a typical early season wonder?

[richard]

I had a little fantasy yesterday about maintaining our position until the end of the season......Then I realised our last game is away to Man City. My heart would just not take that kind of pressure!

 

If you offered me having to beat City on the last day to stay second I'd snap your hand off for it, and not in a Lallana-y way.

[Ohio Saint]

If you offered me having to beat City on the last day to stay second I'd snap your hand off for it, and not in a Lallana-y way.

 

I know, I know, but the tension!!! Hell, every single week at the moment seems like two weeks due to waiting for Saturday to come.......Following Saints used to be so much easier on the nerves than our new expectations demand!

[Bobbyboy]

We're not a typical early season wonder I think, but the fact we did it last year as well puts me more in mind of Norwich back in the late 80s/early 90s. They often seemed to have that great start and then fall away... except one time (93?) they kept it going enough to finished third. Not that historical comparisons mean anything, and football IS so different today, but that's what our start reminds me of the most.

[Whitey Grandad]

If you offered me having to beat City on the last day to stay second I'd snap your hand off for it, and not in a Lallana-y way.

 

No chance of that.

 

 

It'll more likely be a title decider

[NickG]

It still the usual excitable morons spouting it, look who started this thread for evidence. although this time they have a bit more substance. We've got a deeper and better squad now than last season, what appears to be a better manager so far and in Pelle the striker Osvaldo was meant to be. Throw into the mix that many of the top 7 staples of the last few years are underachieving right now then perhaps the door is more open now than a year ago. However whilst we appear to be stronger now then last season it would still be an incredible achievement to finish top 6 and still depends on a lot going right for us and wrong for bigger clubs than us.

 

This thread isn't predicting we will win the league, or finish top whatever, it is to appreciate and enjoy the achievement of the start of our season.

So not "spouting" anything! I agree with rest of your post (apart from moron, I'm far from that, but will admit to being excitable about saints - is that meant to be an insult?

Our finish has much to do with how other teams do, I can't see Liverpool, Everton or spurs matching their last seasons - maybe not Man U.

 

 

Pretty much bang on. Although for some it seems negative to dare to suggest we might only finish 8th, which would make it another good season. To do better we will need a good bit of luck. It's unlikely, but certainly not impossible

Don't think your prediction is unrealistic, really hard to predict this season. 8th would be a good season, I keep telling myself that but fear my heart is started to see higher as attainable!

Bookies seem to have us finishing 6th.

 

You do realise on this forum the other day you predicted us to lose all our forthcoming games against the big boys (including Everton) and for us to only achieve 9 points from the next 10 games (this was last week so included Hull) which in itself is relegation form but in our case would get to a points per game rate after 20-odd games that would land us at about 8th across a full season.

 

So one of the forums predicting us "fading away" is this one. And one of the people predicting it is, well, you.

 

No, I don't realise that , as its not true. I haven't predicted our next games, don't generally go in for game prediction as don't like balancing my optimism with expecting a win when I go.

 

You may have got yourself confused, again, with posts in motd thread? There was discussion about what's will happen over next few months and whether we will drop. A poster gave their prediction. I gave example showing we don't need to beat top teams, and can perform a lot worse and start new year in good position.

You seem to want to jump on my posts for some reason. Have I offended you? Anyway don't want to get personal but you've missed your target last two attempts.

 

 

 

You still have to be able to take points from the top teams, and right now I, aswell as many others, are trying to curtail my optimism by pointing out the fact that we have had a reasonably easy start, and the two top teams we have played we have lost to.

 

Now, you could temper that with the fact that we have played Swansea a d West Ham and won, both were form teams at the time.

 

This could be our year, but right now Im looking at the Dec fixtures and holding back my cries of CL..... Hopefully I can start claiming we are the real deal by jan

 

Last year, arsenal lost away to Chelsea, Liverpool, man city, man u and Everton.letting in 21 goals. Only one they beat at home was Liverpool, so one win out of ten. Was same year before, one win, again Liverpool. Year before, a little better but lost to man u (twice) Liverpool, Man C, spurs. Year before they again lost most of tough games. Spurs finished 4th despite losses to man city (twice) man u ( twice) arsenal and Everton. Draws in some other hard games.

 

Teams can finish high without beating top sides. We have been unusually consistent against the others so don't "need " to beat the big teams, if we continue.

 

Will we? Haven't got a clue but we are better prepared than last season

1) I don't think we have half a squad and manager wishing they were somewhere else

2) think we have better manager

3) definately more depth - used Jos last season, now have Gardos., Toby cover for RB, Targett rather than Fox for LB, if Tadic/Pelle straight swaps, and JayRod returns we have Mane and Long as cover rather than Guly etc. Also we were unlucky with spine of team hit at same time - Wanyama, Lovren and Boruc, JayRod injured when in top form. Just bit better luck on injuries could make huge difference.

 

I don't know where we will finish, but stand by my preseason (deluded ) comments that signs are club planning on attempt to improve on last season.

[CB Fry]

 

No, I don't realise that , as its not true. I haven't predicted our next games, don't generally go in for game prediction as don't like balancing my optimism with expecting a win when I go.

 

You may have got yourself confused, again, with posts in motd thread? There was discussion about what's will happen over next few months and whether we will drop. A poster gave their prediction. I gave example showing we don't need to beat top teams, and can perform a lot worse and start new year in good position.

You seem to want to jump on my posts for some reason. Have I offended you? Anyway don't want to get personal but you've missed your target last two attempts

 

You don't go in for predictions?

 

I've got confused? And it isn't true?

 

Okay then.

 

Have a look on the November/December predictions thread.

 

 

These are level of results typically needed for 5th/6th, and with our start would still gave us ahead of whats needed over season so far;

hull City v Southampton D

Southampton v Leicester W

Villa v Southampton D

Southampton v Man City L

Arsenal v Southampton L

Southampton v Man U L

Burnley v Southampton W

Southampton v Everton L

Crystal Palace v Southampton D

Southampton v Chelsea L

 

 

So don't get too down if we do drop points

 

"This is the level of results needed for 5th/6th" no it isn't, it's relegation form and we'd be down to about eighth on that run.

 

And you forecast us losing all of our games against the big boys.

 

Yeah. Look at me all wrong and missing the target.

 

 

(For some reason on Tapatalk every time I quote your Nov/Dec prediction list it dumps it back on the original thread, so apologies for duplicate post. But at least it bumps the other thread so you can read those predictions you "didn't make" in situ)

 

You're welcome.

Edited 5 November, 2014 by CB Fry

[Redslo]

You don't go in for predictions?

 

I've got confused? And it isn't true?

 

Okay then.

 

Have a look on the November/December predictions thread.

 

I don't think he was predicting so much as saying what was needed to target 5th or 6th place for the season--9 points out of a tough ten games with all the points coming from the easier games. That being said, I think he is wrong and we would need 15 points out of those ten games to reach 5th place and, frankly, right now I am hoping for more.

[CB Fry]

I don't think he was predicting so much as saying what was needed to target 5th or 6th place for the season--9 points out of a tough ten games with all the points coming from the easier games. That being said, I think he is wrong and we would need 15 points out of those ten games to reach 5th place and, frankly, right now I am hoping for more.

It's a list of games on a prediction thread with W/L/D next to each game.

 

The "quoted out of context" defence not really going to stand up.

 

And you are right - that is not the level required for 5th/6th. It's more like a collapse, or to use NickG's own terms "fading away".

[saintbob40]

It's getting a bit embarrassing now. Just seen some of our lot interviewed on Sky Sports News talking about Europe etc, people saying why are we being disregarded as title challenegers? Come on.. I expect similar to last season to happen.

 

Our squad is much stronger than last year. No Fox , Hoiveld, gazza to worry about. We also appear to have a plan B and C tactically with a little bit of squad rotation. We could do with a back up "hold the ball up " No 9 and a keeper ( or can we pull Boruc back on a moments notice? )

[NickG]

It still the usual excitable morons spouting it, look who started this thread for evidence. although this time they have a bit more substance. We've got a deeper and better squad now than last season, what appears to be a better manager so far and in Pelle the striker Osvaldo was meant to be. Throw into the mix that many of the top 7 staples of the last few years are underachieving right now then perhaps the door is more open now than a year ago. However whilst we appear to be stronger now then last season it would still be an incredible achievement to finish top 6 and still depends on a lot going right for us and wrong for bigger clubs than us.

 

Pretty much bang on. Although for some it seems negative to dare to suggest we might only finish 8th, which would make it another good season. To do better we will need a good bit of luck. It's unlikely, but certainly not impossible

 

You do realise on this forum the other day you predicted us to lose all our forthcoming games against the big boys (including Everton) and for us to only achieve 9 points from the next 10 games (this was last week so included Hull) which in itself is relegation form but in our case would get to a points per game rate after 20-odd games that would land us at about 8th across a full season.

 

So one of the forums predicting us "fading away" is this one. And one of the people predicting it is, well, you.

 

I don't think he was predicting so much as saying what was needed to target 5th or 6th place for the season--9 points out of a tough ten games with all the points coming from the easier games. That being said, I think he is wrong and we would need 15 points out of those ten games to reach 5th place and, frankly, right now I am hoping for more.

 

Of course you are right, there is no prediction there - quite funny, posting a quote saying " here you did say it" when quote clearly reads otherwise.

 

Anyway, I was surprised when I looked up Arsenal and Spurs' recent top 4 finishes, how badly they did against top teams. (See post 57).

Obviously what's needed for a 5th/6th finish depends on how other teams do, great runs will make it harder. But, if anything, I think my alternative league table model could end up providing more points than is needed.

 

Those results , in my opinion, would likely leave us in top 5 for new year and on course to stay there. What matters is how we then continue, do the defeats knock confidence or do we go back to beating lower teams? CB is right that that level of form, if you ignore opposition, is relegation form. However, what he doesn't understand is that are two things

1) the points we already have / likely to get either side

2) who we are playing.

 

The alternative table was to temper enthusiasm (mine included) due to our start being in part due to who we have played. It is excellent start, but is helped by who we played.

 

( I will update table after next weekend's fixtures, even if we don't get the required par result of a win).

 

You can't argue it both ways, as some seem to try - our start due to easy games / ignore fact we don't 'need' to win hard games (unless we are aiming for top 2!)

[CB Fry]

Of course you are right, there is no prediction there - quite funny, posting a quote saying " here you did say it" when quote clearly reads otherwise.

 

So the letters W/L/D against a list of games on a prediction thread was not a prediction?

 

Okay then.

[brmbrm]

No, we have not played Chelsea, Man C and Arsenal. We have played 5 and 6 placed teams and tonked them. So they must have played pretty well overall to still be 5th and 6th, i.e. the form teams, yet we beat them.

 

Squad is deeper this year. No, I do not think we will end 2nd, but we have a better chance of top 4 now than i can ever remember:

 

- Very very unlikely we will finish aboive Chelsea and Man Cit

- Unlikely: Arsenal and ManU

- Quite possible/probably: Liverpool, Everton

- Probable: Spuds

- very likely, and if we dont we wont be top 5 anyway: Swansea and Wet Spam

 

Overall: possible 5th, outside shot at top 4, probable 6 or 7.

 

Top 4 please

[Beckenham Saint]

I asked Sky about this and they came up with similar stats to the OP:

 

http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/12038/9549586/martin-tylers-stats-and-facts-manchester-derby-omens

 

Hi. Southampton currently have 22 points from 10 games. Has any team ever started a season this well and not gone on to finish in the top four? If so, what is the lowest any Premier League team has finished after amassing this many points 10 games into the season? Thanks, Matt

 

MARTIN SAYS: With the help of Opta, I can tell you that Southampton are the 13th team in Premier League history to record exactly 22 points from their first 10 matches and nine of those teams went on to finish inside the top four.

 

All of those teams finished inside the top half of the table with the lowest finish coming from Wigan Athletic in 2005/06. They had a flying start to the season, picking up 22 points from their first 10 games and then only picking up a further 29 points in the rest of their campaign.

 

The other teams to pick up 22 points in their first 10 games and not finish inside the top four are Aston Villa (finished sixth in 1998/99), Newcastle (finished fifth in 2011/12) and Manchester City – see above - (finished ninth in 2007/08).

 

Teams with exactly 22 points after 10 games

 

1997/98: Arsenal – Went on to finish 1st

 

1998/99: Aston Villa - Went on to finish 6th

 

1999/00: Leeds – Went on to finish 3rd

 

2001/02: Liverpool – Went on to finish 2nd

 

2003/04: Man Utd – Went on to finish 3rd

 

2004/05: Everton – Went on to finish 4th

 

2005/06: Wigan – Went on to finish 10th

 

2007/08: Man City – Went on to finish 6th

 

2009/10: Arsenal – Went on to finish 3rd

 

2009/10: Man Utd – Went on to finish 2nd

 

2011/12: Newcastle – Went on to finish 5th

 

2011/12: Tottenham – Went on to finish 4th

 

2012/13: Man City – Went on to finish 2nd