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Champions League - Can we do it?

Saint Garrett

By Saint Garrett,
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OttawaSaint

OttawaSaint

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¡

The answer to the OP.....will become apparent after our games at Stamford Bridge....and Citeh. Losing those 6 points will be crucial to any potential Euro success.

 

If we are " good enough " to come away from those two games with points in the bag, then we might be OK.....

......otherwise...:mcinnes: it's back to the drawing board (sorry )...." The Black Box" to plan next season.

 

Seeing as the Citeh game is the last game of the season we will know for 100% whether we qualified at that point...

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Saint_Tony

Saint_Tony

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Would be gutted to come 7th now, but it's looking a strong possibility. Thinking about it though, we'd struggle in the CL and would have to play a qualifier for finishing fourth anyway. I'd like to see us go on a run like Everton have in Europe, otherwise it's a waste of time if we're going to disrespect it like Spurs and Liverpool. I'd rather that and finish mid table next season. It's time to accept this might have been our only opportunity to reach the next level. We've tried and failed. Oh well, it's been a great season and there are plenty of points still to be won. It really might depend on Pelle overcoming his bad run of form, but I'm not blaming him for our slump.

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Mr Biscuits

Mr Biscuits

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I would hate to finish this season with our only achievement being that we avoided relegation.

 

There is no point putting in all this effort season after season only to keep coming away with nothing. We never get near a cup final, we've challenged and then fallen away from finishing in a league position that actually means something.

Yet again if we don't qualify for something then we will face another summer fighting to keep the talent at the club and this simply has to stop. What is the point of putting in all the effort of finding these players, getting them to sign and then improving them if all they do is leave?

 

If the club are at all serious about where they want to go, we need to see better cup runs and better investment in the squad.

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Saint_Tony

Saint_Tony

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I would hate to finish this season with our only achievement being that we avoided relegation.

 

There is no point putting in all this effort season after season only to keep coming away with nothing. We never get near a cup final, we've challenged and then fallen away from finishing in a league position that actually means something.

Yet again if we don't qualify for something then we will face another summer fighting to keep the talent at the club and this simply has to stop. What is the point of putting in all the effort of finding these players, getting them to sign and then improving them if all they do is leave?

 

If the club are at all serious about where they want to go, we need to see better cup runs and better investment in the squad.

That's all well and good, but it's easier said and done. Do agree though that all our efforts will have been a waste of time if we finish 7th or 8th, just as they were last season.

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Mr Biscuits

Mr Biscuits

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That's all well and good, but it's easier said and done. Do agree though that all our efforts will have been a waste of time if we finish 7th or 8th, just as they were last season.

 

isn't that what the people running the club are paid to worry about and achieve?

I'm just sick and tired of us putting in these fantastic runs early in the season only to see it fizzle out. Missing a sitter in front of goal is inexcusable at this level - the only player I've ever forgiven for that is Sam Gallagher on his debut against the Arse. And only because it as his PL debut. You do not pay someone stupid money a week to miss a goal like that.

 

The possession is brilliant, the defence is still really good the team just don't appear to be hungry to do anything to get the goal. so so frustrating to watch.

(and what is just as annoying is that you just know the smug punditry are all going to claim that they knew all along we couldn't do it. Just for once I would like to rub their collective overpaid smug faces right in it)

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Whitey Grandad

Whitey Grandad

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isn't that what the people running the club are paid to worry about and achieve?

I'm just sick and tired of us putting in these fantastic runs early in the season only to see it fizzle out. Missing a sitter in front of goal is inexcusable at this level - the only player I've ever forgiven for that is Sam Gallagher on his debut against the Arse. And only because it as his PL debut. You do not pay someone stupid money a week to miss a goal like that.

 

The possession is brilliant, the defence is still really good the team just don't appear to be hungry to do anything to get the goal. so so frustrating to watch.

(and what is just as annoying is that you just know the smug punditry are all going to claim that they knew all along we couldn't do it. Just for once I would like to rub their collective overpaid smug faces right in it)

 

Mané at Tottenham?

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Mr Biscuits

Mr Biscuits

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finishing anwhere from 6th to 17th just means that we avoided relegation. nothing else. Especially if we don't even get near a cup final.

relying on other teams to allow us to achieve something is p!ss poor as well. We should be doing this things on merit not because someone else won a cup.

'nearly' means nothing. I 'nearly' win the national lottery every week but I don't see my bank balance changing much.

 

I'm not angry. Just incredibly frustrated. We have a great team who have really achieved this season. Pelle needs to get his Mojo back. And if we're serious about Europe we need to do it sooner rather than later because we are going to lose some very talented players in the summer (again) because we'll have done nothing this season.

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Saint_Tony

Saint_Tony

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It does seem like our season has fallen to pieces in the space of a few weeks, which like Napalm says, is so frustrating. I really feel sorry for Pelle, he needs a goal in the next game or a break. Maybe things have been made too easy for him knowing he's going to be playing regardless of form. Either way, a team with only one central striker is never going to qualify for the CL, not in a million years. The main problem is, the fans are all saying 'let's get a 20 goal a season striker', but they are a rare breed these days, and if ever available get snapped up by a top 6 club if they're not already there. To think people were moaning Lambert was past it last season when he had double figures for goals and assists. Imagine where we might have been this season with a player making that sort of contribution.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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finishing anwhere from 6th to 17th just means that we avoided relegation. nothing else. Especially if we don't even get near a cup final.

relying on other teams to allow us to achieve something is p!ss poor as well. We should be doing this things on merit not because someone else won a cup.

'nearly' means nothing. I 'nearly' win the national lottery every week but I don't see my bank balance changing much.

 

I'm not angry. Just incredibly frustrated. We have a great team who have really achieved this season. Pelle needs to get his Mojo back. And if we're serious about Europe we need to do it sooner rather than later because we are going to lose some very talented players in the summer (again) because we'll have done nothing this season.

If Chelsea win today, 6th will mean Europe.

 

If Saints finishing 6th is frustrating for you then you might need a little bit of perspective. Over the next twenty years we are unlikely to do much better (much like we haven't in the previous twenty).

 

We're not going to be the next Manchester City. You do get that, right?

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scotty

scotty

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Do you think this looks realistic?

 

West Brom (A) - W

Crystal Palace (H) - W

Chelsea (A) - L

Burnley (H) - W

Everton (A) - D

Hull (H) - W

Stoke (A) - D

Tottenham (H) - D

Sunderland (A)- D

Leicester (A) - W

Aston Villa (H) - W

Man City (A) - L

 

6-4-2? Finishing with that record gives us a 51% chance of finishing 4th, according to this website.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

or how about this? plausible?

 

West Brom (A) - W

Crystal Palace (H) - W

Chelsea (A) - L

Burnley (H) - W

Everton (A) - D

Hull (H) - W

Stoke (A) - D

Tottenham (H) - D

Sunderland (A)- W

Leicester (A) - W

Aston Villa (H) - W

Man City (A) - L

 

7-3-2? that gives us a 78% chance of being in 4th place

 

or how about this?

 

West Brom (A) - W

Crystal Palace (H) - W

Chelsea (A) - L

Burnley (H) - W

Everton (A) - D

Hull (H) - W

Stoke (A) - D

Tottenham (H) - L

Sunderland (A)- W

Leicester (A) - W

Aston Villa (H) - W

Man City (A) - L

 

7-2-3? gives us a 64% chance of being in 4th.

 

I am trying to remain optimistic. We are not in great form right now, but we get everyone back from injury and suspension, all of those results seem plausible, considering our season so far.

 

Given that all three scenarios included beating west brom, I'd say we've had it. If we don't beat palace its definitely game over, IMHO. Same goes if the dippers somehow turn citeh over, (though I don't see that happening.)

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andoru

andoru

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I've revised my hopes for the season to simply bettering our best points total (56). It's a bit of a come down from the high of aiming for CL, but that's unrealistic now (although I know it's not impossible). Even Europa might be a stretch for us, the way the other clubs are playing. I think we are going to end up 7th. I think/hope we'll stay close in terms of points and not get cut completely adrift, but nobody remembers that, only where you finish. If we end up 7th, people will choose to remember how we choked and fell out of the top four after so long. That's going to be annoying to deal with.

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SaintTex

SaintTex

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I've revised my hopes for the season to simply bettering our best points total (56). It's a bit of a come down from the high of aiming for CL, but that's unrealistic now (although I know it's not impossible). Even Europa might be a stretch for us, the way the other clubs are playing. I think we are going to end up 7th. I think/hope we'll stay close in terms of points and not get cut completely adrift, but nobody remembers that, only where you finish. If we end up 7th, people will choose to remember how we choked and fell out of the top four after so long. That's going to be annoying to deal with.
Sadly, what we get for a 7th place finish is another summer exodus...

 

pretty good, but not good enough to keep our best players who have the quality to "move up" to clubs that 1) can pay large wages and 2) play European football.

 

of course, these are the very players that make a 7th place finish possible. And around and around we go.

 

2 steps forward, 2 steps back.

 

2 steps forward, 2 steps back.

 

2 steps forward, 2 steps back.

 

2 steps forward, 2 steps back.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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Still think Europa is likely. After today's Chelsea win - does that not mean 6th is now Europa too? (as I think they stopped giving it to the runner up in the league cup?)

They've never given a place to the LC runner up.

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Turkish

Turkish

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They've never given a place to the LC runner up.

 

I've never forgotten how angry I was in 1992 when it was the first season they stopped giving the zenith data systems trophy runners up a by into the knock out stages of the champions league. Fuming I was, FA stitch up usual.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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Sadly, what we get for a 7th place finish is another summer exodus...

 

pretty good, but not good enough to keep our best players who have the quality to "move up" to clubs that 1) can pay large wages and 2) play European football.

 

of course, these are the very players that make a 7th place finish possible. And around and around we go.

 

2 steps forward, 2 steps back.

 

2 steps forward, 2 steps back.

 

2 steps forward, 2 steps back.

 

2 steps forward, 2 steps back.

In fairness, not that many steps back in the last five years.

 

Also in fairness we are never going to relentlessly move upwards until we win the league.

 

The scenario you outline, to be honest, seems fine to me.

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Turkish

Turkish

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Don't think we'll finish below 7th, so just have to hope one of the top 4 win the FA Cup for us to get Europa league. Would still be an absolutely huge achievement for us.

 

We can still qualify by finishing 8th if the charity shield is won by a team who qualify for the euro league by being winners or runners up in the FA cup, can't we?

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sadoldgit

sadoldgit

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It does seem like our season has fallen to pieces in the space of a few weeks, which like Napalm says, is so frustrating. I really feel sorry for Pelle, he needs a goal in the next game or a break. Maybe things have been made too easy for him knowing he's going to be playing regardless of form. Either way, a team with only one central striker is never going to qualify for the CL, not in a million years. The main problem is, the fans are all saying 'let's get a 20 goal a season striker', but they are a rare breed these days, and if ever available get snapped up by a top 6 club if they're not already there. To think people were moaning Lambert was past it last season when he had double figures for goals and assists. Imagine where we might have been this season with a player making that sort of contribution.

 

The season is the sum of its parts. Every dropped point plays its part, not just the recent ones. The only league position that counts is the final one. We are not suddenly a poor team or are playing badly, but our form in front of goal has been poor. Add that to some of the amazing goals that have been scored against us and that is a problem. I would be more worried if we were being played off the park every week, but we aren't. If we could pay the wages of the so called big clubs then maybe we would have the strength of depth in the squad needed to maintain consistent results across the season. I think we all knew that the big clubs would get their act together by this stage of the season. I still think we are having a really good season given everything that happened last summer.

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The9

The9

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From this position, with the fixtures we have, we still have every chance of finishing in the top 4.

 

Our current form needs to change very quickly, of course, so we can go back to beating bottom half sides with the regularity we were doing it for the first 4 months of the season. Another couple of runs of 4 wins on the bounce like we've managed already will see us in with a chance.

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Wes Tender

Wes Tender

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What a load of b*llocks comparing the respective managers' performances during the second half of the season, despite Rogers also having been at another club during the time scale and Van Gaal not even having managed in England before this season. Comparisons only have any validity when one is comparing apples with apples, not oranges.

And I for one am delighted that we have been removed from the equation, as that reduces the pressure on us and we can sneak back in under the radar when the other contenders take points away from each other.

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Turkish

Turkish

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What a load of b*llocks comparing the respective managers' performances during the second half of the season, despite Rogers also having been at another club during the time scale and Van Gaal not even having managed in England before this season. Comparisons only have any validity when one is comparing apples with apples, not oranges.

And I for one am delighted that we have been removed from the equation, as that reduces the pressure on us and we can sneak back in under the radar when the other contenders take points away from each other.

 

im sure the players are skipping round staplewood with gay abandon right this second delighted that the Daily Mail have removed their paricular millstone from round our necks.

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JonnyOldBoy

JonnyOldBoy

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We will not qualify for Europe. Koeman has done a fantastic job but the other teams in the league have us sussed now and just let us play our pretty football knowing there is no edge.... We would actually be better playing route one in many games but Koeman will never do that. I have my sympathy for his reasons.... he is a footballer through and through... So steady as she goes for this season and with the £75M we will get from the sales of Spider/Clyne/Toby(clause money)/JayRod and perhaps W-P we can move onto the next phase..... ( of course 4-0 tonight may make my post here loo stupid.... here is hoping )

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Redslo

Redslo

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We will not qualify for Europe. Koeman has done a fantastic job but the other teams in the league have us sussed now and just let us play our pretty football knowing there is no edge.... We would actually be better playing route one in many games but Koeman will never do that. I have my sympathy for his reasons.... he is a footballer through and through... So steady as she goes for this season and with the £75M we will get from the sales of Spider/Clyne/Toby(clause money)/JayRod and perhaps W-P we can move onto the next phase..... ( of course 4-0 tonight may make my post here loo stupid.... here is hoping )

 

You do realize that sixth place now qualifies for Europe and if Arsenal, Man U, or Liverpool win the FA Cup seventh place will qualify too.

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Saintandy666

Saintandy666

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You do realize that sixth place now qualifies for Europe and if Arsenal, Man U, or Liverpool win the FA Cup seventh place will qualify too.

 

I think in FA Cup it stills goes to runners up? But if it was say Man U vs. Arsenal then we are good down to 7th I think.

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Redslo

Redslo

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I think in FA Cup it stills goes to runners up? But if it was say Man U vs. Arsenal then we are good down to 7th I think.

 

No it does not. That rule has been changed effective for qualifying for the 2015-2016 Europa League.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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So to clarify, what needs to happen for us to qualify when we finish 7th? Is it an FA cup final between any of Arsenal/Liverpool/utd?

To clarify I would forget talking about who is in the final, it's about who wins it, if it one of those three we'll likely get a Europa slot in seventh (unless Liverpool finish eighth and win the cup of course, then they'd get it).

 

A big two final allows us to know earlier, but not essential - the losing finalist can be anyone.

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Turkish

Turkish

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So to clarify, what needs to happen for us to qualify when we finish 7th? Is it an FA cup final between any of Arsenal/Liverpool/utd?

 

Yes, but if one of those qualify for the champions league and the other finish 7th and win the cup then the team that finish 6th go into a four play off with the charity shield winners or runner up, (if the winners didn't qualify for the champions league) league cup runners up and fair play league winners. The winners of that completion win the other euro league place.

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Saintandy666

Saintandy666

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No it does not. That rule has been changed effective for qualifying for the 2015-2016 Europa League.

 

Ah - fair enough. Pretty damn good chance of all top 7 getting it then! Though I think we have a very good chance of 5th - not so confident about 4th right now as I was a few weeks back.

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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If we finish 7th, we will qualify for Europa League if the FA Cup is won by a team in the top 6 (Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd being the only candidates)

 

If we finish 6th, we qualify for Europa League as long as Chelsea - as League Cup winners - finish above us (racing certainty). If by some utterly weird quirk of fate, Chelsea drop to 7th or lower, we still qualify if the FA Cup is won by one of the top 5.

 

If we finish 5th, we qualify for Europa League for certain.

 

As far as I can work out, if we finish 8th or worse, we definitely do not qualify for Europe.

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Redslo

Redslo

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If we finish 7th, we will qualify for Europa League if the FA Cup is won by a team in the top 6 (Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd being the only candidates)

 

If we finish 6th, we qualify for Europa League as long as Chelsea - as League Cup winners - finish above us (racing certainty). If by some utterly weird quirk of fate, Chelsea drop to 7th or lower, we still qualify if the FA Cup is won by one of the top 5.

 

If we finish 5th, we qualify for Europa League for certain.

 

As far as I can work out, if we finish 8th or worse, we definitely do not qualify for Europe.

 

We can qualify by finishing 8th under one of three very unlikely circumstances:

 

Arsenal wins the Champions League, but finishes fifth or lower in the Premier League.

 

Everton wins the Europa League and finishes 5th, 6th, or 7th in the Premier League.

 

Someone who finishes above us is excluded from Europe as a Financial Fair Play sanction--realistically only possible for Manchester City if they really, really botch their accounting.

 

We could also qualify for Europa if England qualifies for a place via the fair play table and we finish ahead of everyone else who hasn't already qualified for Europe on the English Fair Play table--but as of February 6 we are well down that table.

 

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/fair-play.html

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Redslo

Redslo

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Jesus, these permutations are ridiculous, let's just win every bloody match and see where we end up.

 

That would be my choice as well. It would put us somewhere between 1st and 6th but most likely third.

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sadoldgit

sadoldgit

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Whatever happens now, this has been an incredible season. After what happened last summer many thought that the club had imploded and were bound for relegation. However, we are two winds short of joint second at the moment and have played very well. Ok, two periods of dips in form but in both those times we have not been played off the park. I see lots of criticism for players like Forster,Tadic, Pelle and JWP yet without them we would not be where we are. Even RK has come in for some stick of late.

 

No one is above criticism and I accept that. But I also think that we should remind ourselves of where we were a few short years ago, what happened last summer, and be thankful that we can even think that CL or Europa football is within our grasp for next season. Even if we don't make either, the fact that we have been challenging for either is no small feat this season.

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Redslo

Redslo

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Qualifying for Europe is a simple concept made complicated by idiots.

 

It is simple enough at the end of the season when you can look at what happened. Figuring out the possibilities along the way is not so simple.

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