2014/15 Season. Saints top 6. Nailed on.

[sadoldgit]

Still early days but 8th would be brilliant. If Mane is as good as we are led to believe and Jay gets back to something like his old form you would hope that we would be pushing a bit higher - but I think we need to wait to 10 games in before we get too excited. Looking good though!!!

[RinNY]

Seems to me there's not much doubt we should be a top 10 club again: the question is how high can we go. I'm always an optimist, but it does look to me that the club, facing the necessity to re-build after MoPo's exit led some key players to insist on leaving, got some things very, very right.

 

Our form last season was certainly strongly influenced by the likes of Lambert, Lallana, and Lovren, but focus on those three, and on Shaw's precocious talent, led to the real basis for our success being overlooked: the stable platform for both effective defense and good transition from defense to attack provided by our central midfield. The decisions to retain Schneiderlin, Cork, and Wanyama -- all three of whom, though to differing degrees, were subject to trade rumours -- kept the heart of the team intact, along with Davis (S.) and Ward-Prowse. And that has made the re-building process relatively seamless.

 

Like-for-like replacements in Pelle for Lambert, Tadic for Lallana, Bertrand for Shaw, and Alderweireld/Gardos for Lovren/Chambers, were able to fit in around the retained core: that stable central midfield group to begin with, Fonte as leader in defense, and the excellent Clyne. That's the basis for a really effective re-build.

 

But the club didn't stop with that: they strengthened two key areas. In goal, a younger, more consistent keeper in Forster adds to our defensive stability. In attack, the pace and nuisance value offered by Long gives us better balance than we had last year. And then, of course, there's the wild card: Sadio Mane. If he lives up to his promise, I can seriously see us challenging Everton and Tottenham -- neither of whom really strengthened their squads this summer (because Everton already had Lukaku last year, & lost Deulofeu) -- for 6th place. Fingers crossed, and if all goes well, that is. Yes, the glass is half full, and filling. Barring injuries or other unforeseen issues, the season looks very promising.

[suewhistle]

the pace and nuisance value offered by Long

 

For all the talk that we've overpaid for him I think that's a very apt description of what he brings to the table.

 

Either way, interesting times..

[Saxon]

Looking at our fixture list again, we really have a pretty good one for our situation. Yes we have the difficult Christmas period, but, we have such an amazing opportunity to build up a real head of steam over the next 8 league games [sWA (A), QPR (H), TOT (A), SUN (H), STO (H), HUL (A), LEI (H), AVL (A)] before we hit City at home. Apart from the Tottenham away game realistic aims would be to win every one of these matches. Now obviously that is unlikely to be the case in the real world, look at Swansea this weekend for an example of a tough one, but we can definitely still win it. But the squad will be approaching these knowing they have a very realistic chance in every single one. This is the stretch of the season I would compare us to next season with. I think Sunday 30th of November, our home tie with Man City, would be a good assessment date for how we will have compared with last season. Hopefully, it will be better or equal! And if it was similar to last season we should hopefully have a good amount of confidence to go and attack the Christmas fixtures against the bigger teams and hopefully do better than last season, especially considering we dropped points in games against bottom half opposition we shouldn't have.

 

Winter/Christmas Fixtures:

 

Man City (H) Sun 30/11 - City come into this on the back of a CL home tie with Bayern Munich on Tue 25/11 and follow it with Sunderland (A) Wed 3/12

Arsenal (A) Wed 3/12 - Arse come into this on the back of WBA (A) Sat 29/11 and follow it with Stoke (A) Sat 6/12

Man Utd (H) Sat 6/12 - Utd come into this on the back of Stoke (H) Tues 2/12 and follow it with Liverpool (A) Sat 13/12

 

Burnley (A) Sat 13/12

Everton (H) Sat 20/12

C. Palace (A) Fri 26/12

 

Chelsea (H) Sun 28/12 - Chelsea come into this on the back of West Ham (H) Fri 26/12 and follow it with Tot (A) Thurs 1/1

Arsenal (H) Thurs 1/1 - Arsenal come into this on the back of West Ham (A) Sun 28/12 and follow it with Stoke (H) Sat 10/1

Man Utd (A) Sat 10/1 - Utd come into this on the back of Stoke (A) Thu 1/1 and follow it with QPR (A) Sat 17/1

 

So there's 3 blocks of 3, going hard, easier, hard. Its too early really to predict form at this time obv but just very prospectively I would say that the first thing to remember is that its tough for the big teams too, playing this many games in a short period, and they will mostly have the added pressure of CL. But I reckon we will still get something from the harder 6 games. Not all the big teams will be on form and the home games will help in those fixtures.

 

This season also we will also have a much deeper squad to cope with the demands of this time of year. I reckon we could swap the whole team just about and still be competitive with clubs around and below us.

 

Forster, Clyne, Fonte, Alderweirald, Bertrand, Spider, Wanyama, Davis, Tadic, Pelle and Boruc, Cork, Gardos, Yoshida, Targett, JWP, Reed, McQueen/Isgrove, Mane, Long, Gallagher/Rodriguez

 

Reorder as you like (I've really just tried to list the players so dont read into who i've put in which half too much), but you could pick two team sheets out of those players and juggle them to make two good teams.

 

Anyway jut to quickly state the targets to better next season.

First four games, last season: 5 points (WDLD). This season: 7 points (LDWW).

Next 8 games, last season: 17 points (WWWDWDWL). - Would be a realistic target to match this based on our fixtures.

9 winter/christmas games, last season: 8 points (LLDDLWLLW). - Surely we can improve on this. 2 points from the first five games we should be able to improve upon for a start.

 

Anyway just a long rambling post, apologies, just was looking at the fixtures and think we do have a good chance this year of improving on last year. Better than we could have hoped for I would argue. And the Christmas season, who the f*ck knows what will happen, but we did pretty poorly last season, so there's not much we'd need to do to improve that period! And I reckon we will.

[Rut]

So which 3 teams do you want to be drawn with in the Champions League next season?

 

Come on Man City! (but not too much, 2-0 will do)

Come on Villa!

 

We wanna go top.

[Pancake]

So which 3 teams do you want to be drawn with in the Champions League next season?

 

Come on Man City! (but not too much, 2-0 will do)

Come on Villa!

 

We wanna go top.

 

Surely if Citeh win we slip down the table though?

[Whitey Grandad]

Surely if Citeh win we slip down the table though?

 

Then goal difference?

[Rut]

Looking good so far. If we ain't gonna finish top 6 then who is? We're looking just as good as any one else. Plus still learning - after all it takes ages for new players to gel together. Can't wait until ours do.

 

Not worried about January. The rumours about us clinching a mega deal for a world superstar are all standing up to scrutiny so far. Exciting times. Nailed on.

[B Rabbit]

Looking good so far. If we ain't gonna finish top 6 then who is? We're looking just as good as any one else. Plus still learning - after all it takes ages for new players to gel together. Can't wait until ours do.

 

Not worried about January. The rumours about us clinching a mega deal for a world superstar are all standing up to scrutiny so far. Exciting times. Nailed on.

What rumours?

 

Friend of mine had a decent conversation with Les Reed last night and said one of the points made was that we are unlikely to sign anyone in January...J Rod back sooner rather than later (although may hold him back to make sure) and Morgan is going no where this season.

[Professor]

What rumours?

 

Friend of mine had a decent conversation with Les Reed last night and said one of the points made was that we are unlikely to sign anyone in January...J Rod back sooner rather than later (although may hold him back to make sure) and Morgan is going no where this season.

With the two signings successfully made on deadline day in Sept and JRod to return its hard to see any purpose in January signings unless something is forced by injury. If, unlikely as it may be, we were to get through the hard run of games pre-Xmas and still be in the top 4, I doubt the club would want to disrupt a squad that was performing well by bringing in a new face. On the other hand, if we do drop points against the clubs that can field hugely expensive world class players we couldn't compete with them on transfer fees so it's unlikely we could sign better than what we have. And what we have might well continue to perform better than expected.

[Avenue Saint]

We will finish 10th.

 

Chelsea

City

Arsenal

Liverpool

Spurs

Everton

United

Somebody Else

Not Us

Saints

Goalkeeper needed.

With the two signings successfully made on deadline day in Sept and JRod to return its hard to see any purpose in January signings unless something is forced by injury. If, unlikely as it may be, we were to get through the hard run of games pre-Xmas and still be in the top 4, I doubt the club would want to disrupt a squad that was performing well by bringing in a new face. On the other hand, if we do drop points against the clubs that can field hugely expensive world class players we couldn't compete with them on transfer fees so it's unlikely we could sign better than what we have. And what we have might well continue to perform better than expected.

 

What rumours?

 

Friend of mine had a decent conversation with Les Reed last night and said one of the points made was that we are unlikely to sign anyone in January...J Rod back sooner rather than later (although may hold him back to make sure) and Morgan is going no where this season.

[Dark Munster]

Agreed, a good solid back-up goalkeeper needed. Unless Boruc gets back in the pram, bringing his dummy and toys with him.

[SNSUN]

Meh 35 game winning run coming up. Title's ours people.

 

I WAS joking...

[Ohio Saint]

I WAS joking...

 

you promised me a 35 match unbeaten run, and I expect you to deliver! You parrot punching sicko.

[SNSUN]

you promised me a 35 match unbeaten run, and I expect you to deliver! You parrot punching sicko.

 

If it happens, I will divorce my wife and marry one of them.

[Rut]

Average start but still on course. Seriously though - most Prem teams ain't any better than Saints. Full stop. 6th is very realistic

 

Thought this after 3 games. Still think it after 10.

 

Or is it still 'early days'. If we were 2nd bottom this board would currently be full of 1000's of 'we're going down like I knew we would' posts.

 

Top 6. Rust-proof nails. Guaranteed.

[Bucks Saint]

Well done, seriously.

[SaintBobby]

Most bookies now have us at 4/7 to be in the top six and about 5/2 to be in the top four.

 

We're around 1/50 to finish in the top ten.

[Rut]

Well done, seriously.

 

Thanks. Bet you can't wait to bump this if we were to drop to 7th (we won't).

[Bearsy]

i remember thinking at the time the op was a bit pessimistic with 6th...

 

hat's off tho, rut, hope come end of season you can still rub your self in everyone's faces!

[SaffaSaint]

If we do finish the season in europe then may be good to have bedded a couple of new signings in and to help us over the edge

[Professor]

We have got to second spot by Koeman making minimal changes to the side. New signings could disrupt that so he may want to stick with what he's got, especially with JRod and JWP to come back. The problem is though, that we don't know how good the team is compared to the so-called 'top sides'.

We have beaten West Ham and Swansea, who are currently in the top six and we beat a depleted Arsenal in the League Cup but the real test is the 'Big' five in the League: - Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd. Some might add Tottenham to that list. So far, we only have the away defeats at Liverpool and Tottenham to go on, and its possible to see both of those being turned around in the home games. We all know the test isn't far away with those 3 games in 8 days coming up soon. If we aren't on a par with the Big Five (or Six) we won't stay in the top six to the end of the season but until we have more evidence, we simply don't know.

[Saint86]

Posters No.2 and No.3 have got some serious egg on their face I think, worse to come in May. Amazing that posters can still find stuff to be negative about after the 5 years we've had. Maybe they'd still be negative if we only got 2nd.

[Roger]

Crazy thing is we could improve with Mane settling in, Rodriguez coming back and hopefully JWP getting fit and showing his early season form. Like 2 new signings. A bench with JWP, Long, Mane, Cork, Gardos has to be stronger than anything we've ever had.

 

No way mane be on bench. He's superb.

[Jack]

I know we didn't come away with any points from trips to Anfield or WHL, but we were more than a match for Liverpool and really should've come away with a point from Spurs. We've been the better side in every game this season apart from Spurs, and I suppose that first half at Swansea. City and United haven't had too much joy at SMS in the last 2 seasons, we're a better side now and they're not. I expect us to lose at Arsenal but we've already upset them once this season.

[Saint_Tony]

We are certainly starting to get respect from the bookmakers. I just feel the city/arsenal/united week will tell us what we're capable of. We shouldn't fear any of them. 4 points from the next 2 and 3 defeats we could just about get away with to keep us in the top 6. Take 7/8 points, then we can start talking about top 6 and 4. People can keep calling me negative all they like, this is the best Saints side I've seen in 22 years. We are on the verge of something, but nothing more. It is still very early days, and as with last season, the real test will be against the sides who finished above us last season. Off the top of my head we took 9 points from 14 games (wins against Everton at home and Scousers away, draws at home to city, arsenal and man utd). That figure needs to be increased to around 15 or 16 points if we are going to be genuine top 4 challengers. The main positive is that we have a decent cushion already above the teams below. We probably need to average a bit over 1.5 points per game to get fourth.

[rick1976.4.38]

think we have to keep our feet on the ground here.

its been a great start but have to say December is a hard time for us,also with pelle only one boking away from a suspension,could be costly for us

[Bearsy]

think we have to keep our feet on the ground here.

its been a great start but have to say December is a hard time for us,also with pelle only one boking away from a suspension,could be costly for us

 

I'm not afraid of disappointment! I'd sooner spend the next few months thinking we're gonna be top 6 + cup final, and be let down, than spend my time thinking we're gonna fall short, despite the consolation prize of being proved right.

[Professor]

think we have to keep our feet on the ground here.

its been a great start but have to say December is a hard time for us,also with pelle only one boking away from a suspension,could be costly for us

 

It's true that losing key players at various time is severe test but we do have strength in depth that wasn't there last year, especially in midfield and defence. Even with Gallagher injured, we have Long able to cover as striker. If Pelle gets another card in the next few weeks he will be out for one game, so not a total disaster, and if he can get to 31 Dec without another yellow, the threat of suspension is then lifted unless he gets up to 10 cautions by mid-April. Goalkeeper seems to be the main problem because although we have the same reserve keepers as last year, Kelvin Davis is a year older and might struggle against Premier League forwards.

[doddisalegend]

think we have to keep our feet on the ground here.

its been a great start but have to say December is a hard time for us,also with pelle only one boking away from a suspension,could be costly for us

 

I can't wait I think that tough run of fixtures will put I great start in context. At the moment people are dismissing us because we haven't played any good teams so if we come out of those games with some decent points people might have to take us seriously. Even if we don't we are still good to achieve a similar finish to last year which, lets face it, most fans would have bitten your hand off for at the beginning of this season

[Minty]

All the talk about playing the 'big clubs' and judging us after we have done is masking one of the big factors of this season IMO.

 

We might very well lose to the 'big clubs' but (other than Chelsea) they are all dropping points to other lower clubs - some more than others! If we can be more consistent in beating the sides we finished above last season, get just the odd good result against a 'big club', then whilst the likes of Man City can lose to West Ham and Newcastle, we can still be up around the top 4 IMO...

 

It may sound obvious but it seems a lot of pundits and some fans are overlooking the fact that our position does not just depend on our own results, but the results of those around us. If they are dropping points in other games, and we drop points against them, then that cancels it out.

 

Although frankly, I've seen little to worry me from ANY side other than Chelsea so far. The Manc derby yesterday was devoid of any quality and Man City struggled to win even against ten men.

 

We should fear no one and just see what happens.

[Whitey Grandad]

All the talk about playing the 'big clubs' and judging us after we have done is masking one of the big factors of this season IMO.

 

We might very well lose to the 'big clubs' but (other than Chelsea) they are all dropping points to other lower clubs - some more than others! If we can be more consistent in beating the sides we finished above last season, get just the odd good result against a 'big club', then whilst the likes of Man City can lose to West Ham and Newcastle, we can still be up around the top 4 IMO...

 

It may sound obvious but it seems a lot of pundits and some fans are overlooking the fact that our position does not just depend on our own results, but the results of those around us. If they are dropping points in other games, and we drop points against them, then that cancels it out.

 

Although frankly, I've seen little to worry me from ANY side other than Chelsea so far. The Manc derby yesterday was devoid of any quality and Man City struggled to win even against ten men.

 

We should fear no one and just see what happens.

 

Quite so. These 'big' teams are all beneath us in the table for a good reason.

Edited 3 November, 2014 by Whitey Grandad
Bloody Apple auto-correct

[Saint_Ash]

Quite so. These 'big' teams are all beneath us in the table for a god reason.

 

Divine intervention?

[lifeintheslowlane]

I'm not afraid of disappointment! I'd sooner spend the next few months thinking we're gonna be top 6 + cup final, and be let down, than spend my time thinking we're gonna fall short, despite the consolation prize of being proved right.

 

Uncharacteristically profound I agree.

[Whitey Grandad]

Divine intervention?

 

They don't call us 'The Saints' for nothing.

[sadoldgit]

Still early days but 8th would be brilliant. If Mane is as good as we are led to believe and Jay gets back to something like his old form you would hope that we would be pushing a bit higher - but I think we need to wait to 10 games in before we get too excited. Looking good though!!!

 

Okay 10 games in and now I am getting excited. I think we can take any of the "big" teams and can't wait for these fixtures. I don't think for one minute that we will sustain 2nd but I do now think that we are very capable of a top 6th finish. That and a cup final would be amazing after the summer we had. January will be very interesting. Will them club consolidate or bring in some extra strength and try and push on? A lot depends on the progress of JRod I suspect. If Boruc goes would be bring in a new no 2? Whatever, just a great time to be a Saints fan.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Fairplay man, you seem to be right so far.

 

Think it's good that you're rightly being congratulated for sticking your neck out and turning out to be right. Looking very prescient at the moment.

[Mowgli]

No way mane be on bench. He's superb.

 

He's good and hopefully he will get better but you could say the same about Long and dobn't forget we have Rodriguez to come back. So I can see them rotating for the same sport to be honest. Same in midfield rotating Cork JWP and Wanyama depending on the opposition and what we need to break them down. It's nice to be in that position where we can rotate. It means players don't tire so qucikly and you don't get anyone getting disillusioned sitting on the bench week in week out. As others have said the fact that we have a core of 17/18 players that form the squad every week is good for our consistency. We certainly don't need signnig with the likes of Isgrove, Reed and Targett waiting for a chance.

[tpbury]

Just had a look on Statto.com to see who we lost against when we finished 2nd (83/4) : Villa, Luton, Norwich, Notts County, Leicester,Forest, Man Utd, Coventry. That's it.

 

Think we got draws or wins against all of them in the reverse fixture, so if we had a win and 2 draws from that losing list, we'd have been champions. Bugger.

[Patrick Bateman]

Just had a look on Statto.com to see who we lost against when we finished 2nd (83/4) : Villa, Luton, Norwich, Notts County, Leicester,Forest, Man Utd, Coventry. That's it.

 

Think we got draws or wins against all of them in the reverse fixture, so if we had a win and 2 draws from that losing list, we'd have been champions. Bugger.

 

Turn that away draw with Liverpool to a win and drawn one more would have done. Damn it.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983%E2%80%9384_Football_League

 

And we lost twice to Notts County!!

[The9]

In a competition where inches settle matches, it's amazing how much of this is down to the luck of how the fixtures fall.

 

Having made a point about squad sizes and how typical it was that we were playing all the top sides when CL and Europa League is on a break, I was pleased to realise Man City have Bayern immediately before playing us. If we can get 4 or 6 points from Leicester and Villa before that we'll still be 2nd and it'll be a genuine crunch game, with them not much better placed than us as we'll be rested for it.

 

But having said that, we'll then be shot into an away game with Arsenal 3 days later, with them having a couple of winnable aways with West Brom and Stoke either side - they'll be able to rotate a few in those matches, and we'll probably face their best available team. You'd expect that we'd be more fatigued as a result, too.

 

Man U can't come soon enough for me with their poor form, injuries and suspensions, and I've got no doubt that if we'd already played them we'd have beaten them. Pleased that they have Liverpool the week after as it might serve as a distraction for them, and shifting it to the Monday night could be critical in terms of our starting team's recovery after the previous week's games.

 

Burnley (A) Sat 13/12, Everton (H) Sat 20/12, C. Palace (A) Fri 26/12 should be manageable even with the likelihood of some starters missing by then, but only Pelle, Forster and the CBs are completely essential to success, we can cover most issues in midfield as we do have genuine depth there.

 

Chelsea (H) Sun 28/12 could be worse, yes they'll be able to rotate and it's only 2 days after the Palace game, but West Ham are a physical side who could leave a mark on them and Spurs will give Chelsea a hard time shortly after, so they might gamble with team selection against us.

 

Then it's Arsenal (H) on NY Day, again only a few days' recovery and the starters will be flagging, but Arsenal also have West Ham just before.

 

The FA Cup third round draw might be a big factor in the sort of side we need to put out by now, a top side would be a real problem - best case scenario would be Arsenal and next opponents Man U (10th Jan) both facing tricky Prem games impacting their selections against Saints, with us at home in a match where we could field the best part of a reserve team.

 

If we come out of that lot having played our best side in every match and without fatigue or impact injuries I will be absolutely stunned, and if we're in the top 6 at THIS point it's ours to throw away.

[Tony F]

Looking at our fixture list again, we really have a pretty good one for our situation. Yes we have the difficult Christmas period, but, we have such an amazing opportunity to build up a real head of steam over the next 8 league games [sWA (A), QPR (H), TOT (A), SUN (H), STO (H), HUL (A), LEI (H), AVL (A)] before we hit City at home. Apart from the Tottenham away game realistic aims would be to win every one of these matches.

 

This is starting to look like a very good, prophetic, post...... the last 6 matches having gone as "forecast" (ie winning all but the Spurs match).

[Whitey Grandad]

Turn that away draw with Liverpool to a win and drawn one more would have done. Damn it.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983%E2%80%9384_Football_League

 

And we lost twice to Notts County!!

 

We would still have been banned from Europe.

[Lets B Avenue]

Turn that away draw with Liverpool to a win and drawn one more would have done. Damn it.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983%E2%80%9384_Football_League

 

And we lost twice to Notts County!!

 

No we didn't. Beat them 3-1 away on a Thursday night in the last game of the season to clinch 2nd place.

 

We would still have been banned from Europe.

 

Wrong also. We played Hamburg in the 1st round of the UEFA Cup. Heisel was in May 85.

[SaintTex]

with 9 matches to go to the halfway point in the season, I think what Koeman needs to focus on is taking care of business and getting the 12 points from Leicester, Villa, CP and Burnley.

 

Even if we get no points against the other 5 matches (Chelsea, City, ManU, Arsenal and Everton) that still leaves us:

 

22 points + 12 points = 34 points at the halfway point.

 

now I do think we can get some points against those 5 clubs, but even if those become 5 losses, we will be in good shape for a top 6 finish with beating the other 4 mentioned above.

 

If we can "steal" 6 points from those 5 clubs and get to 40 points by the halfway point, that would be brilliant.

 

 

if it becomes a 2 horse race between City and Chelsea, I figure

 

65 points get us a top 6 finish

75 points get us a top 4 finish

[Saint_Tony]

Interesting to see that after 12/13 games last season, only Arsenal had more than 24 points. You'd think that we should be on at least 25 after 13. 4 or 6 points from the next 2 and we're in a position where we can get away with a dip in form and remain top 4 by the turn of the year.

[Whitey Grandad]

No we didn't. Beat them 3-1 away on a Thursday night in the last game of the season to clinch 2nd place.

 

 

 

Wrong also. We played Hamburg in the 1st round of the UEFA Cup. Heisel was in May 85.

 

Fair enough. So which year was it that we couldn't qualify for Europe because of the ban on English clbs?

[SNSUN]

All I hear at work at the moment is 'enjoy it while it lasts' and 'you'll come crashing down the table when you play the big boys'. Granted we haven't played the Manchesters, Arsenal and Chelsea yet, but who's to say we'll pick up no points against them? I think, on our day, we're more than a match for any of them.

 

And I didn't think I'd be saying that on the eve of this season.

[M271]

My feeling is that overall we are capable of getting an average of at least 1.5 points per game for the rest of the season this would mean us getting an end of season total of (28 x 1.5)+22 = 64 points.

Over the last 10 seasons 64 points has given a final league position of 4th once, 5th 3 times, 6th 5 times and 7th once, so 5th or 6th is the most likely final placing.

For the last 10 seasons the 4th placed side has got 61,67,68,76,72,70,68,69,73,79 points.

For Daleks benefit the last 10 seasons 40 points has been enough to avoid relegation so only 18 points needed for safety or 0.6428571 points per game from now on.

[Lets B Avenue]

Fair enough. So which year was it that we couldn't qualify for Europe because of the ban on English clbs?

 

 

 

 

Heisel was in May 85.

 

After that. Until 1990.