Dalek2003 Posted 12 January, 2015 Posted 12 January, 2015 Still got to get to that magic 40 points yet Quite right, I think someone said 41 to be mathematically safe. However, it looks like we will achieve that. I have always said that we should bow out of the Cups unless we are safe. I would say as we are more or less safe that our best strategy is to go on a Cup run and be happy with a 6th to 10th finish.
cellone Posted 12 January, 2015 Posted 12 January, 2015 Quite right, I think someone said 41 to be mathematically safe. However, it looks like we will achieve that. I have always said that we should bow out of the Cups unless we are safe. I would say as we are more or less safe that our best strategy is to go on a Cup run and be happy with a 6th to 10th finish. You're all about ambition and competition eh Dalek
bilbot79 Posted 12 January, 2015 Posted 12 January, 2015 ...Nobody believed it was possible.... I did, so I put a tenner on us at 50-1. Will pay for the trip to Barcelona anyway
bilbot79 Posted 12 January, 2015 Posted 12 January, 2015 To be fair, when players were leaving left right and centre, with reasoning along the lines that the ambition went with Cortese, then it's quite easy to come to that idea! But to be fair, this is a solid club. It doesn't seem to matter who manages us or who chairs us, we are strong and resilient throughout. One constant though, the Liebherr's. Forever in our debt. Forever in their debt
aintforever Posted 12 January, 2015 Posted 12 January, 2015 (edited) Loved this bit: "Their victory over United meant that they have moved back ahead of every single player who moved on in search of greater glories." Our last 9 fixtures: Man Utd A Arsenal H Chelsea H Crystal Palace A Everton H Burnley A Man Utd H Arsenal A Man City H To be third in the league, with the best defensive record and +20 goal difference after that little run is pretty damn good. Edited 12 January, 2015 by aintforever
Saintmike5 Posted 12 January, 2015 Posted 12 January, 2015 I'm sure the Mirror have posted articles about how we wouldn't do it themselves. Indeed they did, Ollie Holt himself predicted we'd finish 20th on the day before the season started (I kept the article for the lols!) along with three other Mirror colleagues who all predicted we'd get relegated.
Redslo Posted 12 January, 2015 Posted 12 January, 2015 Forever in their debt Could be true both ways.
Redslo Posted 12 January, 2015 Posted 12 January, 2015 Indeed they did, Ollie Holt himself predicted we'd finish 20th on the day before the season started (I kept the article for the lols!) along with three other Mirror colleagues who all predicted we'd get relegated. Do you have a link to this? I can't seem to google it up even though I remember reading it back then.
SarniaSaint Posted 12 January, 2015 Posted 12 January, 2015 Exactly what I wanted to say. Not only are we not in the Champions League, we haven't qualified, and the season isn't over. In the words of Yogi Berra, it ain't over 'till it's over. Deja Vu all over again...........just one game at a time .......don't think Yogi said that
whelk Posted 12 January, 2015 Posted 12 January, 2015 Do you have a link to this? I can't seem to google it up even though I remember reading it back then. Meant to post here but appear to have bumped on another thread
Redslo Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 Quite right, I think someone said 41 to be mathematically safe. However, it looks like we will achieve that. I have always said that we should bow out of the Cups unless we are safe. I would say as we are more or less safe that our best strategy is to go on a Cup run and be happy with a 6th to 10th finish. I think that, at this point in the season, 57 is about what it takes to be mathematically safe. Of course, that will change as not every other game will go against the Saints for the rest of the season.
Hamilton Saint Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 "... some sceptics laughed..." "... were tipped for relegation ..." "... the grisly predictions made about their fate last summer ..." "... many tipped them for relegation ..." "... they are embarrassing a lot of their former doubters ..." This is Oliver Holt, who predicted on August 16th. that Saints would finish 20th. He doesn't mention once that he was one of the skeptical laughers predicting relegation.
SaintBobby Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 I think that, at this point in the season, 57 is about what it takes to be mathematically safe. Of course, that will change as not every other game will go against the Saints for the rest of the season. Huh? 57? At the start of the season, 57 is basically enough to guarantee safety. 57 points is W 19 D 0 L 19. For that to end up with you relegated would require all 20 teams to end up with exactly 57 points and for you to go down on GD. A bit far fetched...
Golden Balls Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/premier-league-predictions-mirror-football-4056741
Redslo Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 (edited) Huh? 57? At the start of the season, 57 is basically enough to guarantee safety. 57 points is W 19 D 0 L 19. For that to end up with you relegated would require all 20 teams to end up with exactly 57 points and for you to go down on GD. A bit far fetched... But what if Southampton went 19 0 19. Two teams went 0 0 38 and the rest went 20 0 18 or 21 0 17. 57 does not guarantee safety at the start of the year. I am speaking mathematically. Basically, assume that the two teams now at the bottom lose every game. The other 17 teams split up the results so they all have almost the same number of points. Southampton would have to get 57 (or maybe 55, 56, 57, or 58 my calculation was not intended to be that precise) to guarantee finishing ahead of three teams. I know this is ridiculous. But it is what is required to guarantee safety mathematically, rather than practically. Edited 13 January, 2015 by Redslo
Kingsland Codger Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 ...Nobody believed it was possible.... I did, so I put a tenner on us at 50-1. Will pay for the trip to Barcelona anyway A trip to Barcelona is but the first part of the chunky costs coming our way. It's the trip to Tokyo to win the FIFA World Club Championship in December 2016 that I'm saving up for.
Saint_Tony Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 We're only 11/8 to finish in the top 4, 8/15 not to. That shows we are being taken seriously now.
Doctoroncall Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 "... some sceptics laughed..." "... were tipped for relegation ..." "... the grisly predictions made about their fate last summer ..." "... many tipped them for relegation ..." "... they are embarrassing a lot of their former doubters ..." This is Oliver Holt, who predicted on August 16th. that Saints would finish 20th. He doesn't mention once that he was one of the skeptical laughers predicting relegation. He also had West Ham to come down with us. It would be great if they also made the top four.
hutch Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 We couldn't have picked a better year for our run at Europe. The rule changes will certainly increase the places available on PL merit. It's pretty much nailed-on that the top 6 will be in Europe next season, and there's an outside chance of top 7. I'm quietly confident of a Europa League spot next season, with a very slim outside chance of Champion's League.
CB Fry Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 But what if Southampton went 19 0 19. Two teams went 0 0 38 and the rest went 20 0 18 or 21 0 17. 57 does not guarantee safety at the start of the year. I am speaking mathematically. Basically, assume that the two teams now at the bottom lose every game. The other 17 teams split up the results so they all have almost the same number of points. Southampton would have to get 57 (or maybe 55, 56, 57, or 58 my calculation was not intended to be that precise) to guarantee finishing ahead of three teams. I know this is ridiculous. But it is what is required to guarantee safety mathematically, rather than practically. Tip: this information is irrelevant.
Saint IQ Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 I find it all too easy to imagine finishing 4th, then losing the qualifying round to an East European minnow I haven't even heard of yet. That would be The Saints Way :-/ That's why I would prefer an F.A cup victory to a top 4 finish. Both will be sweet though, bring it on!
Crazy Diamond Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 But what if Southampton won 19, drew 19 and lost 19. Corrected for those of us who don't want another part of our life changed by American 'football'.
Ex Lion Tamer Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 At the start of the season it was the sensible view to think that we would probably stall and drop down the table. But there was always a chance that we'd make champions league, maybe 20%. With every passing week that we are still in the top 4, the chances of us making it increase. I'd still say its now about 40% chance because it is such a tough thing to do, but others are welcome to be more positive. Anyone who said we had no chance was just as much of an idiot as anyone who says we definitely will make it.
SaintBobby Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 But what if Southampton went 19 0 19. Two teams went 0 0 38 and the rest went 20 0 18 or 21 0 17. 57 does not guarantee safety at the start of the year. I am speaking mathematically. Basically, assume that the two teams now at the bottom lose every game. The other 17 teams split up the results so they all have almost the same number of points. Southampton would have to get 57 (or maybe 55, 56, 57, or 58 my calculation was not intended to be that precise) to guarantee finishing ahead of three teams. I know this is ridiculous. But it is what is required to guarantee safety mathematically, rather than practically. Bit of a side issue this. By the way, it is impossible for two teams to lose all 38 games. If you lose a game, you have to have lost it to someone. So some other club has chalked up a win. As I said though, you can technically be relegated on 57 points, but not on 58. But if this extreme mathematical position is true at the start of the season, it can't be a figure that high (57) with 21 matches gone. As ever, of course, in reality, it will be about 0.9points a game for safety..
SaintPete Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 ...Nobody believed it was possible.... I did, so I put a tenner on us at 50-1. Will pay for the trip to Barcelona anyway I believed when watching us during the 4-0 win against Newcastle (third game). Tried to put £30 on at 100-1 but it wouldn't let me bet 'in-game'. After the game the odds went down to 50-1. I thought I'd wait for us to lose a game for the odds to go back up, but they just kept plummetting . Now my £30 would win me about £50 rather than £1,500 - £3,000. I put a £25 bet on us making the Champions League at the start of last season at 125-1. Didn't work out too well but we must have underachieved last season ... Had a minor success on Sunday though. £23.50 bet on us to win at 7/2 paid for my ticket and trip to Old Trafford to see us win in their own back yard!
Saint_Ash Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 ...Nobody believed it was possible.... I did, so I put a tenner on us at 50-1. Will pay for the trip to Barcelona anyway Excellent gambling but I would trade some of that out now for profit either way.
Redslo Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 Tip: this information is irrelevant. I don't know about that. I thought we were all quite pleased last year when we have clinched premier league survival and at how early we did it. The same should be true this year.
Redslo Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 Corrected for those of us who don't want another part of our life changed by American 'football'. And instead want the longer seasons of Ice Hockey or Basketball.
Redslo Posted 13 January, 2015 Posted 13 January, 2015 Bit of a side issue this. By the way, it is impossible for two teams to lose all 38 games. If you lose a game, you have to have lost it to someone. So some other club has chalked up a win. As I said though, you can technically be relegated on 57 points, but not on 58. But if this extreme mathematical position is true at the start of the season, it can't be a figure that high (57) with 21 matches gone. As ever, of course, in reality, it will be about 0.9points a game for safety.. Good point. So they each go 1 0 37 or 0 2 36. Those two teams don't matter for the mathematical safety thing. As for the 57 points (or so) now, I believe I am right. I worked through it and that is what I came up with. It will fall as teams draw or as teams pull above 57 points so that other teams must drop lower. Look at it this way. At the start of the season two teams can lose all their games except to each other--that leaves 378 x 3 = 1134 points available for the other 18 teams. If they split them exactly equally that is 63 points each. So at the start of the season it takes 64 points to guarantee safety. At this point, QPR and Leicester have played each other once. All their other points have been taken from other teams. That is 8 wins and 9 draws or 42 points. The rest of the league has 53 draws which means another 53 lost points for a total of 95 missing points. 1134 - 95 = 1039 divided by 18 equals 57.7 so right now 58 points is needed for mathematical safety. Btw, this is a much easier and better way of calculating it than what I did the first time. I also agree that, in reality, it will take something slightly under 38 points to be safe.
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