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Race for the top 4


richardc

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There is an interesting thread on the Mancs site about this and I thought it would be good one for us given that we are not usually participants in this race- pretty much noone sees Saints lasting the distance Here is my gut feel.

 

Chelsea - nailed on champions

 

City - seem incapable of winning without Toure and I think 2nd place could be for the taking but nailed on for top 4

 

Saints - pretty much no one sees us keeping up the pace - but we just need to continue what we have been doing and keep our squad fit for 16 more games - no distractions of cups so pretty much one game a week - and not the hardest run in - - I believe :smug:

 

Arsenal - quite reliant on Sanchez - still in 2 cups - but playing OK and I think will take 4th

 

Utd - dont seem to play as a team and not playing convincingly at the moment - still have dodgy defence - LVG - not sure of best formation - not too many cup fixtures but hopefully will just miss out

 

Spurs - seem to be riding there luck with lots of 88th minute winners - will be playing twice a week for rest of the season -

 

Liverpool - winning but not convincingly at the moment - still have dodgy defence - Rodgers not sure of formation or best team - still in two cups - difficult run in - but will have sturridge back but probably too late

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I don't see any particular reason to back any other team for top 4 (apart from Chelsea and Man City) ahead of us. In fact, I would say we are in a relatively strong position. 16 games left, do or die.

 

We currently have an "injury crisis" although all injured First XI players are expected to be fit by next weekend (excluding Jay Rod and Gallagher who have done nothing this season anyway). I

 

f we continued our form so far we would lose another 3 or 4 games, draw 2, and win 10 or 11. We would finsh with at least 75 or more points and that would very probably be enough for top four.

 

We have two games you would be inclined to write-off (Chelsea and Man City. We have played Arsenal and Man U twice so no more games against the teams in fourth and fifth. We have home matches against the teams in 6th, 7th and 8th.

 

So, on form and fixtures, there is no logical reason to expect us to do badly.

 

Man Utd, for example, still have Liverpool, West Ham and Chelsea away and Spurs, City and Arsenal at home. They are bound to drop some points.

Arsenal are still in the FA Cup and the Champions League and must have a decent chance of getting past Monaco. I fancy them to finish strongly but even if they get in front of us, that's fine as long as no one else does.

Spurs have Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham in February so that's a massive set of fixtures in terms of the chasing pack, as well as a Europa League match sandwiched in between and the League Cup final in March.

Liverpool have got at least five matches before we play them on 22 Feb (includiing Europa League quarter final three days before) and if they beat Bolton that will be six; we've got three. Unless they beat us, it's hard to see them overturning the seven point lead we have now.

 

Interestingly, Man U play Arsenal on the penultimate weekend. Could be a key week for us, what with our final game being against City.

 

You might say we are over reliant on one or two players but I'm not sure if that applies to us any more than it does to Man U (de Gea, Carrick), Arsenal (Sanchez) or Spurs (Eriksen, Kane). For us, I gues it would be Pelle and Forster.

 

The key for us is to keep making sure those wins don't turn into draws (ie. we dispatch the "winnable" games) and to ideally avoid defeat to Spurs, Lpool and West Ham.

 

I'm pretty confident.

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I don't see any particular reason to back any other team for top 4 (apart from Chelsea and Man City) ahead of us. In fact, I would say we are in a relatively strong position. 16 games left, do or die.

 

We currently have an "injury crisis" although all injured First XI players are expected to be fit by next weekend (excluding Jay Rod and Gallagher who have done nothing this season anyway). I

 

f we continued our form so far we would lose another 3 or 4 games, draw 2, and win 10 or 11. We would finsh with at least 75 or more points and that would very probably be enough for top four.

 

We have two games you would be inclined to write-off (Chelsea and Man City. We have played Arsenal and Man U twice so no more games against the teams in fourth and fifth. We have home matches against the teams in 6th, 7th and 8th.

 

So, on form and fixtures, there is no logical reason to expect us to do badly.

 

Man Utd, for example, still have Liverpool, West Ham and Chelsea away and Spurs, City and Arsenal at home. They are bound to drop some points.

Arsenal are still in the FA Cup and the Champions League and must have a decent chance of getting past Monaco. I fancy them to finish strongly but even if they get in front of us, that's fine as long as no one else does.

Spurs have Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham in February so that's a massive set of fixtures in terms of the chasing pack, as well as a Europa League match sandwiched in between and the League Cup final in March.

Liverpool have got at least five matches before we play them on 22 Feb (includiing Europa League quarter final three days before) and if they beat Bolton that will be six; we've got three. Unless they beat us, it's hard to see them overturning the seven point lead we have now.

 

Interestingly, Man U play Arsenal on the penultimate weekend. Could be a key week for us, what with our final game being against City.

 

You might say we are over reliant on one or two players but I'm not sure if that applies to us any more than it does to Man U (de Gea, Carrick), Arsenal (Sanchez) or Spurs (Eriksen, Kane). For us, I gues it would be Pelle and Forster.

 

The key for us is to keep making sure those wins don't turn into draws (ie. we dispatch the "winnable" games) and to ideally avoid defeat to Spurs, Lpool and West Ham.

 

I'm pretty confident.

 

I'm ****ting it just reading that !!

 

I know we should enjoy this end of the table but I'm not so sure I can.

 

I've read on here in recent weeks that 6th would be a terrific achievement but we have positioned ourselves so well and clung on in there it would feel a bit deflating to not upset the apple cart.

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If we're still in with a shout of top 4 on the last day of the season it'll be a great achievement. Of course having to play City, it'll be nice to have one of the places sewn up, but despite their dominance earlier in the season, I see no reason we can't get what we need from City. Depends what they need at the time too

 

We have no extra games to distract us now and the pressure is all on the other teams.

 

#Ibelieve.

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Lets hope by the last match of the season, Man City are second are more than three points behind Chelsea and more than three points clear of third, and due to play Real Madrid in the Champions League final.

 

Pessimist, I'm expecting us to be a point ahead of Chelsea with City guaranteed 3rd. :D

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I think we need to have a bit of luck for sure. If we can get toby, morgan and Victor back quickly...and keep them going, then I think we have a good a chance as any.

 

Also vital that Pelle stays fit, although if the worst does happen...I can imagine us playing Mane through the middle, or even Elia who has been known to play there. We do have alternative options if Pelle isn't available, just not a ''Pelle'' type replacement.

 

I think we're well stocked. Will be interesting to see if we bring any more in.

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Key is not to have any monster bad run like in December. One of those periods and you can say goodbye to fourth.

 

Also some of the lower teams will improve so its harder to predict our results and our rivals.

 

Going to be very interesting. I hope if we fail its because we werent good enough rather than via injury crisis

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Well we failed against Palace in the cup and with the same team thereabouts for the forseable future i think were all jumping the gun a bit and assuming were invincible right now and were not ,we lack squad deepth at the moment and that could be curtains if we have a few more already key players injured (i hope not) in the next few matches.Were not guaranteed 3 points every time we play so lets all just calm down and enjoy the present and not the future.

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Just played around with some results (not predictions!) but looking if results go with my guess of bookies favorites result for each tie (my guesses) including us, just to see how many points maybe needed. I have gone with the following (used 1-0 scores for wins, 0-0 for draws);

 

Arsenal

Arsenal v Villa 3

Spurs v Arsenal 1

Arsenal v Lei 3

palace v arsenal 3

arsenal v everton 3

qpr v arsenal 3

arsenal v whu 3

newcastle v arsenal 3

arsenal v liverpool 3

arsenal v burnley 3

arsenal v sun 3

arsenal v chelsea 0

hull v arsenal 3

arsenal v swansea 3

man u v arsenal 0

arsenal v wba 3

 

Spurs

WBA v spurs 3

Spurs v Arsenal 1

Liverpool v Spurs 1

spurs v whu 3

qpr v spurs 3

spurs v swansea 3

man u v spurs 0

spurs v leicester 3

burnley v spurs 3

spurs v villa 3

spurs v newcastle 3

saints v spurs 1

spurs v man c 0

stoke v spurs 3

spurs v hull 3

everton v spurs 3

 

Man U

Man U v Lei 3

WHU v Man U 3

swansea v man u 3

man u v sunderland 3

newcastle v man u 3

man u v spurs 3

liverpool v man u 1

man u v villa 3

man u v man c 1

everton v man u 3

man u v wba 3

palace v man u 3

man u v arsenal 3

hull v man u 3

 

Liverpool

Liverpool v West Ham 3

Everton v Liverpool 1

Liverpool v Spurs 1

saints v liverpool 1

liverpool v man c 0

liverpool v burnley 3

swansea v liverpool 3

liverpool v man u 1

arsenal v liverpool 0

liverpool v newcastle 3

liverpool v hull 3

wba v liver 3

liverpool v qpr 3

chelsea v liverpool 0

liverpool v qpr 3

stoke v liverpool 3

 

Saints

Saints v Swansea 3

QPR v saints 3

Saints v whu 3

saints v liverpool 1

wba v saints 3

saints v palace 3

chelsea v saints 0

saints v burnley 3

everton v saints 0

saints v hull 3

stoke v sfc 1

saints v spurs 1

sun v sfc 3

lei v sfc 3

saints v villa 3

man c v sfc 0

 

West Ham

Liverpool v WHU 0

WHU v Man U 0

saints v whu 0

spurs v whu 0

whu v palace 3

whu v chelsea 3

arsenal v whu 0

whu v sunderland 3

lei v whu 3

whu v stoke 3

man c v whu 0

qpr v whu 3

whu v burnley 3

villa v whu 3

whu v everton 3

newcastle v whu 3

 

would give;

chelsea 100

man c 90

man u 81

arsenal 79

 

saints 75

spurs 73

liverpool 66

west ham 63

 

clearly more points will be dropped, and quite a few games between the top 4 rivals. Can't get my head around us being that consistent, but taken on their own don't think our results look impossible. Think some of Arsenal and Man U's points look harder.

 

we certainly have a decent chance!!

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Just played around with some results (not predictions!) but looking if results go with my guess of bookies favorites result for each tie (my guesses) including us, just to see how many points maybe needed. I have gone with the following (used 1-0 scores for wins, 0-0 for draws);

 

Arsenal

Arsenal v Villa 3

Spurs v Arsenal 1

Arsenal v Lei 3

palace v arsenal 3

arsenal v everton 3

qpr v arsenal 3

arsenal v whu 3

newcastle v arsenal 3

arsenal v liverpool 3

arsenal v burnley 3

arsenal v sun 3

arsenal v chelsea 0

hull v arsenal 3

arsenal v swansea 3

man u v arsenal 0

arsenal v wba 3

 

Spurs

WBA v spurs 3

Spurs v Arsenal 1

Liverpool v Spurs 1

spurs v whu 3

qpr v spurs 3

spurs v swansea 3

man u v spurs 0

spurs v leicester 3

burnley v spurs 3

spurs v villa 3

spurs v newcastle 3

saints v spurs 1

spurs v man c 0

stoke v spurs 3

spurs v hull 3

everton v spurs 3

 

Man U

Man U v Lei 3

WHU v Man U 3

swansea v man u 3

man u v sunderland 3

newcastle v man u 3

man u v spurs 3

liverpool v man u 1

man u v villa 3

man u v man c 1

everton v man u 3

man u v wba 3

palace v man u 3

man u v arsenal 3

hull v man u 3

 

Liverpool

Liverpool v West Ham 3

Everton v Liverpool 1

Liverpool v Spurs 1

saints v liverpool 1

liverpool v man c 0

liverpool v burnley 3

swansea v liverpool 3

liverpool v man u 1

arsenal v liverpool 0

liverpool v newcastle 3

liverpool v hull 3

wba v liver 3

liverpool v qpr 3

chelsea v liverpool 0

liverpool v qpr 3

stoke v liverpool 3

 

Saints

Saints v Swansea 3

QPR v saints 3

Saints v whu 3

saints v liverpool 1

wba v saints 3

saints v palace 3

chelsea v saints 0

saints v burnley 3

everton v saints 0

saints v hull 3

stoke v sfc 1

saints v spurs 1

sun v sfc 3

lei v sfc 3

saints v villa 3

man c v sfc 0

 

West Ham

Liverpool v WHU 0

WHU v Man U 0

saints v whu 0

spurs v whu 0

whu v palace 3

whu v chelsea 3

arsenal v whu 0

whu v sunderland 3

lei v whu 3

whu v stoke 3

man c v whu 0

qpr v whu 3

whu v burnley 3

villa v whu 3

whu v everton 3

newcastle v whu 3

 

would give;

chelsea 100

man c 90

man u 81

arsenal 79

 

saints 75

spurs 73

liverpool 66

west ham 63

 

clearly more points will be dropped, and quite a few games between the top 4 rivals. Can't get my head around us being that consistent, but taken on their own don't think our results look impossible. Think some of Arsenal and Man U's points look harder.

 

we certainly have a decent chance!!

 

This

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The games against Spurs, Liverpool and West Ham are key. Get 6-9 points from those, and I think we'll be third.

 

Can't understand the Liverpool live in at the moment. They look to me, exactly what they are; Liverpool without Suarez. I'd also throw the same critism of them that we had recently - they haven't really played anybody in their recent run. People who go on their recent Chelsea performances kind of miss the point. The Drew/lost. They need to win those games in the league. Starting with the hammers. Their best chance of Champs League is the a Europa I reckon. Be interesting what Brenda does if they progress.

 

Arsenal look strong, squad getting fitter, but their defence is still awful. Still think they'll be top four.

 

Man Utd - can't work them out. They've been lucky so many times this season I keep thinking they must start hitting top form...but they don't. I just think the bigger sides will find them out.

 

Spurs are a massive threat. Similar to Utd in that they don't actually look great but still get results and Erikson is a player. League Cup and Europa may play a part. That Champs League place for the Europa may be a blessing. Imagine both Spurs and Liverpool in the semi's.

 

In about a weeks time we're going to have around £60-70mil of talent back in Morgs, Wanyama and Toby. If we can get a result against Swansea, that's a huge boost.

 

Right now, I'd be gutted if we didn't get at least Europa. It's just amazing when you look at it objectively, we've probably got the best chance of the top 7 to finish 3rd.

 

Whatever happens, what a season. They've made me believe.

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There is an interesting thread on the Mancs site about this and I thought it would be good one for us given that we are not usually participants in this race- pretty much noone sees Saints lasting the distance Here is my gut feel.

 

Chelsea - nailed on champions

 

City - seem incapable of winning without Toure and I think 2nd place could be for the taking but nailed on for top 4

 

Saints - pretty much no one sees us keeping up the pace - but we just need to continue what we have been doing and keep our squad fit for 16 more games - no distractions of cups so pretty much one game a week - and not the hardest run in - - I believe :smug:

 

Arsenal - quite reliant on Sanchez - still in 2 cups - but playing OK and I think will take 4th

 

Utd - dont seem to play as a team and not playing convincingly at the moment - still have dodgy defence - LVG - not sure of best formation - not too many cup fixtures but hopefully will just miss out

 

Spurs - seem to be riding there luck with lots of 88th minute winners - will be playing twice a week for rest of the season -

 

Liverpool - winning but not convincingly at the moment - still have dodgy defence - Rodgers not sure of formation or best team - still in two cups - difficult run in - but will have sturridge back but probably too late

 

Chelsea: not sure about "nailed on" but definitely the number one contenders.

 

Man City: still in for the title. We'll know more about them once they've played Chelsea again.

 

Man Utd: their "dodgy defence" is the third best in the Premier League. People need to update their assessments of them, because they seem to still be based on how they played at the start of the season. They've conceded six goals in the last ten matches.

 

Arsenal; as you say

 

Spurs: I'm actually a little nervous about them, because they seem to have this annoying knack of winning despite playing rubbish. Let's hope the extra games wear them out.

 

Liverpool: Improving all the time unfortunately, and I think Sturridge could make a big difference when he returns.

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Chelsea: not sure about "nailed on" but definitely the number one contenders.

 

Man City: still in for the title. We'll know more about them once they've played Chelsea again.

 

Man Utd: their "dodgy defence" is the third best in the Premier League. People need to update their assessments of them, because they seem to still be based on how they played at the start of the season. They've conceded six goals in the last ten matches.

 

Arsenal; as you say

 

Spurs: I'm actually a little nervous about them, because they seem to have this annoying knack of winning despite playing rubbish. Let's hope the extra games wear them out.

 

Liverpool: Improving all the time unfortunately, and I think Sturridge could make a big difference when he returns.

 

Liverpool have just showed over two matches (to show it's no fluke) how to beat Chelsea. We showed it in glimpses too. Spurs definitely showed it. They dont look as unbeatable as they did earlier in the season.

 

We have a great chance. The above results predictor does not seem to take account of Arsenal's inconsistency this season.

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Big month ahead for us.

 

I'm just hoping Liverpool and spurs get left behind due to a back log of fixtures . Would like to be in the position where their focus shifts to Europa league as it becomes their most realistic route to champions league .

 

That'll leave arsenal and utd. Given a fair wind and a lot of luck with injuries we could pip one of them . However, Arsenal are capable of some sublime performances and results and Utd have got world class attacking players .

 

If we take every game as it comes and Ron can relax the players we can do it. I look at it very much like Liverpool and their chase for the tittle last season . It was their one chance , everything was in place , but the nerves got to them . Their game management against Chelsea and Palace was terrible , they went all fuzzy and lost their heads . Chelsea were there for a draw and they should have played out a bore fest. Palace at 3-0 was game over, sit in and see it out. In any other situation I would back us to get the points , but when nerves kick in it does strange things to people . If we can play with a nothing to lose attitude , we can do it. But when it dawns on you how near you are , it's a whole different ball game .

 

Gut feeling , we will have a dodgy spell and will end up 5/6, still a fantastic achievement .

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Just played around with some results (not predictions!) but looking if results go with my guess of bookies favorites result for each tie (my guesses) including us, just to see how many points maybe needed. I have gone with the following (used 1-0 scores for wins, 0-0 for draws);

 

Arsenal

Arsenal v Villa 3

Spurs v Arsenal 1

Arsenal v Lei 3

palace v arsenal 3

arsenal v everton 3

qpr v arsenal 3

arsenal v whu 3

newcastle v arsenal 3

arsenal v liverpool 3

arsenal v burnley 3

arsenal v sun 3

arsenal v chelsea 0

hull v arsenal 3

arsenal v swansea 3

man u v arsenal 0

arsenal v wba 3

 

Spurs

WBA v spurs 3

Spurs v Arsenal 1

Liverpool v Spurs 1

spurs v whu 3

qpr v spurs 3

spurs v swansea 3

man u v spurs 0

spurs v leicester 3

burnley v spurs 3

spurs v villa 3

spurs v newcastle 3

saints v spurs 1

spurs v man c 0

stoke v spurs 3

spurs v hull 3

everton v spurs 3

 

Man U

Man U v Lei 3

WHU v Man U 3

swansea v man u 3

man u v sunderland 3

newcastle v man u 3

man u v spurs 3

liverpool v man u 1

man u v villa 3

man u v man c 1

everton v man u 3

man u v wba 3

palace v man u 3

man u v arsenal 3

hull v man u 3

 

Liverpool

Liverpool v West Ham 3

Everton v Liverpool 1

Liverpool v Spurs 1

saints v liverpool 1

liverpool v man c 0

liverpool v burnley 3

swansea v liverpool 3

liverpool v man u 1

arsenal v liverpool 0

liverpool v newcastle 3

liverpool v hull 3

wba v liver 3

liverpool v qpr 3

chelsea v liverpool 0

liverpool v qpr 3

stoke v liverpool 3

 

Saints

Saints v Swansea 3

QPR v saints 3

Saints v whu 3

saints v liverpool 1

wba v saints 3

saints v palace 3

chelsea v saints 0

saints v burnley 3

everton v saints 0

saints v hull 3

stoke v sfc 1

saints v spurs 1

sun v sfc 3

lei v sfc 3

saints v villa 3

man c v sfc 0

 

West Ham

Liverpool v WHU 0

WHU v Man U 0

saints v whu 0

spurs v whu 0

whu v palace 3

whu v chelsea 3

arsenal v whu 0

whu v sunderland 3

lei v whu 3

whu v stoke 3

man c v whu 0

qpr v whu 3

whu v burnley 3

villa v whu 3

whu v everton 3

newcastle v whu 3

 

would give;

chelsea 100

man c 90

man u 81

arsenal 79

 

saints 75

spurs 73

liverpool 66

west ham 63

 

clearly more points will be dropped, and quite a few games between the top 4 rivals. Can't get my head around us being that consistent, but taken on their own don't think our results look impossible. Think some of Arsenal and Man U's points look harder.

 

we certainly have a decent chance!!

 

Well at least you've finally realised that Champions League finishes require a decent level of form. Well done, you've given Saints 2 points per game instead of the relegation form that you said was "the level required" from your previous "analysis".

 

Arsenal dropping only 8 points for the rest of the season on 2.5 points per game is pretty bold and proves you shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a list of upcoming fixtures.

 

And if this isn't a prediction, what is it? You've taken the time to list out points per game for nearly 100 individual football matches but not to the extent that you think any of them will happen?

 

If you simply think Arsenal are going to pip us to fourth you could have said that in one line. Or are you going to say you don't think that is going to happen either?

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The others around us will drop points. The worrying thing is, I think it's fair to say we've been playing to our maximum potential so far this season, whereas the others around us haven't. It's vital we stay ahead of our rivals, if we drop a few places and have to play catch up, it might be too much of an ask.

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I feel far less confident of top 4 now. Not sure why, probably because ManU, Spuds, Arsenal & even Liverpool are all looking very good. Hey, if we keep winning then brilliant, just feel we may be due for a wobble. Hope I'm being an idiot. Let's see what today brings.

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Strange how we all worry about the form of others when we are top of the form table! Next weekend both Spurs and Arsenal may drop points. The key games are against Liverpool and Spurs, even a draw would be ok against both, just vital not to lose. One game at a time, I think if we lose to day people will be worried, but we're playing Swansea at a good time.

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listening and getting frustrated at the commentator on sky ,they are just willing us to fail by using old cliche phrases and yes we should be winning these games as Arsenal would have done or Spurs or even Liverpool i think they are readying themselfs for oh unlucky but they fell short in the end scenario ...... frustrating game but hey ho thats watching the Saints for you.

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