a player we don't even own. For me, the best move of that transfer window made by the club.

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Total Dutch Football@TotalDutchFB 18m18 minutes ago

#Feyenoord have set the asking price for Jordy Clasie on £12.7m.

Total Dutch Football@TotalDutchFB 14m

14 minutes ago

Not one club has officially made an bid for Clasie, but it's expected that #Southampton will be in pole position IF they sell Schneiderlin.

 

At that price I'd sign Clasie even if Schneiderlin doesn't leave.

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Total Dutch Football@TotalDutchFB 18m18 minutes ago

#Feyenoord have set the asking price for Jordy Clasie on £12.7m.

Total Dutch Football@TotalDutchFB 14m

14 minutes ago

Not one club has officially made an bid for Clasie, but it's expected that #Southampton will be in pole position IF they sell Schneiderlin.

 

£12.7 million for the Dutch Xavi makes me think he's no Xavi, but still £12.7 million for any player isn't much anymore. Based on past signings he's definitely in our price range.

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Darren Randolph left Brum over the weekend, has had a good season for them and BBC reporting that he's likely to go to a PL club. Given Saints might need a couple of keepers - Fraser out for most of next season, Kelvin perhaps focusing more on coaching and Gazza getting loaned out - HCDAJFU? Watford might prefer him to Gomes and Sunderland need a good keeper, perhaps Toon if Krul leaves but can't think of others that need a GK.

 

K Billy did hint at Martin Stekelenberg IIRC but if we do end up in Europe, we might need someone like Randolph as well, especially if the first choice replacement was a loan?

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£12.7 million for the Dutch Xavi makes me think he's no Xavi, but still £12.7 million for any player isn't much anymore. Based on past signings he's definitely in our price range.

 

 

I'd love it if we signed the Dutch Xavi. A nod back to our history and the days when we could boast the Latvian Micheal Owen and the Swedish David Beckham.

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No-one said Shane Long was a moneyball player. He gave the example of Shane Long IF we thought at £12m he was undervalued. Not that he thought Shane Long was undervalued at £12m.

 

There is an element of the Moneyball theory which says to sign players you have identified, when they are available, if the cost is acceptable. Long for £12m was obviously acceptable to the club given that he was on their list.

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There is an element of the Moneyball theory which says to sign players you have identified, when they are available, if the cost is acceptable. Long for £12m was obviously acceptable to the club given that he was on their list.

 

That's not Moneyball, that's simple budgetary discipline. Shane Long is anti-Moneyball.

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Darren Randolph left Brum over the weekend, ....

K Billy did hint at Martin Stekelenberg IIRC but if we do end up in Europe, we might need someone like Randolph as well, especially if the first choice replacement was a loan?

 

Saints linked with Adam Federici in local Reading paper. Available on a free but wants to be a first choice so more likely he will move elsewhere.

 

Not heard of the Brum bloke, but thought the strongest worded "rumour" was the Norwegian, Nyland.

 

Federici would be first choice for much of next season if he joins us, as Forseter is likely to be out for a long spell, and that is likely to be the nearest thing to a guarenteed starting space he's likely to get, asssuming we don't sign another GK as well.

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And moneyball means exactly? We've been invaded with yank speak again perhaps.

 

means you analyse the transfer market, buy someone at a low price, with the aim that they turn out to be worth far greater than that. Like Morgan, Clyne.

 

Why people think Shane Long fits into that I have no idea

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means you analyse the transfer market, buy someone at a low price, with the aim that they turn out to be worth far greater than that. Like Morgan, Clyne.

 

Why people think Shane Long fits into that I have no idea

 

Ah a good investment for the future then, got it now.

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Ah a good investment for the future then, got it now.

 

but thats not it is it. I thought it was more to do with finding players that are undervalued based on their stats

 

Thats how liverpool ended up with Downing, as he had the most accurate crosses relative to his price, and when added to Carroll having the most headed goals (or something along those lines), you end up with transfer gold

 

possibly the reason its not really a big thing in football and something I very much doubt we used for any of our signings

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means you analyse the transfer market, buy someone at a low price, with the aim that they turn out to be worth far greater than that. Like Morgan, Clyne.

 

Why people think Shane Long fits into that I have no idea

 

I think the OP was actually referring to sabermetrics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabermetrics), which was embraced by baseball as described by the film Moneyball. In this respect, it does fit with the discussion of Shane Long if you measure a strikers contribution only in terms of goals scored. Sabermetrics looks at other statistics and looks at the mechanics of how a player fits within a system. Why buy a 20 goal a season play for £30 million when he could be replaced by three 7 goal a season players for less (that is the theory at least).

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Ah a good investment for the future then, got it now.

 

Its not really that though. Its more about the team than about individual players like that. The idea is that baseball can be broken down in to many constituent parts and although star players can often do them all, the star players can be replaced by average players that are good at one thing. So a player who tries to hit home runs etc the whole time and gets on to base is less effective than a guy who hits the ball a maximum of 1 yard but always gets on base etc.

 

It doesn't probably translate to footy that well anthe idea would be maybe that up front Beattie and Ormorod score 30 goals between them then that doesnt matter if Beattie scores all 30 and Ormorod none if he sets up all the goals. The partnership scores 30 which is as good as two 15 goal strikers. A 15 goal striker costs more than Ormorod but his attributes contribute the same to the overall stats of the team.

 

That's how i understand it anyway. Not sure that at 12m Long is truly a great Moneyball player - yes he works hard and this does create goals but whether this outweighs the other attributes you would expect from a 12m player is another thing

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Has anyone actually seen Clasie play?

 

Well yes, perhaps not at his best on that occasion though, in fact he was pretty awful but it was a Dutch international side against France and there was no Robben. I'm sure that he's better than that now. On that occasion he just simply did not exist in midfield against the French man mountains.

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has anyone mentioned the Hull wingback El Hamody??? He strikes me as a hardworking and skill full player

 

Interesting you mention him, as it was noticeable he spent a long time on the pitch chatting with Ryan Bertrand after the Hull game at St Marys after all the other players had gone back down the tunnel......

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And moneyball means exactly? We've been invaded with yank speak again perhaps.

Now me I still walk on pavements.

 

Agreed. I love going to the US and have no problem with Americans. But their sports are sh*te (IMO) so please let's not bring their sporting ****** over here.

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Agreed. I love going to the US and have no problem with Americans. But their sports are sh*te (IMO) so please let's not bring their sporting ****** over here.

 

:lol:

agree with that. Imagine going to a live sports event that last hours and you have more than enough scope to fill your face with shyte in that time

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:lol:

agree with that. Imagine going to a live sports event that last hours and you have more than enough scope to fill your face with shyte in that time

 

Although I believe that partaking of a sort of collective picnic (because I can't spell picnicking like that) in the car park (or should that be parking lot) (think it's called tailgating or something) is part of the event. By the by tailgate is what I think they call the rear door on hatchback cars, no innuendo please:scared:

Edited by Window Cleaner
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That's not Moneyball, that's simple budgetary discipline. Shane Long is anti-Moneyball.

 

The application of the moneyball principles to football are easiest covered by Simon Kuper's Soccernomics book. Signing the players which have the characteristics you need when they are available is an underlying tenet of the whole thing.

 

Obviously the A's example was based on picking unpopular choices because they were cheap, but it also applies to taking the longer view, and identifying and then acquiring the talent you most need at the expense of a short term cost (and there are plenty of examples of them trading heavily to get players they wanted).

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means you analyse the transfer market, buy someone at a low price, with the aim that they turn out to be worth far greater than that. Like Morgan, Clyne.

 

Why people think Shane Long fits into that I have no idea

 

No it doesn't.

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has anyone mentioned the Hull wingback El Hamody??? He strikes me as a hardworking and skill full player

 

If you mean this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Elmohamady his front and centre Hull promotion celebration dancing antics whilst his teammates celebrated with each other tell me everything I need to know about his team ethic and suitability for Saints.

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No it doesn't.

 

it says so when you google it...

 

Moneyball is a term describing baseball operations in which a team endeavors to analyze the market for baseball players and buy what is undervalued and sell what is overvalued. Unlike a common misconception, it is not about OBP, but whatever is undervalued at that time. It is most commonly used to refer to the strategy used by the front office of the Oakland Athletics. It derives its name from a Michael Lewis book of the same name.
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I think the OP was actually referring to sabermetrics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabermetrics), which was embraced by baseball as described by the film Moneyball. In this respect, it does fit with the discussion of Shane Long if you measure a strikers contribution only in terms of goals scored. Sabermetrics looks at other statistics and looks at the mechanics of how a player fits within a system. Why buy a 20 goal a season play for £30 million when he could be replaced by three 7 goal a season players for less (that is the theory at least).

 

Quite. It's about identifying key skills needed for success ("getting on base" was a key one for Oakland) and acquiring them. With the different skillsets needed in football compared to baseball, a team ethic is a key driver and the relationships between the different positions are a lot more complex than in baseball.

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it says so when you google it...

 

Different thing really. Buying someone cheap and improving them is one thing. The other is buying someone undervalued - by that meaning their attributes are undervalued - and adding them to your team to improve a certain facet rather than being undervalued and then being able to improve them and sell them at a profit. Moneyball is about the value already being there just not being understood by other people, they are immediately of more value to your team the moment they arrive rather than improving them

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Wish I hadn't asked now...............

I have seized on to the fact that it's a US sports term, probably particularly popular with FM afficionados...and probably also used car salesmen.

 

agree. it is yank SHYTE.

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it says so when you google it...

 

Well, having seen the film and as I'm currently reading the book (and have already read the football re-interpretation of it), I can confirm that's an oversimplification and it's not just about buying low and selling high, but actually about appreciating undervalued skills and delivering success from seeing those skills before others do - the value is already there, it's just obscured by bad analysis (eg that a hard-working wide man with defensive skills "doesn't score enough goals" when actually he's involved in the creation of chances for others to make assists, and preventing goals by pressing defenders and wide midfielders long before the ball gets near our goal).

 

Kinda like goalkeeper wins you more points than any other position, but they're the cheapest position for wages and to buy the transfer market.

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