Stattos - How many matches if Saints fail to win before we go bottom three?

[Giordano]

I think i worked this out once a long time ago in a different season...

 

If i got this right in a 38 match season the maximum number of points IN TOTAL for ALL 20 teams is 1140 (38 matches for 20 teams and 3 points max in each game and that happens if every match ends in 3 points for one team and 0 points the other) whilst the minimum number of points that can occur at the end of the season would be if every game ended in a draw ~ so for all teams combined that is 38 matches for 20 teams * 1 point = 760.

 

SO,

 

Looking at the current table :

 

In a remaining rest of EPL fixtures of ALL 3 point matches the AVERAGE gain for teams is c 1.5 points per match. IF 25 points Saints just stopped winning and started losing every match in that situation it would take 3rd bottom Leicester currently on 9 points (25-9/c.1.5)= c. 8.4 matches to overtake Southampton.

 

In a remaining rest of the EPL fixtures of ALL 1 point matches BUT excepting Southampton lose all remaining matches it would take 3rd bottom Leicester currently on 9 points c. 14.5 matches to overtake Southampton (allowing for the premise that Saints need to get zero points so the games against saints for the other 19 teams are all 3 pointers not c 1.5 pointers).

 

Somewhere in-between which is more realistic says about 11-12 matches safety margin.

 

IF somebody knew the statistical average number of points gained per team in EPL history we could then see this more accurately.

 

As an aside i do believe we are four to five wins away from avoiding relegation- which might statistically be the earliest that Saints have ever avoided relegation in our premiership or division one season history.

[Jimmy_D]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

[Hatch]

last year it was during March that the third bottom team passed 25 points

[Beckenham Saint]

We won't go bottom three, didn't you hear the Northam on saturday? We are staying up, we are staying up!

[S-Clarke]

We won't go bottom three, didn't you hear the Northam on saturday? We are staying up, we are staying up!

 

Followed by ''We're gonna win the league''

 

Didn't think I'd ever hear those two sung together...!

[Beckenham Saint]

Followed by ''We're gonna win the league''

 

Didn't think I'd ever hear those two sung together...!

 

And now you're gonna believe us! ♫

[Dalek2003]

Yes, this is something that worries me.

 

We might get away with four wins to stay up, but 5 makes it most likely.

 

Until we get to 40 points I won't relax. BTW, this is much more like it, posts like this discussing keeping clear of the bottom three as opposed to finishing in the top 3.

[Lighthouse]

And now you're gonna believe us! ♫

 

I always thought it was, "and now you'd better believe us."

 

As for the OP I wouldn't put money on any of the bottom 3 getting to 25 points. I know they can't all finish with so few but Leicester and Burnley are both hopeless in front of goal and QPR's defence is hilarious.

[croydonsaint]

I enjoy looking at stats, and particularly at the moment as they seem to be pointing to our best position ever in this league [ie not old first division]

One that I like is I reckon 1.75 points per game for the remainder of the season is very likely to get us 4th place. As we are currently on 2.27 points per game that is quite a reverse in form. Liverpool and Spurs need to achieve 2.15 points per game for the rest of the season to get to the 72 points that should be around what is needed for 4th place. As they are currently on 1.27 points per game they have to get a lot better than we can get worse.

This is why I really do think we can end up above them both.

My prediction for the end of the season is 4th or 5th.

[CB Fry]

I enjoy looking at stats, and particularly at the moment as they seem to be pointing to our best position ever in this league [ie not old first division]

One that I like is I reckon 1.75 points per game for the remainder of the season is very likely to get us 4th place. As we are currently on 2.27 points per game that is quite a reverse in form. Liverpool and Spurs need to achieve 2.15 points per game for the rest of the season to get to the 72 points that should be around what is needed for 4th place. As they are currently on 1.27 points per game they have to get a lot better than we can get worse.

This is why I really do think we can end up above them both.

My prediction for the end of the season is 4th or 5th.

Agree with this. Already difficult to imagine both Spurs and Liverpool getting above us. One might but actually think it more likely that neither will. They are weeks and weeks away from catching us right now.

 

1.75 per game is still a tough ask even if it does represent a drop in form. But right now I don't see why we can't do it.

[The9]

63 and 64 points are more likely to come 4th than any other points tally - 65-68 for 3rd.

 

We have 25, so need about 39 more (13 wins) to have a decent shout of 4th. We have 11 matches left against sides in the bottom half (home and away) not including Spurs and Liverpool at home, plus Stoke away where we've already won, as well as the other 13 matches against fellow top half sides.ott

 

Basically if we can beat the bottom half home and away we should finish at least 4th.

[sadoldgit]

Some people still worried about relegation? WTF?

[hasper57saint]

What the hell are you smoking?

[KelvinsRightGlove]

Agree with this. Already difficult to imagine both Spurs and Liverpool getting above us. One might but actually think it more likely that neither will. They are weeks and weeks away from catching us right now.

 

1.75 per game is still a tough ask even if it does represent a drop in form. But right now I don't see why we can't do it.

 

Love the optimism, and for one that called a deluded clapper a lot in the summer- even I think it would be a stretch to finish above both.

 

Part of me thinks even finishing above one of Spurs/Liverpool seems unlikely, maybe I have been conditioned to think this way though.

 

I really, really would love it (Keegan style) if we did finish above them both. It would be amazing.

 

For the most part though, I'm just enjoying all this whilst it lasts

[Giordano]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

Thank you Jimmy.

 

Does anyone know what is the likeliest points gap compared to 3rd (or 2nd) bottom team to determine if this is a record breaking season yet for Saints in terms of earliest we have avoided relegation? Or if not when it could come?

 

I know its all very exciting looking at the league table and I am a dreamer and have seen Saints win the CL and World Club Cup in my dreams like probably many others - I even remember being at the Dell being very upset after a 0-0 home draw to soon to be relegated Birmingham in our third last match that put the dampener on our chances of winning the league ~ and which now seems an eternity ago (1983-84~ 30 years actually). And yeah, i was at THAT semi final v Everton too....At that point I had no idea that would be the closest we ever came to winning a league and Cup double but who knows now.....but forget thast how many points before we are safe - must be 34-35 in this duff league and so i hope we have got that by xmas....he says with everything crossed :-) .

[TopGun]

Thank you Jimmy.

 

Does anyone know what is the likeliest points gap compared to 3rd (or 2nd) bottom team to determine if this is a record breaking season yet for Saints in terms of earliest we have avoided relegation? Or if not when it could come?

 

I know its all very exciting looking at the league table and I am a dreamer and have seen Saints win the CL and World Club Cup in my dreams like probably many others - I even remember being at the Dell being very upset after a 0-0 home draw to soon to be relegated Birmingham in our third last match that put the dampener on our chances of winning the league ~ and which now seems an eternity ago (1983-84~ 30 years actually). And yeah, i was at THAT semi final v Everton too....At that point I had no idea that would be the closest we ever came to winning a league and Cup double but who knows now.....but forget thast how many points before we are safe - must be 34-35 in this duff league and so i hope we have got that by xmas....he says with everything crossed :-) .

 

Losing at home to both Notts County (who were releagted) and Notts Forest are my lowlights of 83/84. If we had beaten both of them we would have won the League.