Alternative table - fixture compensated race for Europe

[NickG]

An alternative league table....

 

Are we only 3rd due to easy fixtures?

 

Have the teams competing for 6th to 8th had a harder start?

 

I have tried to work out a league table which compensates for easy/hard fixtures. As well as looking at progress towards a points total rather than against other teams. This is based on several presumptions, eg how points will be divided home/away, what constitutes easy/hard games etc. There is some subjectivity involved but I have based my presumptions on last 5 years tables.

 

My starting point is we are aiming for European qualification by finishing 6th. 6th place should be achieved if we reach 63 points. I have added a small safety margin with a target of 66 points. I have worked out which fixtures a team finishing 6th with 66 points should win/lose/draw. The league table is a running comparison of how each team is doing compared with this projection.

 

A few examples;

 

Chelsea away,

win + 3 points, draw +1, lose 0.

 

QPR home, win 0, draw -2, lose -3 - as to finish 6th we would expect to win this game and a defeat would put us 3 points behind schedule.

 

Current alternative table:

Man C +8

Chelsea +7

Saints +1

Arsenal +1

Spurs 0

West Ham +1

Liverpool -1

Swansea -3

Everton -3

Hull -4

Man U -7

Stoke -9

 

Interested me that even allowing for fixtures we are 3rd, but surprised how close Spurs are. The other stand out for me is Man U, for them to just finish 6th they already need to pick up more points away or against top sides.

 

Happy to update this after more games if anyone interested, but in summary Spurs on target for 6th and we are ahead!

[Matthew Le God]

My starting point is we are aiming for European qualification by finishing 6th.

 

6th place in the Premier League is not an automatic Europa League qualification spot.

Edited 23 October, 2014 by Matthew Le God

[pap]

Difficult to say, although "easy fixtures" have been a common comment on the podcasts I listen to.

 

I can't wait to get stuck into some bigger teams myself. See what this team is really made of.

[Saint Garrett]

Difficult to say, although "easy fixtures" have been a common comment on the podcasts I listen to.

 

I can't wait to get stuck into some bigger teams myself. See what this team is really made of.

 

We have tbf - played 2 lost 2. Looking forward to see our home games against the "bigger" sides.

[scotty]

Difficult to say, although "easy fixtures" have been a common comment on the podcasts I listen to.

 

I can't wait to get stuck into some bigger teams myself. See what this team is really made of.

 

To be fair, the two "big" clubs we've played this season have beaten us by one goal. Both away. And you could argue that we probably did enough to expect at least a point from both games, so I'm with you in looking forward to the top 4 regulars.

[SammyJ]

6th place in the Premier League is not an automatic Europa League qualification spot.

 

Out of interest - has 6th place ever NOT meant qualification for Europa league? i.e. none of top four win FA Cup or League Cup. I cannot think of a year that happened.

[Saint Garrett]

Out of interest - has 6th place ever NOT meant qualification for Europa league? i.e. none of top four win FA Cup or League Cup. I cannot think of a year that happened.

 

Wigan the other year? Swansea?

[Turkish]

what an absolutely pointless excercise that was.

[Turkish]

We have tbf - played 2 lost 2. Looking forward to see our home games against the "bigger" sides.

 

and we were the thickness of the crossbar and a horrendous miss away from getting a point in both.

[Summers]

If you follow @simongleave on Twitter he works for Infostrada sports who do the SCoRe (Season Comparative results) he tends to put them up ones a week. He's not done it since the Sunderland result, however we're 3 points better off than last season's results.

 

Makes for interesting reading.

[Matthew Le God]

6th place in the Premier League is not an automatic Europa League qualification spot.

 

Out of interest - has 6th place ever NOT meant qualification for Europa league? i.e. none of top four win FA Cup or League Cup. I cannot think of a year that happened.

 

50% of the last 4 seasons...

 

2010/11 - Liverpool came 6th & no European football achieved - Fulham 8th (Fair Play), Stoke 13th (FA Cup runners up) and Birmingham (League Cup winners) 18th into Europa League

2012/13 - Everton came 6th & no European football achieved - Swansea 9th (League Cup winners) and Wigan 18th (FA Cup runners up) into Europa League

 

You need 5th to guarantee European football.

Edited 23 October, 2014 by Matthew Le God

[KingdomCome]

what an absolutely pointless excercise that was.

 

What an utterly pointless comment.

 

I think it provides a point of discussion, but I'd agree with adrian above that beating the "easier" teams can get you a hell of a long way. It has often been Saints' downfall.

[positivepete]

An alternative league table....

 

Are we only 3rd due to easy fixtures?

 

Have the teams competing for 6th to 8th had a harder start?

 

I have tried to work out a league table which compensates for easy/hard fixtures. As well as looking at progress towards a points total rather than against other teams. This is based on several presumptions, eg how points will be divided home/away, what constitutes easy/hard games etc. There is some subjectivity involved but I have based my presumptions on last 5 years tables.

 

My starting point is we are aiming for European qualification by finishing 6th. 6th place should be achieved if we reach 63 points. I have added a small safety margin with a target of 66 points. I have worked out which fixtures a team finishing 6th with 66 points should win/lose/draw. The league table is a running comparison of how each team is doing compared with this projection.

 

A few examples;

 

Chelsea away,

win + 3 points, draw +1, lose 0.

 

QPR home, win 0, draw -2, lose -3 - as to finish 6th we would expect to win this game and a defeat would put us 3 points behind schedule.

 

Current alternative table:

Man C +8

Chelsea +7

Saints +1

Arsenal +1

Spurs 0

West Ham +1

Liverpool -1

Swansea -3

Everton -3

Hull -4

Man U -7

Stoke -9

 

Interested me that even allowing for fixtures we are 3rd, but surprised how close Spurs are. The other stand out for me is Man U, for them to just finish 6th they already need to pick up more points away or against top sides.

 

Happy to update this after more games if anyone interested, but in summary Spurs on target for 6th and we are ahead!

 

The easier way to measure our progress to 66 points is to use what is called in industry the moving annual total, in football terms this is the corresponding fixtures measurement. At the moment we are on course for 56 points the same as last year as our results overall in the corresponding fixtures this season against the corresponding fixtures last season are identical.

 

We drew with Stoke at home last season, if we beat them Saturday we will be plus 2 or on course for 58 points.

[jasonb]

They do something similar on the Liverpool RAWK forums... alternative top 6 (the big 4 plus themselves and Spurs IIRC) table or something.

 

Anyway, they have graphs and all sorts. Being a creative type I'd like to see more graphs throughout the season.

[NickG]

Firstly, typo in my list - WHU should read -1.

 

Positive Pete - agree easier comparing with last seasons fixtures but don't think that would give a fair indication until the end of the season. How we did last season, or where we got points has little relevance on this...we could be looking great if we reverse a couple of bad results, but come the end of a season we may need to then match our performance of the previous season and match a one off victory at Stamford bridge.

 

This also aims to compare other teams, difficulty of fixtures etc.

 

Although I said this is a target for 6th, which requires 63 points I set a target for this plan at 66 (to enable home/away/easy/hard games to balance).

We are ahead of the target for 66 by one point, so if follow target for rest of season, hit 67.

 

Over last few years the average points for;

4th= 72

5th= 68

6th= 63

 

This weekend the ties where challengers need victories and could drop below par are:

Saints

Everton

Liverpool

Spurs

[Saint_Tony]

How about we just look at the real table? We are where we are on merit, regardless of who we've played. We won't finish there, so let's just enjoy it (or someone could make another alternative table later in the season to try and make us higher up the league)

[Dark Munster]

The easier way to measure our progress to 66 points is to use what is called in industry the moving annual total, in football terms this is the corresponding fixtures measurement. At the moment we are on course for 56 points the same as last year as our results overall in the corresponding fixtures this season against the corresponding fixtures last season are identical.

 

We drew with Stoke at home last season, if we beat them Saturday we will be plus 2 or on course for 58 points.

Are you positive about that, Pete? Yes we have the same number of points from the 7 teams who were in the PL last season, but we are 3 points up against the weakest promoted team (QPR, who are also bottom) versus the bottom team last season (Cardiff).

[david in sweden]

Difficult to say, although "easy fixtures" have been a common comment on the podcasts I listen to.

 

There are no "easy fixtures in the Prem." whilst it's true that top teams win most and the bottom sides struggle for points, last season our best 8th spot...still meant that we didn't fare so well against the top sides;

 

Man.City 1 point, Chelsea 0 points, Arsenal 1 point, Liverpool 3 points, Everton 3 points, Man Utd 2 points and Spuds 0 points. (even a retrospective assessment would show we weren't worth many more)...

......in all - against the top 7 sides we gained only 10 points of a possible 42.

 

OK we say ..they were the best in the League......HOWEVER; against some teams near last seasons bottom end; we didn't fare much better.

 

we beat Cardiff away, but lost at home.(total 3 pts.) Lost away to Norwich, though won well at home (3). Sunderland two draws (2), Draw at home with WHam, but lost away (1). Lost at home to Villa, drew away (1).

 

thats only 10 points out of a possible 30. A real lack of consistancy that I hope we can overcome this season.....because only another 15-18 points ....would have put us in Europe this season.

 

Easy games?....not many. Surely the annihilation of Sunderland last Saturday will be regarded as the easiest game this season, but last Friday everyone (even Koeman) was talikng about a tough game and many of us would have been fairly content with one point from that fixture......

Edited 23 October, 2014 by david in sweden

[ericb]

To be fair, the two "big" clubs we've played this season have beaten us by one goal. Both away. And you could argue that we probably did enough to expect at least a point from both games, so I'm with you in looking forward to the top 4 regulars.

 

we were also murdered by Swansea until we had a massive stroke of luck and their best player got sent off.

 

Not belittling our current position or form but lets leave talk of europe for later in the season eh? It's hardly a surprise a lot of other fans think we're arrogant with all this chat of making Europe through the league.

 

Personally i'm just enjoying each game and loving the fact we're playing decent football, winning well and 3 divisions above the skates!

 

This weekend the ties where challengers need victories and could drop below par are:

 

There's enough bloody americanisms in football as it is, can we please stop the word ties creeping in as it's seems to be doing more and more (add to that Match Day x and EPL).

[Batman]

]we were also murdered by Swansea[/b] until we had a massive stroke of luck and their best player got sent off.

 

Not belittling our current position or form but lets leave talk of europe for later in the season eh? It's hardly a surprise a lot of other fans think we're arrogant with all this chat of making Europe through the league.

 

Personally i'm just enjoying each game and loving the fact we're playing decent football, winning well and 3 divisions above the skates!

 

 

 

There's enough bloody americanisms in football as it is, can we please stop the word ties creeping in as it's seems to be doing more and more (add to that Match Day x and EPL).

yeah, 0-0 though

[ericb]

yeah, 0-0 though

 

You can't tell me you didn't watch that first half (up to the sending off) thinking "we'll be bloody lucky to get a draw out of this!". Swansea were by far the better side and we were being run ragged, in a very similar way and style to the way that Spurs did actually.

[positivepete]

Are you positive about that, Pete? Yes we have the same number of points from the 7 teams who were in the PL last season, but we are 3 points up against the weakest promoted team (QPR, who are also bottom) versus the bottom team last season (Cardiff).

 

I had replaced Cardiff with Burnley, Fulham with Leicester, Norwich with QPR. If I recall we were about 10 points ahead after as many games last year, and we rarely looked like getting less than 50 points.

[CB Fry]

 

There's enough bloody americanisms in football as it is, can we please stop the word ties creeping in as it's seems to be doing more and more (add to that Match Day x and EPL).

 

Is "tie" an Americanism?

 

They've been saying "ties will be played on the weekend of so-and-so" at the end of the FA Cup draws for as long as I can remember. Which is a reasonably long time.

[Redslo]

Is "tie" an Americanism?

 

They've been saying "ties will be played on the weekend of so-and-so" at the end of the FA Cup draws for as long as I can remember. Which is a reasonably long time.

 

"Tie" is American for a game where the sides both score the same number of goals, runs, points, or whatever. Americans never use "ties" to refer to a scheduled match or game.

 

I think the original complainer misunderstood how "ties" was being used by the prior poster or, as we Americans would put it, he was confused.

Edited 23 October, 2014 by Redslo
For clarity and to make reposters look bad.

[The9]

There's enough bloody americanisms in football as it is, can we please stop the word ties creeping in as it's seems to be doing more and more (add to that Match Day x and EPL).

 

You've never heard of a "cup tie" then?

 

1909, Leeds City v West Ham, "Second Round English Cup Tie"

 

[The9]

Oh, and Match Day was a popular 1980s Spectrum computer football game produced and written in the UK, so I'd be fairly sure that's been around for years as well.

 

[Whitey Grandad]

You've never heard of a "cup tie" then?

 

1909, Leeds City v West Ham, "Second Round English Cup Tie"

 

 

And 'cup tied'.

[CB Fry]

Oh, and Match Day was a popular 1980s Spectrum computer football game produced and written in the UK, so I'd be fairly sure that's been around for years as well.

 

Match Day 2 was the sh it.

[VectisSaint]

There's enough bloody americanisms in football as it is, can we please stop the word ties creeping in as it's seems to be doing more and more (add to that Match Day x and EPL).

Extraordinary the things that some people think are Americanisms. "Tie" is a term that is very specific to UK sports. I've been going to cup ties for more than 50 years. Are you one of the many that thinks "soccer" is an Americanism as well.

[VectisSaint]

"Ties" is American for a game where the sides both score the same number of goals, runs, points, or whatever. Americans never use "ties" to refer to a scheduled match or game.

A tie in cricket is when both teams score the same number of runs. As far as I know cricket is not American.

[The9]

A tie in cricket is when both teams score the same number of runs. As far as I know cricket is not American.

 

That is however, completely irrelevant.

[The9]

And 'cup tied'.

 

Could be a completely different etymology though, to do with being tied to another team's registration, and not about a match (or a draw) at all.

[sandwichsaint]

Cup competition have ties - they are 'cup ties'. League competitions have fixtures. Either of these could alternatively be regarded as matches or games. Ties and fixtures are not inter-changeable (IMHO). The round of league games this weekend are fixtures, our game at Stoke next week is a cup tie.

 

Nothing to do with Americanisms as such, just (young?) people not understanding the traditional ways in which the game has evolved. Don't get me started on 'EPL', American-derived or not that's just wrong on so many levels.

[Polaroid Saint]

Love the way this thread has descended into deep etymological discourse. Classic SaintsWeb.

 

Cambridge versus Oxford with goals from Collins, Webster and Johnson?

[Whitey Grandad]

http://www.alumni.cam.ac.uk/sites/www.alumni.cam.ac.uk/files/styles/250px_155px_product/public/images/products/tie_v2_0.jpg

[Dark Munster]

I had replaced Cardiff with Burnley, Fulham with Leicester, Norwich with QPR. If I recall we were about 10 points ahead after as many games last year, and we rarely looked like getting less than 50 points.

Maybe we haven't improved by 10 points again (hard to get to 25 points from 8 matches!) But after 8 matches last year we had 15 points and a gd of +5. Now we have 16 points and gd of +14. Still improving.

[PhilippineSaint]

What an utterly pointless comment.

 

I think it provides a point of discussion, but I'd agree with adrian above that beating the "easier" teams can get you a hell of a long way. It has often been Saints' downfall.

 

I'm with Turkish on this what is the point of all this ? the table does not lie we are third and until we or those above us lose we willstay there. so we have had a few easy games and Arsenal and Man utd haven't ??

[Saint_Abroad]

Love the way this thread has descended into deep etymological discourse. Classic SaintsWeb.

 

It's tiering

[hutch]

http://www.alumni.cam.ac.uk/sites/www.alumni.cam.ac.uk/files/styles/250px_155px_product/public/images/products/tie_v2_0.jpg

Nah, mate. That's a necktie.

[CB Fry]

What an utterly pointless comment.

 

I think it provides a point of discussion, but I'd agree with adrian above that beating the "easier" teams can get you a hell of a long way. It has often been Saints' downfall.

 

Has it really though? It's not like we have ever been specialists at beating the big teams, either.

 

We've been, at best, a mid table Prem team. Doing what mid table Prem teams do. Win some you expect to, lose some you expect to, and in the middle win and lose some you don't expect to. Not really rocket science.

 

As it stands this season we have done very well, with a comparatively easy set of games. We're third. Let's enjoy it without beating ourselves up about making up completely fictional league tables.

 

The discussion about the word "tie" is the best bit of this thread.

[whelk]

Let's just enjoy being top of the 2nd half table

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/sndhalf.html

 

And we have won every game we have taken the lead in (pts lost)

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/ptslost.html

 

They don't seem to have a table of beating teams beginning with 'S' but think we might be top of that too.

[NickG]

Can I make a suggestion? This isn't a contentious issue, either you think its of interest and has some merit, or you don't. I obviously think it has some interest and intend to carry it on, for my own interest.

If it doesn't interest you why not respect your fellow posters and leave this thread for its intended topic?

 

CB and Phillipine I don't think you understand the OP.

The OP explains how its not just because of easy fixtures that we are where we are. With their "ties" , and if we were performing at the same level , Man U should be ahead of us.

Mid tables teams do not pick up points as consistently as we have, or typically have the away wins. Quite simple, we are currently, as we approach ¼ of the season performing better in the fixtures given than you would expect the team finishing 5th/6th to do.

 

Saintswen

How about we just look at the real table? We are where we are on merit, regardless of who we've played. We won't finish there, so let's just enjoy it (or someone could make another alternative table later in the season to try and make us higher up the league)

 

OK, you look at real table, no problem.

 

You say we are there on merit, some media & rivals have stated we are only there due to fixtures. This analysis shows even with compensation for fixtures we are fairly there.

 

I also did it to help posters like this guy who was posting this week about where we need points from (joking aside it was this post that started me thinking about where we need points from)

We need to pick up a few more points against the sides above us (everton, spurs, liverpoool). Let's not forget that we've improved on some of last season's results (west ham away, sunderland home) though. In terms of quality I don't think the gap between ourselves and everton and spurs is that great. Everton in particular are struggling with having to play in the europa league. Realistically we have an outside chance of top 6, but would need quite a lot of luck along the way. I think the picture will be a lot clearer by the turn of the year. I'd be happy with 10th or above and a cup final

 

You also posted this week about how many wins we need and when we will have an idea of where we will finish - so would think this would help you

 

You also list 9 teams who are better than us, including Swansea, you are concerned that as we lost to spurs we will be bottom half (but also say we are close to top 6??

 

 

Quite possibly, that's the unpredictable nature of football. And also the reason we are only a mid table club. If we won all the games that we arguably should on paper, we'd be top 6. For this reason I think we will lose to either Stoke or Sunderland, regardless of the fact we should be beating them

 

 

 

 

So would think it may have been of interest, but, if you have no interest in an alternative table maybe don't open, read and post on a thread with that in the title!

 

This interests me, hope others find some interest in it but dont mind if they don't. I think it is far from 100% but do think gives a bit more information to assess how teams are doing.

 

 

Anyway, that's killed time for my train journey!

[whelk]

Agree NickG so tiresome when unimaginitve people post 'just look at the real table' etc or 'who cares?' to hypothetical questions.

I noticed a thread about other teams results got a fair few ' I just care about Saints'.

These people are cvnts I tell you

[Whitey Grandad]

Thanks for taking the trouble NickG, if we can't dream now then when?

[PhilippineSaint]

I am dreaming we are third and will stay there until we either lose or move up to second or first. How an altenative table could help this I have no idea.

I have just got my head around 3 points for a win and he tries to do this with my mind

[CB Fry]

Can I make a suggestion? This isn't a contentious issue, either you think its of interest and has some merit, or you don't. I obviously think it has some interest and intend to carry it on, for my own interest.

If it doesn't interest you why not respect your fellow posters and leave this thread for its intended topic?

 

CB and Phillipine I don't think you understand the OP.

The OP explains how its not just because of easy fixtures that we are where we are. With their "ties" , and if we were performing at the same level , Man U should be ahead of us.

Mid tables teams do not pick up points as consistently as we have, or typically have the away wins. Quite simple, we are currently, as we approach ¼ of the season performing better in the fixtures given than you would expect the team finishing 5th/6th to do.

 

Saintswen

 

 

OK, you look at real table, no problem.

 

You say we are there on merit, some media & rivals have stated we are only there due to fixtures. This analysis shows even with compensation for fixtures we are fairly there.

 

I also did it to help posters like this guy who was posting this week about where we need points from (joking aside it was this post that started me thinking about where we need points from)

 

 

You also posted this week about how many wins we need and when we will have an idea of where we will finish - so would think this would help you

 

You also list 9 teams who are better than us, including Swansea, you are concerned that as we lost to spurs we will be bottom half (but also say we are close to top 6??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So would think it may have been of interest, but, if you have no interest in an alternative table maybe don't open, read and post on a thread with that in the title!

 

This interests me, hope others find some interest in it but dont mind if they don't. I think it is far from 100% but do think gives a bit more information to assess how teams are doing.

 

 

Anyway, that's killed time for my train journey!

 

No-one said it is contentious.

 

Just pretty pointless.

 

No one thinks we are "only there because of fixtures". No one at all. What is true is our fixtures have been pretty kind so far.

 

We're third, it's brilliant. It's unlikely we will be third come May, not least because we have some tough fixtures coming up and we probably won't maintain this form (almost title winning form) all season.

 

But it is currently looking very good for us to beat in points or position what we did last season. Happy days.

 

That's a perfectly valid stance to take and it isn't down to you to decide that opinion can't be expressed on this thread.

[del boy]

Let's just enjoy being top of the 2nd half table

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/sndhalf.html

 

And we have won every game we have taken the lead in (pts lost)

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/ptslost.html

 

They don't seem to have a table of beating teams beginning with 'S' but think we might be top of that too.

 

The Times "Fink Tank" currently has us down for a 5th place finish

 

http://www.dectech.co.uk/football/seasonend_overall.php

[Gorgiesaint]

The Times "Fink Tank" currently has us down for a 5th place finish

 

http://www.dectech.co.uk/football/seasonend_overall.php

 

Yes, but then they appear to have pompey down to finish 3rd in L2!!

[NickG]

After Saturday 25 October

Current alternative table:

Man C +5

Chelsea +7

Saints +1

Arsenal +3

Spurs 0

West Ham +4

Liverpool -3

Swansea -3

Everton -3

Hull -3

Man U -7

Stoke -10

[DuncanRG]

How was this calculated?