Top 4 chance now gone? Europa Thoughts?

[Saint Charlie]

I know we still are annoyed when not mentioned for top four, but...

 

Seven points behind Arsenal and six behind an improving Man Utd with a (slightly) worse GD than both.

 

1. Did the United win put us pretty much out of the race?

 

2. Is there even a race or will it just be the top 4 as they are now?

 

3. Were we ever realistic contenders or does our relative squad size make it nigh on impossible?

 

4. Would you be in any way disappointed with Europa League because you thought we had a shot at the CL?

 

5. Assuming we get there, would Europa be of equal, lesser or greater importance relative to the PL and other Cups next season?

 

IMO...

 

1. Yes

 

2. Depends on Utd results next 3 games

 

3.Would need a perfect season with no injuries or loss of form and that never happens to anyone.

 

4. No 5th still well up for grabs, what a result that would be. No pressure really on us as 7th would be a great season and almost impossible we will be below that.

 

Coming ahead of either Liverpool, Spurs or both would be a sweet moment and has implications for which Europa League round you join.

 

5. Got to treat Europe seriously as you do so much to get there. Go hard at early games and only rest players when you can afford to IMO. We play league footy every year, Europe is a rarity.

[Leicestersaint]

I think we blew it during the awful month of February - lost to Swansea, beat QPR, drew with West Ham, lost to Liverpool, lost to West Brom - 4 points out of 15 and just one goal! We should still be able to get into Europa but it's very much second best. Shame - and shows the importance of goal scorers!

[beatlesaint]

My only concern is the way the Europa League seems to **** teams up, Everton, Swansea, Newcastle all with similar squads to us, all had disappointing seasons whilst in the competition.

Having said that Koeman seems very keen to play in it and he knows whats happening more than me so if its good enough for Ron its good enough for me !

 

And no i don't think it was a realistic aim with the size of squad we have but we have put the fear of God up some fancy dan bigger clubs and thats been bloody funny to see !

 

To qualify through League position for Southampton is a fabulous achievement in anyones language :-)

[Lallana's Left Peg]

1. Did the United win put us pretty much out of the race?

No.

 

2. Is there even a race or will it just be the top 4 as they are now?

There is still a race but it is starting to look more clear cut that the incumbents will remain where they are.

 

3. Were we ever realistic contenders or does our relative squad size make it nigh on impossible?

That little surge after Christmas was not expected but over the course of a 38 game season the little moments of quality and squad size are telling. We've given it a great shot (and will continue to do so).

 

4. Would you be in any way disappointed with Europa League because you thought we had a shot at the CL?

Not at all.

 

5. Assuming we get there, would Europa be of equal, lesser or greater importance relative to the PL and other Cups next season?

A club of our size will see its League Form take a significant hammering from competing in the Europa League - you can prioritise really, but just try and manage the squad the best you can in the circumstance. As long as we're safe in the league I'd like to see a strong effort in the cups.

[Patrick Bateman]

I think we blew it during the awful month of February - lost to Swansea, beat QPR, drew with West Ham, lost to Liverpool, lost to West Brom - 4 points out of 15 and just one goal! We should still be able to get into Europa but it's very much second best. Shame - and shows the importance of goal scorers!

 

But you could say that from any point of the season. We should have beaten West Brom at home, not limped along to worst, most boring 0-0 draw in history. That one result alone would put us on 55 points, in 5th, 1 point behind Man Utd.

 

You just have to keep grinding out results, simple as that.

[Bearsy]

If we win all our games would that prob be enough? Someone check Redslo blog he prob has this info

 

We should have like an annual St Totteringham's Day, except it can be mathematically cannot make Top 4 day. We can call it St. Turkish Day pls.

[Whitey Grandad]

Still quite a few games to go but 4th is looking unlikely. There are several top 4 fixtues where they have to play each other so points will be dropped but we need to win almost all our games to have any chance. Beating Spurs is vital.

[Wurzel]

1. Did the United win put us pretty much out of the race?

If we let ourselves think we're out of it then that'll become self-fulfilling. We're relying on them hitting a bad patch but we're not out of it.

 

2. Is there even a race or will it just be the top 4 as they are now?

Of course there is still a race, top 4 have to be favourites, but has the fat lady sung yet?

3. Were we ever realistic contenders or does our relative squad size make it nigh on impossible?

Hard but not impossible. We've had 2 really good spells this season where we've picked up points we've not expected to. Conversely we've had two poor spells where we've dropped points we'd have expected to gain. So overall the table doesn't lie although we've possibly not got to where we are in the way we expected. But just 2 wins off a CL place with 8 games to go? It wouldn't take a huge amount of strengthening to get there. Also our performances this year might just encourage a few other clubs that they aren't here just to make up the numbers, just possibly the "big 4" won't have things quite their own way in future

4. Would you be in any way disappointed with Europa League because you thought we had a shot at the CL?

No.

 

5. Assuming we get there, would Europa be of equal, lesser or greater importance relative to the PL and other Cups next season?

PL should be priority, but a good Europa run will give us a greater European (if not worldwide) awareness than a good FA or LC run would, making us even more attractive to new foreign signings in the future.

[Sour Mash]

I know we still are annoyed when not mentioned for top four, but...

 

Seven points behind Arsenal and six behind an improving Man Utd with a (slightly) worse GD than both.

 

1. Did the United win put us pretty much out of the race?

 

2. Is there even a race or will it just be the top 4 as they are now?

 

3. Were we ever realistic contenders or does our relative squad size make it nigh on impossible?

 

4. Would you be in any way disappointed with Europa League because you thought we had a shot at the CL?

 

5. Assuming we get there, would Europa be of equal, lesser or greater importance relative to the PL and other Cups next season?

 

IMO...

 

1. Yes

 

2. Depends on Utd results next 3 games

 

3.Would need a perfect season with no injuries or loss of form and that never happens to anyone.

 

4. No 5th still well up for grabs, what a result that would be. No pressure really on us as 7th would be a great season and almost impossible we will be below that.

 

Coming ahead of either Liverpool, Spurs or both would be a sweet moment and has implications for which Europa League round you join.

 

5. Got to treat Europe seriously as you do so much to get there. Go hard at early games and only rest players when you can afford to IMO. We play league footy every year, Europe is a rarity.

 

1. I thought we were already out of the race.

 

2. There was a race, pretty much over now, can't see past the current top 4.

 

3. Yes, we were realistic, a big ask, but not impossible.

 

4. No, no chance.

 

5. Equal. Worth having a decent go of it, not impossible to get through to the finals, unlikely, but imagine that.

[Saint Rees]

February pretty much blew it for us, if we had scored against 10 men west ham and Pelle had scored that tap in at West Brom we'd still be in with a great shout, but you could say the same for so many 'what ifs' that we have had this season - as Koeman would say "that's football"

[JRM]

1. I thought we were already out of the race.

 

2. There was a race, pretty much over now, can't see past the current top 4.

 

3. Yes, we were realistic, a big ask, but not impossible.

 

4. No, no chance.

 

5. Equal. Worth having a decent go of it, not impossible to get through to the finals, unlikely, but imagine that.

 

 

in answer to number 5 - remember Fulham and Middlesbrough getting to the final? Fulham in 2009 or 2010 whenever it was - their fans enjoyed that , some incredible games in Europa run

[Saint Charlie]

3. Were we ever realistic contenders or does our relative squad size make it nigh on impossible?

 

It wouldn't take a huge amount of strengthening to get there. Also our performances this year might just encourage a few other clubs that they aren't here just to make up the numbers, just possibly the "big 4" won't have things quite their own way in future

 

Problem is we cannot keep building from where we are because we know pretty much each summer that a bigger club will take at least one or two of our best players.

 

To replace Clyne and Morgan AND then on top of that improve positions we need to is very tough to do year on year.

[Sour Mash]

in answer to number 5 - remember Fulham and Middlesbrough getting to the final? Fulham in 2009 or 2010 whenever it was - their fans enjoyed that , some incredible games in Europa run

Beating the likes of Juventus and Roma wasn't it. Imagine that, would be class.

[Lallana's Left Peg]

Problem is we cannot keep building from where we are because we know pretty much each summer that a bigger club will take at least one or two of our best players.

 

To replace Clyne and Morgan AND then on top of that improve positions we need to is very tough to do year on year.

 

As long as our replacements cost less than we sell for and perform to an equal level we can build.

 

Whether or not a recruitment strategy can be that successful is the question. But it is certainly possible in theory.

[View From The Top]

Problem is we cannot keep building from where we are because we know pretty much each summer that a bigger club will take at least one or two of our best players.

 

To replace Clyne and Morgan AND then on top of that improve positions we need to is very tough to do year on year.

 

That's never going to change so it's a case of adapting and evolving with that in mind that matters in the years ahead.

[View From The Top]

Feb' cost us a genuine tilt at it but if someone had said to me in July that we'd finish 5th - 7th and qualify for Europe I'd have snapped their hand off.

[Mowgli]

Good grief. I'm so glad the players have more belief in themselves than supporters! 4th remains a possibility right up to the time it's a mathematical impossibility.

[simo]

in answer to number 5 - remember Fulham and Middlesbrough getting to the final? Fulham in 2009 or 2010 whenever it was - their fans enjoyed that , some incredible games in Europa run

 

I think our style is ideal for away goals imo

[Unbelievable Jeff]

United still have some difficult games to play, although it is does look like the chance is pretty much gone.

 

Looking forward to Europa next season though.

[View From The Top]

Good grief. I'm so glad the players have more belief in themselves than supporters! 4th remains a possibility right up to the time it's a mathematical impossibility.

 

You keep telling yourself that treacle.

[iansums]

Although 7th would be a massive achievement it would leave me feeling a tad depressed. I would just like to see us finish higher than one of the big six.

[Saint Charlie]

That's never going to change so it's a case of adapting and evolving with that in mind that matters in the years ahead.

 

Absolutely will never change, but it is probably the reason that its hardest to qualify for the CL as a non big club.

 

As a good but small team you are high profile enough for teams to notice and buy your players and also to attract good replacements but each summer your recruitment process is a lot harder than Chelsea, City, United, Arsenal, Liverpool and even Spurs.

 

The poster was right saying we arent far away but I bet by start of July our squad will be worse than it is now whereas the likes of a Liverpool will probably have kept Sterling and added quality.

 

Especially as we often lose our best players to other PL teams. Clyne and Morgan will improve teams that we consider rivals whilst weakening us.

 

That is just the reality and why the status quo is always preserved.

[Saint Charlie]

As long as our replacements cost less than we sell for and perform to an equal level we can build.

 

Whether or not a recruitment strategy can be that successful is the question. But it is certainly possible in theory.

 

Worked this year but won't every year. Don't envy whoever replaces Morgan and Clyne. If they are anywhere near their performances this season then we will have done well.

[Tom & Gerry]

I am actually slightly more optimistic of Champions League football than I was.

From thinking it was imposssible I now think it's just about possible given Man U's remaining fixtures and ours.

I am also not totally convinced yet that Man U are the real deal. Yes they've had 2 great results but 2 weeks ago they were rubbish and the Manager was facing the sack.

We would have to show our very best form of course.

[ant]

Looking at Arsenal's and United's remaining fixtures, I still wouldn't rule it out. Would take an absolutely mega run of form for us but we've got some tasty matches coming up. Chain wins together through those and who knows?

 

Granted the 'what if' moments in February cost us, but there were plenty of matches earlier in the season where we stole something from nothing. Either way I'd say it's a fair assessment that we've over-achieved - 6th after 30 games is just ridiculous and any advance on that would be wonderland. I'm going to stick my neck out and say we'll finish 5th.

[eddie]

I think there is absolutely no chance of top 4. Absolutely none. Very willing to be proved wrong always but Arsenal look very very strong and United have played back to back their best games of the season.

 

5th - and 6th really depend on two things - interested to see if others agree:

 

A. whether spurs and liverpool can keep momentum (obviously this is the case but still), and we don't revert back to goalless, threatless February/March form. they both looked top 4 contenders a month ago and were both schooled by man u...but both have tougher run-in's than us (Liverpool are away to stoke, arsenal, chelsea and west brom which will all be tricky fixtures....Spurs have stoke and newcastle away and man city at home)

 

B. 25th April....in all seriousness at home to spurs I reckon could very well be the difference between 6th and 7th. Total must win if we are talking about champions league

[BARCELONASAINT]

I have loved this season and the great football that has been played.

Did i ever think we would qualify for CL....No, i'm realistic and we do not have the squad depth for that.

Yes we can qualify for Europa and yes i will be chuffed about that and dont understand anyone that would not be.

We would need to increase our squad depth by at least 3 players i think for Europa and domestic football.

[mrfahaji]

I think someone posted that finishing 7th in the Europa League would mean qualifying rounds whereas 5th or 6th would go straight to the groups. Finishing 7th and qualifying for Europe would be a fantastic achievement and add even more excitement to next season, but the prospect of qualifying rounds and being pipped by Liverpool and Spurs at the end would taint 7th a little.

 

Having said that, it would be our best Premier League finish and it would mean six consecutive years of improved league position - surely not many teams can point to that sort of run?

 

In summary: Top 4 = dreamland, 5th = amazing, preferably above Liverpool & Spurs, 6th = smug, preferably above Spurs but would also take Liverpool, 7th = objectively happy but tinged with disappointment of what could have been. 8th or below = hugely disappointing but would still try to look at the positives from a great season, let's hope it doesn't come to this!

[Nolan]

Manchester United still have the top 3 to play. Liverpool have 2 away games left against top three sides. Everything is still to play for.

[SaintTex]

It's not completely crazy to think that we could win our next 3 matches (Everton, Hull, Stoke) and ManU could lose 2 (Arsenal, City) out of their next 3. That would put both teams at 62 points 3 matches from now.

 

If we are shooting for 4th place:

 

I think 72 points will get you 4th place this season. So, sitting at 53 points, Saints need 19 points out of 24 possible points remaining. Where will those points come from?

 

Everton (a) - W

Hull (h) - W

Stroke (a) - W

Tottenham (h) - D

Sunderland (a) - W

Leicester (a) - W

Aston Villa (h) - W

Man City (a) - L

 

No room for error, but those predictions are not completely outrageous. Admittedly, Stoke and Everton away are tricky. I think a draw with Tottenham at home is reasonable. A loss away at City is certainly expected.

 

going for 5th, 6th place:

 

Saints have to do just slightly better than Tottenham and/or Liverpool over the next 8 games. Saint will more than likely have the advantage of goal differential in case we end up even with either after 38 games.

 

Liverpool still has to play Chelsea (a) and Arsenal (a) and Stoke (a) and only has 3 home games left. Still has FA Cup to deal with.

Tottenham plays the Saints (a) and Man City (h). Also has only 3 home games left.

 

Tottenham's schedule is nearly the same in difficulty as Southampton's. Liverpool's is more difficult.

 

coming in 7th place:

 

Currently 10 points separate 7th and 8th place with 8 matches left. I think 7th place is pretty well sown up with just one more win.

[tajjuk]

Man Utd still have to play Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City, as well as away to Palace, Hull and Everton, quite easily they could loose 3 and a draw or two out of those.

 

Arsenal have to play Chelsea,Utd and Liverpool.

 

Whereas we could win 6/8 considering who we are playing so you never know, outside chance yes but still there.

[alpine_saint]

Happy with 5th - above Liverpool and Tottenham.

[Goatboy]

It's not completely crazy to think that we could win our next 3 matches (Everton, Hull, Stoke) and ManU could lose 2 (Arsenal, City) out of their next 3. That would put both teams at 62 points 3 matches from now.

 

If we are shooting for 4th place:

 

I think 72 points will get you 4th place this season. So, sitting at 53 points, Saints need 19 points out of 24 possible points remaining. Where will those points come from?

 

Everton (a) - W

Hull (h) - W

Stroke (a) - W

Tottenham (h) - D

Sunderland (a) - W

Leicester (a) - W

Aston Villa (h) - W

Man City (a) - L

 

No room for error, but those predictions are not completely outrageous. Admittedly, Stoke and Everton away are tricky. I think a draw with Tottenham at home is reasonable. A loss away at City is certainly expected.

 

going for 5th, 6th place:

 

Saints have to do just slightly better than Tottenham and/or Liverpool over the next 8 games. Saint will more than likely have the advantage of goal differential in case we end up even with either after 38 games.

 

Liverpool still has to play Chelsea (a) and Arsenal (a) and Stoke (a) and only has 3 home games left. Still has FA Cup to deal with.

Tottenham plays the Saints (a) and Man City (h). Also has only 3 home games left.

 

Tottenham's schedule is nearly the same in difficulty as Southampton's. Liverpool's is more difficult.

 

coming in 7th place:

 

Currently 10 points separate 7th and 8th place with 8 matches left. I think 7th place is pretty well sown up with just one more win.

 

Looking forward to Stroke away;)

[supersonic]

No. We'll finish 7th

[Twiggy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/31993167

[Dalek2003]

I would prefer us to finish outside the European places so that we can concentrate on the PL from the word go. We would also be wise to take an early exit from the League Cup. The FA Cup would depend on how high up we are in the PL. Anything below 10th in the first round, I suggest we play the second team.

[Matthew Le God]

I would prefer us to finish outside the European places so that we can concentrate on the PL from the word go.

 

Would prefer us not to get into Europe this season in order to give us a better chance of getting into Europe next season?

[Dark Munster]

Come on MLG, don't feed the troll.

 

Anyway, back to reality. Who would take a guaranteed 5th now, above Spurs and Liverpool, versus gambling on an outside chance of 4th (or higher) with the risk of finishing lower than 5th?

[Whitey Grandad]

Would prefer us not to get into Europe this season in order to give us a better chance of getting into Europe next season?

 

Win the Europa League and you get a place in the CL the next season.

 

(I think this is true)

[Matthew Le God]

Win the Europa League and you get a place in the CL the next season.

 

(I think this is true)

 

It is true.

[fanimal]

I would take 5th place now purely to be above Spurs and Liverpool - April 25th will be key. I think we are in a race for that spot, the gap is too much to expect to overtake and we still have 8 tough games to play, none will be easy at all.

[Stud mark of doom]

We can still get fourth - COYR

[Dalek2003]

Would prefer us not to get into Europe this season in order to give us a better chance of getting into Europe next season?

 

I would prefer us not to get into Europe any season. What really counts is staying in the top league for more than 27 years which would surpass our previous run. This is the only record that really counts. BTW, I am not trolling, this is what I really think.

[aintforever]

With 5 away games and only 3 at home left I think a 4th place finish is highly unlikely. As long as we get a Europa spot I will be happy.

[CB Fry]

I am not trolling, this is what I really think.

 

Bit late for that.

 

We all look forward to your hilarious routine yet again this summer.

[lickierambert]

Here's the problem with finishing 4th: we'd have to get through a play off. Here's the list of some of the teams that currently would be in that group:

 

Atletico Madrid

Bayer Leverkusen

Lazio

Sporting Lisbon

Basel

Red Bull Salzburg

Marseille

Besiktas

 

Does anyone think we'd beat those over two legs?

[Sour Mash]

Here's the problem with finishing 4th: we'd have to get through a play off. Here's the list of some of the teams that currently would be in that group:

 

Atletico Madrid

Bayer Leverkusen

Lazio

Sporting Lisbon

Basel

Red Bull Salzburg

Marseille

Besiktas

 

Does anyone think we'd beat those over two legs?

That's not really a problem is it?

[CB Fry]

That's not really a problem is it?

I think if we go out, we're out of Europe completely. I think. (MLG to confirm)

 

So from a "we're all going on a European tour" perspective you might want to finish fifth.

[Whitey Grandad]

I would prefer us not to get into Europe any season. What really counts is staying in the top league for more than 27 years which would surpass our previous run. This is the only record that really counts. BTW, I am not trolling, this is what I really think.

 

I'll be dead before we beat the 27 years so give me a European run any time please.

 

 

Better make it soon.

[Redslo]

If we win all our games would that prob be enough? Someone check Redslo blog he prob has this info

 

We should have like an annual St Totteringham's Day, except it can be mathematically cannot make Top 4 day. We can call it St. Turkish Day pls.

 

If we win all our remaining games we finish ahead of Tottenham. We finish ahead of Liverpool unless they also win all their remaining games.

 

We would need Manchester United to drop seven points to pass them. Arsenal to drop eight points and Manchester City to drop nine points. All three results are possible although I doubt that all three will happen. We would need Chelsea to drop 18 points in their remaining nine games. That seems unlikely to say the least.

 

If I had to guess I would guess that winning all our remaining games gets us into the Champions League but two losses eliminate us.

 

In the other direction, if Swansea wins all its remaining games, we need to win five and draw one to finish ahead of them.

 

By the way, we mathematically avoided relegation on Saturday. In fact, we have already clinched 14th place.

 

I will let you know when we mathematically can't make the top four, if that day ever comes.