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Last Season's Top 8 11 Games In - Very very crude Projection for this season Top 4

Saxon

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Saxon

Saxon

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Last season, the minimum number of points any of the top 8 teams had at this stage last season (11 games) was 19 points (City). The teams that finished in the top 8 last season all had 19 or more points at this stage (19, 20, 20, 20, 21, 22, 23, 25) Arsenal, the then first placed club after 11 games, was on 25 points (same as us now). This season is obviously a lot poorer than that 4th place to 8th (16, 16, 17, 18, 18, 21, 25, 29).

 

Basically what I'm saying is that it will be interesting to see how much they will be able to make up this sort of ground. Last season was especially competitive in terms of the top 8 teams. This season they are all a lot less competitive so far bar Chelsea who are more (and us and arguably City by points gained by this stage). There was only a 6 point gap between the leaders and 8th at this stage. That ended up being 30 points by the end of the season (86 City, 56 us). This season there is already a 13 point gap between the leaders and 8th. It will be interesting to see how this pans out over the season. I suppose clearly the rocky form has happened to these clubs at the beginning of the season rather than later, so you would expect them all to pick it up, but, surely there is more pressure on them already with the gap as it is?

 

As a crude analysis, if we add the points each team gained in their remaining 27 games last season, to the total this season (to simulate a "typical" season (in our case what the pundits predict - our comeuppance)), the final 8 would look as follows: (top 8 from last season that is, not current top 8 this season)

 

1. Chelsea - 90 (29 + 61)

2. Man City - 88 (21 + 67)

3. Liverpool - 75 (14 + 61)

4. Arsenal - 71 (17 + 54)

5. Everton - 66 (14 + 52)

6. Spuds - 63 (14 + 49)

7. Man Utd - 60 (16 + 44)

8. Saints - 59 (25 + 34)

 

What is interesting is that based on this very very very crude projection, we are only 12 points off 71, the same Arsenal would be projected for fourth place. If we look at 12 points coming from four games we should have won last season that we didn't: Arsenal home, Tottenham home, and away, Villa home, Cardiff home. I would argue this season these are games we would have been better equipped to see-out or finish. Plus there were many many points dropped to irritating draws last season (sunderland, stoke, west ham, villa etc).

 

Basically, with a huge bucket of salt and bearing in mind how crude this projection is (I know its a load of b.s. really), I think we are on course for a top four finish. I'm not saying that the teams will finish in this particular order by name, but if you were to remove the names and just say the top 8 teams should have between them, runs similar to that of last season, if they do that for the rest of the season (i.e. improving, not continuing as they are), then we need to get get 13 more points over the next 27 games than we did last season, to get top 4. Which, I would argue is do-able. So far we have gotten 25 from 11 games = 2.27 points a game. Based on this crude prediction we need 47 from 27 = 1.74 (basically between what Utd and Spuds managed all of last season). Plus, who says all those teams will improve to that extent, and bearing in mind the top 8 last season was more competitive than ever. Last season we dropped from 1.9 points a game to 1.25 = 0.65 point drop. We can drop by 0.54 points a game this season, which is a smaller margin, but I would imagine we won't do as badly in the remaining 27 games as we did last season.

 

Anyway, I hope this kind of makes sense what I'm getting at? Its just something I did to work something out in my head.

 

tl:dr All this is supposed to crudely support is that I reckon, regardless of whether the other teams revert to how they did in the last 27 games of last season, we just need to improve slightly on last season's 27 games to get into the top four, based on the poor starts of this season's "big clubs".

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Saxon

Saxon

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Also, if we set 72 as the top 4 points haul minimum for this season (crude again).

 

We need 1.74 points a game for the remaining 27 games. We managed 1.25 last season, so hopefully we can improve on that!

 

The other "big clubs" need:

Chelsea - 1.59 (managed 2.26 in last 27 last season)

Man City - 1.88 (2.48)

Arsenal - 2.04 (2.00)

Man Utd - 2.07 (1.62)

Everton - 2.15 (1.93)

Liverpool - 2.15 (2.26 - with Suarez)

Spuds - 2.15 (1.84)

 

So hopefully achievable.

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Wiggles31

Wiggles31

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I see we won 15 games last season and this season we've already won 8 so barring a huge U-turn in form we are well on course to better last years points tally.

 

At a guess (having looked at last years table) 22 wins and 5-6 draws (71-72 points) may get the 4th spot based on the form of teams this year.

 

So out of 27 games left (12 against last years top 7, 7 of which are at home) we would need another 14 wins and a few draws. Kind of shows what a huge ask it is. Who knows though?

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Wiggles31

Wiggles31

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We also have 4 more wins than Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool (who I see as our main contenders for 4th forgetting City).

 

So based on my predictions they all need to win 18 in 27 games left which is league winning form. So any draws or wins against them will be huge.

 

The City, Arsenal and Utd run in is absolutely massive for us.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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As a crude analysis, if we add the points each team gained in their remaining 27 games last season, to the total this season (to simulate a "typical" season (in our case what the pundits predict - our comeuppance)),

 

Nice little bit of analysis ruined by this line.

 

There aren't any pundits predicting our "comeuppance" and there certainly aren't any that have said we deserve a comeuppance because we haven't done anything wrong and, again, no pundits have said we have.

 

A real unnecessary recurring theme on this forum that "the media" want us to fail, when there is no evidence of that whatsoever. Not sure why people can't accept that the coverage of us has been very positive.

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Professor

Professor

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The nine games following the International Break in November 2013 were about as 'massive' as this year as the included Chelsea (twice), Arsenal, Man City, Tottenham and away to Everton. Of those 9 games last year we won ONE - drew two and lost SIX (5 points out of a possible 18). That looks very much like a record that can be improved upon this year, and we go into that period with 3 more points than we had last year. If we only get 12 points out of these 9 games this year, which could be W3; D3; L3 we would still be far better off than we were in January last season.

The poor run last year came when Artur Boruk suffered a broken hand and was out for 6 weeks. As long as we don't have Gazzaniga in goal in December, I feel we'll be OK and that a top 4 finish is there for the taking. Not easily, because this is a hard League, but do-able.

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Saxon

Saxon

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Nice little bit of analysis ruined by this line.

 

There aren't any pundits predicting our "comeuppance" and there certainly aren't any that have said we deserve a comeuppance because we haven't done anything wrong and, again, no pundits have said we have.

 

A real unnecessary recurring theme on this forum that "the media" want us to fail, when there is no evidence of that whatsoever. Not sure why people can't accept that the coverage of us has been very positive.

 

Firstly its tongue in cheek, I'm just making a reference to our tough run.

 

Secondly, you clearly haven't watched match of the day once this season. So watch a few eps and come back to me.

 

Thirdly, jog-on sunshine :p (but thanks for the positive comment).

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sandwichsaint

sandwichsaint

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I hope people are factoring in to all of this that for the last two seasons we have barely kicked a ball in anger for the last 10-12 games of both seasons.

 

Safe, secure, complacent, no cup football, no real competition for places.

 

If you factor in the RK factor (he appears to want to go out to win every game we play), the mentality in this group, the improved squad depth/options, and that hopefully we will still be playing for 'big' stakes, I would expect us to pick up considerably more points in the last 12 games of this season than we have done for the previous two seasons.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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Firstly its tongue in cheek, I'm just making a reference to our tough run.

 

Secondly, you clearly haven't watched match of the day once this season. So watch a few eps and come back to me.

 

Thirdly, jog-on sunshine :p (but thanks for the positive comment).

I've watched MOTD every week, most weeks the Saints bit twice and read, open mouthed, the paranoid comments on here straight after.

 

"They can't wait for us to fail!!" Err, what? MOTD are loving us.

 

Anyway, right back atcha.

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View From The Top

View From The Top

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Firstly its tongue in cheek, I'm just making a reference to our tough run.

 

Secondly, you clearly haven't watched match of the day once this season. So watch a few eps and come back to me.

 

Thirdly, jog-on sunshine :p (but thanks for the positive comment).

 

WTF? Pundits are full of praise for what we have done but are also cautious regarding upcoming fixtures.

 

Nothing more.

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hypochondriac

hypochondriac

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Firstly its tongue in cheek, I'm just making a reference to our tough run.

 

Secondly, you clearly haven't watched match of the day once this season. So watch a few eps and come back to me.

 

Thirdly, jog-on sunshine :p (but thanks for the positive comment).

 

Are you referring to shearer on motd2? Was very positive tbh.

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Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

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One more goal in their remaining 27 games?! Yeah, much as I'd like to point to this showing us coming second (unashamed, I'd effing love us to come second) I'm struggling to give this much credence.

 

 

 

 

 

especially when you look at our goals against column, 11 in total for the season, that is one stingy defence really.

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SaintTex

SaintTex

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From this point last season (3rd with 22 points) to January 1st we only picked up 5 points (27 points).

 

If we can better that I'll be happy. I'll start worrying about end-of-season predictions come March time.

Yep, people tend to forget we were flying pretty high in 3rd place with 22 points last year after 11 matches and then we fell off the cliff.

 

last year, after 19 matches.. we found ourselves in 9th place. For the next 19 matches, there was very little table movement, we were either in 8th or 9th place for the rest of the year.

 

the next 8 matches (to the halfway point) are critical and will tell us a lot about where we may be at season's end.

 

I personally think we can get to 38 or 40 points by January 1. Most critical to that.. getting all 9 points against Villa, Burnley, and Palace. If we start dropping points in those matches, our outlook will be cloudy.

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saintbob40

saintbob40

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Very complicated.

 

My simpler back of a fag packet calc....

 

Average for 5th place over last 6/7 years 64 points, so say target of 65 points for 4th.

 

27 Games left we need 40 points.......which we could get with say 11 wins, 7 draws, 9 defeats.

 

Highly doable especially so given Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Everton ,Liverpool all being crap at the same time. Probably never happened to such a degree before suggesting 65 points is on the high side and our task therefore may be simpler.

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Saint_clark

Saint_clark

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Last season we faced another naughty November/December period with a lot of injuries. I'm hoping Steven Davis' minor injury really is just that and not a sign that the players are starting to give in after what was a rather intense start to the season.

 

To be fair his injury was a result of a challenge intended to injure. Few of those from Leicester, particularly one on Tadic where the defender won the ball fair and square but his trailing leg was high in the air and caught Tadic full on in the back of the knee.

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CityRanger

CityRanger

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A note of caution.

Had 10 minutes spare yesterday and compared results for corresponding fixtures. I.e Stoke at home Hull away etc.

If you take away the 2 wins against newly promoted sides(QPR and Leicester) we have 19 points from the 9 games compared to 17 points from the same fixtures last season. We are 2 points better off. Its better, but not as good as some are making out.

Regarding the 6 points I have dismissed against promoted teams I have categorised them with relegated sides who we won 4 of the 6 games against last season.

However I believe our squad i better and some 'big guns' are struggling a bit.

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the_emu

the_emu

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A note of caution.

Had 10 minutes spare yesterday and compared results for corresponding fixtures. I.e Stoke at home Hull away etc.

If you take away the 2 wins against newly promoted sides(QPR and Leicester) we have 19 points from the 9 games compared to 17 points from the same fixtures last season. We are 2 points better off. Its better, but not as good as some are making out.

Regarding the 6 points I have dismissed against promoted teams I have categorised them with relegated sides who we won 4 of the 6 games against last season.

However I believe our squad i better and some 'big guns' are struggling a bit.

 

There is no value in comparing like for like against last year because, unless we are playing the same team players, at the same fixture within with the same 38 fixture list, with the same players, well....put simply it isn't like for like.

 

As for dismissing 6 points, what's all that about? They are 6 points that should be cherished, just ask the two Manchester giants if they would like to take 3 points against QPR and Leicester right now?

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Saxon

Saxon

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WTF? Pundits are full of praise for what we have done but are also cautious regarding upcoming fixtures.

 

Nothing more.

 

I've watched MOTD every week, most weeks the Saints bit twice and read, open mouthed, the paranoid comments on here straight after.

 

"They can't wait for us to fail!!" Err, what? MOTD are loving us.

 

Anyway, right back atcha.

 

Right, you've both lumped in my tiny comment about pundits saying we have a tough run coming up (they have said that, and we do). With the crazy ramblings going on elsewhere that there's a media conspiracy or that there's a large body of the media hoping we fail.

 

I never said anyone wants us to fail. I just said (and its really tiresome that out of my whole post, this little aside is what you focused on) that previously in the season, maybe not last weekend, maybe a week or so ago, whatever, pundits/media, whatever, had said,they're not sure we would be able to maintain this run, given our Christmas fixtures.

 

Now, please tell me how that is a) an unreasonable observation of what they have said, b) how its got anything to do with anyone wanting us to fail - predicting a slump is not the same as hoping we have one. Or is that a hard concept to grasp.

 

I also never said we weren't getting praise. Never mentioned anything like that. I have found it very refreshing to have such support for our club recently, and I bet there are loads of people, in the media included, who are enjoying the freshening up of the race for the top four this season.

 

So in summary. My comment was a little aside referencing predictions we wouldn't be able to keep the run going based on last season's performances with a set of fixtures similar to what we have coming up now.

 

Nothing more.

 

Now jog on.

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The9

The9

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I'm getting vaguely perturbed by the terrible analysis on here. They either fall into one of two categories, nicely illustrated here already:

 

1) We will do much worse, based on calculations matching up results from last season when we were not as good, thereby introducing a level of failure that the current side has not been shown to have, and extrapolating results from the last 2 months of the season where the players and manager who hadn't left yet were tangibly going through the motions anyway.

 

2) We're definitely going to come in the top 4, based on current results plus wildly optimistic predictions based on the false premise that all Prem opponents are equal or the not necessarily self-fulfilling prophesy that we're 2nd so we must be the 2nd best team in the division, generally insinuating things like playing Man City and Chelsea away is similar to playing West Ham or Swansea away (or worse, that it's like playing Hull).

 

Personally I think it's somewhere between the two, with the specifics of the "somewhere" being dependent on unknown factors such as injuries and recovery time, suspensions and who gets them, and the vagaries of form - which itself is only partially reflected in previous performances against opponents for a side which is at best 50% different to last season's, and all of this is jumbled up in a nice bundle in which a couple of millimetres in two strikes of the ball could be the difference between 3 points and none.

 

We have, after all, lost away to bottom half sides Spurs and Liverpool, as well as winning at top 5 sides Swansea and West Ham.

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doddisalegend

doddisalegend

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Here is another very crude projection of the final table from the Daily Star's "statistical experts" - i.e. the work experience kid with a C in Maths GCSE playing with a calculator...

 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/409946/Final-predicted-Premier-League-table

 

Load old crap really not going to turn out like that............... but I would ****ing love it if the table looked like that at the end of the season:lol:

 

164411.jpg

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