How many points do we need for the top 4?

[Leicestersaint]

I haven't changed my view - I expect we'll finish second.

[Ohio Saint]

Lets see how we are after xmas shall we ?!

 

We have played two of last years top 6 and lost to them both so far

 

Apart from beating Arsenal away in the LC.

[lickierambert]

It is starting to get scary now.

 

We keep winning over and over, while having one of the tightest defences in Europe.

 

Meanwhile, more and more results elsewhere keep going our way.

 

It's starting to feel like the back to back promotion seasons, especially the Championship one where no-one was giving us a chance at the start.

 

This, oh god this.

 

People talk about our upcoming games against the big guns, but last year in the remaining 12 corresponding fixtures from last year we got 7 points. It's difficult to see us doing worse this time round. Those games will be the make or break I think

[croydonsaint]

To answer original question 4th position will need probably around 72 points to be sure. That is points per game of 1.89. We are currently performing at 2.27 ppg.

If we can achieve 7 points every 4 games we are unlikely to be lower than 4th

The way I am seeing it, we stand a decent chance of being above LIverpool and Spurs. Think 4th place will be between us and Man U. Think we will be 5th for what it's worth.

And that would be incredible.

[alpine_saint]

After today's games

Chelsea +11

Man C +3

West Ham 0

Arsenal -4

Saints -2

Swansea 0

Liverpool -4

Spurs -7

Everton -7

Newcastle -5

Man U -8

 

 

(Just to clarify For CB as he seems to be only one who struggles...I am not predicting we will win all of these games, and lose all of ones against top 7, its a model of one way a steady 4th place may happen)

 

I guess our -2 is due to the West Brom draw ?

[Lighthouse]

Lets see how we are after xmas shall we ?!

 

We have played two of last years top 6 and lost to them both so far

 

If results carry on like this it wont matter. If we're doing the business against everyone outside the top 6, whilst Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool are throwing points away we can stay ahead of them.

 

West Ham and Stoke beat City

Swansea beat Arsenal

Leicester beat Man Utd

Everyone beat Liverpool

 

No reason we can't do likewise. The only team I look at and think we can't beat is Chelsea.

[CB Fry]

After today's games

Chelsea +11

Man C +3

West Ham 0

Arsenal -4

Saints -2

Swansea 0

Liverpool -4

Spurs -7

Everton -7

Newcastle -5

Man U -8

 

 

(Just to clarify For CB as he seems to be only one who struggles...I am not predicting we will win all of these games, and lose all of ones against top 7, its a model of one way a steady 4th place may happen)

Look, you predicted match by match on a prediction thread that we would lose all five games against the "big five" (including Everton) in November and December.

 

You've changed your mind now, that's fine.

 

Probably worth a bit of humility rather than pretending you didn't predict that, when you clearly did.

[tajjuk]

If we are still in the top 4/5 come January then you have to think us serious contenders.

 

Also like Arsenal we don't really need to do a huge amount against the top teams (though on current form we could easily take points from anyone bar Chelsea)

 

I also don't think it will be a race to fourth it's quite possibly race to second, because I can see Chelsea getting 95-97 points and winning the league in early April, everyone else even City plays out for the scraps. An injury to Aguero and they are screwed.

 

Anyway, it's not likely but top 6 probably is, but if there was ever a season for one of the non regulars to finish in a champions league spot it's this season.

[Batman]

talksport press pass just dismissed out of hand any chances of saints finishing top 4...as we have not played anyone 'decent' yet?

 

 

this was in response to darren lewis saying we have an excellent chance and believes we have the money to buy another good player if required in january

[Smirking_Saint]

Apart from beating Arsenal away in the LC.

 

Which isnt in the league and they played a weakened team

[Jimmy_D]

talksport press pass just dismissed out of hand any chances of saints finishing top 4...as we have not played anyone 'decent' yet?

 

 

this was in response to darren lewis saying we have an excellent chance and believes we have the money to buy another good player if required in january

 

Would that be the same 'no one decent' that everyone else keeps dropping points against?

[Wiggles31]

talksport press pass just dismissed out of hand any chances of saints finishing top 4...as we have not played anyone 'decent' yet?

 

 

this was in response to darren lewis saying we have an excellent chance and believes we have the money to buy another good player if required in january

 

Talk sport should be renamed the top 6 big clubs bum fest.

[the_emu]

talksport press pass just dismissed out of hand any chances of saints finishing top 4...as we have not played anyone 'decent' yet?

 

 

this was in response to darren lewis saying we have an excellent chance and believes we have the money to buy another good player if required in january

 

Descent as in West Ham and Swansea who are making a good fist of it, or decent as in Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City, Spurs who are absolutely gob sh*te at the moment, and doing a good enough job of fecking their season up without us having to beat them.

[doc oli]

4 points off Chelsea with them to play twice - the title is in our hands....

[Rasiak-9-]

Lets see how we are after xmas shall we ?!

 

We have played two of last years top 6 and lost to them both so far

 

You'll notice that my schedule includes us never once winning against any of the big 7. It is do-able even without getting a single win off them (which, naturally I hope it won't come down to)

 

But the point still stands, we aren't RELYING on beating the likes of United or Arsenal or even getting so much as a point off Chelsea in either game.

[S-Clarke]

I heard them getting into an excited mess over Swansea, and also over WHU a few weeks ago. We beat both, away from home.

 

We've had hard games, to suggest otherwise is so small minded. Bloody media.

[Stud mark of doom]

Bookies have us at 2/1 to get top 4. Only 4 teams are shorter odds.

 

The discussion has also highlighted a blatant unfairness in the system: the big four only need to get one point more than the team in 5th to get in the champions league; everyone else needs to get one more point than the team in 4th.

 

Despite this unlevel playing field I agree with the bookies. We could well do it.

[Bearsy]

The discussion has also highlighted a blatant unfairness in the system: the big four only need to get one point more than the team in 5th to get in the champions league; everyone else needs to get one more point than the team in 4th.

 

[Smirking_Saint]

You'll notice that my schedule includes us never once winning against any of the big 7. It is do-able even without getting a single win off them (which, naturally I hope it won't come down to)

 

But the point still stands, we aren't RELYING on beating the likes of United or Arsenal or even getting so much as a point off Chelsea in either game.

 

Im not saying it isnt doable, it definately is

 

To be honest, secretely Im getting excited, but the realist in me is telling me to reign it in until after xmas as, after all, its saints

[positivepete]

On RAWK they have an alternative Premier League table.

 

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0

 

Instead of totting up points for each game, instead they assign each game a 'par' score, for a team to reach 90 points and win the league. (They measure against 71 points to get top four on average)

 

The displayed totals are compared to that par score. Ends up the same as the normal table, but does help during the season to compare how difficult a team's fixtures have been so far.

 

And by that formula we are +/- 0, i.e. on course for 90 points. On the corresponding fixtures method we are +2, i.e. on course for 58 points.

[SarniaSaint]

One game at a time!!!!

[NickG]

Lets see how we are after xmas shall we ?!

 

We have played two of last years top 6 and lost to them both so far

 

Last years top teams?

Liverpool 14 points- games until Christmas - away at Palace, home to Stoke, away to Leicester, home to Sunderland, away at Man U, home to Arsenal - what do you think? Another 8 or so points? Maybe 12? gives them 22 to 26 at Christmas.

 

Man U, 16 points, away to Arsenal, home to Hull, home to Stoke, away to us, home to Liverpool, away at Villa, another 8 to 12? giving 24 to 28 at Christmas?

 

Everton, 14 points, home to West Ham, away to spurs, home to Hull, away to Man C, home to QPR, away to us. 8 to 12? giving 22 to 26

 

Spurs, 14 points, away to Hull, home to Everton, away to Chelsea, home to Palace, away to Swansea, home to Burnley - 9 to 13? giving 23 to 27.

 

Saints - 25 points now.

 

Can't see us being caught by all of them by Christmas, can you?

 

I guess our -2 is due to the West Brom draw ?

 

Yes, only blemish in a run which Arsenal would be proud of.

 

Look, you predicted match by match on a prediction thread that we would lose all five games against the "big five" (including Everton) in November and December.

 

You've changed your mind now, that's fine.

 

Probably worth a bit of humility rather than pretending you didn't predict that, when you clearly did.

 

humility? Don't know why anyone would spend their time looking for silly arguments that don't exist on here, but you are looking silly now.

 

The "prediction" you are obsessing over clearly wasn't that. You even quoted it with the words stating otherwise. Not sure if you are not the sharpest tool or struggle with football debate so play the forum bully? Its not entertaining to me.

 

The clue was in the words! "These are level of results typically needed for 5th/6th, and with our start would still gave us ahead of whats needed over season so far"

(sorry typo gave should read have).

In this thread I have spoken about an Arsenal type season -winning against all but top 7 - this doesn't mean it is a prediction!

 

When you failed to understand how looking at where points are more likely to come from over a season, with our fixture list, it may give a period with a low points return - you conceded it was beyond you to understand - maybe that was time to ask for help? I will help you now, making it easier for you - we play ~Arsenal, Man City and Man U in three consecutive games. Lets say we lose them all (a discussion point not a prediction, I know you struggle ) . That will be 0 points from 3 games. With your argument that is relegation form. I agree in your strange simplistic way if you took that form over a season you would be relegated with 0 points. However, if you look back at the teams who finished 4th recently, they typically drop points in these games. Therefore, there is some logic in saying - if we continue to do as well in other games it is still top 4 form. We may not, it may not be enough but it isn't ridiculous to everyone else!

 

other saw you missing the target...

 

He never said that it's pretty obvious he never said anything like that CB fried. What's he's saying is that with those results are good enough for top 5.

 

I don't think he was predicting so much as saying what was needed to target 5th or 6th place for the season--9 points out of a tough ten games with all the points coming from the easier games. That being said, I think he is wrong and we would need 15 points out of those ten games to reach 5th place and, frankly, right now I am hoping for more.

 

even if you genuinely did misunderstand it was quickly explained to you, so why persist with your argumentative posts?

 

 

 

 

Which isnt in the league and they played a weakened team

 

true - but did include a fair amount of their first team players from last couple of years - Chambers, Sanchez, Cazorla, Wilshire, Rosicky, Podolski, Cambell. We played Gardos and Targett - and were away. So not a bad result.

[CB Fry]

Last years top teams?

Liverpool 14 points- games until Christmas - away at Palace, home to Stoke, away to Leicester, home to Sunderland, away at Man U, home to Arsenal - what do you think? Another 8 or so points? Maybe 12? gives them 22 to 26 at Christmas.

 

Man U, 16 points, away to Arsenal, home to Hull, home to Stoke, away to us, home to Liverpool, away at Villa, another 8 to 12? giving 24 to 28 at Christmas?

 

Everton, 14 points, home to West Ham, away to spurs, home to Hull, away to Man C, home to QPR, away to us. 8 to 12? giving 22 to 26

 

Spurs, 14 points, away to Hull, home to Everton, away to Chelsea, home to Palace, away to Swansea, home to Burnley - 9 to 13? giving 23 to 27.

 

Saints - 25 points now.

 

Can't see us being caught by all of them by Christmas, can you?

 

 

 

Yes, only blemish in a run which Arsenal would be proud of.

 

 

 

humility? Don't know why anyone would spend their time looking for silly arguments that don't exist on here, but you are looking silly now.

 

The "prediction" you are obsessing over clearly wasn't that. You even quoted it with the words stating otherwise. Not sure if you are not the sharpest tool or struggle with football debate so play the forum bully? Its not entertaining to me.

 

The clue was in the words! "These are level of results typically needed for 5th/6th, and with our start would still gave us ahead of whats needed over season so far"

(sorry typo gave should read have).

In this thread I have spoken about an Arsenal type season -winning against all but top 7 - this doesn't mean it is a prediction!

 

When you failed to understand how looking at where points are more likely to come from over a season, with our fixture list, it may give a period with a low points return - you conceded it was beyond you to understand - maybe that was time to ask for help? I will help you now, making it easier for you - we play ~Arsenal, Man City and Man U in three consecutive games. Lets say we lose them all (a discussion point not a prediction, I know you struggle ) . That will be 0 points from 3 games. With your argument that is relegation form. I agree in your strange simplistic way if you took that form over a season you would be relegated with 0 points. However, if you look back at the teams who finished 4th recently, they typically drop points in these games. Therefore, there is some logic in saying - if we continue to do as well in other games it is still top 4 form. We may not, it may not be enough but it isn't ridiculous to everyone else!

 

other saw you missing the target...

 

 

 

 

 

even if you genuinely did misunderstand it was quickly explained to you, so why persist with your argumentative posts?

 

 

 

 

 

 

true - but did include a fair amount of their first team players from last couple of years - Chambers, Sanchez, Cazorla, Wilshire, Rosicky, Podolski, Cambell. We played Gardos and Targett - and were away. So not a bad result.

Nick, you're using that post from Turkish in your defence against me, and at the same time accusing me of being the person that "misunderstands" things. Okay then.

 

You can type and type and type and type whatever feeble defense you like.

 

 

 

On a prediction thread, you posted W/L/D the list of games being considered for predictions on that predictions thread.

 

That, on earth, is commonly accepted as a prediction.

 

And you've changed your mind about it, fine. It's nice to admit how wrong you got it.

 

 

 

Orrr, the other explanation is you are really struggling with what a prediction thread is. They are, after all, really hard to understand and that.

 

But they've been on this forum for many, many years so it surprising how much you can't grasp the concept.

 

And everyone else on that thread (and, lets be fair, on every prediction thread on every football forum in history) understands how they work.

 

Such a shame you struggle so. Send me a PM and I will explain how work, so you know for next time. That way you won't embarrass yourself again by predicting results you then try and disown.

[Turkish]

Talk sport should be renamed the top 6 big clubs bum fest.

 

They have actually been very complimentary about us the last couple of years. Adrian Durham is always praising us.

[Chewy]

Nick, you're using that post from Turkish in your defence against me, and at the same time accusing me of being the person that "misunderstands" things. Okay then.

 

You can type and type and type and type whatever feeble defense you like.

 

 

 

On a prediction thread, you posted W/L/D the list of games being considered for predictions on that predictions thread.

 

That, on earth, is commonly accepted as a prediction.

 

And you've changed your mind about it, fine. It's nice to admit how wrong you got it.

 

 

 

Orrr, the other explanation is you are really struggling with what a prediction thread is. They are, after all, really hard to understand and that.

 

But they've been on this forum for many, many years so it surprising how much you can't grasp the concept.

 

And everyone else on that thread (and, lets be fair, on every prediction thread on every football forum in history) understands how they work.

 

Such a shame you struggle so. Send me a PM and I will explain how work, so you know for next time. That way you won't embarrass yourself again by predicting results you then try and disown.

 

Firstly, I think I speak for everyone when I say this spat is getting very boring.

 

Secondly, cb, it is obvious to absolutely everyone that he was posting a hypothetical set of results to try and back up his argument, not his actual predictions. It's a simple concept, making your subsequent posts even more tedious than the whole argument between you both already is.

 

Please, for the love of God, stop it. We are second in the league. Try and be happy people, not sad Internet bores.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

They have actually been very complimentary about us the last couple of years. Adrian Durham is always praising us.

 

I think it's more the patronising nature of it Turks. A few weeks ago they were saying that West Ham had more chance than us of finishing top 4. No reasoning behind it. Of course, a couple of them are Wham fans...

[SaintBobby]

CB Fry is right, of course, that doing marginally better than the 5th placed team has done is not a recipe for coming 4th. It's a recipe for coming 5th and edging the 5th placed team down to 6th.

 

That said, predictions made on his erroneous basis might end up being right for the wrong reasons. With the exception of Chelsea, the "usual suspects"(i.e. the rest of he "big 7") really look desperately poor this season.

 

One aside - doesn't the 4th place (and maybe from next season even the 3rd place) club go into a one-off knockout? Our reward for finishing 4th could end up being no more than losing a two-legged contest to Seville or Galatasaray or Ajax....

[buctootim]

CB Fry is right, of course, that doing marginally better than the 5th placed team has done is not a recipe for coming 4th. It's a recipe for coming 5th and edging the 5th placed team down to 6th.

 

That said, predictions made on his erroneous basis might end up being right for the wrong reasons. With the exception of Chelsea, the "usual suspects"(i.e. the rest of he "big 7") really look desperately poor this season.

 

One aside - doesn't the 4th place (and maybe from next season even the 3rd place) club go into a one-off knockout? Our reward for finishing 4th could end up being no more than losing a two-legged contest to Seville or Galatasaray or Ajax....

 

The point has been missed. I think Saints will get around 65-68 points. This season that might be enough for 4th. The fact that it wasn't in most previous seasons and probably wont be next season is irrelevant.

Edited 10 November, 2014 by buctootim

[Wes Tender]

I want to know which of Man Utd or West Ham is the more likely to be relegated.

[NickG]

Firstly, I think I speak for everyone when I say this spat is getting very boring.

 

Secondly, cb, it is obvious to absolutely everyone that he was posting a hypothetical set of results to try and back up his argument, not his actual predictions. It's a simple concept, making your subsequent posts even more tedious than the whole argument between you both already is.

 

Please, for the love of God, stop it. We are second in the league. Try and be happy people, not sad Internet bores.

 

Fair point thanks.

 

Stats bore instead...

As explained previously the following isn't a bad model to achieve 4th..

 

Reach 72 points.

Gain these by winning home and away games against teams 9th-20th.

Lose against last seasons top 8.

This is not far off a typical champions league qualification season for arsenal - both on number of points and also where they are gained.

 

 

Saints

We have only dropped 2 points (WBA). Therefore to follow this model we to consistently beat "easier" teams (as we have been) plus need at least two draws from last season's top 7.

(We have 12 "hard" games left to do this).

Achievable, but I think winning week in, week out, in "easier" games is the hard part.

 

After their starts;

 

Man U

They need to immediately start winning all their "winnable" games. Plus need to find 3 wins from remaining 11 games against top 8. Despite their start, (maybe just because of their name / history) you can perhaps imagine them gaining those wins - I think the consistency against "easier" teams maybe their problem.

 

Everton

They need to immediately start winning all "easier" games plus win 3 of the 10 "harder" games. Already a big ask. Next two home games are West Ham and Hull - need to win both.

 

Spurs

They need to immediately start winning all "easier" games plus win 3 of the 10 "harder" games. Next game - need win away at Hull.

 

Liverpool

They need to immediately start winning all "easier" games plus win 1, draw 1 of the 9 "harder" games. In next four they are home to Stoke and Sunderland and away to Palace and Leicester. They need to win all four.

 

You can't discount West Ham and Swansea either.

 

I don't think this model can make any team feel comfortable for top 4 until much further into the season, however, if Liverpool, Everton, Spurs or Man U continue to drop points in "easy" over next few weeks, and fail to gain in their "hard" games, you can see 72 points quickly being very very unlikely.

[Batman]

if only football results worked on 'results models'

[stug76]

if only football results worked on 'results models'

 

you tedious ****.

[Saint Pete]

We've played 11 games and we've done great so far, but there is still a hell of a long way to go.

 

No amount of pouring over stats and who plays who will tell you for sure what's going to happen from now on - that's why we turn up and watch to find out! I still feel it will be very tough for us to maintain a top four position throughout the whole season because the likes of Arsenal / Man C / Liverpool have way more squad depth than us (although I accept we are a little better in this department than we were last year).

 

But, if the usuals suspects keep faltering the way they are at the moment, our chances will keep improving. For now, we just have to keep doing what we're doing, playing each game on its merits, don't get ahead of ourselves and see where it takes us.

[Wes Tender]

I still feel it will be very tough for us to maintain a top four position throughout the whole season because the likes of Arsenal / Man C / Liverpool have way more squad depth than us (although I accept we are a little better in this department than we were last year).

 

But, if the usuals suspects keep faltering the way they are at the moment, our chances will keep improving. For now, we just have to keep doing what we're doing, playing each game on its merits, don't get ahead of ourselves and see where it takes us.

 

Those teams have more squad depth because they are playing in Europe and effectively need nearly two teams. Because of the additonal number of matches they have to play, there is the increased risk of key players being injured or suspended. If they have any significant overlap of players playing both in Europe and the Premier League, there is the additional factor of tiredness. Disappointments suffered from losing CL matches can also affect team morale in league matches and vice versa.

 

So all things considered, their extra squad depth isn't necessarily that much of an advantage. We have adequate cover in most positions for the fixture commitments we have to fulfill.

[stevegrant]

Since the PL was reduced to 20 teams in 1995, the average number of points earned by the team finishing 4th is 68.26, and 63.47 for 5th. However, 68 points would only have secured 7th place last season, and it wouldn't have definitely secured 4th place (i.e. at least a point ahead of the team that actually finished 4th) in any of the previous 8 seasons. In that time, the average points for 4th has been 71.88, which suggests a trend that the top 4 are getting further away from the teams lower down the league.

[Wes Tender]

Since the PL was reduced to 20 teams in 1995, the average number of points earned by the team finishing 4th is 68.26, and 63.47 for 5th. However, 68 points would only have secured 7th place last season, and it wouldn't have definitely secured 4th place (i.e. at least a point ahead of the team that actually finished 4th) in any of the previous 8 seasons. In that time, the average points for 4th has been 71.88, which suggests a trend that the top 4 are getting further away from the teams lower down the league.

Which is unlikely to be the case this year, as those traditional top four teams apart from Chelsea and Man City would have accumulated many more points at this stage usually. Unless they go on fantastic winning runs, the likes of Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool, Spurs, Everton won't be in contention for those last two places with those points totals unless they buck their ideas up and pronto.

[david in sweden]

back to stats.....more stats and da*n lies.....and I'm someone who keeps stats. I think the over-riding factor here is that " the favourites" for title, namely the big teams presently (still in CL) have, for the most part, lost a phenomenal number of points (by their own standards) for a time so early in the season.

 

Chelsea clearly have little opposition to winning the title...(unless Mourinho quits in a bout of anger, or an earthquake hits Stamford Bridge) but several of the others will need a miraculous change of form, (and may be eclipsed by a recovering Newcastle side:lol:...but even a " recovery " such as that would mean their final points title will not be anywhere near as high as it has been in previous seasons.

 

I don't have stats. to hand, but I'd warrant few of them have ever lost so many early season points and went onto qualify. Even with an average of 2.5 points /game...80 points would seem a monumental task.

Edited 11 November, 2014 by david in sweden

[Saint_Ash]

Looking Steve's stats I would say 72 points in the target to aim for to get to top 4, this will obviously be reduced if we manage to get some excellent wins against the usual big boys which we are more than capable of doing at home.

 

This would need us to get another 47 points from 27 games. 16 more wins and we're there. Easy.

[Goalie66]

Which isnt in the league and they played a weakened team

So did we

[Kingsbridge Saint]

Too early for any of this. A bad run at the top has a merciless effect on your league position. It ain't like the old days scratching around and jumping six places with a couple of wins. Let's stop holding ourselves out for merciless **** taking come January by pulling our heads in and getting through the next 10 games. If we're still in the top 4 then, I am getting my calculator out too.

[lickierambert]

After 12 games, Man Utd are 4th with 19 points.

 

This is the lowest EVER 4th place total after 12 games since 3 points for a win were introduced in 1981/2

[Smirking_Saint]

So did we

 

So its not really comparable is it ? Fwiw I think they are entirely beatable, especially the way we are playing, however looking at the facts, we havnt beaten anyone from last years top 6 yet

[Whitey Grandad]

Sod top 4, I want the title:)

[Jimmy_D]

I don't think we need to worry about Liverpool as Top Four rivals any more.

 

If we do end up competing with them, it'll be lower than that.

[Saintandy666]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

 

According to this 72 point will guarantee us champions league football. Although anything 64ish upwards should be fine too.

[Rasiak-9-]

Woo hoo! Back to even par on the 'top four schedule' I made a little while ago (and who saw that coming after the Burnley disaster?)

 

 

Villa (a) -------------------3 (-2)

City (h)--------------------1 (-3)

Arsenal (a)---------------1 (-4)

United (h)----------------1 (-5)

Burnley (a)---------------3 (-

Everton (h)---------------1 (-6)

Palace (a)----------------3 (-6)

Chelsea (h)---------------0 (-5)

Arsenal (h)---------------1 (-3)

United (a)-----------------0 (back to even par!)

Newcastle (a)------------3

Swansea (h)--------------3

QPR (a)--------------------3

West Ham (h)------------3

Liverpool (h)--------------1

Palace (h)-----------------3

Chelsea (a)---------------0

Burnley (h)----------------3

Everton (a)---------------1

Hull (h)---------------------3

Stoke (a)------------------3

Spurs (h)------------------1

Sunderland (a)-----------3

Leicester (a)--------------3

Villa (h)--------------------3

City (a)--------------------0

[Rasiak-9-]

Oh W.Brom away between Liverpool and Palace should be in there; guess thats a 'par win' if we want to finish top 4.

[Smirking_Saint]

Well, we did much better than I anticipated, even when it seemed (burnley) things had got too much for us from a tired legs point of view. Its basically in our hands now. A few tricky fixtures to negotiate but no major fixture problems from a grouped difficult games POV

 

Some of the teams lower down may now be fighting harder, but realistically they may open up more and then effectively play into our hands.

 

Am I allowed to get excited now ?

[SuperMikey]

So basically, if we win 11 of our remaining 18 games we're pretty much guaranteed Top 4.

 

Newcastle

Swansea

QPR

West Ham

Liverpool

West Brom

Palace

Chelsea

Burnley

Everton

Hull

Stoke

Spurs

Sunderland

Leicester

Villa

Man City

 

Looking at those fixtures we've got 7 very winnable games in a row until we hit Chelsea in March (with the possible exception of Liverpool & West Ham). Then after that the only real danger in the next lot of fixtures is Spurs, right up until City on the last day of the season. Obviously we'll drop points and make mistakes that will cost us games, but we don't have a pile-up of tough games now like we have done for the last 6 weeks.

 

Put together another winning streak like at the start of the season and Champions League is ours!

[Saint_clark]

Put together another winning streak like at the start of the season and Champions League is ours!

 

Read that and just let it sink in. I'm here laughing my head off at where we are right now. I was sat in St Marys when we lost 2-0 to Rochdale, when fans were fighting amongst themselves after losing to Doncaster, when we had a mere 13,000 people in the stadium for a game V Charlton. Now we're beating Arsenal comfortably, winning away to United with one of the best defensive displays the league has ever seen and genuinely challenging for Champions League places. Christ almighty.

 

Markus...we wish you were here.