Saint86 Posted 25 February, 2015 Share Posted 25 February, 2015 Late February and, while the Premier League title race has become into a straight sprint between Chelsea and Manchester City, the bottleneck at that pair’s back is tighter than ever. Not since 2009‑10 has the race been so close between so many, with four points covering five clubs and with two Champions League qualification places up for grabs. Liverpool are mounting the charge from deep as Southampton heave to maintain their early-season form. Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United offer flashes of brilliance and bouts of inconsistency, while Arsenal have glided almost unnoticed through the pack and into the top three. So, as things stand, which two are likeliest to have a tilt at a place in Europe’s elite competition? 1) Current form The team displaying the most consistency are Liverpool, a side unbeaten in their past 10 league games stretching to mid-December when they were traumatised by their brush with the Champions League group stages and appeared such a defensive shambles. They are transformed, comfortable in Brendan Rodgers’ adopted system after five successive clean sheets away from home for the first time in 30 years, Steven Gerrard waiting to return from a hamstring strain, Daniel Sturridge back to fitness and even Mario Balotelli stirring. Memories of last year’s run-in will serve as inspiration. Advertisement Of the others, Arsenal have won five of their past six league games – the only blip a hurtful derby defeat to Spurs – to suggest they are summoning momentum in a campaign of fits and starts but 15 wins in 19 matches in all competitions is impressive form. Manchester United will cling to their own encouraging statistics, with only two defeats in 16 league games, but those numbers still feel rather deceptive. There have been only three victories in eight matches, with unconvincing if unbeaten performances against Burnley, West Ham and Stoke in that sequence, and Saturday’s defeat to Swansea did not seem that surprising. Tottenham Hotspur have lost only once in five league games but they are still saddled by a certain inconsistency: a team capable of thrashing Chelsea but succumbing at Crystal Palace; of beating Arsenal but sloppily throwing away points at home to West Ham. Southampton are enduring an uncharacteristic, sluggish period with only one win and one goal in four league games, and three successive scoreless games at St Mary’s. Every blip is seen as evidence the campaign is catching up with Ronald Koeman’s team which, while perhaps unfair, only a flurry of wins will dispel. How they rate 3 Liverpool 4 Arsenal 5 Manchester United 6 Tottenham 7 Southampton 2) Squad depth Arsenal probably have the greatest array of options, a squad who consistently compete in the knockout phases of the Champions League with an array of attacking-midfield and forward options at their disposal. Injuries across the backline would leave them more stretched, but they have learned to cope when depleted already this season and while they appear short of being title challengers, they are probably the best of the rest on paper. Advertisement Both Liverpool and Manchester United have been built with participation in the elite competition in mind – even if the latter are experiencing a rare season on the outside looking in. There is arguably more balance to Brendan Rodgers’ options than Van Gaal’s at Old Trafford. United have the look of a work in progress, a group supplemented lavishly last summer but in need of defensive reinforcements (despite results hinting at solidity) and still to see the best of the attacking recruits who cost so much. It suggest they may not capitalise on the lack of European football. Liverpool, who had done just that last season, appeared frail at the back earlier this term and their forward signings took considerable time to adjust, but they have struck on a system that ekes the best out of their personnel. Southampton added midfield and forward bodies over the winter but still rely heavily on Morgan Schneiderlin’s presence in the centre. Over-reliance on one influential figure is risky, and they may lack options up front, where Graziano Pellè has scored once in 12 and Jay Rodriguez is still missed. He has been coveted by Tottenham for a while and Mauricio Pochettino’s squad can seem stretched. Runs in the Europa League and Capital One Cup have tested their strength – their involvement in both might have been curtailed by Sunday evening – with the reliance clear on Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen. While interest is retained in different competitions they may rely rather too uncomfortably on players from the ancien régime whose futures at White Hart Lane appear doubtful. How they rate 3 Arsenal 4 Liverpool 5 Manchester United 6 Tottenham 7 Southampton 3) Remaining fixtures Arsenal’s run-in might appear the least daunting, with home games against Chelsea and Liverpool and the trickiest trip to one of the other contenders, at Old Trafford on the penultimate weekend. Certainly, their home fixtures appear very winnable, while Southampton will also be encouraged by what lies ahead. They must visit the top two, with City on the final afternoon, but there are seven fixtures against clubs involved in the scrap at the bottom. To date, Koeman’s team have imposed their class on such opponents. Tottenham will hope to inflict damage at Old Trafford and at St Mary’s against direct rivals, and have only one derby with which to contend in their final 12 games. Manchester United, in contrast, face Spurs, Liverpool, City and Chelsea in a five-game sequence which will potentially determine the fate of their campaign. Then there is Liverpool. At first glance, their run-in appears awkward at best, with the top two as well as United and Arsenal lying in wait. But recent history, and new-found momentum, may work in their favour. In the two seasons Rodgers has overseen the side, Liverpool have played 58 games before 31 December, winning 26 but losing 18. Their record from 1 January to the end reads 44 matches, 29 wins and only four defeats. Three of those were against United, West Bromwich Albion and Southampton in his first season. They are a team who tend to find their rhythm late. As the manager stated on Sunday, the run-in does not hold too many fears. How they rate 3 Arsenal 4 Liverpool 5 Southampton 6 Tottenham 7 Manchester United 4) Experience Where Arsenal and their manager, Arsène Wenger, have grown accustomed to timing their run to a top-four finish, Tottenham have become rather familiar with missing out late-on. They have slipped from the perch they had enjoyed 12 games from the end of each of the past three seasons so under the new management of Pochettino, any higher finish than their current seventh would actually represent progress. While Southampton are in uncharted territory, albeit under the stewardship of a manager who has upset the established order previously in his coaching career, Liverpool will lean heavily on memories of last season when there were 11 successive league wins before the infamous and costly slips in the spring. Yet, if any of the sides in the race should be able to count on experience to see them home it is the United team of Wayne Rooney, Robin van Persie, Michael Carrick and, above all, Louis van Gaal. The Dutchman’s reputation precedes him and it remains rather baffling that his time at Old Trafford has appeared to lack pattern and long-term strategy. Yet salvage Champions League football from the run-in and this campaign can be put down to transition before a return to the elite. The weight of his experience must tell. How they rate 3 Arsenal 4 Manchester United 5 Liverpool 6 Tottenham 7 Southampton Final verdict Logic suggests Arsenal should secure a 19th consecutive top-four finish, with Liverpool the likeliest to oust Manchester United from the Champions League places. However, the sheer number of meetings to come between those currently ranked between third and seventh should maintain the drama to the wire How they are likeliest to finish 3 Arsenal 4 Liverpool 5 Manchester United 6 Tottenham 7 Southampton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 25 February, 2015 Author Share Posted 25 February, 2015 Should probably add this is from the guardian and I don't agree with him! Chelsea City Arsenal Southampton Liverpool United Tottenham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petts Posted 25 February, 2015 Share Posted 25 February, 2015 I think we'll put our poor form behind us now and go on a run, especially against the teams at the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EBS1980 Posted 25 February, 2015 Share Posted 25 February, 2015 Can vote here too: http://www.the93rdminute.co.uk/polls.html select your 2 options from the list of 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 25 February, 2015 Share Posted 25 February, 2015 Seems like a fair assessment to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cellone Posted 25 February, 2015 Share Posted 25 February, 2015 Can vote here too: http://www.the93rdminute.co.uk/polls.html select your 2 options from the list of 5 I take it a lot of Saint's fans have voted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Charlie Posted 25 February, 2015 Share Posted 25 February, 2015 Seems like a fair assessment to me. Agree. Hope we can beat one of those teams and get top 6. Also hope no Saints fans are overly disappointed when we don't make top 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Munster Posted 25 February, 2015 Share Posted 25 February, 2015 Can't really argue with any of that. Only thing missing is the abysmal ref factor: 3 Manchester United 4 Liverpool 5 Arsenal 6 Tottenham 20 Southampton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Munster Posted 25 February, 2015 Share Posted 25 February, 2015 Agree. Hope we can beat one of those teams and get top 6. Also hope no Saints fans are overly disappointed when we don't make top 4. Depends. Maybe so, if Arsenal and ManU finish in the top 4, but if Liverpool or Spurs (or both ) do ... that would be unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wes Tender Posted 25 February, 2015 Share Posted 25 February, 2015 It's a reasonable assessment. The only bit I disagree with is the use of "Logic suggests". There is little logic involved in such forecasts, otherwise the bookies wouldn't be as wealthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieDog Posted 26 February, 2015 Share Posted 26 February, 2015 I always figured we would have a 2nd dip in form this season. A bit gutted that it has included the Liverpool game as that (and the Spurs game) was one I REALLY wanted to win. I guess it depends on how long this dip lasts. I wonder why things change so suddenly? Anyway.... Fingers crossed we find thewinning formula again this weekend and that we can kick on. All still to play for. What an awesome time to be a Saints fan and who could have thought we would be in this position 5 years ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 26 February, 2015 Share Posted 26 February, 2015 The longer the other clubs stay in Europe/FA Cup, the better for us. Unfortunately Arsenal appear to have activated their escape clause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 26 February, 2015 Share Posted 26 February, 2015 The longer the other clubs stay in Europe/FA Cup, the better for us. Unfortunately Arsenal appear to have activated their escape clause. This time next year if we were lucky enough to get through to the CL last 16 I would think we would have enough divs on this forum begging us to chuck the kids in so we can concentrate on the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintTex Posted 27 February, 2015 Share Posted 27 February, 2015 looks like we have the easiest path compared to our competition. Obviously, 6 points in the next 2 matches is required to stay in the race. The weekend we play Chelsea our competition either plays each other or plays Top 10 teams. (so we even if we lose to Chelsea, there is a chance our competition won't make huge gains. Swansea vs Liverpool United vs Tottenham Arsenal vs West Ham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 27 February, 2015 Share Posted 27 February, 2015 The weekend we play Chelsea our competition either plays each other or plays Top 10 teams. (so we even if we lose to Chelsea, there is a chance our competition won't make huge gains. Swansea vs Liverpool United vs Tottenham Arsenal vs West Ham We could be 6 points better off by then with the others having dropped points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 27 February, 2015 Share Posted 27 February, 2015 The longer the other clubs stay in Europe/FA Cup, the better for us. Unfortunately Arsenal appear to have activated their escape clause. This time next year if we were lucky enough to get through to the CL last 16 I would think we would have enough divs on this forum begging us to chuck the kids in so we can concentrate on the league. Make that Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs. So Chelsea and City have the CL, but you'd think have the squad to handle it, and Man U, Liverpool and Arsenal still have the FA Cup. Spurs are clear of "other distractions" after the League Cup final this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 27 February, 2015 Share Posted 27 February, 2015 Man U v Arsenal on penultimate weekend. We win, Man U lose, Saints and Arsenal confirm Champs League qualification. Fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 27 February, 2015 Share Posted 27 February, 2015 Man U v Arsenal on penultimate weekend. We win, Man U lose, Saints and Arsenal confirm Champs League qualification. Fact. Or Saints at Man City last game of the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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