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Odds for Relegation next season...


Unbelievable Jeff
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I'll be having a tenner on that. And that is not knee jerk. We are about to lose Lambert (our 2nd highest goal scorer last season), most likely Lallana and our top scorer is out until the end of the year. That is 37 goals and 19 assists we must find replacements for. That is not going to come cheap.

 

In this league you need goals to survive. Norwich who weren't all that bad at the back last season, could not score goals and that is why they went down. Without RL, AL & JR I do not see where our goals are going to come from.

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I'll be having a tenner on that. And that is not knee jerk. We are about to lose Lambert (our 2nd highest goal scorer last season), most likely Lallana and our top scorer is out until the end of the year. That is 37 goals and 19 assists we must find replacements for. That is not going to come cheap.

 

In this league you need goals to survive. Norwich who weren't all that bad at the back last season, could not score goals and that is why they went down. Without RL, AL & JR I do not see where our goals are going to come from.

Add to that you will need to integrate a lot of new players

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You'd be throwing your money away to bet on Southampton going down next season. Are people assuming that we're just going to sell without making effective replacements? The scouting network at this club has surfaced gems in Lovren and (arguably) Wanyama, so I trust that they wouldn't' have any trouble next season. And as someone so rightly said above - the three teams being promoted are much much worse than Southampton, as are a handful of others currently in the PL.

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You'd be throwing your money away to bet on Southampton going down next season. Are people assuming that we're just going to sell without making effective replacements? The scouting network at this club has surfaced gems in Lovren and (arguably) Wanyama, so I trust that they wouldn't' have any trouble next season. And as someone so rightly said above - the three teams being promoted are much much worse than Southampton, as are a handful of others currently in the PL.

We struggled to beat BUrnley last season and. Leicester will be decent,QPR will spend to stay up The league is stronger than last

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You'd be throwing your money away to bet on Southampton going down next season. Are people assuming that we're just going to sell without making effective replacements? The scouting network at this club has surfaced gems in Lovren and (arguably) Wanyama, so I trust that they wouldn't' have any trouble next season. And as someone so rightly said above - the three teams being promoted are much much worse than Southampton, as are a handful of others currently in the PL.

 

But presently we just don't know what Southampton will look like player-wise next season. Why are we selling if we aim to do like for like replacements? Ain't gonna happen. No way will we be anywhere near as strong on Sept 1st as we were on May 1st at this rate.

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But presently we just don't know what Southampton will look like player-wise next season. Why are we selling if we aim to do like for like replacements? Ain't gonna happen. No way will we be anywhere near as strong on Sept 1st as we were on May 1st at this rate.

 

I'm not sure I understand your second point, but I completely agree with you that the situation at the moment is uncertain and that it's unlikely we will be as strong in September than we were in May. However, this doesn't doom us to relegation at all.

 

Rather, Southampton are in a very strong position to reinvest with a new manager that can promote his own vision and secure us European qualification (or so the board say) while also keeping the core of the team. This is a situation other teams such as QPR and Leicester don't find themselves in. They are obligated to spend just to stay afloat in the PL. Therefore, you could argue that both teams are making wholesale changes but Saints from a drastically stronger position. And that isn't even taking into account the whole host of other underachieving teams in the PL - West Brom and Swansea - who don't have the means to bolster significant parts of their squad. Is it likely that Hull might repeat their previous tenure in the PL?

 

What I'm trying to say is that there are too many variables indicating a Saints survival next season. That may be in 17th place, but so what - survival in any position means that a bet on relegation is wasted. There's a reason why the odds for Saints relegation are as there are right now.

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You'd be throwing your money away to bet on Southampton going down next season. Are people assuming that we're just going to sell without making effective replacements? The scouting network at this club has surfaced gems in Lovren and (arguably) Wanyama, so I trust that they wouldn't' have any trouble next season. And as someone so rightly said above - the three teams being promoted are much much worse than Southampton, as are a handful of others currently in the PL.

 

Those players came to a club with ambition. If we sell all the players being touted we won't be able to get replacements of the same standard. I'm waiting for more signs of if this is a fire sale before betting though.

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The point is the players we are selling are proven goal scorers in the PL - they could easily get replaced with the likes of Osvaldo and Gastons - expensive imports that fail to cope with the PL

 

Exactly. Osvaldo scored twice in half a season. Say we replace Lambert with somebody who scores 4 goals over a whole season. We'll be in deep trouble.

 

Look at what a flop (and an expensive one at that) Van Wolfswinkel has been for Norwich.

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Do they?

 

Last season: Chelsea (10) transfers, Hull (13) Palace (19), Liverpool (8 ), Sunderland (17) Everton (10), Stoke (8 )

 

You missed Spurs.

 

P.S. How come you were allowed back? Did you have to make certain promises?

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Let's get real here we've lost Lambert, probably Lallana and Shaw maybe one other as key players. That will leave us with a region of £60m. We'll have a new manager with a decent sized transfer budget. Look at the dross that finished below us. People need to chill. Let's see who the manager is first before predicting relegation.

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Any team that tries to integrate 5 or 6 first team players at once always seem to struggle

 

Spot on

 

We will get off to our historical bad start in the top Division (last year was unusual) and then have to make up ground as new players/manager become bedded in

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We were 150-1 before MP left. Wish I'd had a bit of that!

 

 

No we weren't, we were 14/1, remember mentioning it in some context, 400/1 to win the PL and only 14/1 to go down. 8th favourite to win the league 12th (ie 20-8) favourite to go down. That's halved now I think.

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Only once I can think of. When Pompey were all but down and signed half a new team in January including d'alessandro.

 

I think it can work at the bottom because you don't need consistency, just to grab a few wins. But it'll never work in giving you a decent overall season.

 

Pompey looked down and out until arry wheeled and dealed. He's right a old sort our arry.

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