Beliefs, myths, facts and speculation....

[Frank's cousin]

We are all obviously entitled to our own opinions, and most respect that. But surely when forming these we should be basing them on the facts / truths we do know, rather than continuing to peddle myth as facts?

 

What do we really know about some of the so called popular beliefs?

 

1. 'Cortese was on a spending Spree that was unsustainable'

 

All we can go on is the last published accounts and the current liabilities indicated in the various business overview sites.

 

The last published accounts showed a loss of 7mil before player trading. for a club only just back in the Prem, would say that is not too bad. The BBC published a comment from an independent financial expert that our accounts were in good shape... Especially when compared to others in the prem.

 

So what of the 60mil liabilities we have seen published by the various business intel sites? Well we know that 27 mil is Transfer fees and that the academy is costing 30 mil, so it's reasonable to assume this makes up the majority of these liabilities.. We can not say this is fact, but it's a reasonable assumption, as we may have borrowed from either KL or the BVI to pay early instalments of the building costs whilst waiting for prem revenues.

 

IF that is indeed the case! then is this unsustainable? I don't believe so. Hofstatter also said we paid back 20mil plus last season in transfer fees, so given the huge jump in revenue, it would be safe to assume we could afford 30mil in repayments over the next two seasons to cover this... Even with improved contracts for some key players.....

 

IMHO, the conclusion based on what we do know suggests there was no previous mad spending.

 

2. So why would Cortese want more from KL?

 

Here we are speculating. It's clear Cortese wanted us to progress rapidly. That would require additional funding... Given the quality we had, perhaps not as much as some have suggested, but given that if KL were to cover the academy costs, we could use 30 mil to add to the squad, this could be the impasse they reached, given that this would be fine under FFP. was

 

Of course, KL is entitled NOT to have to spend her cash, no argument there, And I like most want to see a sustainable club, rather than one always relying on a rich owner to make up annual shortfalls. But I do think we ARE sustainable if prepared to accept minimal transfer activity without sales. What Cortese was after was based on our situation of having potential to go even higher right now, given the promise of our starlets, but we needed a bit more... The shame is that for some reason, hey have fallen out, and sadly that falling out is to the detriment of the club....

 

3.' KL is asset stripping'

 

No, simply not the case. Speculation again, but what she may be doing is selling to remove the liabilities from the books. To me this suggests she may look to sell when the club has no liabilities as this would in theory command a better price than if we had certain players but a debt...why? Because the players are not assets, their value reduces over the length of their contracts to zero, and their value is determined only by what someone is willing to pay... So from business perspective we have more value without debt... May sound obvious, but would explain the apparent willingness to let 3 -5 key players leave.

 

What seems odd though is that they have not factored in the reduction in value of the club, if we struggle or get relegated as a result of these sales.... So the question remains open as to what her intentions are.

 

 

4. We will struggle next season

 

Well of course it all depends on what is actually sold and who we bring in, BUT let's be honest, even if we sell for 60mil and buy 60 mil, we will not start next season in as good a shape as we finished this one. The risk of some of that spend being wasted is always there, no ones fault, but transfers are all a risk. Next is the simple fact we have done so well because our spine has been together for 3plus years. Trying to integrate 3-5 new players into the squad will take a while.... And if the new manager is one whose is unable or unwilling to continue the pressing and passing game we have developed since Nigel's day, then we are are likely to be strugglers....

 

 

5. 'The board are clueless'

 

Naive possibly, but seems clear they know what they are doing, just that as fans we don't like it.... And there is nothing we can do about it.... And Krueger talks a load of she it'd, that much we do know, given that his credibility is now zero, the sooner he disappears up his own arsehole the better IMHO.

[Saint Charlie]

Too long as ever.

[benjii]

Yeah

[Block34]

Two people here don't like to listen to or read reasoned thought about what is likely the truth of what is happening.

 

Good post Frank's cousin.

[Chicken With A Banjo]

Speculation: Osvaldo was not keen to come to Southampton but reluctantly joined once it was clear we were the only ones willing to pay the fee. The only thing attracting him to the offer was a promise of future champions league football. When Cortese handed his notice in shortly after Osvaldo signed, Osvaldo felt betrayed and his whole relationship with the project was soured. Scrap was his way of forcing an exit. Club did not sack him because they recognise that they played a part in creating the situation.

[Chicken With A Banjo]

Speculation: When it became clear we were chasing Alexander Buttner in the Summer 2012, Luke Shaw and his agent kicked up a fuss on the basis that Buttner would block Shaw's route to the first team. Manchester united expressed their interest in Shaw at this point. Saints decided to drop the buttner deal and offered shae the left back spot. United subsequently stepped in to purchase buttner with the intention of sweetening a future deal for Shaw.

[ratio_decidendi]

Speculation: When it became clear we were chasing Alexander Buttner in the Summer 2012, Luke Shaw and his agent kicked up a fuss on the basis that Buttner would block Shaw's route to the first team. Manchester united expressed their interest in Shaw at this point. Saints decided to drop the buttner deal and offered shae the left back spot. United subsequently stepped in to purchase buttner with the intention of sweetening a future deal for Shaw.

 

 

I've never heard that speculation and am definitely surprised it exists. Do people really assume that clubs negotiate or are in contact with each other to the extent that they conspire in this way?

[adrian lord]

Board not naive or clueless. They know perfectly well what they are doing....

[Chicken With A Banjo]

I've never heard that speculation and am definitely surprised it exists. Do people really assume that clubs negotiate or are in contact with each other to the extent that they conspire in this way?

I'm not speculating that there was a conspiracy, I'm suggesting that Manchester United decided to play the long game and took a strategic gamble on Buttner, relying on the fact that we had probably gone to a lot of effort profiling buttner for our team and would retain our interest in future. They were also of course relying on shaws future progression into an outstanding left back. Plus they got some reasonable cover at left back in the meantime. It remains to be seen whether we are still interested in buttner, Adkins has gone, pochettino changed our direction and buttner hasn't covered himself in glory at united.

[ratio_decidendi]

I'm not speculating that there was a conspiracy, I'm suggesting that Manchester United decided to play the long game and took a strategic gamble on Buttner, relying on the fact that we had probably gone to a lot of effort profiling buttner for our team and would retain our interest in future. They were also of course relying on shaws future progression into an outstanding left back. Plus they got some reasonable cover at left back in the meantime. It remains to be seen whether we are still interested in buttner, Adkins has gone, pochettino changed our direction and buttner hasn't covered himself in glory at united.

 

Okay. I thought you were merely pointing out that this speculation existed. I didn't know you were expressing your own opinion.

[Faz]

We are all obviously entitled to our own opinions, and most respect that. But surely when forming these we should be basing them on the facts / truths we do know, rather than continuing to peddle myth as facts?

 

What do we really know about some of the so called popular beliefs?

 

1. 'Cortese was on a spending Spree that was unsustainable'

 

All we can go on is the last published accounts and the current liabilities indicated in the various business overview sites.

 

The last published accounts showed a loss of 7mil before player trading. for a club only just back in the Prem, would say that is not too bad. The BBC published a comment from an independent financial expert that our accounts were in good shape... Especially when compared to others in the prem.

 

So what of the 60mil liabilities we have seen published by the various business intel sites? Well we know that 27 mil is Transfer fees and that the academy is costing 30 mil, so it's reasonable to assume this makes up the majority of these liabilities.. We can not say this is fact, but it's a reasonable assumption, as we may have borrowed from either KL or the BVI to pay early instalments of the building costs whilst waiting for prem revenues.

 

IF that is indeed the case! then is this unsustainable? I don't believe so. Hofstatter also said we paid back 20mil plus last season in transfer fees, so given the huge jump in revenue, it would be safe to assume we could afford 30mil in repayments over the next two seasons to cover this... Even with improved contracts for some key players.....

 

IMHO, the conclusion based on what we do know suggests there was no previous mad spending.

 

2. So why would Cortese want more from KL?

 

Here we are speculating. It's clear Cortese wanted us to progress rapidly. That would require additional funding... Given the quality we had, perhaps not as much as some have suggested, but given that if KL were to cover the academy costs, we could use 30 mil to add to the squad, this could be the impasse they reached, given that this would be fine under FFP. was

 

Of course, KL is entitled NOT to have to spend her cash, no argument there, And I like most want to see a sustainable club, rather than one always relying on a rich owner to make up annual shortfalls. But I do think we ARE sustainable if prepared to accept minimal transfer activity without sales. What Cortese was after was based on our situation of having potential to go even higher right now, given the promise of our starlets, but we needed a bit more... The shame is that for some reason, hey have fallen out, and sadly that falling out is to the detriment of the club....

 

3.' KL is asset stripping'

 

No, simply not the case. Speculation again, but what she may be doing is selling to remove the liabilities from the books. To me this suggests she may look to sell when the club has no liabilities as this would in theory command a better price than if we had certain players but a debt...why? Because the players are not assets, their value reduces over the length of their contracts to zero, and their value is determined only by what someone is willing to pay... So from business perspective we have more value without debt... May sound obvious, but would explain the apparent willingness to let 3 -5 key players leave.

 

What seems odd though is that they have not factored in the reduction in value of the club, if we struggle or get relegated as a result of these sales.... So the question remains open as to what her intentions are.

 

 

4. We will struggle next season

 

Well of course it all depends on what is actually sold and who we bring in, BUT let's be honest, even if we sell for 60mil and buy 60 mil, we will not start next season in as good a shape as we finished this one. The risk of some of that spend being wasted is always there, no ones fault, but transfers are all a risk. Next is the simple fact we have done so well because our spine has been together for 3plus years. Trying to integrate 3-5 new players into the squad will take a while.... And if the new manager is one whose is unable or unwilling to continue the pressing and passing game we have developed since Nigel's day, then we are are likely to be strugglers....

 

 

5. 'The board are clueless'

 

Naive possibly, but seems clear they know what they are doing, just that as fans we don't like it.... And there is nothing we can do about it.... And Krueger talks a load of she it'd, that much we do know, given that his credibility is now zero, the sooner he disappears up his own arsehole the better IMHO.

 

I like the way you've added your own beliefs to the so called popular beliefs.

[Ohio Saint]

I like the way you've added your own beliefs to the so called popular beliefs.

 

Half-way through point 5 he totally lost the plot and resumed the normal standard for this forum. It made I larf a bit.

[CB Fry]

I like the way you've added your own beliefs to the so called popular beliefs.

 

"Classic" Franko. Nice pious know-it-all-tone to make out that his arse aching rambling is not "myth" and "speculation". Perish the thought. That's what the others on the forum do. No our learned friend. He's, like, so clever.

 

Anyone read all of it?

[Frank's cousin]

"Classic" Franko. Nice pious know-it-all-tone to make out that his arse aching rambling is not "myth" and "speculation". Perish the thought. That's what the others on the forum do. No our learned friend. He's, like, so clever.

 

Anyone read all of it?

 

 

Haha, as opposed to you who must be incredibly stupid. You missed the bit about being drunk, or have you finally realized those kind of comments just show you up for the sad little spiteful piece of work that you are... You know the one that must make your family so proud. ***t. If my posts really do annoy you so much why the need to respond to every single one of them... It's great mind, to have you as my own little mong board TM stalker... Like some little pet that I can rely for another moronic and inane sound bite.... As a result of you being too fricken thick to every understand what is posted, and lacking the attention span to read more than a sentence... You really are funny as feck ;-)

[hypochondriac]

Haha' date=' as opposed to you who must be incredibly stupid. You missed the bit about being drunk, or have you finally realized those kind of comments just show you up for the sad little spiteful piece of work that you are... You know the one that must make your family so proud. ***t. If my posts really do annoy you so much why the need to respond to every single one of them... It's great mind, to have you as my own little mong board TM stalker... Like some little pet that I can rely for another moronic and inane sound bite.... As a result of you being too fricken thick to every understand what is posted, and lacking the attention span to read more than a sentence... You really are funny as feck ;-)[/quote']

 

Drunk comments have really touched a nerve with you haven't they frankie. You certainly seemed sloshed the other night, maybe you just talk more sh*t than usual in the evening.

[Frank's cousin]

Drunk comments have really touched a nerve with you haven't they frankie. You certainly seemed sloshed the other night, maybe you just talk more sh*t than usual in the evening.

 

Its quite simple you pathetic child. Thankfully I have no alcohol related problems or addictions. But I know people who do. I have worked with people who do, and have seen a good friends life disintegrate because of their illness. If you, Turkish and CB Fry feel it's acceptable and 'funny' to mock such things, well it's shows you up for the ****ty little human beings you are. I may spout a load of ****** on here, I may get a bit precious and OTT, I can and always will be an opinionated bastard and probably quite boring to those who like their discussion or debate in a few words... But at least I ain't a complete c*nt.

[Mallagroth]

Its quite simple you pathetic child. Thankfully I have no alcohol related problems or addictions. But I know people who do. I have worked with people who do' date=' and have seen a good friends life disintegrate because of their illness. If you, Turkish and CB Fry feel it's acceptable and 'funny' to mock such things, well it's shows you up for the ****ty little human beings you are. I may spout a load of ****** on here, I may get a bit precious and OTT, I can and always will be an opinionated bastard and probably quite boring to those who like their discussion or debate in a few words... But at least I ain't a complete c*nt.[/quote']

 

+1 Anyone else like this Frank more than the OP Frank?

[kpturner]

I think you ruined it all with point number 5. Up until that moment it sounded plausible, but then you went into spiteful vitriolic mode and lost the audience.

[CB Fry]

Haha' date=' as opposed to you who must be incredibly stupid. You missed the bit about being drunk, or have you finally realized those kind of comments just show you up for the sad little spiteful piece of work that you are... You know the one that must make your family so proud. ***t. If my posts really do annoy you so much why the need to respond to every single one of them... It's great mind, to have you as my own little mong board TM stalker... Like some little pet that I can rely for another moronic and inane sound bite.... As a result of you being too fricken thick to every understand what is posted, and lacking the attention span to read more than a sentence... You really are funny as feck ;-)[/quote']

 

Someone get his car keys off him.

[Dr Who?]

It was going well. Only time will tell.

[Mallagroth]

Someone get his car keys off him.

 

To be fair you really need some new material sir. Don't be bitter just some friendly advice.

[View From The Top]

Is Frank drunk again?

[hypochondriac]

Is Frank drunk again?

 

Hush. Even if he talks a load of nonsensical gibberish of an evening we aren't allowed to speculate! I thought drunkeness was the most obvious explanation but it seems there must be some other deep psychological issues.

[St_Tel49]

I'm not speculating that there was a conspiracy, I'm suggesting that Manchester United decided to play the long game and took a strategic gamble on Buttner, relying on the fact that we had probably gone to a lot of effort profiling buttner for our team and would retain our interest in future. They were also of course relying on shaws future progression into an outstanding left back. Plus they got some reasonable cover at left back in the meantime. It remains to be seen whether we are still interested in buttner, Adkins has gone, pochettino changed our direction and buttner hasn't covered himself in glory at united.

It is interesting speculation - but is just what it is - speculation!

[Hamilton Saint]

Too long as ever.

 

You could have written 'typically long' - that would have saved two words.

[Manuel]

3.' KL is asset stripping'

 

No, simply not the case. Speculation again, but what she may be doing is selling to remove the liabilities from the books. To me this suggests she may look to sell when the club has no liabilities as this would in theory command a better price than if we had certain players but a debt...why? Because the players are not assets, their value reduces over the length of their contracts to zero, and their value is determined only by what someone is willing to pay... So from business perspective we have more value without debt... May sound obvious, but would explain the apparent willingness to let 3 -5 key players leave.

This would be my speculation too, that KL was unhappy regarding the level of debt (easy to gamble with other people's money) and wants to see the club perform within its means. I can't see much wrong with that...providing we stay up, and with some sort of plan in place. Definitely need a plan; and a manager.

[washsaint]

FC - you made some interesting points until you started with the insults to Kruger. Basically out of order, no need for it and makes you look like a plum.

 

Krugers credibility with you might be zero: does not mean it is with everyone. Far better to judge at Christmas when new guy has been given time and we see how things are going: rather than the knee jerk reactions going on right now. Including posters like Crab Lungs magically pulling a figure of 15 million out of the air as our transfer budget. Based solely on his opinion, yet leapt upon by the doom sayers as proof we are being stripped down.

[Leslie Charteris]

Hush. Even if he talks a load of nonsensical gibberish of an evening we aren't allowed to speculate! I thought drunkeness was the most obvious explanation but it seems there must be some other deep psychological issues.

 

Hypochondriac heal thyself!

[Leslie Charteris]

There has been so much speculation. We only know for sure that Poch has left. SRL seems to be gone but there is no official confirmation. We are holding out for £30m for Adam and Luke according to the media but they are still Saints players as of now. Why not wait and see what actually happens?

[70's Mike]

Board not naive or clueless. They know perfectly well what they are doing....

 

not sure if i should be pleased by that or worried by it

[Batman]

There has been so much speculation. We only know for sure that Poch has left. SRL seems to be gone but there is no official confirmation. We are holding out for £30m for Adam and Luke according to the media but they are still Saints players as of now. Why not wait and see what actually happens?

 

Officially, lambert is still a saint. Nothing been said by the club on that front either

[david in sweden]

My take ;

 

1- Even pretentions to becoming a top four club takes big investment....and a lot of top class follow-up signings to sustain it. Maybe KL didn't realise that when NC was so secretive about activites?

 

2- more income is required all the time. Getting 30k gates at SMS may look impressive to us, but doesn't compare with income from crowds at Old Trafford ..and even Newcastle. Big money signings cost money to maintain. £40K /week salaries mean £2 million year +tax . £20K doesn't sound much in the Prem but it's still a million a year cost. Multiply that by a dozen and you see how dependent we are on TV money.

 

3- I don't think it's reached that point. She's still getting used to the club (after NC leaving) but looking at my comments in point 2, I'd say she's taking a serious look at our ongoing running costs.

Promises to keep players that MP wanted were right -at the time - but since he jumped ship we need to re-evaluate. Lambert transfer to LFC, though sad, is a win-win situation. Shaw/ Lallana inevitable.

 

4- Someone define struggle for me, please. I grew up with Saints being " a middling top club" ....for 27 seasons. IMO- don't expect top half placement in the coming season, but if the new manager does his job well enough maybe..in 2 years. The " Euro dream " was Cortese's vision, and we were happy to bathe in the glory of that vision - in reality it was never really " on " even with MP's squad.

 

5- Lots of fans still see football in the light of "their club" - but many clubs wouldn't still exist if it weren't for people like Abrahamovic, Sheikh " whats-his-name" and the Glazers....and even the Liebherrs who invest their " lunch money" in something else - as a diversion to ordinary business life. I think there is a lot of business acumen in the new Board members - but not a lot of football " nous" . On the face of it, a lot seems to hang on Les Reed - who will either emerge as hero or villian by August.

Edited 2 June, 2014 by david in sweden

[Ohio Saint]

Half-way through point 5 he totally lost the plot and resumed the normal standard for this forum. It made I larf a bit.

 

I think you ruined it all with point number 5. Up until that moment it sounded plausible, but then you went into spiteful vitriolic mode and lost the audience.

 

Point 5 was by far my favourite!

[Secret Site Agent]

A couple of other things you forgot Frank.

 

Mind Reading, and Prediction of the Future.

[Wes Tender]

You could have written 'typically long' - that would have saved two words.

 

:lol: The trouble is, all the words in the original phrase are monosyllabic, whereas "typically" has four and would be straining the mental capacity of those with the attention span of a gnat who complain at the length of Frank's posts. Mind you, those complainants usually spread their thoughts over five or six posts instead of a paragraph or two in one post. Perhaps they find themselves incapable of collecting their thoughts in a short time span and just post whatever enters their minds when things occur to them.

[Aardvark]

Haha' date=' as opposed to you who must be incredibly stupid. You missed the bit about being drunk, or have you finally realized those kind of comments just show you up for the sad little spiteful piece of work that you are... You know the one that must make your family so proud. ***t. If my posts really do annoy you so much why the need to respond to every single one of them... It's great mind, to have you as [b']my own little mong board TM stalker[/b]... Like some little pet that I can rely for another moronic and inane sound bite.... As a result of you being too fricken thick to every understand what is posted, and lacking the attention span to read more than a sentence... You really are funny as feck ;-)

 

For someone who gets on their high horse concerning others' lack of empathy concerning those with alcohol related problems, surely your use of the term "mong" really takes the biscuit for double standards.

[Frank's cousin]

For someone who gets on their high horse concerning others' lack of empathy concerning those with alcohol related problems, surely your use of the term "mong" really takes the biscuit for double standards.

 

It should have been in quotation marks - as it was a point on the offensive use of that words that I was trying to make... Apologies for this , to be clear, I find the term equally offensive and unnecessary.

 

with respect to my comment on Ralph. Re his lack of credibility - we in effect sold a player the day after he stated public ally we would wait until the new manager is in place....and now he states a get out clause.. Now it may well be right that there are unique circumstances around RLs transfer, but an experienced chairman, would or should not make statements that don't allow for these situations... In effect it exposes him to accusations of misleading us.

 

finally, Ohio, I liked your suggestion for how to spend the '50mil' ;-)

[ALWAYS_SFC]

It should have been in quotation marks - as it was a point on the offensive use of that words that I was trying to make... Apologies for this , to be clear, I find the term equally offensive and unnecessary.

 

with respect to my comment on Ralph. Re his lack of credibility - we in effect sold a player the day after he stated public ally we would wait until the new manager is in place....and now he states a get out clause.. Now it may well be right that there are unique circumstances around RLs transfer, but an experienced chairman, would or should not make statements that don't allow for these situations... In effect it exposes him to accusations of misleading us.

 

finally, Ohio, I liked your suggestion for how to spend the '50mil' ;-)

 

Well put, i have been trying to say that but with less success...thanks

[david in sweden]

surely all these statements about not selling players (which is inevitable given time ) .....were meant to placate MP and try to keep him at SMS....that said... it didn't work.

 

With a new manager on the horizon he surely would not be looking to build a team and plan it around Rickie Lambert... In time RL would have been a regular on the bench and given way to a new name.

Had it not been for Rickie's England career blossoming last Autumn, we wouldn't even be discussing the matter, BR wouldn't have bid for him and he'd still be on his way out this season ..or next..

 

The truth of the matter is that Rickie 's international career is just starting .....at at an age when many others are in decline.

 

The " new manager " doesn't have to worry about ....what to do with Rickie....and will make his own team choices without the fear of upsetting many fans, by having to plan without / around him.

 

In some ways, it's a sensible decision and a win-win situation. We'd all expected RL to stay until the (eventual) nightmare ending of his wonderful Saints career, whereas now he will have a dream ending

by playing for his home club in a squad that is very promising and will plaay CL next season. Considering the great service RL has given to Saints ....who amongst us would deny him that ?.

 

Now that MP has gone...we will build the squad on those who want to stay and play..the others (who don't want to) are best out of it...albeit for £30 million ....or a free transfer.

Edited 2 June, 2014 by david in sweden