The mess we're in

[charliemiller]

I have now got to the stage where i dont care how many players go , if they dont want to play for Saints then feck off

 

I am actually in a bizarre way excited by the challenge ahead , wouldnt it be great kick in the nuts for the prima donnas that have left if we actually dug in and had a successful season.

 

Time for the Saints Spirit in adversity to come out ...COYR

[Window Cleaner]

I have now got to the stage where i dont care how many players go , if they dont want to play for Saints then feck off

 

I am actually in a bizarre way excited by the challenge ahead , wouldnt it be great kick in the nuts for the prima donnas that have left if we actually dug in and had a successful season.

 

Time for the Saints Spirit in adversity to come out ...COYR

 

But they did want to play for Saints, they just didn't want to wait until the forthcoming train wreck happened. If we could go back to last January and take a parallel path then I'm sure most things would be entirely different. Shaw would be gone and the receipts spent on strenghtening the side, that's about all. The players obviously knew what was happening, didn't fancy it and chose to leave.

[Viking Warrior]

It's only the neurotic on here that need to get a grip

What's happened has happened

 

I'm with Charlie miller and looking forward to the future .

I don't blame the board but I do blame the players who have left,the agents and the liverpools of this world

But it doesn't help when the usual suspects on here constantly perpetrate constant doom and gloom

Start getting behind the team and the future of the club

 

 

Now we have batman mocking guan and that he is in the know

 

Since when has a cook on a sub been in the know

Oh I recollect he left the service and is now running a burger near St Mary's

[Smirking_Saint]

It's only the neurotic on here that need to get a grip

What's happened has happened

 

I'm with Charlie miller and looking forward to the future .

I don't blame the board but I do blame the players who have left,the agents and the liverpools of this world

But it doesn't help when the usual suspects on here constantly perpetrate constant doom and gloom

Start getting behind the team and the future of the club

 

 

Now we have batman mocking guan and that he is in the know

 

Since when has a cook on a sub been in the know

Oh I recollect he left the service and is now running a burger near St Mary's

 

So everyone else is neurotic as they dont share your positive viewpoint ? Guan is the messiah and crabby is a billy bull****ter ?

 

Personally Ive tried to read everyones input and attempted to remain objective and on balance I think the negative murmers right now ultimately look more likely.

 

Your entitled to your opinion but climb off that high horse, we already have adrian as the patronising **** we dont need another

[charliemiller]

Its like when you find out your girlfriend has been playing away , you gutted and hurt , your angry and finish with here and the affection you had with her .

 

But secretly your excited to see what your next one looks like !!!!

[saint_ed]

Here's an interesting thought (and not one of my own to be honest, but from a fellow fan).

 

What if Markus' original investment in Saints had a potential exit planned at this point anyway? All investments usually have an exit strategy built in to them before they're even complete, so what if Kat is simply exercising part of a plan that her father may have already had in place?

 

Cortese was an investment banker who advised Markus on investments... who is to say what might have happened had he still been here?

 

This is exactly what I posted yesterday. I think we are assuming that Markus was here forever more, I simply don't believe that to be the case and the well documented 5 year plan was just that. Build the club over 5 years and sell for profit.

[S-Clarke]

This is exactly what I posted yesterday. I think we are assuming that Markus was here forever more, I simply don't believe that to be the case and the well documented 5 year plan was just that. Build the club over 5 years and sell for profit.

 

It's probably very valid, but I'm sure he'd have hoped it was managed a hell of a lot better than it is being managed right now.

[JoeShmoe]

The club REALLY need to get players in ASAP since we are now in a massive downward spiral that will get worse when Morgan and J-Rod go

 

If that doesnt happen this week i think we will likely know where we are really at

[saint_ed]

It's probably very valid, but I'm sure he'd have hoped it was managed a hell of a lot better than it is being managed right now.

 

I'm not sure anyone could argue with that.

[Sour Mash]

This is exactly what I posted yesterday. I think we are assuming that Markus was here forever more, I simply don't believe that to be the case and the well documented 5 year plan was just that. Build the club over 5 years and sell for profit.

Was thinking exactly the same thing myself. He might have managed things a bit smoother, but he could well have expected a healthy return of profit as well once the original 5 year scheme was up.

[Marsdinho]

Was thinking exactly the same thing myself. He might have managed things a bit smoother, but he could well have expected a healthy return of profit as well once the original 5 year scheme was up.

 

What about the "catching the bug" factor...

[Joensuu]

What makes you think that money has been taken out of the club?

 

To clarify, I don't think money has yet been removed. I assume, and could well be wrong, that this is the owner's intention. I struggle to interpret the current situation in any other way, although I do hope Guan is right.

[The9]

Its like when you find out your girlfriend has been playing away , you gutted and hurt , your angry and finish with here and the affection you had with her .

 

But secretly your excited to see what your next one looks like !!!!

 

That is an absolutely hopeless analogy.

[Whitey Grandad]

To clarify, I don't think money has yet been removed. I assume, and could well be wrong, that this is the owner's intention. I struggle to interpret the current situation in any other way, although I do hope Guan is right.

 

There are other interpretations, many of which have been presented elsewhere on here. The next few weeks should reveal more. Taking large lumps of money out us not that straightforward.

[Whitey Grandad]

Its like when you find out your girlfriend has been playing away , you gutted and hurt , your angry and finish with here and the affection you had with her .

 

But secretly your excited to see what your next one looks like !!!!

 

If you follow some people's advice you should have had a new one lined up ready, just in case.

 

I hasten to add that my wife and I have been together since we were both sixteen and so I have absolutely no experience of this type of situation.

[Grey Crab]

Its like when you find out your girlfriend has been playing away , you gutted and hurt , your angry and finish with here and the affection you had with her .

 

But secretly your excited to see what your next one looks like !!!!

 

And she turns out to be a dragon, but a series of events leads you to be stuck with her for the rest of your sad, miserable life. All that time thinking of your lovely ex who goes on to a greater happiness that you could ever have given her.

[The9]

To clarify, I don't think money has yet been removed. I assume, and could well be wrong, that this is the owner's intention. I struggle to interpret the current situation in any other way, although I do hope Guan is right.

 

The theory that the value of the club is being lowered by selling off the players to make it more affordable for a sale seems logical. But then so do the "crippling bonuses to keep players who got to 8th" and "massive profit on players to be reinvested" theories.

[kpturner]

Its like when you find out your girlfriend has been playing away , you gutted and hurt , your angry and finish with here and the affection you had with her .

 

But secretly your excited to see what your next one looks like !!!!

What "next one" ?

[Heisenberg]

It took 5 years to build a decent team and only 5 weeks to destroy it!

 

Whatever the whys and wheres its depressing to watch

 

We need some decent signings now please SFC!!

[Webby]

I have now got to the stage where i dont care how many players go , if they dont want to play for Saints then feck off

 

 

I agree, kind of, but the thing is, they DID want to play for Saints, now they don't, so why? What's happened? Someone, somewhere has ducked up.

[The9]

I agree, kind of, but the thing is, they DID want to play for Saints, now they don't, so why? What's happened? Someone, somewhere has ducked up.

 

They were all happy to play for us until they got a better offer, how is that difficult to understand?

[saint_ed]

They were all happy to play for us until they got a better offer, how is that difficult to understand?

 

A lot of them came out and said its imperative we keep MoPo, if we don't then players would consider their futures. Is the thought of Southampton without him really that bad....clearly it is. THAT is where our questions need to be directed as it clearly wasn't a problem before MoPo. There is a hell of a lot of smoke about lack of communication, broken promises, payments etc.

[Webby]

They were all happy to play for us until they got a better offer, how is that difficult to understand?

 

You think none of them got other offers before?

[The9]

It took 5 years to build a decent team and only 5 weeks to destroy it!

 

Whatever the whys and wheres its depressing to watch

 

We need some decent signings now please SFC!!

 

5 years eh?

 

Let's take the team that played the first match after the last transfer window closed as the benchmark and the dates of their first team League debuts:

 

A Boruc (Sep 2012) - 2 years

C Chambers (Aug 2013) 1 year

L Shaw (Nov 2012) - 2 years

J Fonte (Jan 2010) - 4.5 years

M Yoshida (Aug 2012) - 2 years

S Davis (Aug 2012) - 2 years

A Lallana (Aug 2006) - 8 years

M Schneiderlin (Aug 2008 ) - 6 years

J Rodriguez (Aug 2012) - 2 years

V Wanyama (Aug 2013) - 1 year

R Lambert (Aug 2009) - 5 years

 

So actually, only one player who was with the club 5 years, 2 others with 6 and 8 years since first appearances, and the vast majority (7 of the 11) being with the club for at most 2 years. So not really 5 years to build, was it? Pretty much 2 years to build excepting the ones who we had before the Championship, and no-one's going to tell me Lallana, Lambert and Schneiderlin were made Prem-quality players in L1 or before 2011.

 

In fact the average (mean) time is just over 3 years even including those long-term players.

[Wes Tender]

But they did want to play for Saints, they just didn't want to wait until the forthcoming train wreck happened.

 

This is a ridiculous thing to say. If the players wanted to stay and did so, then there wouldn't be any train crash. We would remain pretty well where were were. The train crash is caused purely by the departing players and the more that go, the harder it will be to avoid it. These players are leaving for one reason alone. Pure naked greed.

[Batman]

This is a ridiculous thing to say. If the players wanted to stay and did so, then there wouldn't be any train crash. We would remain pretty well where were were. The train crash is caused purely by the departing players and the more that go, the harder it will be to avoid it. These players are leaving for one reason alone. Pure naked greed.

 

yeah, we must have the greediest players ever. I mean, those everton players obviously are not interested in money,

you know, Stones, barkley, coleman and the like

[saint_ed]

These players are leaving for one reason alone. Pure naked greed.

 

I have to disagree that it is the sole motivation for all that is happening. There is evidently something seriously wrong to have alienated a whole squad, there is enough murmurings of discontent to suggest that.

[Viking Warrior]

Smirking saint I didn't call everyone here neurotic I alluding to specific posters and you know the ones I refer to

 

I assume dell days is busy enjoying his demob from the services and and is now determined to be one of the forums genuine itk's

Are he and crabs the new LS and St David ? Of yesteryear

I'm intrigued with guans silence of late has he been gagged or is it because there is no news to report at present

[Viking Warrior]

I listened to sky a short while ago . They had some express journo on

He used the the term accidental owner re KL , has he plagiarised that term from this forum? Or elsewhere

[Wes Tender]

A lot of them came out and said its imperative we keep MoPo, if we don't then players would consider their futures. Is the thought of Southampton without him really that bad....clearly it is. THAT is where our questions need to be directed as it clearly wasn't a problem before MoPo. There is a hell of a lot of smoke about lack of communication, broken promises, payments etc.

 

Again, ridiculous to believe that players are leaving just because Pochettino left and also because they might believe that Koeman would not be capable of doing as good a job as him. No, the players find it a very convenient excuse to take the massive amounts of wonga offered to them by the glory clubs and maybe it assuages their consciences not having to accept that they are the very rats in danger of sinking the ship by doing so.

[The9]

You think none of them got other offers before?

 

Offers from top 6 clubs back when they were playing for a bottom half Prem team? No. Maybe some in January, but at that stage no-one knew what was happening with our League position and it's a lot easier to leave a club when you're not in the midst of immediate success.

 

Lambert certainly didn't get one from Liverpool before January or he'd have gone there immediately.

Shaw and Chambers were in their first full seasons, Shaw would have been sounded out but probably would have left even if we were in Europe and Chambers probably wouldn't have had offers until very recently.

Lallana lacked consistency before this season just gone, might have had someone like Hull or Swansea sniffing around, but no better. You wonder why he didn't leave for Everton if they had been interested as he was a fan - but they're not in the Champions League.

Lovren didn't even play for us before last season and very few players leave after 6 months anyway as they miss out on loyalty payments.

[The9]

Again, ridiculous to believe that players are leaving just because Pochettino left and also because they might believe that Koeman would not be capable of doing as good a job as him. No, the players find it a very convenient excuse to take the massive amounts of wonga offered to them by the glory clubs and maybe it assuages their consciences not having to accept that they are the very rats in danger of sinking the ship by doing so.

 

Totally agree with that. The upheaval has provided an opportunity for players to jump ship when most probably would have stayed in the event of the status quo being maintained (along with the meaty bonuses being sold to them by Cortese).

[Wes Tender]

yeah, we must have the greediest players ever. I mean, those everton players obviously are not interested in money,

you know, Stones, barkley, coleman and the like

 

Have they had such offers from Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal? Sorry, I didn't see them. But go on believing that they wouldn't leave if the right offers came in if you like.

[Batman]

Totally agree with that. The upheaval has provided an opportunity for players to jump ship when most probably would have stayed in the event of the status quo being maintained (along with the meaty bonuses being sold to them by Cortese).

 

is this the new trendy thing to say...?

[The9]

yeah, we must have the greediest players ever. I mean, those everton players obviously are not interested in money,

you know, Stones, Barkley, Coleman and the like

 

Check that list this time next year and see how many of them are still there. "And the like" refers to "no-one else" as well.

[Dig Dig]

Have they had such offers from Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal? Sorry, I didn't see them. But go on believing that they wouldn't leave if the right offers came in if you like.

 

Clubs don't generally bid for players unless they feel there is a good chance of a club selling them the player. A bid is actually fairly advanced. Clubs seem to be aware that we are open for business and easy to deal with so long as they give us a good price.

 

Everton will have likely dealt with enquiries fairly assertively as their on field aspirations are important to them.

[BotleySaint]

I have to disagree that it is the sole motivation for all that is happening. There is evidently something seriously wrong to have alienated a whole squad, there is enough murmurings of discontent to suggest that.

Maybe, but are they really so immature that they can't rise above it? Where is the grit and determination, the loyalty to keep going no matter what? To stand up and be counted. Nope, they've all agreed to go regardless of the impact of it.

[Depressed of Shirley]

Check that list this time next year and see how many of them are still there. "And the like" refers to "no-one else" as well.

 

Barkley will be at either Citeh or United before the end of August I think, and wouldn't be surprised if Stones has gone as well. Everton will be as powerless as us if the p[layers agent hears of a £120k per week deal for his client.

[Window Cleaner]

Maybe, but are they really so immature that they can't rise above it? Where is the grit and determination, the loyalty to keep going no matter what? To stand up and be counted. Nope, they've all agreed to go regardless of the impact of it.

 

they are professional footballers, career span at top level perhaps 8 years,if you start getting stuck in non-achievers your career prospects just suddenly disappear. Ask players stuck at Villa or Newcastle. Not in demand really and they end up taking backwards moves to get out of the spiral.

[trousers]

I am actually in a bizarre way excited by the challenge ahead

 

I've felt the same whenever we've found ourselves supposedly in meltdown....when we went into administration, I was excited to see what the outcome would be....when we got relegated to League 1, I was excited at how we would handle that....when Pardew was sacked, I was excited at what would happen next.....same when Adkins was sacked....

 

Whilst it seems somewhat perverse to be 'excited' by adversity, things usually work out OK eventually....that's why I'm still really looking forward to next season, just as much as I would have been had we kept the same team together and added even more quality. We may fail abysmally....or we might surprise a few people...again....

 

I laugh in the face of adversity

[Window Cleaner]

Barkley will be at either Citeh or United before the end of August I think, and wouldn't be surprised if Stones has gone as well. Everton will be as powerless as us if the p[layers agent hears of a £120k per week deal for his client.

 

Tottenham were after Stones, gone quiet, probably has something better in view.

[Gingeletiss]

is this the new trendy thing to say...?

 

Beats the crap you are trotting out of late, I guess you study at the School of Hypo!

[Batman]

Beats the crap you are trotting out of late, I guess you study at the School of Hypo!

 

you can say that all you like mate, but its reality

[Whitey Grandad]

I have to disagree that it is the sole motivation for all that is happening. There is evidently something seriously wrong to have alienated a whole squad, there is enough murmurings of discontent to suggest that.

 

No, it's money. You're confusing being a fan with being a professional footballer. None of them would have left for less money, not even for the same.

[badgerx16]

Is anybody looking forward to the matchtime threads ?

[DT]

Scousehampton 12 Celtichampton 0

[Willo]

Steve; my view on your querying why the player sales as they surely lower business momentum and hence potential overall club sale value is that i don't think many would have valued the players we have sold at the prices we got for them.

KL has in effect probably converted £65m or less of on-paper assets into £100m of actual monetised cash/sold assets plus reduced the wage bill to assets / income ratio immensely. Great sale prices. It also ties in with playing more ( cheap wages) youth in the team. The overall effect is of a leaner club with all the financial (not playing) KPI's looking nice and healthy for the next buyer.

That bit at least is obvious to me as I've been part of a business to which that happened in exact same way. Its not a rocket science thing. Selling key assets under duress makes for lower achieved prices. Selling them in this way makes for premium prices. The net effect- possibly us £35-50M more to KL - all the difference between successful investment and not frankly for her in that world.

 

Valuations are usually a combination of asset values and the future earnings of a company, not just the value of the assets/cash. So i do agree that the (downward) momentum of the club could more than offset the nicely inflated player sales.

 

I think of it like this: If i were buying Man Utd i would have 99.9% certainty that the Premier League TV money will be received for the next 3 years or more. Nobody expects them to be relegated in the next 3 years because of their squad (and the presumed positive gradual evolution of it). Even a disastrous season by their standards never even closely thretened relegation last year. Therefore, it follows, that i will factor in the 3 years of PL TV money into my valuation for Man Utd.

 

Now think of Saints. Maybe we got £30-£40m more of cash than the players were worth as assets. BUT, i would argue that under the previous squad (and the presumed positive gradual evolution of it) we would have very likely been a premier league club for the next three years - not as guaranteed as the Man Utd example, but certainly much, much more guaranteed than now. So it follows, that as a (rational) buyer, I no longer factor in 3 years of PL TV money into my valuation of Saints.

 

I think the risk of relegation from a weaker squad, and the loss of years of PL TV money, more than offfsets the "added value" of getting good cash for our players. It's for this reason that i don't quite see what KL's strategy is with regards to selling. Maybe she hopes that she can find a buyer who doesn't know that relegation exists in the premier league...

[syd_barrett_saint]

This thread (more specifically Steve Grant's comments) has been getting some attention on the soccer message board over at Reddit...

 

[stevegrant]

It's for this reason that i don't quite see what KL's strategy is with regards to selling. Maybe she hopes that she can find a buyer who doesn't know that relegation exists in the premier league...

Or perhaps there genuinely is no master plan to sell. Purslow/Krueger could well be "investigating opportunities" using their connections, but that doesn't necessarily mean there's any sort of desperation to cash in at this stage. If she's said "see if anyone would be stupid enough to pay me £300m", then by all means they're looking to find a buyer, but only someone who's prepared to pay massively over the odds, in which case KL gets into "well, I'd be stupid not to sell for that price" territory.

[Giordano]

Valuations are usually a combination of asset values and the future earnings of a company, not just the value of the assets/cash. So i do agree that the (downward) momentum of the club could more than offset the nicely inflated player sales.

 

I think of it like this: If i were buying Man Utd i would have 99.9% certainty that the Premier League TV money will be received for the next 3 years or more. Nobody expects them to be relegated in the next 3 years because of their squad (and the presumed positive gradual evolution of it). Even a disastrous season by their standards never even closely thretened relegation last year. Therefore, it follows, that i will factor in the 3 years of PL TV money into my valuation for Man Utd.

 

Now think of Saints. Maybe we got £30-£40m more of cash than the players were worth as assets. BUT, i would argue that under the previous squad (and the presumed positive gradual evolution of it) we would have very likely been a premier league club for the next three years - not as guaranteed as the Man Utd example, but certainly much, much more guaranteed than now. So it follows, that as a (rational) buyer, I no longer factor in 3 years of PL TV money into my valuation of Saints.

 

I think the risk of relegation from a weaker squad, and the loss of years of PL TV money, more than offfsets the "added value" of getting good cash for our players. It's for this reason that i don't quite see what KL's strategy is with regards to selling. Maybe she hopes that she can find a buyer who doesn't know that relegation exists in the premier league...

 

Totally agree with that - but its a matter of opinion what our % chances of not achieving that 3 years of TV money will be - much will depend on how much is reinvested in players plus Lady Luck. Overall we not loading the dice in our favor that's clear and the task gets harder every departure. It IS clear that we are more likely to get relegated than at the end of last season because of this risky monetising business activity. And that in turn will reduce the club valuation today anyway as it must be factored in as you say. How do I know? Ask the experts at Paddy Power, Spreadex etc.