NickG Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 As we have come away from both Liverpool and Spurs with nothing, I was thinking about whether we need points from teams above us to finish higher. Obviously, those games maybe 6 pointers so not just about points we gain, but the average points (home /away split) for teams finishing 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th over last few years are; 3rd 75 (43/32) 4th 72 (40/32) 5th 68 (39/29) 6th 63 (39/24) 7th 59 (33/26) Our last season, 56 (30/26). So far this season 16 (10/6). We have 15 games left at home & away. Therefore, on average, to finish 6th we may need 47 more points from 30 games, 29 from 15 home games, 18 from 15 away games. Achievable? Where from? 10 home wins, 6 away will do it! The main difference between the top places is often not on amount of games won, but turning losses into draws. A long long way to go, but we can love with a bad spell in December and still improve on last season (56 points -30/26). Rough example target fair chance to get 6th... Home, need to win 12 easiest games, (9th-bottom), draw next easiest 3 (5th, 7th and 8th). Away, beat 15th-20th, draw with 9th to 14th. Sounds easy ! If you can predict final table you can work out if we are ahead. I'm sure it won't be this tidy when we start dropping points we don't expect but was curious how much of a hit we can afford to take in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkou Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 We have had very favorable fixtures, losing to the only 2 decent sides we have played. I would be more than happy with another top 10 finish and maybe a tilt at the cups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 We have had very favorable fixtures, losing to the only 2 decent sides we have played. I would be more than happy with another top 10 finish and maybe a tilt at the cups. We beat Swansea away when they were 3rd and we have beaten West Ham away and they are 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucks Saint Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 Nick thanks for doing this, this is very interesting. I need to sit down with a cold drink to properly consider this, while examining the fixture list after Jan 1st (so I dread to think what you went through to draw this up ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Tony Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 We need to pick up a few more points against the sides above us (everton, spurs, liverpoool). Let's not forget that we've improved on some of last season's results (west ham away, sunderland home) though. In terms of quality I don't think the gap between ourselves and everton and spurs is that great. Everton in particular are struggling with having to play in the europa league. Realistically we have an outside chance of top 6, but would need quite a lot of luck along the way. I think the picture will be a lot clearer by the turn of the year. I'd be happy with 10th or above and a cup final Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 If only football was so easy...! But, yes it's certainly do-able. If we can get a couple of players in the Jan window to provide cover for the injuries/suspensions we can certainly finish 6th Really depends on whether Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool can get their act together and start pushing on as we hope to do. Not sure if Liverpool can do it on the squad they have. If Utd's defence doesn't improve soon we'll steal a march on them to make the second half of the season a tad interesting. We weren't that far behind them last time round. I feel the Arse will come good once Theo gets back and they sign another striker to do what Podolski was supposed to do. Good times ahead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatch Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 We have had very favorable fixtures, losing to the only 2 decent sides we have played. We beat Arsenal away, and they put out a fairly decent team. Better than they usually do for the Milk Cup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 We beat Swansea away when they were 3rd and we have beaten West Ham away and they are 4th Swansea completely out played us until Bony hit the self destruct button. We've had a very easy run by Premier League Standards, that is obviously an important context in this discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cat Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 Unless we have a big injury crisis I really can't see any team that finished below us last season overtaking us. It's totally unrealistic for us finish above Chelsea and Man City. Over the season Man Utd and Arsenal will both gain more points than us. Hopefully it will be reasonably close between us, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton for the next 4 places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 We'd need to average 1.86 points per game for the rest of the season to get 5th. Last season we had a similar start but only ended up 1.47. Sixth is much more doable, an average of 1.57 from now on. I can see us reaching that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
positivepete Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 We have the same number of points as last season from the corresponding fixtures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Munster Posted 20 October, 2014 Share Posted 20 October, 2014 We have the same number of points as last season from the corresponding fixtures. Liverpool -3 West ham +3 Sunderland +2 West Brom -2 QPR/Cardiff +3 Newcastle +0 Swansea +0 Spurs +0 I make that 3.5 points better. (Another 0.5 for goal difference ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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