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General Election 2015


trousers

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Worry now is a Conservative majority...

In real terms, it will be. Just discussed it on BBC.

 

Sinn Fein won't turn up, so the Tories have enough. [if exit polls are correct etc]

 

Lib Dems, UKIP, SNP, all irrelevant.

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Terrible night for Labour and the LibDems if the exit polls are accurate. Also suggests that the opinion polls, including Lord Ashcroft's aren't worth the paper their written on.

 

I think Ed Milliband performed better than a lot of people thought during the campaign. But if they end up with less seats, then he'll be out.

He won't be around if Labour "lose", especially if they lose to the extent suggested by the exit polls.

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What I can't understand with this exit poll is the fact that they sampled roughly 20,000 people. The sample size in comparison to the population in its entirety is tiny, and if it was done in a scientific report and submitted to a committee for publishing, it would be laughed at and rejected because the ratio is obscene and assumptions cannot be made. So why is this different?

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I'm a wait and see sort of person.

 

Well, ladies and gentlemen, it has been a great pleasure debating with you all over the last few interminable weeks and you have made the long wait all the more interesting. Whatever the result I'm sure we shall all be back soon enough putting the country to rights. A very good evening to you all :toppa:

And so to bed...

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Would be very surprised if this exit poll is accurate. Agree with Alastair Campbell (amongst others) that it doesn't feel right.

It reckon it will be. It's a massive sample and it's people immediately after they've actually voted.

 

Basically it pis ses all over the other polls in terms of sample size and methodology.

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How many leaders (Tory/Labour) survive an election they didn't win?

Kinnock survived an election loss in the 1980s. Went on to fight, and lose the sequel. Rocky it was not. He didn't survive the 1992 loss.

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Tories comfortably hold Labour target seat Swindon North. Crucially, the result is in line with the exit poll prediction.

 

Swindon North result:

CONS: 50.3% (+5.7)

LAB: 27.8% (-2.7)

UKIP: 15.4% (+11.7)

LD: 3.3% (-14.0)

GRN: 3.3% (+2.3)

 

Opinion polls leading up to the election predicted a 3% - 4% swing to Labour in this seat, but instead its a 5% swing to the Tories....

Edited by trousers
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Well this is all very boring so far. Just for entertainment, a few predictions:

 

Tories to win Southampton Itchen

Labour to win Southampton Test, run fairly close.

Tories to win with around 300 seats.

UKIP with a paltry 1 seat.

Greens zero.

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Its looking like 1992 all over again, even had the Welsh Windbag calling the voters " self deluded" . Gonna stay up and watch the lefties cry.

 

I've not had a good protest in a while. Best get to finding one through the tears ;)

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Woolfe, Nuttall etc would have much more populist appeal than Farage, continue to take votes from 'traditional' Labour sources.

 

Whilst I obviously profoundly disagree with all that UKIP stands for, I think Woolfe is a sophisticated operator and I would suggest a strong candidate to replace Farage.

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Whilst I obviously profoundly disagree with all that UKIP stands for, I think Woolfe is a sophisticated operator and I would suggest a strong candidate to replace Farage.

 

Hear hear.

 

Which is a hideous, sickening thought.

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