How many points do we need for the top 4?

[Rasiak-9-]

Now obviously this is all speculative and anything can happen, but hey whats a forum for?

 

So; I'd say we'd probably need another 50 points from the remaining 27 games to give us a tally of 75 points (which, I'd say is the kind of target we really have to aim at if we want to make it)

 

Mapping out a 'schedule' does I'm afraid bring home how tough that is likely to be; but are any of these results unachievable?

 

Villa (a) -------------------3

City (h)--------------------1

Arsenal (a)---------------1

United (h)----------------1

Burnley (a)---------------3

Everton (h)---------------1

Palace (a)----------------3

Chelsea (h)---------------0

Arsenal (h)---------------1

United (a)-----------------0

Newcastle (a)------------3

Swansea (h)--------------3

QPR (a)--------------------3

West Ham (h)------------3

Liverpool (h)--------------1

Palace (h)-----------------3

Chelsea (a)---------------0

Burnley (h)----------------3

Everton (a)---------------1

Hull (h)---------------------3

Stoke (a)------------------3

Spurs (h)------------------1

Sunderland (a)-----------3

Leicester (a)--------------3

Villa (h)--------------------3

City (a)--------------------0

 

So obviously that's me having a bash at predicting literally every result; but obviously plenty of them can be 'clumped together' (i.e - 3 points from our next 3 fixtures after Villa can be a win and two losses as well as drawing all three/four points from Spurs (h) + Sunderland (a) can be achieved with a win and a draw in either order etc.etc.)

 

Its just my rough idea of the kind of results/form that would be required for us to actually make it into the top four and I think it maps out a reasonable 'schedule' with which to aim at.

 

The key matches that will define our season IMO won't be the run of tough matches coming up, but the run of winnable, but tricky fixtures immediately after them in February where we really will have to get straight back to winning and winning consistently (Newcastle/QPR/Swans/West Ham).

 

If we do bounce straight back and go on another run through those games, then I think we're in with a shout, but if there's a hangover from the run of extremely tough fixtures over this winter period, that'll probably be what does the damage.

 

Its going to be tough. Very, very tough, but it *could* be done!

[buctootim]

The points required to get 4th averages at 65 over the past 7 years (ie the number required to beat 5th place, not the average points achieved by the 4th place team). So far we've averaged 2.27 points per game. We'd 'only' have to average 1.48 for the rest of the season to get 65. Its definitely doable.

[SaintBobby]

We have secured 16 points from our six home games so far. (2.67 points per game)

 

If your prediction is right, we'd get 20 pts from out next 13 home games. (1.54 per game).

 

If we are to finish in the top four, we will need to (continue to) be near perfect home IMHO

[Rasiak-9-]

The points required to get 4th averages at 65 over the past 7 years (ie the number required to beat 5th place, not the average points achieved by the 4th place team). So far we've averaged 2.27 points per game. We'd 'only' have to average 1.48 for the rest of the season to get 65. Its definitely doable.

 

Mmm...trouble there is that the fifth placed team were usually the likes of say...an Everton or a fairly average Spurs who didn't have huge ambitions to reach the top four the way that some of the clubs currently below us do; you've got to assume that United and Spurs/Liverpool (eventually) will mount a tougher test to us this season than those sides did for the likes of Arsenal in seasons past.

 

I don't think 65 will be anywhere near enough for us, as all it'll take is just any oneof Everton/Spurs/Liverpool/United will exceed that total (I'm assuming the top three are the top three)

 

Secondly I'm not quite sure you can categorise or generalise simply home games/away games; the quality of opposition in this league is hugely variable.

 

I'd be disappointed with anything less than a win away to Burnley, whilst I'd be delighted to get anything at all from Chelsea even at home.

[Maggie May]

That's an entirely optimistic prediction. In afraid we'll encounter a slump after Villa. It's inevitable.

[Doctoroncall]

The points required to get 4th averages at 65 over the past 7 years (ie the number required to beat 5th place, not the average points achieved by the 4th place team). So far we've averaged 2.27 points per game. We'd 'only' have to average 1.48 for the rest of the season to get 65. Its definitely doable.

 

and let battle commence!

[SNOWY]

How many points are we likely to need to finish 6th?

[CB Fry]

The points required to get 4th averages at 65 over the past 7 years (ie the number required to beat 5th place, not the average points achieved by the 4th place team). So far we've averaged 2.27 points per game. We'd 'only' have to average 1.48 for the rest of the season to get 65. Its definitely doable.

Not this again FFS.

 

If we get one point, or slightly better goal difference than the "average needed to finish fifth" then we will finish fifth.

 

Because another team, surprise surprise, will achieve around the average needed to finish fourth and will subsequently finish fourth.

 

Nice to see thus classic debate rolled out. Well I say debate. It's not really a debate. Just some people being wrong.

[CB Fry]

And, just for completeness, have just trailed back about six or seven seasons - 65 is nowhere, nowhere near enough in any of them.

[Turkish]

The points required to get 4th averages at 65 over the past 7 years (ie the number required to beat 5th place, not the average points achieved by the 4th place team). So far we've averaged 2.27 points per game. We'd 'only' have to average 1.48 for the rest of the season to get 65. Its definitely doable.

 

Where on earth did you get this from Timothy? For starters we need to finish 4th not 5th so we need beat the team who finished 4th to do this. If as beat the team who finished 5th, guess what, we'd finish 5th. Secondly the points to finish 4th in the last 10 years have been 68-79 so an average of around 73. With us on 25 after 11, leaves us needing 48 from 27 we're looking at around 1.77 a game. Other than that you're bang on the money.

[Turkish]

How many points are we likely to need to finish 6th?

 

A few more than the team that usually finishes 7th, or something.

[norwaysaint]

Looking back over the past few seasons, we'd need at least low seventies, probably mid seventies, although it may be lower this season if the challenging clubs keep dropping points. Across a whole season though, you'd imagine a few of those clubs have the depth to pick up points more consistently than us once our form wobbles and our currently high morale takes a knock.

65 seems very optimistic for fourth though.

[CWD]

You have to take into account as well that we already have an 8 point cushion on 5th placed Arsenal

[CB Fry]

Looking back over the past few seasons, we'd need at least low seventies, probably mid seventies, although it may be lower this season if the challenging clubs keep dropping points. Across a whole season though, you'd imagine a few of those clubs have the depth to pick up points more consistently than us once our form wobbles and our currently high morale takes a knock.

65 seems very optimistic for fourth though.

65 is definitely doable for fourth. Mainly because I, like many others, am expecting Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal to all be done for financial irregularities and all be hammered for 15 points each come May.

[norwaysaint]

You have to take into account as well that we already have an 8 point cushion on 5th placed Arsenal

You have to take into account that we've got a similar amount of points now to what we had last season at this stage and that was only good enough to finish 8th once the whole season had played out.

[Bucks Saint]

You have to take into account that we've got a similar amount of points now to what we had last season at this stage and that was only good enough to finish 8th once the whole season had played out.

 

You dont think we are better than last season, or that we have more depth in the squad (for some positions), or that we have a superior manager and coaching team. Fair enough but I dont agree

[norwaysaint]

I mean exactly what I said. At this time last year, we were on nearly the same points as we are now. We finished eighth once all matches were played. Do you disagree with anything I've actually said?

[CB Fry]

You dont think we are better than last season, or that we have more depth in the squad (for some positions), or that we have a superior manager and coaching team. Fair enough but I dont agree

 

This is a discussion about points required for finishing positions, not whether or not people think we are better than last season.

 

Us being better than last season does not cosmically change the typical number of points required to finish in any given spot in the league.

Edited 9 November, 2014 by CB Fry

[Bucks Saint]

I mean exactly what I said. At this time last year, we were on nearly the same points as we are now. We finished eighth once all matches were played. Do you disagree with anything I've actually said?

 

Yes, that we have to take last season into account, for the reasons I stated. Thats why I said I dont agree.

[Bucks Saint]

This is a discussion about points required for finishing positions, not whether or not people think we are better than last season.

 

NS thinks last season has an influence. I dont.

[CB Fry]

NS thinks last season has an influence. I dont.

 

Does he? Where?

[Saint Charlie]

You have to take into account that we've got a similar amount of points now to what we had last season at this stage and that was only good enough to finish 8th once the whole season had played out.

 

Wrong. It took us 18 games to get 25 points last season.

[Saint_Tony]

I'd guess around 72. So we're looking at another 47 points from 27 games, which still looks incredibly tough. 14 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats. Swap a couple of wins for draws and we're looking at 6th and 7th, the margins are so fine. For now, we are top 6 contenders, but 4th isn't anything worth thinking about too much, we need to get at least 12 points from the next 7 games to stay in contention

[brmbrm]

Wrong. It took us 18 games to get 25 points last season.

 

This is germane. Plus 47 points from 27 is tough, yes, but not impossible.

 

One game at a time. Or as they seem to say these days.

 

One. Game. At. A. Time.

 

Or something like that. It makes a difference you know

[Turkish]

To put what we need to do into perspective 83/84 was our biggest ever top flight total, we got 77 points from a 42 games season. We'd probably need to perform better than that to get enough points to finish in the champions league place. so It would need our best ever top flight performance to finish 4th even though we'd probably finish 2 places lower. It's a huge ask however 'doable' people might think it to be.

[SNSUN]

3 wins to lift the League Cup suddenly seems much more doable.

 

I'd love us to finish top 4, it would, as Savage says, be the single biggest achievment for any team since the Premier League was formed. But I do feel it's premature. This is a long old season, and while we're beating the teams that should finish below us, we've yet to beat a top side, as keeps getting stated. (Though I do feel we could give anyone a game if we're on form.) Having said that, I like it when Saints do the double over teams, home and away wins. 10 of those is 60 points. Aside from West Brom when we were still clicking, we've seen off all the other "lesser teams". That's 8 wins. 8 chances so far of doing the double. Other team's form does change, but it is possible if we keep playing well or grinding results out.

 

JRod still to come back too. He'll feel like a new signing in January if we keep him.

[hutch]

And, just for completeness, have just trailed back about six or seven seasons - 65 is nowhere, nowhere near enough in any of them.

Except 2008/09

 

and 2010/11

 

and 66 would have been enough in 2011/12, which I think is quite near.

 

But otherwise you're dead right, as usual.

[CB Fry]

Except 2008/09

 

and 2010/11

 

and 66 would have been enough in 2011/12, which I think is quite near.

 

But otherwise you're dead right, as usual.

 

65 would have landed us in fifth in 2008/9, Arsenal in fourth got 72 points.

 

I'm not going to bother rechecking 2010/11 as it will be the same kind of thing as you are coming from the "just one more point than fifth" starting point, which is just a pointless argument.

Edited 9 November, 2014 by CB Fry

[saint si]

Except 2008/09

 

and 2010/11

 

and 66 would have been enough in 2011/12, which I think is quite near.

 

But otherwise you're dead right, as usual.

 

Err 4th was 69 points in 2011-12... http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%9312_Premier_League#League_table

[buctootim]

Where on earth did you get this from Timothy? Other than that you're bang on the money.

 

Here

http://arsespeak.com/2013/04/20/top-four-threshold-how-many-points-does-arsene-need-for-champions-league-qualification/

Here

http://www.spurs.vitalfootball.co.uk/article.asp?a=7514542

and here

http://basstunedtored.com/2013/01/26/what-you-need-to-finish-fourth-are-liverpool-close/

 

I'm sure you're the one who's right, after all you're clever and popular and awesome and stuff. Yes those examples don't include in 2014 - so have a go at disproving a 10 year trend based on one year, that would be you know, awesome.

[CB Fry]

Err 4th was 69 points in 2011-12... http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%9312_Premier_League#League_table

You're wasting your time.

 

In their world the team in 4th - say Arsenal - and their 70 - plus points just disappear into thin air, leaving the way clear for the Super Saints to effortlessly stroll to fourth with the lowest points total in a decade or so.

[buctootim]

You're wasting your time.

 

In their world the team in 4th - say Arsenal - and their 70 - plus points just disappear into thin air, leaving the way clear for the Super Saints to effortlessly stroll to fourth with the lowest points total in a decade or so.

 

 

You're ignoring the fact that in previous years whilst one top team may have had a bad start its unprecedented for four of the usual CL challengers - Man U, Liverpool, Everton and Spurs to all be stumbling badly at the same time. Unless there is a dramatic recovery by them AND a bad fallaway by Saints then its doable. The team currently in 4th, West Ham, are on target to get 62 points season end. Why would you want to deny that this year it could be doable? Not every year for sure, but this year, yes.

Edited 9 November, 2014 by buctootim

[Turkish]

Here

http://arsespeak.com/2013/04/20/top-four-threshold-how-many-points-does-arsene-need-for-champions-league-qualification/

Here

http://www.spurs.vitalfootball.co.uk/article.asp?a=7514542

and here

http://basstunedtored.com/2013/01/26/what-you-need-to-finish-fourth-are-liverpool-close/

 

I'm sure you're the one who's right, after all you're clever and popular and awesome and stuff. Yes those examples don't include in 2014 - so have a go at disproving a 10 year trend based on one year, that would be you know, awesome.

 

There's an easier way mate. Just look at the final league table for the past 10 season, see what points the team that finished 4th had, then work it out yourself. Remember we don't need to finish one point higher than 5th, we need to finish one point higher than 4th. You're right, I am clever and popular and awesome And stuff but you don't need to be all of those things to check a few league tables.

Edited 9 November, 2014 by Turkish

[AussieDog]

Interesting that every team below 5th currently is closer to the bottom 3 than they are to us - and even 5th is equidistant. I have a feeling 4th place could be a record low total and will be up for grabs right until the last game of the season. This has to be our best ever shot at it if we keep a settled side and avoid too many injuries and suspensions.

[NickG]

Maybe quite low this year but 72 points should be enough.

 

Interestly, 4th place seems to go to a team performing in a way that people give as a reason we will fail - a poor return from top teams, winning most of the rest.

 

If you win all games against teams 9-20th, that gives 72 points.

As far as point return we could afford to drop some points in our tough games, however clearly that means other teams gaining but most importantly what would the relative impact on both teams confidence be?

 

If we are going to stand decent chance for 4th, we need to keep this consistency for the season and could really do with a clear other top 3 taking points off any other rivals for top 4.

At the moment, teams to hit 72 this way:

Chelsea +11

Man C +3

West Ham 0

Arsenal -1

Saints -2

Swansea -3

Liverpool -4

Spurs -4

Everton -5

Newcastle -5

Man U -8

 

If we aren't taking points against Arsenal, Man U etc makes other games pretty much must wins for 4th.

[shurlock]

Top 4 is pie in the sky b*****ks, though there's no reason why we can't achieve 60+ points.

 

Worth remembering that in our first season back in the prem, we managed only 4 points from the first 10 games (admittedly the fixture list dealt us a s****y opening hand).

 

We then went on to collect 37 points from the remaining 28 games, taking some big scalps but also losing to some utter dross.

 

If we can't better that haul with this season's much stronger squad, then I'd be extremely disappointed. How much we can better it by is anyone's guess.

Edited 9 November, 2014 by shurlock

[Jimmy_D]

On RAWK they have an alternative Premier League table.

 

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0

 

Instead of totting up points for each game, instead they assign each game a 'par' score, for a team to reach 90 points and win the league. (They measure against 71 points to get top four on average)

 

The displayed totals are compared to that par score. Ends up the same as the normal table, but does help during the season to compare how difficult a team's fixtures have been so far.

[CB Fry]

You're ignoring the fact that in previous years whilst one top team may have had a bad start its unprecedented for four of the usual CL challengers - Man U, Liverpool, Everton and Spurs to all be stumbling badly at the same time. Unless there is a dramatic recovery by them AND a bad fallaway by Saints then its doable. The team currently in 4th, West Ham, are on target to get 62 points season end. Why would you want to deny that this year it could be doable? Not every year for sure, but this year, yes.

You're ignoring the fact that that is all irrelevant.

 

The team that finishes fourth this season - whether it is us or someone else - is 99% certain to get more than 65 points. It will be around 69 to mid seventies, as the last decade shows.

 

That's what fourth place teams get, and worrying about form of any given team in any given season is unnecessary.

 

The chances of the fourth place team finishing on 65 is best described as miniscule.

[SNOWY]

A few more than the team that usually finishes 7th, or something.

 

What about 9th?

[Toadhall Saint]

To put what we need to do into perspective 83/84 was our biggest ever top flight total, we got 77 points from a 42 games season. We'd probably need to perform better than that to get enough points to finish in the champions league place. so It would need our best ever top flight performance to finish 4th even though we'd probably finish 2 places lower. It's a huge ask however 'doable' people might think it to be.

 

It was a good season. Can this season be better? God only knows but I know I'm enjoying it.

 

I can't be arsed but is there not a comparison to be had on where after 11 games in the past few seasons the traditional top four were in the table, after all it's not just about the points we "need" it's about how the others are performing. As it sits currently we have clear daylight (more than 3 points) from Man City, not saying that will last but I thought it would have been only 2 today.

[Lighthouse]

If you take Liverpool out of last years table then Everton would have been 4th on 72 points. I would say that is roughly the bench mark this year.

[stug76]

65 would have landed us in fifth in 2008/9, Arsenal in fourth got 72 points.

 

I'm not going to bother rechecking 2010/11 as it will be the same kind of thing as you are coming from the "just one more point than fifth" starting point, which is just a pointless argument.

Ok, how many points did Arsenal (the 4th placed team) need to get 4th?

[Jimmy_D]

Don't look it as how many points the team in fourth could have dropped and still got fourth.

 

They got those points, they set the benchmark.

 

Look at it as how many points the team in fifth needed to overhaul them, because they dropped short and didn't make it.

[Bearsy]

Don't look it as how many points the team in fourth could have dropped and still got fourth.

 

They got those points, they set the benchmark.

 

Look at it as how many points the team in fifth needed to overhaul them, because they dropped short and didn't make it.

 

This is true, but I reckon it could be rogue season, like the time Everton snuck in on 61 or whatever it was. Less than 70 points I reckon, this year would do it for us. Maybe 65. Not sure bout 62, which is how many points we will finish with.

[Jimmy_D]

This is true, but I reckon it could be rogue season, like the time Everton snuck in on 61 or whatever it was. Less than 70 points I reckon, this year would do it for us. Maybe 65. Not sure bout 62, which is how many points we will finish with.

 

It is starting to get scary now.

 

We keep winning over and over, while having one of the tightest defences in Europe.

 

Meanwhile, more and more results elsewhere keep going our way.

 

It's starting to feel like the back to back promotion seasons, especially the Championship one where no-one was giving us a chance at the start.

[Whitey Grandad]

There's an easier way mate. Just look at the final league table for the past 10 season, see what points the team that finished 4th had, then work it out yourself. Remember we don't need to finish one point higher than 5th, we need to finish one point higher than 4th. You're right, I am clever and popular and awesome And stuff but you don't need to be all of those things to check a few league tables.

 

Doesn't one point higher than 4th put you in 3rd?

[trousers]

Doesn't one point higher than 4th put you in 3rd?

Only if the team in 3rd were one point higher than 4th in the first place and had less goal difference.

 

[NickG]

Maybe quite low this year but 72 points should be enough.

 

Interestly, 4th place seems to go to a team performing in a way that people give as a reason we will fail - a poor return from top teams, winning most of the rest.

 

If you win all games against teams 9-20th, that gives 72 points.

As far as point return we could afford to drop some points in our tough games, however clearly that means other teams gaining but most importantly what would the relative impact on both teams confidence be?

 

If we are going to stand decent chance for 4th, we need to keep this consistency for the season and could really do with a clear other top 3 taking points off any other rivals for top 4.

At the moment, teams to hit 72 this way:

Chelsea +11

Man C +3

West Ham 0

Arsenal -1

Saints -2

Swansea -3

Liverpool -4

Spurs -4

Everton -5

Newcastle -5

Man U -8

 

If we aren't taking points against Arsenal, Man U etc makes other games pretty much must wins for 4th.

 

After today's games

Chelsea +11

Man C +3

West Ham 0

Arsenal -4

Saints -2

Swansea 0

Liverpool -4

Spurs -7

Everton -7

Newcastle -5

Man U -8

 

 

(Just to clarify For CB as he seems to be only one who struggles...I am not predicting we will win all of these games, and lose all of ones against top 7, its a model of one way a steady 4th place may happen)

[Whitey Grandad]

Only if the team in 3rd were one point higher than 4th in the first place and had less goal difference.

 

 

But then they wouldn't be 4th, they'd be 3rd and the team in 4th would be 5th. Or not. Or something.

[Smirking_Saint]

Lets see how we are after xmas shall we ?!

 

We have played two of last years top 6 and lost to them both so far