Guided Missile Posted 17 October, 2014 Posted 17 October, 2014 Great article in the Times, here.The calculations made by Dr Henry Stott, Dr Mark Latham and Dr Kostas Paraschakis show that Southampton are on course to finish on 61 points. That is their expected number. At the beginning of the season we were expecting them to finish on 52 points, and this nine-point gain is bigger than any other club. In other words, Southampton are doing quite a bit better even than we expected them to on the basis of last year’s campaign and before they sold anyone.At the beginning of the season, Southampton had a 3 per cent chance of a top-four finish and a 7 per cent chance of a top-five finish. After all those sales, they have a (striking) 28 per cent chance of a Champions League slot and a 45 per cent chance of finishing in the top five.
SNSUN Posted 17 October, 2014 Posted 17 October, 2014 I'd say it's 50/50. Either we do, or we don't. It'd be nice if we do though.
Saint Garrett Posted 17 October, 2014 Posted 17 October, 2014 Not convinced it's that high. Fixtures play a part.
Patrick Bateman Posted 17 October, 2014 Posted 17 October, 2014 To be fair, it's a win-win for the academics here. We finish top 5 and "hey, our new calculations were right". We finish 10th and "hey, our 55% showed that it was more likely they'd finish outside the top 5" Love utter guff stats like this!
positivepete Posted 17 October, 2014 Posted 17 October, 2014 We are still two points behind last seasons results, it is early days and to be fair we could well keep on improving as it seems the drive is there to do better not just to survive. I suppose the key will be how we cope with injuries and suspensions. We are picking up more yellow cards this season, partly because we are showing a willingness to pick up a booking for the team if we are under threat. Part of the winning mentality we seem to be developing. Let us hope the fink tank points prediction is correct.
Bucks Saint Posted 17 October, 2014 Posted 17 October, 2014 Great news. Preparing my litigation against the Times just in case they are wrong
eelpie Posted 17 October, 2014 Posted 17 October, 2014 We have some top clubs still to play during this half of the season. Too early to predict on the basis of some relatively easy games so far.
sammysaint Posted 18 October, 2014 Posted 18 October, 2014 I tell you what if we win today then I think top 7 is very achievable, however I doubt we will finish top 5 or 6, if Koeman can better last season finish and also take us 1 round further in each cup then poch did, it will be a fantastic season and a great platform for us to become a top 5/6 side and be a Spurs type club who finish between 7th and 5th every season.
Highfield Saint Posted 18 October, 2014 Posted 18 October, 2014 If you like the times article then you'll love this http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/10/10/6957007/premier-league-projections-week-7 Spurs web-site showing season projections and methodology
stevy777_x Posted 18 October, 2014 Posted 18 October, 2014 Err...do they mean of staying up, surely. What a troll, laughable.
trousers Posted 18 October, 2014 Posted 18 October, 2014 What a troll, laughable. Trolls are only trolls if people respond to them....
PhilippineSaint Posted 18 October, 2014 Posted 18 October, 2014 If you like the times article then you'll love this http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/10/10/6957007/premier-league-projections-week-7 Spurs web-site showing season projections and methodology The only sensible bit of that was "Spurs and their compatriots just need to play better. That's how they'll move up the projected table." The rest was pure gibberish.
manina-pub Posted 18 October, 2014 Posted 18 October, 2014 3rd apparently.. http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/premierleague/league?sort=predicted
Saint Without a Halo Posted 18 October, 2014 Posted 18 October, 2014 3rd apparently.. http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/premierleague/league?sort=predicted 15 goals conceded all season?
Saint Without a Halo Posted 18 October, 2014 Posted 18 October, 2014 (edited) 57% chance of a top 4 finish here and 14.3% for the title and now only 0.4% chance of relegation and that was even before todays result this uses Monte Carlo to analyse a well established basis of analysis and was pretty accurate last year but has some bais to current form http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html Edited 18 October, 2014 by Saint Without a Halo
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now