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SO16_Saint

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Do we now, 21 games in, 3rd in the league, start to realistically think about European Football.

 

Be it Champions League or Europa League.

 

I'd personally feel a bit (lot) disappointed if we didn't make either from here.

 

Just imagine hearing the Chsmpons League music at St Mary's!

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I have a horrible feeling this will come back and bite me in the ar5e at some stage but I honestly think we'll get European football this season. If you look at the teams around us you can see some real weaknesses in their squads that aren't as evident as in ours.

 

Clearly Chelsea and City are 1st and 2nd. Nothing's going to change that. Man Utd will probably get 3rd, Van Gaal will use their poor form as an excuse to sign more players. It's between us, Arsenal and Spurs for 4th now.

 

Arsenal are a very good side, but if you take Sanchez out they don't really have much going forward. Welbeck, Giroud, Walcott and Chambo are good players but Sanchez has scored all their goals and provides most of their assists too. An injury to him could mean they slip away from the Top 4.

 

Spurs similarly are a decent side all-round but they've only climbed back up the table because of Harry Kane. Again, an injury to him will mean they'll fall away as well because their other options up top just aren't good enough.

 

You also look at the teams behind them - West Ham, Liverpool and Swansea and you don't see too much threat. West Ham and Swansea are good sides but they lack the quality to make an assault on the Top 4. Liverpool could potentially make the ground up if they can find goals from their strikers (especially with Sturridge coming back from injury), but at the moment they're not a threat to the Top 4.

 

Either way it's going to be an interesting end to the season and I am so proud and happy with the efforts from the lads so far that however we do in the last 18 games this will be a season that lives long in my memory, and the memories of all Saints fans!

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If we do qualify, there's a few permutations I'm not sure on - can anyone help? If we finish 3rd, we don't have a CL qualifier but if we're 4th, we'd have to do a qualifying round, right? And with our coefficient not being very high or whatever, wouldn't we be one of the unseeded teams, meaning we'd prob be drawn against possibly very tough opposition?

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If we do qualify, there's a few permutations I'm not sure on - can anyone help? If we finish 3rd, we don't have a CL qualifier but if we're 4th, we'd have to do a qualifying round, right? And with our coefficient not being very high or whatever, wouldn't we be one of the unseeded teams, meaning we'd prob be drawn against possibly very tough opposition?

 

I think that's true. The other unknown is the winner of the FA Cup. If Arsenal, say, win it and finish outside the top 4 or 5 then don't they get a Europa Cup place?

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If we do qualify, there's a few permutations I'm not sure on - can anyone help? If we finish 3rd, we don't have a CL qualifier but if we're 4th, we'd have to do a qualifying round, right? And with our coefficient not being very high or whatever, wouldn't we be one of the unseeded teams, meaning we'd prob be drawn against possibly very tough opposition?

 

Lets be honest, with our squad we won't qualify 2 years in a row, so I'd rather play against the best we can :)

 

how often do you think we could expect to get Bayern or Real Madrid at saints in a competitive fixture. Would be amazing!

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We will probably need to win on the last day of the season to get champions league and Man City will have to win to stand any chance of winning the league, if it goes to the last game I'll be gutted!!

 

haha, ideal scenario would be them to need a point to win the league and us a point to qualify for CL.. and keep United out of it. One big party in Manchester!

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Just wondering. If we finish 4th (An amazing achievement in itself) and say Spurs win the Europa league, do they get a Champions league place instead of 4th place? Bit like Liverpool when Everton finished 4th? Thought the winners of the Europa League get a champions league place as a prize...

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Just wondering. If we finish 4th (An amazing achievement in itself) and say Spurs win the Europa league, do they get a Champions league place instead of 4th place? Bit like Liverpool when Everton finished 4th? Thought the winners of the Europa League get a champions league place as a prize...

 

Or Arsenal win this year's Champions League and finish outside the top 4?

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4th placed in the PL plays a qualifying round, two legs against fairly strong opposition based on uefa coefficient. We would likely be unseeded ( definitely tbh)

 

Last year these were the qualifiers

Seeded

England Arsenal

Portugal Porto

Russia Zenit Saint Petersburg[†]

Germany Bayer Leverkusen

Italy Napoli

 

Unseeded

Spain Athletic Bilbao

France Lille[†]

Denmark Copenhagen[†]

Belgium Standard Liège[†]

Turkey Beşiktaş[†]

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If we finish lower than 7th then that would be quite a disappointment from this position at the moment.

 

Especially as really the toughest fixtures we have left are away to Chelsea and Man City pretty much the next highest we face is home games against 6th place Spurs and 8th place Liverpool, with the other 13 games being against teams 9th or below at the moment.

 

10 wins from those remaining 17 games we'd have 69 points. We could easily grab wins from all of our home games as well I reckon.

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If we finish lower than 7th then that would be quite a disappointment from this position at the moment.

 

Especially as really the toughest fixtures we have left are away to Chelsea and Man City pretty much the next highest we face is home games against 6th place Spurs and 8th place Liverpool, with the other 13 games being against teams 9th or below at the moment.

 

10 wins from those remaining 17 games we'd have 69 points. We could easily grab wins from all of our home games as well I reckon.

 

It would take a catastrophic downturn in form from now on for us to finish outside the top 6. Under Koeman? I don't see it. We're top 6 guaranteed - as I've believed for a while now - and in an incredibly strong position for top 4.

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I can remember the turning point in our champ season came after the 1-0 at Leeds (a.k.a the siege of Elland Road). That was the moment I really began to think we could get out of that league.

 

Whilst I don't feel we are quite at the same stage yet (too far to go yet and talking about champs league does seem bonkers) the players must surely have received a massive injection of confidence after the last 3 games and can see that they really can take on the 'big boys'.

 

However I am starting to feel a 'now or never' moment is arriving. We are clear in 3rd after 22 games, we won't get relegated and the worst we'll be now is mid table, we have the best defensive record in the league and the only team that has really turned us over (1st game aside) has been City.

 

We need to throw everything at this as we may never get the chance again. This season may be a one off.

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I can remember the turning point in our champ season came after the 1-0 at Leeds (a.k.a the siege of Elland Road). That was the moment I really began to think we could get out of that league.

 

Whilst I don't feel we are quite at the same stage yet (too far to go yet and talking about champs league does seem bonkers) the players must surely have received a massive injection of confidence after the last 3 games and can see that they really can take on the 'big boys'.

 

However I am starting to feel a 'now or never' moment is arriving. We are clear in 3rd after 22 games, we won't get relegated and the worst we'll be now is mid table, we have the best defensive record in the league and the only team that has really turned us over (1st game aside) has been City.

 

We need to throw everything at this as we may never get the chance again. This season may be a one off.

 

At overhauling the 10 points difference between us and Chelsea? Agreed ;)

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It would take a catastrophic downturn in form from now on for us to finish outside the top 6. Under Koeman? I don't see it. We're top 6 guaranteed - as I've believed for a while now - and in an incredibly strong position for top 4.

 

I still think how gutting it'd be if we just get pipped on the last day and even more so if its by Spurs and/or Liverpool.

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I was a massive naysayer in the idea we could make top four. I'm still probably 50:50 that we will, but unlike before i actually believe we have a chance now and it's probably our best chance ever.

 

In fact despite the fact i'm going to Ipswich away (and despite how ****ed i was about how we performed in the cups last season) i'd actually be happy to see the cups take a back seat and for us to go for it.

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Also they have changed the guidelines so the winner of the europa league gets that country and additional place

 

• Performances in domestic leagues will be rewarded. If a national cup winner has booked a UEFA Champions League spot, the highest-ranked club in their domestic league not already qualified for the UEFA Europa League will qualify for the competition; national cup runners-up no longer qualify.

 

• The maximum number of clubs from one association that can qualify for the UEFA Champions League is increased to five.

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I was a massive naysayer in the idea we could make top four. I'm still probably 50:50 that we will, but unlike before i actually believe we have a chance now and it's probably our best chance ever.

 

In fact despite the fact i'm going to Ipswich away (and despite how ****ed i was about how we performed in the cups last season) i'd actually be happy to see the cups take a back seat and for us to go for it.

Agreed. Pelle must need a break. And our situation isn't comparable to last year's.
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At the start of the season, if you'd said we'd finish 7th or 8th, I'd have bitten your hand off. Now, with over half the season gone, 7th or 8th would be a huge anticlimax and a disappointment.

 

A lot can happen in just 5 months...

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We've now cancelled out the points we dropped to Man Utd and Arsenal just a few weeks ago. All we need to do is match what the teams below us do and it's ours, and we still have the chance to get back the six points dropped to Liverpool and Spurs. It's in our hands.

 

My question now is, would you rather we qualify for the Europa and do well in it (i.e. at least get out the group stage) or the Champions League and perform poorly? I'm in no way suggesting it's impossible for us to do well in the CL, but I do think with a stretched squad and the higher quality of opposition we might struggle to make a decent impression, whereas I think genuinely think we could go places in the Europa. Still, hard to say no to a CL place, isn't it?! COYR.

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We've now cancelled out the points we dropped to Man Utd and Arsenal just a few weeks ago. All we need to do is match what the teams below us do and it's ours, and we still have the chance to get back the six points dropped to Liverpool and Spurs. It's in our hands.

 

My question now is, would you rather we qualify for the Europa and do well in it (i.e. at least get out the group stage) or the Champions League and perform poorly? I'm in no way suggesting it's impossible for us to do well in the CL, but I do think with a stretched squad and the higher quality of opposition we might struggle to make a decent impression, whereas I think genuinely think we could go places in the Europa. Still, hard to say no to a CL place, isn't it?! COYR.

 

Failing in the Champions League would still get you into the Europa anyway so it's an irrelevant question. Additionally there's the money incentive and a better chance of keeping our talent.

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We've now cancelled out the points we dropped to Man Utd and Arsenal just a few weeks ago. All we need to do is match what the teams below us do and it's ours, and we still have the chance to get back the six points dropped to Liverpool and Spurs. It's in our hands.

 

My question now is, would you rather we qualify for the Europa and do well in it (i.e. at least get out the group stage) or the Champions League and perform poorly? I'm in no way suggesting it's impossible for us to do well in the CL, but I do think with a stretched squad and the higher quality of opposition we might struggle to make a decent impression, whereas I think genuinely think we could go places in the Europa. Still, hard to say no to a CL place, isn't it?! COYR.

 

Champions league all day long

More money

Better sides

Greater exposure

Higher status

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Do we now, 21 games in, 3rd in the league, start to realistically think about European Football.

 

Be it Champions League or Europa League.

 

I'd personally feel a bit (lot) disappointed if we didn't make either from here.

 

Just imagine hearing the Chsmpons League music at St Mary's!

 

You can think whatever you want, won't change how things turn out one bit. Just have fun along the journey.

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18 games (plus FA Cup) is still a long way to go. We have to keep our key players fit and buy another striker to get there. I'm doing my best to not get my hopes up. It's difficult.

 

We could really do with Kane and Sanchez to lose form/get injured. Also for both their clubs to stay in Europe as long as possible but without Arsenal winning it.

 

I'll let myself get excited if we're still 3rd in April. (I said the same about January)

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Just wondering. If we finish 4th (An amazing achievement in itself) and say Spurs win the Europa league, do they get a Champions league place instead of 4th place? Bit like Liverpool when Everton finished 4th? Thought the winners of the Europa League get a champions league place as a prize...

 

No, both teams get a place so we would have 5 teams in at the expense of another country.

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No, both teams get a place so we would have 5 teams in at the expense of another country.

 

I put this elsewhere but fits perfectly here -

 

What happens if Chelsea or Man City win the CL? Does the Premier League get an extra place so it would be down to fifth to get a champs league place?

 

Can't imagine if we have two prem teams winning the Euro trophies we could have 6 teams in the Champs league... :?

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But if you finish 4th and get knocked out of the CL preliminary round, isn't that 'game over'?

 

I never thought I'd have cause to give a f*ck bout what happens to CL 3rd Qualifying Round Losers, but turns out they enter the Europa League via playoff round or something

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If an English team won the Champion's League but didn't qualify for next season via the league, the 4th placed team in the league miss out - as Spurs discovered when Chelsea won. Everton and Liverpool getting in was a one-off concession as Uefa hadn't considered this scenario previously.

 

One of the journalists on Football Weekly confirmed that winning the Europa League gets you in the Champions League next season in addition to your domestic league's allowance.

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18 games (plus FA Cup) is still a long way to go. We have to keep our key players fit and buy another striker to get there. I'm doing my best to not get my hopes up. It's difficult.

 

We could really do with Kane and Sanchez to lose form/get injured. Also for both their clubs to stay in Europe as long as possible but without Arsenal winning it.

 

I'll let myself get excited if we're still 3rd in April. (I said the same about January)

 

I think the Europa league will continue to hamper Spurs, their results after the Europa games were consistency poor. The advantage for us over Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs etc is the lack of European football - apart from the FA Cup, it's just straight league games. Our focus is going to be pretty solid I'd have thought.

 

The only other team without European competition to worry about are Utd, which is why they'll finish 3rd I think. Some way off the run away top 2, but 4th is the place up for grabs.

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Fourth place have to qualify for the group stages. First and second in each group go through to the knockout rounds and third drop into the Europa League knockouts.

 

Debutants in the Champions League will get difficult opponents in their group because they have no seeding - as Man City have found over the last few seasons.

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Fourth place have to qualify for the group stages. First and second in each group go through to the knockout rounds and third drop into the Europa League knockouts.

 

Debutants in the Champions League will get difficult opponents in their group because they have no seeding - as Man City have found over the last few seasons.

 

If we did finish 4th, our qualifier would be against an equal finishing team from another top division. So as it stands at the mo, we'd potentially face the likes of Napoli, Sevilla, dynamo from russia (possibly).

 

And if we got through that, we'd be the lowest ranked team in whatever group we'd be drawn in. A good experience that it will be, it will be very hard to go too far! But seeing the likes of Bayern, Barca, Juve at St Mary's in competitive games, whatever the outcome, would be nothing short of epic.

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If we did finish 4th, our qualifier would be against an equal finishing team from another top division. So as it stands at the mo, we'd potentially face the likes of Napoli, Sevilla, dynamo from russia (possibly).

 

And if we got through that, we'd be the lowest ranked team in whatever group we'd be drawn in. A good experience that it will be, it will be very hard to go too far! But seeing the likes of Bayern, Barca, Juve at St Mary's in competitive games, whatever the outcome, would be nothing short of epic.

 

Saying out loud seems ridiculous. :spaz:

 

I still can't believe we could be anywhere near 4th in the league come the end of the season as it doesn't compute in the brain and there are loads of games to go, if we're still top 4 come the end of March then belief will start to creep in. :o

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Champions League money breakdown here: http://www.danielgeey.com/uefa-champions-league-broadcasting-rights-revenues-explained/

 

Breakdown-of-Champions-League-Performance-Prize-Money.jpg

 

The second part of the revenue distribution is the important part for the new BT deal. In addition to the above fixed performance amounts, the clubs who qualify for the Champions League receive a proportion of the TV money paid by the national broadcaster. Therefore the size of the revenue pool is linked to the value of the country’s TV market. The revenue pool distribution is split between where a club finished in its previous season and how successful it is in the current competition. The Premier League champions receive 40% of the TV revenue pool, second place receives 30%, third place 20% and fourth place 10%. Where a team finished in its domestic league is important for its UEFA revenues. With the increased BT deal from 2015-16 season, clubs qualifying for Champions League competition will share in the increase of the TV pool money. It is not inconceivable that UEFA’s distribution could reach over £60m if the 2014-15 Premier League champions then win the Champions League competition in the following season and the other Premier League clubs (who qualified for the Champions League) fail to make the later rounds (which gives a club a larger share of the TV pool monies). In any event, Premier League clubs participating in the Champions League will reap the rewards of a larger TV revenue pool. As such, qualification for the 2015-16 Champions League competition with the huge TV pool uplift will have a large revenue impact and will be of significance to qualifying Premier League clubs. The 2013-14 market pool figures for English clubs were as follows:

 

 

 

Club

 

Market Pool Amount (€)

 

12-13 Position in the Premier League

 

% of Market Pool

 

 

 

Manchester United

 

23,775,000

 

1

 

40

 

 

 

Manchester City

 

18,302,000

 

2

 

30

 

 

 

Chelsea

 

18,491,000

 

3

 

20

 

 

 

Arsenal

 

11,132,000

 

4

 

10

 

 

 

Total Market Pool

 

71,700,000[1]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1] Note that the % revenues for the market pool will not be exact as some clubs went further in the competition. i.e.. Chelsea would have been entitled to £14.34m from the market pool (20% of £71m) but because they went further than any other English team, they benefitted from an extra share of the market pool revenue.

 

Manchester United chief executive Edward Woodward claimed non-qualification would cost United in the region of £35m. That would appear be a conservative estimate based on additional match day revenues and prize money. From looking at last year’s distributions, the second placed finisher in the Premier League received 30% of monies from the TV pool. For example, should Liverpool qualify from the Champions League group stage, it is likely to be worth around €37m in total UEFA distributions[2]. That does not include match day and additional commercial revenues.

 

[1] Note that the percentage revenues for the market pool will not be exact as some clubs went further in the competition. i.e.. Chelsea would have been entitled to £14.34m from the market pool (20% of £71m) but because they went further than any other English team, they benefitted from an extra share of the market pool revenue.

 

[2] Calculation: Performance Prize Money €8.6m+ €3.5m (assumption of 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses) + €3.5 (for last 16) + €21.6 (30% of €72m TV pool which may vary depending on how the other clubs progress) = €37.2m

Breakdown-of-Champions-League-Performance-Prize-Money.jpg

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It would take a catastrophic downturn in form from now on for us to finish outside the top 6. Under Koeman? I don't see it. We're top 6 guaranteed - as I've believed for a while now - and in an incredibly strong position for top 4.

 

Not really. There are still 17 games to go, that's a share of 51 points for us and for the teams below us. Lots of the teams below us are within reach without catastrophic results.

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Not really. There are still 17 games to go, that's a share of 51 points for us and for the teams below us. Lots of the teams below us are within reach without catastrophic results.

 

Yeah, let's not go nuts. The team in 7th is 6 points behind. We're more than that from 2nd.

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Just wondering. If we finish 4th (An amazing achievement in itself) and say Spurs win the Europa league, do they get a Champions league place instead of 4th place? Bit like Liverpool when Everton finished 4th? Thought the winners of the Europa League get a champions league place as a prize...

 

Or Arsenal win this year's Champions League and finish outside the top 4?

 

If an English team won the Champion's League but didn't qualify for next season via the league, the 4th placed team in the league miss out - as Spurs discovered when Chelsea won. Everton and Liverpool getting in was a one-off concession as Uefa hadn't considered this scenario previously.

 

One of the journalists on Football Weekly confirmed that winning the Europa League gets you in the Champions League next season in addition to your domestic league's allowance.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2778224/Boost-Tottenham-Everton-UEFA-confirm-FIVE-Premier-League-clubs-feature-Champions-League.html

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I still think Europa League is the realistic shot and that Champions League is going to be too much of a stretch.

 

We've adapted well to injuries so far, but I still think, sadly, that two of Man Utd, Arsenal, Spurs (and possibly, just possibly, even Liverpool) will end up above us.

 

So, if you're a (mild) pessimist like me and want to chew over how we make it into the Europa League, these are the outcomes you want to maximise our chances:

 

1. Chelsea to win the Capital One Cup. Alternatively, if Liverpool or Spurs win it, we'd like them to finish in the top 6. That would keep open the chance of Saints only needing to finish 7th to secure European football. We don't want a Sheff Utd win, even if most "neutrals" do.

2. If we don't win the FA Cup ourselves (or end up as runners-up to a top 6 team), we want the final to be between two top six sides. If the final is, say, Stoke v Everton or even Chelsea v Ipswich, this means a Europa League slot going to a team outside of the top six and so seventh in the PL won't secure a Europa League place.

3. Subject to the rider* below, we want an English club to win the Champions League but to finish outside of the top 4. Arsenal are the only credible candidates for this, unless you think Chelsea or Man City might win the CL but collapse so badly in the league that they finish out of the top four.

 

(* I assume that if 5 English teams qualify for the Champions League, that we still get 3 Europa League slots rather than this being cut back to just two?)

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