Top 4 chance now gone? Europa Thoughts?

[lickierambert]

I think if we go out, we're out of Europe completely. I think. (MLG to confirm)

 

So from a "we're all going on a European tour" perspective you might want to finish fifth.

 

No we'd go into the Europa League group stages. The point I was making that if we get 4th, don't be so quick to dream about playing at the Nou Camp etc, as it's still unlikely we'd get to the CL group stages

[Redslo]

I think if we go out, we're out of Europe completely. I think. (MLG to confirm)

 

So from a "we're all going on a European tour" perspective you might want to finish fifth.

 

If we lost in the Champions League playoff we would go directly into the Europa League group phase.

[VectisSaint]

I would prefer us not to get into Europe any season. What really counts is staying in the top league for more than 27 years which would surpass our previous run. This is the only record that really counts. BTW, I am not trolling, this is what I really think.

At least we know we can't finish 17th.

[LVSaint]

I keep running the online predictor and have us making 4th on goal difference. So that's that settled then.

Edited 23 March, 2015 by LVSaint

[Redslo]

At least we know we can't finish 17th.

 

Or 15th or 16th.

[Lets B Avenue]

I think if we go out, we're out of Europe completely. I think. (MLG to confirm)

 

So from a "we're all going on a European tour" perspective you might want to finish fifth.

 

Sorry that's wrong. The 10 losers of the CL Qualifying round go into the Europa League Group Stage.

[Charlie Wayman]

Good grief. I'm so glad the players have more belief in themselves than supporters! 4th remains a possibility right up to the time it's a mathematical impossibility.

 

Keep up, it's already mathematically impossible, Manure have lost 5 all season, now you're asking them to lose 3 out of 8. No chance!

[CB Fry]

If we lost in the Champions League playoff we would go directly into the Europa League group phase.

In that case I have no idea what lickierambert was on about. Finish fourth, it's fine.

[Dalek2003]

Bit late for that.

 

We all look forward to your hilarious routine yet again this summer.

 

Ah, my greatest fan/stalker !

[bender]

Feb' cost us a genuine tilt at it but if someone had said to me in July that we'd finish 5th - 7th and qualify for Europe I'd have snapped their hand off.

 

Why on earth would you do that?

[VectisSaint]

Or 15th or 16th.

Yes but 17th is special. Especially for those with a sink plunger appendage.

[View From The Top]

Why on earth would you do that?

 

Because in July it hardly seemed possible that we'd have the the season we've had even to the most optimistic of us.

[macca155]

Playing the predictor sites is good fun and if you remain objective they all have us finishing 5th or 6th. 4th is probably beyond us but not as mathematically unlikely as you would think.

 

The fixture list stagger has to unwind and Saints are definitely in lane 1. All the top teams have to play each other which means if Saints keep winning then they will make progress pretty much every week.

 

Saints won't win every game obviously but they definitely have the best run in. The infighting between the other contenders will be interesting to watch.

 

the first three places are settled and 4th is almost certainly going to Utd. As an earlier poster observed they won't lose 3 out of the next 8 games, although we live in hope.

 

No way will Swansea catch Saints, they need 4 wins to our 4 losses in the next 8 games. That is very unlikely so 7th is pretty much in the bag.

 

This means that Liverpool, Spurs and Saints are slugging it out for 5th, 6th, and 7th. The games are running out and as soon as one of those teams falls off the pace they are done for... there is no coming back.

 

Spurs have a very similar fixture list to Saints but crucially they have to play Saints away, that game will be the decider I suspect.

 

Liverpool have to play Arsenal and Chelsea and despite some good form may find their run in difficult. Of course into that mix come relegation teams fighting for survival and pulling off shock victories. Plus the time honoured variables that make football so enjoyable to watch and impossible to predict.

 

It has been a great season and hopefully we will see Saints amass more than 60 points which will be an incredible effort considering the departures in the summer. A glance at the record books shows that this is the 12th best season already and there are still 8 very winnable games to play. Five wins would see Saints match their 2nd best ever points tally. Saints would have to win every game to match 77 so in reality that has to remain a target for next year

 

The goal difference is likely to be one of the best as well.

 

Season Pos P W D L F A GD Pt

1983-1984 2 42 22 11 9 66 38 28 77

1980-1981 6 42 20 10 12 76 56 20 70

1984-1985 5 42 19 11 12 56 47 9 68

1981-1982 7 42 19 9 14 72 67 5 66

1979-1980 8 42 18 9 15 65 53 12 63

1970-1971 7 42 17 12 13 56 44 12 63

1968-1969 7 42 16 13 13 57 48 9 61

1982-1983 12 42 15 12 15 54 58 -4 57

2013-2014 8 38 15 11 12 54 46 8 56

1989-1990 7 38 15 10 13 71 63 8 55

1994-1995 10 42 12 18 12 61 63 -2 54

2014-2015 6 30 16 5 9 42 21 21 53

 

To put things in perspective Saints have only ever finished above 6th place twice. I for one will celebrate 7th and hopefully a European adventure. Anything more will be amazing and a solid platform to build on for the following season.

 

What isn't to like about this season whatever happens now.

 

Enjoy it as we haven't seen it often before.

[Saintandy666]

I think that sadly the champions league dream is over, and I suppose it was always going to be that way as the top squads have just that little bit more quality and depth than us to peak at the right time, and also remain more consistent. But I still think we can finish 5th, and how great it would be to defeat the main defector clubs, Tottenham and Liverpool. The big game about whether we finish above Tottenham is obviously our game against them which is pretty much a must win - as their run-in is probably on a par with ours in that it has plenty of winnable games. Liverpool still need to play Chelsea and Arsenal, but beyond that also plenty of winnable games given their form, but there's not that many games less and we only need 1 more point than them over that period so an extra loss against one of those teams would be huge.

 

But then of course, with lots of big teams to play each other - Man Utd and Man City, Man Utd and Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea, Tottenham and Man City - the right combinations could put us in with a chance for CL still, but I think we'd need to win at least 6 of a remaining 8 games to be in with a shot.

 

Edit: And indeed... 72 points W6 D1 L1 - puts us in with a decent chance of CL, but by no means a guarantee. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

(if we win 7, then we are more or less assured it. It's all such tight margins though and I just can't see it happening)

Edited 24 March, 2015 by Saintandy666

[syd_barrett_saint]

 

If I had to guess I would guess that winning all our remaining games gets us into the Champions League but two losses eliminate us.

 

If we win 6 and lose 2 of our last 8 games, I think we can still get 4th place. I can definitely see 4 possible losses for Man Utd, and that would probably see us go ahead of them in the goal difference stakes, unless there are some surprising heavy defeats for us or big victories for Man Utd.

 

There is the possibility that Man Utd could lose 4 out of these 5: home to Man City, away to Chelsea, away to Everton, away to Crystal Palace, and home to Arsenal.

 

Of course, if that happens, we would still need to win 6 of the 8, which is a huge ask.

[Redslo]

If we win 6 and lose 2 of our last 8 games, I think we can still get 4th place. I can definitely see 4 possible losses for Man Utd, and that would probably see us go ahead of them in the goal difference stakes, unless there are some surprising heavy defeats for us or big victories for Man Utd.

 

There is the possibility that Man Utd could lose 4 out of these 5: home to Man City, away to Chelsea, away to Everton, away to Crystal Palace, and home to Arsenal.

 

Of course, if that happens, we would still need to win 6 of the 8, which is a huge ask.

 

You could be right, but keep in mind that if that happens we have to hope Liverpool does not win 6 out of 8 or Tottenham does not win 6 out of 8 plus a draw. Neither seems that likely but they are additional barriers to our qualifying with just six more wins.

[syd_barrett_saint]

You could be right, but keep in mind that if that happens we have to hope Liverpool does not win 6 out of 8 or Tottenham does not win 6 out of 8 plus a draw. Neither seems that likely but they are additional barriers to our qualifying with just six more wins.

 

Good point. As long as one of our 6 wins is against Spurs I think that we'll be OK with them (they will almost certainly lose one more game). And I can see Liverpool losing at Arsenal and Chelsea, and drawing or losing at West Brom or Stoke.

 

But to be honest, us winning 6 out of 8 seems like a bit of a stretch in the first place. Perhaps we could win 5 and draw 3. But even that would be a fantastic achievement.

[Faz]

Interesting innit?

 

We really need to go out to win every game, but changing our formation to be more attacking didn't really work for us on Saturday. It upset the whole rhythm of the team.

 

We should probably stick to the knitting and see where it gets us.

[Goatboy]

Playing the predictor sites is good fun and if you remain objective they all have us finishing 5th or 6th. 4th is probably beyond us but not as mathematically unlikely as you would think.

 

The fixture list stagger has to unwind and Saints are definitely in lane 1. All the top teams have to play each other which means if Saints keep winning then they will make progress pretty much every week.

 

Saints won't win every game obviously but they definitely have the best run in. The infighting between the other contenders will be interesting to watch.

 

the first three places are settled and 4th is almost certainly going to Utd. As an earlier poster observed they won't lose 3 out of the next 8 games, although we live in hope.

 

No way will Swansea catch Saints, they need 4 wins to our 4 losses in the next 8 games. That is very unlikely so 7th is pretty much in the bag.

 

This means that Liverpool, Spurs and Saints are slugging it out for 5th, 6th, and 7th. The games are running out and as soon as one of those teams falls off the pace they are done for... there is no coming back.

 

Spurs have a very similar fixture list to Saints but crucially they have to play Saints away, that game will be the decider I suspect.

 

Liverpool have to play Arsenal and Chelsea and despite some good form may find their run in difficult. Of course into that mix come relegation teams fighting for survival and pulling off shock victories. Plus the time honoured variables that make football so enjoyable to watch and impossible to predict.

 

It has been a great season and hopefully we will see Saints amass more than 60 points which will be an incredible effort considering the departures in the summer. A glance at the record books shows that this is the 12th best season already and there are still 8 very winnable games to play. Five wins would see Saints match their 2nd best ever points tally. Saints would have to win every game to match 77 so in reality that has to remain a target for next year

 

The goal difference is likely to be one of the best as well.

 

Season Pos P W D L F A GD Pt

1983-1984 2 42 22 11 9 66 38 28 77

1980-1981 6 42 20 10 12 76 56 20 70

1984-1985 5 42 19 11 12 56 47 9 68

1981-1982 7 42 19 9 14 72 67 5 66

1979-1980 8 42 18 9 15 65 53 12 63

1970-1971 7 42 17 12 13 56 44 12 63

1968-1969 7 42 16 13 13 57 48 9 61

1982-1983 12 42 15 12 15 54 58 -4 57

2013-2014 8 38 15 11 12 54 46 8 56

1989-1990 7 38 15 10 13 71 63 8 55

1994-1995 10 42 12 18 12 61 63 -2 54

2014-2015 6 30 16 5 9 42 21 21 53

 

To put things in perspective Saints have only ever finished above 6th place twice. I for one will celebrate 7th and hopefully a European adventure. Anything more will be amazing and a solid platform to build on for the following season.

 

What isn't to like about this season whatever happens now.

 

Enjoy it as we haven't seen it often before.

 

Good post:)

[JRM]

Playing the predictor sites is good fun and if you remain objective they all have us finishing 5th or 6th. 4th is probably beyond us but not as mathematically unlikely as you would think.

 

The fixture list stagger has to unwind and Saints are definitely in lane 1. All the top teams have to play each other which means if Saints keep winning then they will make progress pretty much every week.

 

Saints won't win every game obviously but they definitely have the best run in. The infighting between the other contenders will be interesting to watch.

 

the first three places are settled and 4th is almost certainly going to Utd. As an earlier poster observed they won't lose 3 out of the next 8 games, although we live in hope.

 

No way will Swansea catch Saints, they need 4 wins to our 4 losses in the next 8 games. That is very unlikely so 7th is pretty much in the bag.

 

This means that Liverpool, Spurs and Saints are slugging it out for 5th, 6th, and 7th. The games are running out and as soon as one of those teams falls off the pace they are done for... there is no coming back.

 

Spurs have a very similar fixture list to Saints but crucially they have to play Saints away, that game will be the decider I suspect.

 

Liverpool have to play Arsenal and Chelsea and despite some good form may find their run in difficult. Of course into that mix come relegation teams fighting for survival and pulling off shock victories. Plus the time honoured variables that make football so enjoyable to watch and impossible to predict.

 

It has been a great season and hopefully we will see Saints amass more than 60 points which will be an incredible effort considering the departures in the summer. A glance at the record books shows that this is the 12th best season already and there are still 8 very winnable games to play. Five wins would see Saints match their 2nd best ever points tally. Saints would have to win every game to match 77 so in reality that has to remain a target for next year

 

The goal difference is likely to be one of the best as well.

 

Season Pos P W D L F A GD Pt

1983-1984 2 42 22 11 9 66 38 28 77

1980-1981 6 42 20 10 12 76 56 20 70

1984-1985 5 42 19 11 12 56 47 9 68

1981-1982 7 42 19 9 14 72 67 5 66

1979-1980 8 42 18 9 15 65 53 12 63

1970-1971 7 42 17 12 13 56 44 12 63

1968-1969 7 42 16 13 13 57 48 9 61

1982-1983 12 42 15 12 15 54 58 -4 57

2013-2014 8 38 15 11 12 54 46 8 56

1989-1990 7 38 15 10 13 71 63 8 55

1994-1995 10 42 12 18 12 61 63 -2 54

2014-2015 6 30 16 5 9 42 21 21 53

 

To put things in perspective Saints have only ever finished above 6th place twice. I for one will celebrate 7th and hopefully a European adventure. Anything more will be amazing and a solid platform to build on for the following season.

 

What isn't to like about this season whatever happens now.

 

Enjoy it as we haven't seen it often before.

 

I don't think its correct to aim for "record points total of 77" as that was based on a 42 game season, better to work out what our best ever points per game ratio is.

 

This season has been fantastic, the players deserve our praise whatever happens now but I sense some fans at games being restless expecting to win easily now such as Burnley and therefore not really enjoying it as much as ee used to when a win was a rare thing. I think we'll finish 6th. Need Kelv to have a good run of form

[syd_barrett_saint]

I don't think its correct to aim for "record points total of 77" as that was based on a 42 game season, better to work out what our best ever points per game ratio is.

 

Indeed. 77 divided by 42 is 1.83 (to 2 decimal places). Multiply that by the 38 games this season, and you get 69.54 (to 2 decimal places). So if we get 70 points this season (17 more points, which would be 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, which sounds difficult but reasonably do-able) then does that mean we will have had our best top flight season ever in terms of points?

[Redslo]

I don't think its correct to aim for "record points total of 77" as that was based on a 42 game season, better to work out what our best ever points per game ratio is.

 

This season has been fantastic, the players deserve our praise whatever happens now but I sense some fans at games being restless expecting to win easily now such as Burnley and therefore not really enjoying it as much as ee used to when a win was a rare thing. I think we'll finish 6th. Need Kelv to have a good run of form

 

(77/42) times 38=69.6666666666666666667 so 70 points it is.

[JRM]

Indeed. 77 divided by 42 is 1.83 (to 2 decimal places). Multiply that by the 38 games this season, and you get 69.54 (to 2 decimal places). So if we get 70 points this season (17 more points, which would be 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, which sounds difficult but reasonably do-able) then does that mean we will have had our best top flight season ever in terms of points?

 

Yes so assuming we pick up a few more points this will be our best season for 30 years - a great time to be a Saints fan and a reminder that while being ambitious for more is a good thing we should take a moment to appreciate what we have - who knows what the next 30 years will bring.

[Toomer]

I'll be dead before we beat the 27 years so give me a European run any time please.

 

 

Better make it soon.

Could be the same for me Whitey so a European Tour would be nice.

[SaintBobby]

I still think it will be impossible for us to finish above a really big club like Everton, to be honest.

[bender]

Because in July it hardly seemed possible that we'd have the the season we've had even to the most optimistic of us.

 

I know but to snap someones hand off. Seems a bit extreme.

[Daft Kerplunk]

Would love 4th, would happily take 7th if that gets us UEFA football competition, but would just prefer us to finish above Liverpool and Spurs. If 4th appears out of the question, 5th please gents. We must beat Spuds at home, the great football god of green fields demands justice.

[Mosin]

Here's the problem with finishing 4th: we'd have to get through a play off. Here's the list of some of the teams that currently would be in that group:

 

Atletico Madrid

Bayer Leverkusen

Lazio

Sporting Lisbon

Basel

Red Bull Salzburg

Marseille

Besiktas

 

Does anyone think we'd beat those over two legs?

 

Yes apart from Atletico, the rest are for the taking to be honest. Only reason why English teams been so poor in Champions league is down to poor defending, some thing which Saints are the best at in the league.

[Saint_clark]

Keep up, it's already mathematically impossible, Manure have lost 5 all season, now you're asking them to lose 3 out of 8. No chance!

 

They could lose 2 and draw 3 and drop the same amount of points.

[Alanh]

I don't think we ever had a realistic chance of top 4. We don't have the quality of player or size of squad to relentlessly grind out wins throughout the season or cope with injuries without a dip in form. As I have said before 7th would feel a bit disappointing to me given that we made 8th last year and Everton have effectively given up their spot in the top 7 with their relatively poor season. 6th would be a really good season as we would finish above Liverpool or Spurs. 5th would be amazing and a tremendous achievement for everyone at the club. I think we'll win four more games, lose two and draw two. Not sure which position 65 points will get us to - it probably depends on what the result against Spurs is, but it will be a great season nonetheless.

[SaintBobby]

They could lose 2 and draw 3 and drop the same amount of points.

 

Err, isn't three losses a drop of 9 points....2 losses and 3 draws is a drop of 12 points, no?

[Saint_clark]

Err, isn't three losses a drop of 9 points....2 losses and 3 draws is a drop of 12 points, no?

 

Even better!

[macca155]

Good point I forgot we used to play more games.

70 points is at least possible. Wouldn't that be amazing.

[Redslo]

I know but to snap someones hand off. Seems a bit extreme.

 

He might have been speaking metaphorically.

[View From The Top]

He might have been speaking metaphorically.

 

D'ya think?

[Redslo]

D'ya think?

 

Sometimes.

[SydneyFC]

I will be happy with Europa, think of the people that predicted us at the start of season.

 

Will be supporting the Russian teams over Southampton

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Redslo]

I will be happy with Europa, think of the people that predicted us at the start of season.

 

Will be supporting the Russian teams over Southampton

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

It Putin is forcing you to say this just blink out a coded message and we will send help.

[Batman]

I bet no liverpool players will be involved after the first england game

[red&white56]

Would love a European tour.............. it would cap the end to a great season.

[a1ex2001]

Yes so assuming we pick up a few more points this will be our best season for 30 years - a great time to be a Saints fan and a reminder that while being ambitious for more is a good thing we should take a moment to appreciate what we have - who knows what the next 30 years will bring.

 

This a thousand times, saints fan's haven't had it this good in a long time and nobody knows what the future holds so everyone needs to enjoy it while it's here. Those moaning about a season in the Europa league need to remind themselves that my generation have only one memory of the saints in Europe and I for one didn't think we would have a hope of qualifying via league placing anytime soon when we were relegated!

Edited 25 March, 2015 by a1ex2001

[Kingsbridge Saint]

If we win our last 8 where do you reckon we would finish?

[Redslo]

If we win our last 8 where do you reckon we would finish?

 

Third.

[Kingsbridge Saint]

I reckon Redslo is right there. So top 4 chance not gone. I remember 1984 when we sneaked up on everyone right at the end. Whilst there's a chance.....

[Lallana's Left Peg]

Whilst you cannot mathematically dismiss our Top 4 chances, we have to catch 3 teams and bridge an 8pt gap over the next 7 games. It's highly unlikely and to be honest Swansea are closer to us in 7th than we are to 4th. That said, and presuming we qualify for the Europa League, what would people's preferred approach to it be? Under the view that there isn't much money in the Europa League so we can't go bloating the squad with loads of nice new shiny players the club has a decision to make.

 

1. Play the kids / fringe players in the Europa - focus on the league and ensure we finish as high up as possible to support the stated long-term progression

2. Play a mix of kids / fringe players in Europa with first team players and accept that a somewhat half-baked approach to both the Premier League and Europa may not be great but it's the best way to manage the squad in the circumstance

3. Give the Europa a good go and accept our League position will suffer considerably.

 

You can claim the above options are not exhaustive and it would be possible to compete on all fronts - I personally doubt that in the circumstance and what history tells us so for the purposes of this exercise, what would you prefer the club to do?

[Dalek2003]

Whilst you cannot mathematically dismiss our Top 4 chances, we have to catch 3 teams and bridge an 8pt gap over the next 7 games. It's highly unlikely and to be honest Swansea are closer to us in 7th than we are to 4th. That said, and presuming we qualify for the Europa League, what would people's preferred approach to it be? Under the view that there isn't much money in the Europa League so we can't go bloating the squad with loads of nice new shiny players the club has a decision to make.

 

1. Play the kids / fringe players in the Europa - focus on the league and ensure we finish as high up as possible to support the stated long-term progression

2. Play a mix of kids / fringe players in Europa with first team players and accept that a somewhat half-baked approach to both the Premier League and Europa may not be great but it's the best way to manage the squad in the circumstance

3. Give the Europa a good go and accept our League position will suffer considerably.

 

You can claim the above options are not exhaustive and it would be possible to compete on all fronts - I personally doubt that in the circumstance and what history tells us so for the purposes of this exercise, what would you prefer the club to do?

 

Option 1.

 

How about Option 4. Allow Swansea to finish 7th and we finish 8th. Then, we can concentrate on the league without any distractions.

[CB Fry]

Option 1.

 

How about Option 4. Allow Swansea to finish 7th and we finish 8th. Then, we can concentrate on the league without any distractions.

Oh, our aching sides.

[Dalek2003]

Oh, our aching sides.

 

Afternoon. See your tracking device is still working.

[Chickendippers]

Don't forget that next year the guys that joined us this year will have had a pre-season, so should hit the ground running. Hopefully we don't lose too many this year. Van ****, Classie, Martins indi in for Clyne, Schneiderlin, Alderweireld plus a fit J-Rod will see us no worse off. But if we lose more (JWP to Citeh for example) it may be asking too much to do it two years in a row.

[The9]

Whilst you cannot mathematically dismiss our Top 4 chances' date=' we have to catch 3 teams and bridge an 8pt gap over the next 7 games. It's highly unlikely and [b']to be honest Swansea are closer to us in 7th than we are to 4th[/b].

 

And before the last match we were 2 points nearer 2nd than we were 8th. Swings and roundabouts.